Members Daily Post: 09/01/19 (complete 10am)

Tip x1 + write up, test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/6,1p, -0.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.40 Catt – PICKAMIX – 1 point win – 9/1 (Lad/Coral) 17/2 (betF) 8/1 (BV)  UP 14/1 – the market appeared to be some indication of this one’s chance – it was a poor effort, both from the horse and rider for me for various reasons, not that it mattered. Maybe he really needs decent ground and i’ll keep an eye on him. Taking on Little Bruce proved to be futile and he won it very well, which was always a danger as per notes below. Moving on. 

as of 09.09, that’s all for today, write up below…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/7, 2p; -7)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

No TTP Qualifiers on Thursday. 

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TTP Chase Angles 2019/20

1.10 Leic – Massini Man (8/1<) G3 6/1 

(Leicester now abandoned) 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

2.15 Leic – Holly Flight (11/1<) I3 G1 20/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Incase you’ve missed them:-

Micro Monday post HERE>>>

Tracker Tuesday post HERE>>>

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NEW: Results Update 2019 HERE>>>

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2.40 Catt – 

Pickamix is a risky one here but I thought he was worth  a go at around 8s in what looks a poor renewal of this race – at the prices he’s the most interesting in here by some way – he PU on his last start at Chelt on his first run in 385 days but ran with promise for a long way, obviously in a much better race than this. He took it up at one stage and indicated that soft was fine, which is a question also (as it is for a few in here). He’s got some solid form in the book and in this line up is lightly raced over fences – his staying on effort in an ok C3 at Cheltenham over 25f a couple of years back suggested that 3m6f could be up his street, especially around here. He clearly has questions to answer, but if he didn’t and say he arrived into this on the back of a staying on 3rd, with proven form at the trip/ground, he’d be put in at 4s. 

The jockey booking is interesting given he’s 2/5,3p all rides here in last 5 years and 2/7,3p when riding for Charlie Mann. Mann is also 10/56, 20p, +35 in jumps marathons in recent years, the likes of Morney Wing indicating he knows what he’s doing, and knows when his horses are worth a go over an extreme trip. 

So, hopefully he bounces out and tracks the pace, and is clearly travelling/happy in himself through the first half – if he is, he should give us something to cheer up the home straight, and we shall see if he relishes the trip/the reason for improvement, or not. 

Of the rest…

Well I don’t like anything else at the odds at all. 

Little Bruce is a worthy fav but he is 10lb above his last win and does need to step forward – he does have it to prove in soft over fences also but does stay well, stamina shouldn’t be a problem. I suspect this has been the plan – he isn’t the biggest but is a bonny little sort who jumps out and wears his heart on his sleeve. But I can’t be with him at 2s and am happy to take him on. Clearly I won’t fall off my seat if he won this well. 

The rest have plenty of questions, esp at their prices. 

I can leave Sumkindofking – i’ve stamina doubts and general form questions. Brian Boranha didn’t look overpriced either and he does have ground questions and form questions. He needs more although Hughes may get something out of him. He can be ridden too patiently for my liking also. 

Manwell has real stamina questions also, having yet to win further than 19f and I can leave him on that basis. Maybe he will relish it but i’d want to see more over further first. 

The rest…well they all have the ability to take this, if looking far enough back, but at  ages11, 11 and 13 I can leave them. I’m not sure Chase The Wind wants soft and he needs more, with stamina questions also. Milansbar looks gone at the game I think, aged 13, but he must still be showing enthusiasm at home. The Neil King yard have been under a cloud for an age but have recently fired in a couple of winners and could be a yard worth following. He last ran when they were under the weather. If he wins it so be it, i’ll doff my cap to him, but not for me, even at 12s. Kingswell Theatre may go well but again he’s not getting any younger and needs more. He’s looking well handicapped though esp with the excellent Jack Tudor’s 7lb coming off. But at 7s or so I was happy to leave. 

IF Little Bruce and the selection fluff their lines then it does become open and in truth you wouldn’t be shocked if any of them went close to some degree. But I do think Pickamix is the most interesting and could take this well if it all clicks. 

