Micro Monday: 06/01/20

Analysis of handicap chasers sent off 4/1< SP


How do handicap chasers sent off 4/1 or shorter perform?

In this week’s post i’ve pulled together a report with some pointers for handicap chasers sent off 4/1 or shorter SP. Such research always helps focus my own mind with the aim of improving my own tipping performance but hopefully many of you will find it an informative/interesting read. 


As always if you’ve any questions or comments, fire away…




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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 responses

  1. Josh, in regard to SP 4/1 or less for qualifying horses, how would you suggest members place such bets if they wish to?

    Not all can wait to close to the off in such races to place a bet if there is a qualifier. You would not know on occasion until near the off as to who qualified or not.

    Is there a simple way around this?

    Thanks Martin

    1. Hi Martin,

      I’m not sure I know what you mean? That research isn’t intended to highlight micro angles to follow with 4/1< SP shots - it's more just useful (hopefully) information on how horses in handicap chases have performed with those various parameters i've looked at. As with my 'ratings pointer' research i've printed that report out to have it handy as a reminder etc. There is the 'trainers' table of course, not that i'd recommend backing blind - I suppose that's something that could be saved as a 'micro' but i'm not sure there is an easy way to monitor the price other than sitting and watching! Which for most wouldn't be practical and another reason not to wade in with a systematic approach. If you did want to approach any of the research systematically, i'm not sure there is a way round it.

      1. My question was just how to attack such bets if you wished to without having to wait to near the off to have a bet. I did have a think about it and could not find a way around it. I do understand that it was not intended as a micro from your perspective.

        One of the services I do some work for runs a system whereby we look for money for a horse up to 10 AM and then try to work out whether it will drift out again so that we can bet at SP and get a better price. There are quite a few but you have to find them at 10.30!!!! yes, the system does show a profit but it does get it wrong regularly as well.

        Thanks for posting this piece up.

        1. No problem.

          Yep second guessing the market is a tricky game!! And understanding when money comes and what it means etc. Some say it’s simply all about the last 10 minutes or so in terms of intentions.
          But, take Bridgewater’s winner in 2.15 Lud just now -6s or so this morning – i gave it a wide birth as it was a hands and heels chase, but glanced through it and he looked interesting, just fitness/wellbeing was the question – drifts the whole day and is sent off 16s, wins by 8l! Sometimes market doesn’t have a clue.

          Yep I dont think there’s a systematic way to do it, and of course I did focus on ‘races’ which was deliberate, as of course often there would be multiple horses in the same race.

          It was useful research for me, if nothing else to make sure i’m comfortable taking on 4s< shots (when I look and looking at next price band) and making sure i'm more than thorough. I'll be wrong plenty, as I was in 1.15 Lud, 7/4>3s, winning fav but I can live with him winning. If he’s 6s>3s, maybe less so!

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