Members Daily Post: 08/01/20 (complete:09.28)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/5,1p, +0.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.15 Lud – MARBLE MOON – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP 4/1… well he went off the price I though he should be, and ran like a 20s+ shot… that was over before the tapes went up, circled out the back, held up – one of those where your heart sinks esp after having been backed. No idea whats going on there, maybe getting mark down and/or they know he’s not the same at home, so a good time to handicap him before a break/returning in the spring. The winner drifted and did it well enough, I can live with that one at the prices, tipped LTO at 8s or so. Another Stowaway has ran a cracker, 1st CP coinciding with a more positive ride, and he’s enjoyed himself. Clearly has more chases in him on that evidence, possibly just outstayed. 3m, no worse that GS, and the same tactics, may see him return to the winners enclosure. Losers are never fun, esp when you get no run for your money/writing is on the wall from early on, but that’s the sort of result I can just about live with. 

that’s all for main tips, as of 08.45, write up at bottom of post 

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/7, 2p; -7)

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ludlow

1.15 –

Rolling Dylan (all Hc’s) 14ES+ H1 G3 10/3 S3A# UP

Diplomate Sivola (all Hc’s) 14 ES+ 7/2 S3A UP

1.45 –

Dolphin Square (all Hc’s) 14w2 ES+ H1 I3 7/4 S3A# WON 7/4 

Carrolls Milan (HcH) H3 I3 5/1 2nd 

Treasure Dylan (micro -class) I1 G3 4/1 UP

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20 

1.15 Lud – Dragon DEstruval (10/1<) H3 I1 G1 7/4  WON 7/4>3/1 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

1.15 Lud – Irish Octave I3  14/1UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW Tracker Tuesday Post/Video HERE>>>

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Tips write up…

Marble Moon…

7s just seems to big in this line up to my eyes. It’s one of those where you look through a race, look at the market, and just think it’s wrong. I’ve some history with this horse, having tipped him to success at Bangor at a nice price, leaving him twice at Ludlow and then tipping him LTO at Wincanton at a big price, where he ran a shocker. I’m not sure what happened there, but he never looked happy, and was never really put into the race. I wonder if he was just flat after what was a big effort at Ludlow in awful ground the time before. Wedge was static out the back for much of the race and maybe he just felt nothing underneath him, for a horse he knows well. I expected him to race up there but he jumped off and was at the back within a couple of fences. He was never that aggressive with him either. He’s had 34 days to freshen up and returns to a course that he likes. He’s a prolific winner who never wins by far, meaning its hard to know if the handicapper has him or now. His defeat of Beau Du Brizais here off 2lb lower looks ok form in this line up. (recording a career best RPR of 126 which gives some hope that 123 may still underestimate him) He did that cosily come the line and it could have been much further. His run here two starts back was decent in conditions. Conor Ring was on him that day in ground that was atrocious, it won’t be anywhere near as bad today which is a plus for him. He had the well handicapped Bobo Mac in front of him there, who’s run well since and bumped into one himself on his last start. Lord Getaway didn’t do much on his next start but Shanroe In Milan was behind and he won at Musselburgh recently. 

Part of his appeal at the prices at that I don’t think this is a great race – or more so i’m not convinced that anything above him in the market is chucked in/well handicapped. There’s no throughly unexposed/could be anything type in this line up. 

Dragon DEstruval – I fancied him  (tipped) at Sandown, in the void race, where he ran well for a long way before cutting out very quickly. I’m not sure if it was stamina, maybe it was. But he’s had a wind op a few starts back and he’s now got 1st CP. That was a hard enough race up to that point also and the general level of his form now has some questions. 26f around here maybe what he wants and this is weaker than LTO, but 7/4 isn’t overpriced, and it’s not like he’s a LTO winner who bolted up and is clearly still thrown in. He doesn’t look well handicapped off 140 and does need more. I want to take him on and if he wins this well then so be it. 

Roolling Dylan isn’t one i’d like to take a short price on and at 3s I want to take him on – he doesn’t win often enough although is looking well handicapped – but he’s a bit of a monkey – IF mine runs his race and is prominent as I expect, i’d back mine to outbattle him after the last when eye to eye. He needs delivering to perfection – he does try and isn’t ‘a dog’ but just seems to go a bit soft late on if he has to fight, and it could come down to a head bob. I can see the case for him and the yard are going well. But I don’t like his price and given his win record, I’ll take him on also. 

Diplomate Sivola isn’t looking well handicapped either and was too easily brushed aside LTO for me, having been able to dictate in a two horse race. I suppose he’s solid to a point but 9/2 didn’t look big enough to my eyes. 

In reality it’s a race where they’ve all got a question or two and I didn’t like the top three at their prices, and I don’t like the other three either – big prices, all with a few too many questions for me. Another Stowaway – I keep thinking he’s got a chase or two in him this season but he’s been a bit poor- maybe he really does need top of the ground and could be one for the spring, when he could be well handicapped. He’s just been too poor on recent runs to support. 

Pace/running style… I suspect Wedge will try and be aggressive again in this smaller field – he doesn’t have to lead and may well track Maxwell if he goes forward. He should be in a no excuses position and will hopefully be the one to pass approaching the last. We shall see what happens after that. It could be he’s gone to the well a few too many times now and needs a break, but 7s allows the play in this line up. I didn’t think he should be bigger than 4s / 9/2 in this. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • AW T/T
    8 runners for Wed. Feast or Famine.

