Members Daily Post: 05/01/20 (complete)

Tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete) , test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 1/4,1p, +1.5)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.40 Plump – CHRISTMAS IN APRIL – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365) 4/1 (gen) WON 4/1>9/2 (dec) … there was never too much doubt there although he was low through a couple of fences, which he wouldn’t want to do at a better track (stiffer fences), but he’s going the right way, and I think he did that fairly comfortably. That’s 2/3, +7.5 for my last three 4/1 shots backed (all unexposed LTO winners/prom racers) and it is an end of the market I need to get better at. In weeks gone by I may have taken them on with bigger priced no hopers or left the race, so those ‘shorty eyes’ are slowly improving. Great run from Rathlin Rose – and Uallrightharry is clearly still well handicapped, but just bumped into a classier rival. Superb ride from Harry C on ours. 

that’s all for today, 09.24, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/6, 2p; -6)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Plumpton

2.40 – Rathlin Rose (micro TJC) 22/1 S2A 3rd 50/1 (1/5 odds) 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

2.40 P – Christmas In April (14/1<)  H3 I3 5/1 WON 5/1>9/2 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.40 P – Christmas In April H3 I3 5/1 WON 5/1>9/2 / The Caller  14/1 (17/2<) UP/DNQ

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

Podcast… I suspect many of you listen to The Final Furlong podcast already but if you haven’t listened to their Bonus : Betting Special with Declan Meagher (pro punter) it’s worth some of your time I think. Well, I enjoyed it anyway, a timely reminder on many things, inc how normal losing runs are, even in the -50 range.

You can find it on the ATR site HERE>>> (3rd one down)

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2.40 Plumpton : Christmas In April

Hopefully this one jumps off and travels as well as Horatio Hornblower, but doesn’t clout one like he did. That was painful viewing made worse when you’re in a rut/having a bad day, as I’ve no doubt in my mind, given how it finished, he would have gone very close. He was swinging away, but there was still some way to go and that’s racing. The sort of bad luck, as touched on in the podcast above, that just happens in this game (and sports betting generally) that evens itself out. They’re easier to take when you’re doing well/well ahead, but that’s the game. The other poke, like the other 3, didn’t run very well. We move on, battered, bloodied, bruised but undeterred…

The Sussex National…

IF the selections jumps/complete given the strength of his profile, hot-form and Trainer/Jockey, I think he’d be entitled to be a 5/2 shot in this line up. He’s shaped over 26f the last twice as if he will relish this extra distance and he travelled well in 1st CP LTO. It’s the strength of his form which is eye-catching and much the best in this – I don’t think any others in here could run as well as he did in a Cheltenham C3 handicap hurdle last season, nor Ascot over 24f the year before that. Those hurdle runs indicated he could shape into a smart enough handicap chaser. Those form of many of his runs has worked out well, none more so than two starts back at Chepstow. He was given a patient ride there on his first chase start, staying on well into second, the front three miles clear. He wasn’t stopping at the line. The unexposed winner has since won again at Sedgefield, which wouldn’t usually get the ‘hot form’ heart racing – but he beat an inform Lord Du Mesnil there, and he hasn’t stopped hacking up since in good handicaps. His win at Fontwell LTO may not look much on paper but the Inform Speed figure is decent (in the context of the oppo) and Tea Time In Mars, who was 13L back, won his next start. It’s all clicked the last twice and he has that mix of ‘more to come’ yet with 5 chase runs under his belt, enough experience. He’s fit, in form, and I think he will be much better than 123 – he only went up 3lb for LTO, yet ran to 131 on RPRs, a career best.

There were also two chases run on that Fontwell card over the same distance, which can be a useful comparison to some degree. The total race times only tell you so much but he did run his race in 7m 46.37 seconds, carrying 11-12 … Quarenta ran his in 7m 48.10 seconds, carrying 11-1. He would go on to run a cracker in a good handicap chase at Kempton. That may mean nothing at all of course (esp say if Christmas didn’t jump or stay) but it’s a positive to my eyes, and helps give some context to what on paper just looks a run of the mill 3 runner race.

Tizzard is 2/8,3p in this race and knows what type of horse is needed, and he has a ‘nice racing weight’ for a stamina test, not having to lug a massive weight around. Harry C rides this track well and hopefully he bounces him out and has him up there – there could be a few pace pushers in this but a few may be ridden to ensure they get home. Provided he has a handy spot and a good sight of his fences, he should be the one to beat over the last couple. He could have too much class for these. To my eyes anyway. He also ticks a couple of my test zone angles.

Of the rest…

Well if he doesn’t run his race or decides to clout one, it’s open enough.

Garrane is interesting to a point but he’s now 0/8 over fences although he should stay fine. He does need more from this mark though and I preferred 4s for the LTO winner/more to come horse above, than 6s about this one. Were he 10s I may have pondered plenty more but he does need to start getting his head in front.