Pace wise… Little Bruce will try and lead, Chase The Wind may be up there as will Milansbar and Kingswell Theatre – it could be some dash ‘relatively’ over the first few furlongs before settling down. Jerry M should have enough pace to sit behind and he should have no problem holding a position in this line up, if on song. Fingers crossed. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. not much to enthuse about today so just some £1 ew singles and a 10p ew L15.
    leicester
    1-10. Shanroe Tic Tec
    Catterick
    1-00. Little Millie
    3-10. Never Be Enough
    3-45. I’m Too Generous
    of the rest i’ve chucked a £1 on Hopes Wishes L2-15 just in case a wind op and first time tongue tie work a miracle and the reappearence of old boy Sunny Ledgend after 20 months off in the 3-20 is a bit of a mind boggler at 15yo.

    1. also i wouldn’t dismiss the ew chances of Top Gamble L2-50 and over at Newcastle the only one on the card i found interesting was Kodi Koh in the 3-30.

    2. with Leicester off , Never Be Enough a n/r and the change in going i’ve gone for these at Catterick to add to the 2 above that are still running.
      1-35. Ask Paddy
      3-10. Snowed In

  2. Following on from Colin’s comments on stables and bookmaker sponsorship i’m pretty sure there will be no crackdown on bookies by the Government when MP’s received an estimated £22 million worth of corporate hospitality to major sporting events from bookmakers last year.

    1. Last i heard Martin was over 70% of benifits to MPs came from bookmakers, did not realise it came to such a staggering ammount.
      It is time BHA got there act together and stopped giving raceecourse permits to trade on course, so no advertising via TV so their company would take a hit, and i would start with PP with all their under hand advertising, but dont hold your breath for they are as useful has a chocolate fire guard.
      Notice our gambling MP is rather quite, no doubt he/she is down in South Africa enjoying the cricket!!!
      starter for 10 who is it?
      Colin

      1. Wasn’t able to participate on here yesterday due to other non racing commitments, but couldn’t agree more with you regarding bookies overt connections with yards and as another poster pointed out, jockeys too. Let’s face it Frankie’s not doing so bad at the moment either. How many Group 1 winners last season? Does he really need the beer money for doing the ad’? I don’t think so!

        Tim

        1. I suspect it’s more than beer money Tim haha – wouldn’t be shocked if that contract is £250K + a season/year or whatever, if not a hell of a lot more. He won’t be a jockey forever and has a large family – you can’t blame him for getting stuck in while he can, if the offers are there, and the rules are as they are now.

  3. COLINS BETS
    6.00 Chelmsford Homesick Boy 3/1

    TIP TOP
    12.45 Newcastle Bay Of Naples 8/1
    3.30 Newcastle Corked 4/1

    ARUBA
    1.55 Newcastle Dark Regard 7/2
    3.30 Newcastle Corked 4/1

    FAVOURED
    2.25 Newcastle Tathmeen 4/1
    3.10 Catterick Nefyn Point 7/2

    MAX BETS
    3.30 Newcastle Corked 4/1

  4. I don’t, and have never understood, some of the anti bookmaking brigade on this site – I mean by all means be anti corporate greed/big business in general, and plenty there to get stuck into inc bookies – but given the game we are playing and our engagement with racing, being anti bookmaker seems a bit strange to me. We would all have to look for something else to occupy ourselves with if we banned bookmakers, which Colin would probably do tomorrow if he could haha.
    There would be no horse racing in UK/Ireland. End of.

    There are clearly issues but I wouldn’t say governments introducing £2 casino limits etc is an indication of MPs being in their pockets – clearly more needs to be done with problem gambling and some of their practices are abhorrent with certain ‘high value’ individuals who may well have addictions/be ill/need help.
    But that shouldn’t detract from the vast majority who bet responsibly. Humans have always had vices, and if it wasn’t gambling for some, it would be something else. Although there are clearly some big issues on gambling addiction that gvt and betting companies could be doing much more on.
    It’s a big positive for those of us who enjoy racing for MPs to have a vested interest in the sport – especially with whats coming down the line in terms of the whip / animals rights agenda etc etc. The more MPs that understand the sport the better and bookmaking is big part of our game.

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    That’s one complex area of debate where some of us would just go around in circles on these pages. There’s valid opinions on all sides of that one and no ‘right’ answer.

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    Bookmakers and Trainer/jockey sponsorship is a ripe area for discussion on here, and indications are that it’s an issue that will be discussed more by the sport/powers that be.