    1.00 N Calevade…B Haslam Hcp…7/1
    4.00 N Blindingly…B Haslam Hcp…9/1
    4.30 N Fortamour…B Haslam Hcp…5/2
    Chosen World…J Camacho Dist…5/1
    4.15 K Sherella…J Jenkins T/J Dist…6/1
    5.15 K Holy Eleanor…A Watson Hcp…11/2
    6.15 K Mobham…J Jenkins T/J…9/1
    7.45 K Hassaad…A Watson Am Hcp…9/2

    All odds are from 365.

    Mike

    mickeydee 07/01/20 8:34 PM Reply


  • ARUBA
    No bet
    + 27.25

    MAX BET
    No bet
    + 14.75

    cleafe 08/01/20 8:46 AM Reply


    • you’re flying along Colin, well done. I’ll be interested to see how the ‘max bets’ do – could be a fascinating approach for those who may enjoy less action etc 🙂 – if they’re different methods, but with some similarities, logically they may do very well.

      Those results above – are they for 2020? or since you started posting them?

      And we’ve four methods now? Colins Bets, Tip Top (top/high in weights!), Aruba and Max Bet?

      Keep up the great work, it’s appreciated.
      Josh

      Josh 08/01/20 8:56 AM Reply


      • All results are for 2020
        TIP TOP was first put up on 1st October
        OCT +9.77
        Nov + 5.625
        Dec + 9.625
        Jan + 12.25 so far
        Remember it is over 20 years ago when i came up with this method and so still a learning curve for me at the moment and once again expect it to perform better when the ground becomes good or gd/fm, all my methods are starting point only and do go over form, draw and especially going.
        ARUBA
        Always had confidence over this one but got the rules wrong early doors and in December it lost – 16.292 points and again blame the heavy going and myself for putting them up, began to doubt the method so started recording January for myself which i did put a message on the site to this effect, and sods law it as come out flying so will put them up and see how it goes.

        All my methods are so simple and all take about 10/15 mins to find the bets and decide if to back them.
        Learnt a lesson and now writing the methods down for my son, but again the final decission to back the bet comes down to my knowledge and experience, from possible bets today kicked two out because drawn high at Kempton, yes they can win but for myself not worth the risk at the prices.
        Colin.

        cleafe 08/01/20 9:33 AM Reply


      • Hi Colin,

        Sorry for the late reply. Jeezo, looks like I have opened a can of worms here and now everyone is praising you

        Im not much of regular poster but I felt I had to let you know that you are doing a great job with these systems……got to give credit where its due and all that, and its very well deserved in your case. Another absolutely cracking day today

        Thanks again for sharing, much appreciated!

        warriorman9 08/01/20 2:27 PM Reply


        • ha, a can of worms is a negative!! This is a positive. Colin’s efforts have always been appreciated but some of us (me!) could be more forthcoming with such praise every now and then, but I blame Colin for being a permanent fixture! 🙂 And also in the context we do like a good humoured spar about the game in general every now and then! And everyone likes to know such efforts are appreciated, as they should. It can spur you on and ensures X are not just talking into a void. But irregular posters/members popping up and saying so is always appreciated.

          Josh 08/01/20 2:41 PM Reply


  • TIP TOP
    5.45 Kempton Qaseeda 5/2
    Jan + 12.25

    FAVOURED
    6.45 Kempton Soldier’s Minute 2/1
    Jan – 4.417

    LAY
    No selections today.
    well yesterday won with all the the 3 mentions should have been 4 for kicked out seenanythingyoulike but forgot to put it up but as only watching this for i am clueless on laying however that is 6 from 6 in 2 days.
    Just wanted to show you how kicking out bets from my methods could be another avenue into beating the bookmakers.
    Colin

    Colin

    cleafe 08/01/20 10:17 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet
    Jan + 0.75
    Colin

    cleafe 08/01/20 10:53 AM Reply


  • Hi Colin just wanted to say that I really appreciate all you post on this superb site. Your cautious approach regarding ground etc doesn’t go unnoticed. In the past you have advised me regarding betting bank size and steps I should take to help it grow, much appreciated. I think we are very lucky to have your knowledge and wisdom at RTP, thankyou so much!
    Best wishes, Tom.

    Tom Murgatroyd 08/01/20 1:28 PM Reply


    • Thanks Tom,
      very much appreciated your kind words and for myself it is a pleasure to try and help anyone beat the bookies if i can, and any advice that i can give i will always be here, and thank you again on taking the advice on board it is great to hear.
      Cheers
      Colin

      cleafe 08/01/20 2:39 PM Reply


  • Tin hat on ready for the barrage HA HA
    Just noticed on the Racing Post that Unibet are defending their role in Altior’s set back even though it was on the drift before Nicky Henderson made the announcment that it would not run.
    Said sometime ago bookmakers should not be allowed to sponser racing stable, for even if they Unibet and other bookmakers are innocent HA HA they will always be open to suspission so in my view they should have nothing to do with racing stables.
    It is a sad indictment if the wealthy Henderson stable have to go down this route of sponsership heaven help the struggling trainers.
    Will not say anything about the FA and 365 other than FA greedy s—bags, not intrested in destroying peoples lives through addiction hypocrits spring to mind.
    Give me 5 mins to get into my shelter HA HA
    Colin

    cleafe 08/01/20 5:30 PM Reply


    • Colin – I’m in full agreement – I think that to an outsider to racing to see all these trainers sponsored by bookmakers and Frankie with his awful Ladbrokes advert could only make you think that the game is in their pocket

      Final Flight 08/01/20 10:26 PM Reply


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