Members Daily Post: 06/01/20 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/4,1p, +1.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no race types of choice, and I really need to be more disciplined in leaving Novice Handicaps alone, certainly for ‘main tips’.  In any case the race at Chepstow is a mediocre affair.  

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/6, 2p; -6)

None. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ayr

1.35 –

Plan Of Escape (micro age) 9/1 UP

Into The Breach (m dist) 22/1 S2A UP

Dunly (m dist) H3 9/2  WON 9/2>13/2 

3.15 –

Calix Delafayette (m dist) H3 9/4 UP

Bulls Head (m age) G1 6/1 2nd 

 

Chepstow

4.00 –

Rooster Cogburn (m class and going) G3 22/1 S1 S2A UP

Oxwich Bay (m age) 4/1 UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.30 C – Dorking Cock (13/2<)  H3 I1 G3 9/4 WON 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.25 C – Bignorm (25/1<) 12/1 UP

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4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • AW T/T

    No selections today.

    Mike

    mickeydee 06/01/20 9:53 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    4.15 Agent Of Fortune 9/4
    4.45 Bernie’s Boy 11/4

    TIP TOP
    Wolverhampton
    4.45 Bernie’s Boy 11/4
    5.45 Eesha Says 7/2

    FAVOURED
    Wolverhampton
    4.15 Agent Of Fortune 9/4
    5.45 Eesha Says 7/2

    ARUBA
    No bet today.
    yesterdays bet won adviced 11/4 backed into 2/1 so no egg on my face!
    + 28.25 profit Jan
    Colin.

    cleafe 06/01/20 10:32 AM Reply


    • Great efforts Colin, I’m a big follower of your systems and appreciate you sharing them! Just a couple of questions….When a horse appears multiple times in your systems do you a) find they win more often? and b) do you back them once twice or three times etc? Thanks, ShaneO

      warriorman9 06/01/20 12:50 PM Reply


      • Hi
        Never kept records but have thought about doing so to see if there is a pattern when the bets corespond, can go through Jan bets here and i have all the Aruba bets recorded so will have a look this afternoon.
        Each system is seperate so i back the horse to each system so if it coresponds 3 times then back it 3 times, in a perfect world you should have a seperate bank for each method.
        Thanks for your kind words and because the bookmakers have in general closed my accounts it is a pleasure putting them up, especially they all are way over 20 years old, the methods are only a starting point and my knowledge comes into play and kick them out especially on heavy going, one today in the 3.30 Chepstow Duc Kauto it 2 best runs have been on good not saying it cannot win on heavy but for me not worth the risk with my money let alone yours.
        Nice to hear that someone watches my bets!
        Colin

        cleafe 06/01/20 2:07 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Have had to respond to your ref about 4/1 shots, yes it is nice when you find a 33/1 shot but they are rare and very difficult to find ie 6 winners from 99 producing a heavy loss over 2019.
    2/1 winner is 100% profit on stake.
    4/1 winner is 200% profit on stake.
    For myself can work with these percentages and totally agree i am not an ew fan.
    Maybe for the shorter priced bets of yours upto say 14/1 or 16/1 have 1 point win and then for the bigger priced ones have 1/2 point win.
    Would do this myself but my bets are usually upto 14/1 with the odd longer shot so i do stick to level stakes.
    We all love a big priced winner ask Pricewise who shouts about his odd big winner but will not publish his results and i did record his bets for 2 years and he lost in that period!
    Not having ago just passing on my opinion and do feel if you concentrate on more shorter priced bets you will be well in the black.
    Cheers
    Colin
    PS may change my name to ROONEY.

    cleafe 06/01/20 11:00 AM Reply


    • I agree Josh. I’m not criticising as you know way more about NH racing than me but I do feel that sometimes in your big race tips you chase the price and ignore the stronger chances of the shorter priced runners. I follow your big price tips to small stakes and save on shorter price fancies which has often saved the day.

      Mark Curtis 06/01/20 11:34 AM Reply


      • Well I’m always happy to be criticised if it’s fair and valid! And they’re all valid points.
        Price/value is always subjective and difficult , and there’s a big diff between c3/4 smaller field weekday races and these big Saturday/Fetsival, 16+ runner handicaps I think. And maybe I haven’t got that differentiation right for a whike. However assessing those at top of the market is something I’m trying to improve on, but over a longer period of time I’ve no doubt hunting the biggies in the big races is the way to go.
        2/3. +7.5 on the last 3 ‘shorty’ tips gives some promise for my modified thinking. And I’ve a set criteria, roughly, for when to play at that end in chases…LTO winners, unexposed, prominent racers etc.
        On flip side, in big races, it is the Wayward Princes 25s , Joe Farrels 40s,Taking Risks 25s, General Principals 33s, Very Woods 50s, Kilbricken Storms 50s etc etc of this word which really make the difference over time , when it clicks. But of course at that end the losing runs /bad runs can go on for a while! And if you don’t land on 2/3/4, and also mix wit the odd bit of bad luck, and a dash of mental/analytical mediocrity, you get my 2019.
        I do know I need to improve in that 6s to 12s range in big races also though.
        Still, you never truly have this game nailed. It’s about getting the mix right and just being better at judging the 4s shots and biggies, in all races.

        Josh 06/01/20 12:15 PM Reply


  • First up……….

    Chep’ 12.50 Miss Gemstone……….. SPR 4 – 7

    Back with more for later this afternoon after lunch.

    Tim Hanson 06/01/20 12:15 PM Reply


    • Oh hard luck Tim

      alpha2 06/01/20 12:57 PM Reply


      • Ayr 3.15 Bulls head & Ardera Cross…..SPR 2 – 5
        Chep’ 3.30 Est Illic……………………….. SPR 3 – 7

        Nothing for Wolves tonight.

        Tim Hanson 06/01/20 2:31 PM Reply


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