Onto the recently tipped horses…

The Caller – well I cursed him LTO, the moody bugger – he clearly wears headgear for a reason and he had a complete off day, never going a yard at all. Every horse is entitled to one of those of course but maybe there’s problems with the yard form also, i’m not sure. I suppose 14s may be worth the risk, but he could just throw the towel in again and horses that PU LTO in this are 0/20,2p – small numbers, but I prefer horses coming into these races ‘in form’. I suppose it means he didn’t have a hard race. If he’s travelling early, holding a position and tracking the pace, he should outrun these odds. So, he may be a painful one, as would…

Weststreet  – annoyingly for me his raced pretty much ended at Kelso when being badly hampered – he was never going a yard after that, having been lobbing along/travelling well enough. That was miles out though but ‘never knowing’ is the frustrating element – on the flip side that’s what you open yourself up to if holding horses up. Anyway… this one won’t be done for stamina but I do wonder if it will be testing enough… 28f in soft around Plumpton ‘may’ happen too quickly for him – he needed every yard of a 32f heavy Hexham last season. Again, a bit like The Caller though, if he’s easily holding a position/lobbing along at the halfway stage, he should outrun his odds. However even if they run their races, I think the selection will have too much for them, provided he runs his race.

I can live with the rest winning at their prices, various questions/concerns for me.

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. AW T/T
    Apologises for the error with the wrong selection on Sat.

    2 nice winners again yesterday 4.13 and 12.82 bfsp to add to fridays massive winner 190 bfsp (80/1) sp.

    There are no selections for today.

    Mike

  2. Morning,

    Well I`m going to do write ups on these…so, gawd help us
    14:40 Plumpton
    THE CALLER 1pt win 16/1 365 12/1 gen
    If you rule out his LTO he has a definite chance here off a workmanlike price, cannot understand how he had the beating of Vinnie Lewis and VL is half the price, think if he shakes off that LTO, then the double figure price will be a joke…let`s make the bookies pay, he stayed on really well in Durham national and this is 1/2 furlong shorter.
    SACKETT 1pt win 25/1 gen
    Now, maybe I`ve lost my marbles and it will finish out the back of the tv, but, can make a case for this one, let me explain, Bryony is on board, she has a 50% strike rate for Mr King here, it is an aggressive horse, which likes sharpish tracks, 3 of his 4 wins have been on sharpish tracks. His jumping is pretty sound which can`t be said for some of these here and he`ll keep up a gallop, he is up in class, but the last class 3 was a hurdle race for him, so, back over fences i think he`ll go well. 25/1 is a stupid price in my opinion.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Well done Josh, thoroughly deserved that!! thought Bryony was going to keep him in the mix and for a 25/1 shot he didn`t do bad..

      1. Cheers Stewart – I won’t sing and dance about these 4s/9/2 shots but that is a profile I need to get better at when working out whether to go with them, take on, or leave race! Esp given, like you, i’m not a big EW player.
        Yours has run well, keep a track of him, he did take two fences home with him, which caught up with him in the end – the yard are slowly coming back to form, back to 3m/3m2f and he could go well- may be nice price NTO also – and his running style/with BF on, is always where you want to be, and may be able to get an uncontested lead. That was only his 8th chase, and he may want a more conventional track.

        1. I disagree Josh, anyone who posts tips or recommendations on here (as I do for the AW on the free post) would be delighted their analysis worked out so well. Well done and remember it’s more fun backing a 9/2 winner than three 20/1 losers 🙂

          1. Ah you’re too kind. Id be more forgiving of myself if recent months hadnt been so turgid. Some of that is simply bad luck/how it goes, some has been just useless on my part. I’m reading the top of the market ok now, and avoiding plenty of shorty losers also. As always it’s about consistency, and demanding a high threshold for bet etc. But plenty of profit clearly to be found in chasing game in the 4s/5s range. Just need to make sure a focus on those every now and then doesn’t detract from analysis of the biggies, which ultimately make or break a year/essential for decent profits I think. Certainly in big races but maybe I’ve been chasing the spectacular too much in the more mundane weekday races.

  3. TIP TOP
    Plumpton
    2.40 Vinnie Lewis 9/1
    3.10 Tara Bridge 4/1
    3.00 Southwell Noble Behest 11/4

    ARUBA
    3.00 Southwell Noble Bhest 11/4
    guarenteed to lose after putting it up for they are flying this month!
    Colin

  4. This afternoon……

    Sou’ 1.30 Angel Palanas ………………… SPR 2 – 5
    Plum’ 1.40 Top Man ……………………… SPR 2 – 5

    Back with the rest at 1.30. Been on the wrong page so bit behind at the mo’. Cheers Martin!

  5. The rest……

    Sou’ 2.30 Global Melody & Our Charlie Brown….. SPR 3 – 6
    Plum’ 3.10 Nautical Twilight…………………………. SPR 5 – 8

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