Members Results Update 2019

2019 Results update/review

2019 Results/Review

(you can find my results spreadsheet HERE>>>)

In all honesty 2019 has been mediocre, poor and in general just a bit naff. Years like this happen but it’s never pleasant even when on the back of a decent 2018, but that’s not much comfort in the grand scheme of things. Poor years do happen and will do again, that’s the reality of betting on horses and it’s a game for long term eyes. 

If I look at my ‘tipping’ first…

The Main Tips 

These focus on 3m+ handicap chases, C4+. The reality is that before 22nd Feb 2019 or so my head was all over the place for various reasons – I was trying to do too much and spread myself too thin when it came to race analysis.

In 2019 for main tips: 

165 tips / 24 wins / 49p / 14.5% win SR / +16.8 points / 10% ROI 

From Feb 22nd when I decided that the main tips should just focus on 3m+ chases…

150 bets / 24 wins / 49p / 16% SR / +32.6 points / 22% ROI 

I’m now recording results to BFSP also, with those figures to generally available morning odds when posted, and available for at least 30 mins after posted. 

All in all it was a mediocre year with the main tips. I’d like them to be averaging at least +50 points per year. Since the start of Sept 2019 to the end of the year i’ve found 10 second places with many going close and a few making bad errors late on. That’s racing but had 3/4 of those won then it would have been a decent year, esp the ROI. This is a game of fine margins at times, that evens out over time. 

Onto the Festival/Big Race Tips

These are always more volatile and had a stellar 2018, pulling in +143 points. 2018 was in part a reaction to those heady heights, with a silly ROI

2019

99 bets / 6 wins / 27p / 6% win SR / -45.8 points 

A poor year here but that sort of poor run isn’t a surprise in these big festivals/race types, when I’m often playing 12s/14s+ shots. Had 2018s porift been spread over two years it would look great, but alas, sadly it rarely happens like that. Still, thats not a reason to be complacent and there’s work to do there, as there is generally. My tipping profit usually comes in spikes, as it has done historically. 

The overall picture is fine and in general I’m happy with my historical results –

Since the start of 2014 my 3m+ handicap chase tips and Festival tips have pulled in around +460 points to the end of 2019, averaging around +77 points per year, which is solid. Sadly 2019 didn’t hit those heights and i’ll be working hard in 2020 to make sure I do much better. 

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Stats/Strategies 

Advised Strategies

It wasn’t a great year for these either sadly. 

In 2018 Flat S6 (Strategy 6), Jumps S1 and S3A# had a superb year but alas 2019 didn’t live up to those heady heights. 

2019

Flat S6 : 138 bets / 13 wins / 32p / -7.55 points 

Jumps S1: 123 bets / 10 wins / 21p / -9.15 points

(Jumps S1 had a 14/1 – 19.9/1 BFSP winner in early Jan to lift the mood) 

Jumps S3A#: 97 bets / 17 wins / 41p / -21.175 points 

So, not much to sing about on that front and I’ll hope for a return to the profits of 2018. If nothing else those qualifiers are still a decent ‘way in’ , as are a few other strategies that had a great 2019, including >>>

Jumps S1 and Flat S6 are big odds strategies and they may well bounce back big in 2020. 

 

Of possible interest in 2020 >>>

2019 results >>>

Flat S4 : 109 bets / 27 wins / 51p / +35 points

Jumps S4: 151 bets / 40 wins / 81p / +35.56 points 

Jumps W2: 247 bets / 50 wins / 87p / +33.21 points 

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So, that’s 2019. Not a great year. 

While I always think I can be doing better with my tipping, I’m confident in my approach long term. I’ll be working hard for a decent 2020. I would like my tipping efforts to average +80 points across a calendar year and that’s something for me to aim for. While tipping is only one element of my content, in reality it’s the bit that most people will use to judge success, and 2020 needs to be better than 2019! Still, there’s much to get stuck into and absorb. 

Josh 

 

 

 

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