    Ralph Beckett’s article on RP makes plenty of sense – that idea of just ending all sponsorships so there isn’t even a question of integrity etc.

    As an aside… IF one of the main concerns is ‘inside information’ and bookmakers profiting from it (which when it comes to these high profile trainers etc I think is generally bollocks – doesn’t make logical sense in my head and if anything would lead to more transparency) – lets say all these relationships ended. IF that inside information was the drive, are we really to believe that such links wouldn’t continue but just not publicly?? Trainers can back their own horses and many have accounts with X bookmakers, and that’s information bookmakers get – what do we think happened 20/30 years ago? It’s naive to think that bookmakers wouldn’t find out such info if they so wanted. I suspect to some degree that may have always happened, although I do think we can overestimate such things.

    Now, I quite like all these trainer / jockey blogs, as something interesting to read and they are often informative – I think our enjoyment of the sport would be a lot less were such blogs to not exist.

    The issue is how to manage them esp with sensitive information re running plans/injuries. Barry Orr and Betfair seem to have the right approach and want their colleagues to take a stronger stance/have rules in place…

    quote –

    The likes of Gordon Elliott, Paul Nicholls and Joseph O’Brien are Betfair ambassadors, and Orr said: “Last year we made a conscious decision not to break any news concerning injuries, or any market-sensitive information, from our ambassadors.

    “The procedure we agreed with them is for the ambassador to inform Weatherbys, who send that information out, and then they make the information public themselves before they even get in contact with us. That system works very well for us and we don’t think it’s at all right for us to be breaking that news.

    “We think the time is right for other bookmakers to re-evaluate how they approach this as the perception is increasingly negative. We are keen to engage with other bookmakers who have ambassadors to look at drawing up a code of conduct around this to make sure there are no grey areas about how the relationships work.”

    – to me that seems sensible – and preferable to these blogs just not existing.

    But maybe some on here think those muddy waters are too murky and would prefer less information, as delivered via those blogs, to be in the public domain. Without the sponsorship, why would the trainers etc bother – out of the goodness of their heart?? The sport is richer for these relationships I think, but there are clearly issues that need working through.

    The Altior situation is clearly a complicated one, and needs exploring and the yard have form –

    BUT – if the issue is people in the yard profiting from being ‘in the know’ – ie they knew he would be a NR, so they all piled into Top Notch – before the info was made clear – (i don’t think there was any liquidity on the exchanges for laying purposes – and if anyone in yard got caught doing that they’d be warned off) – well surely such behaviour has been going on forever?? I think the sport in this country is long past ‘just’ having a Tote system, which means we will always have bookies – and there will always be people privy in yards who are ‘in the know’ –
    although saying that with such a high profile horse you’d think Hendo would keep the info to himself and the owner – maybe the owners associates dived into Top Notch. That sort of thing will always go on in some yards I think .

    How the information in this case was made public does stink – what Barry Orr/Betfair do with their big boys seems to be the solution to that problem.

    In the end, there is no perfect solution to any of these issues, and one side or the other isn’t good vs evil – but there would appear to be plenty that could be improved.
    But i’m not in the camp that thinks ending all such relationships/blogs etc is some magic solution, esp when it comes to questions of integrity etc. But who knows.

    Maybe i’m naive but I don’t think many jockeys who are sponsored will be ringing up their bookie contact on the day, informing them that they’re stopping one today! But maybe i’m wrong on that.

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    Anyway, just a few of my thoughts – plenty there to agree or disagree with no doubt! 🙂
    Josh

    1. (I may repeat that comment in free post in a moment, so if you wish to comment or any thought’s, reply in there- it’s a good topic for discussion)

  5. AW T/T

    No winners yesterday, 2 NRs as well.

    12.15 N Nataleena
    1.20 N Blazing Dreams
    3.30 N Melgate Majeure
    4.00 C Haddaf
    Luner Deity

    Apologies for the late post thought I had pressed the POST button last night.

    Mike

  6. Losing Leicester doesn’t leave much this afternoon…..

    Catt’ 2.40 Sumkindofking…………… SPR 3 – 6
    Catt’ 3.45 Yesnomaybeso……………. SPR 5 – 8

    Back at 3.30 with Chelmsford.

  7. Josh
    I do not wish for all bookmakers to be removed from the racecourse why would i when i am running a subscription service and they bet via the bookmakers.
    Lets take a trip down memory lane not sure about correct dates, before bookmakers were legalised you had to go to a private house and knock on the door where he would take your bet illegally, late 1960s or early 70s
    bookmaking was legalised and this is where the Racing industry got it so wrong by letting the bookmakers start taking over control of racing and paying the racing peanuts for the rights to set out their stalls on the courses all they have done is TAKE from racing and give little in return ie Ladbrokes built up a chain of hotels, which if i am correct they were bought by Hilton.
    This is my major gripe about bookmakers when over the years many smaller trainers have gone out of buisness because of the small winning prize money not talking about Cheltenham, Ascot etc, take Catterick today tad over £4000 to the winner where jockeys, trainers( not upto date but the last i heard was 10%)fees had to come out then travel costs also along with paying extra staff extra to travel with the horse or horses also vet fees for putting on racing plates, Southwell races are worth £2000, trainer £200, no wonder they struggle to pay the staff.
    Trainers percentage is say £400 after paying the staff and any other items there is not alot left and these trainers do not have many winners over the season because of the quality of horse they can attract alongside not the wealthiest owners.
    When the clueless idiots who ran racing in the late 60s/70s allowed the bookmakers to fleece racing this is why i cannot stand them.
    For me yes Racing should refuse ONE of the major bookmakers to stand at the courses and hopefully it would send shock waves through the rest, and make them invest more into racing and that ONE for me would be PP or 365 who she has paid herself over £300 million which in my view most should be in racing.
    Said before about Mafia Ladbokes in the early 90s when they paid a mate visit and offered him a fair price for his 3 shops and he was told if you do not accept we will open Ladbrokes shops as close to you as we can and with our offers we will put you out of buissness he had to accept even though he did not want to sell.
    He now as 30 pitches on different racecoures and his name is ADRIAN SMITH so when you are at a meeting have a look for him and ask him what he thinks about the big bookmakers!
    Corruption in jockeys will always go on for one reason if for winning a race they recieve only £200 for winning the race and a bookmakers representive as a brown envelope with £5000 in for some lowly paid jockeys will accept the envelope, and it does not take many bets at Evens for the bookmaker to make a killing knowing the Fav cannot win.
    PLEASE read this article a couple of times before hitting your keyboard trying to put me down for racing in all aspects as been my life, from competing at show jumping, cross country riding on the gallops, always stopping with Dai Williams then down at Great Shefford near Lambourn, when he had 80 plus horses in training.
    On a lighter note the four of us went to Newbury chinese after Ascot races where Ketti’s owner Mike had a grand on at 4/1 i managed to get £20 on which was a massive bet for me in the early 90s and she lost.
    Anyway Dai whispered in my ear do you know who you are sat next too, it turned out it was Ben De’han who had won the Grand National around 4 weeks earlier, anyway with my meal there was an whole carrot which had been carved into a shrimp with all the fine whiskers it was amazing, well as Ben and his wife got up to leave he said can they have the carrot for the kids, so it was goodbye to £20 and a carrot for me.
    Cheers
    Colin

      1. I know that and i meant to put HA HA, but the point is racings idiot elite allowed the bookmakers to fleece the industry from the start and nothing as changed since the inception of BHA who concentrate on the whip issue and the modern whip does not hurt the horse it is the swishing sound that worries the horse.
        Other week a journalist was whipped on his hand and he did not flinch, so why do they not put this silly issue to bed and concentrate on the real concerns of racing.
        Just in case HA HA HA HA only joking
        Cheers
        Colin

  8. Lets take a trip down memory lane not sure about correct dates, before bookmakers were legalised you had to go to a private house and knock on the door where he would take your bet illegally, late 1960s or early 70s
    This made me chuckle…my grandad was one of these people, my Dad used to run around the flats in Camberwell collecting and paying out the bet money. My grandad worked at a well know newspaper and had a desk set up with a banner overhead and would take bets there too, no one would say a word as he was a very good boxer, trained a couple of twin brothers back in the day ahem!…he then applied to the court for a licence with a few of the eastends notorious gangsters…my dad said the judge said “i will grant you all this licence if you promise to behave yourselves” lol

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