Members Daily Post: 04/01/20 (complete)

Best of x2, Main Tips x3, Section 2 (complete), test zone, Sandown trainer pointers

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: 0/3,0p, -3)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.00 Sandown

#1 WILD WEST WIND – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/BV/888) 14/1 (others) UP, travelled well up there but not much after pond fence

#2 HORATIO HORNBLOWER – 1 point win – 16/1 (Lad) 14/1 (gen) UR –  annoying ‘never knowing’, jockey/horse got one wrong and he was tanking in the perfect spot – he wouldn’t have been far away given how that finished I doubt although was a few furlongs left, but that’s racing.

 

1.05 Wincanton 

#3 BOOK OF GOLD – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) PU 5/1, never really going a yard, disappointing.

 

Best of The Blog? (test: 0/6, 2p; -6)

#4 – 1.20 Sand – Waikiki Waves – 1 point win – 10/1 (UniB) 9/1 (BetfS/BV/PP) UP 12/1, ran ok to 2 out before making a mistake but didn’t cost him, was under the pump for a while, maybe a step too far/needs a lesser track jumping wise. Jumped ok, if not a tad slow/stand off-ish.

#5 – 2.05 Winc – Cesar Collonges – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/Lad/Coral) 9/1 (others) UP 14/1, poor.

write ups at bottom of post

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Newcastle

3.10 – Gennady (all Hc’s) H3 I3 5/1  WON 11/2 

 

Sandown

1.20 –

Vinnie The Hoddie (all Hc’s) 14,30  15/2 UP

Mercy Mercy Me (micro runs) 9/2 WON 9/2 

Waikiki Waves (m runs) w1 w2 H1 I1 G3 7/1 S4 S1 UP

3.00 – Burtons Well (m dist) 30 w8/1 UP

3.35 –

Mill Green (HcH) 30 I1 G1 10/1 S1 WON 10/1>14/1 , 19.9 BFSP 

Distingo (m rtuns) 16/1 S2A UP

Gunnery (HcH) 30 w1 I1 G3 3/1 UP

 

Wincanton

2.05 – Saintemilion (m TJC) H3 I3 G3 7/4 S4 UP

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TTP Chase Micros

1.20 Sand – Waikiki Waves (m runs) H1 I1 G3 7/1 UP

1.50 Sand- Darebin H3 G3 13/2 UP

 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers

Lucinda Russell (any odds, 14/1< best)

12.25 Newc – Orioninverness  I1 G3 9/2 PU

3.10 Newc – Celtic Flames H3 I1 G3 10/3 UP

Sue Smith (any odds)

12.25 Newc – Whats The Scoop H3 I3 G1 10/3 2nd 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

2.05 Winc- Molineaux H3 I1 4/1 WON 4/1>11/4

1.50 Sand – Johnbb (13/2<) H1 6/4 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.05 Winc – Cesar Collonges (17/2< guide) 14/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

(results update below in section 4)

1.30 Newc – Lygon Rock (hot form from LTO) 11/2 UR 8/1

1.50 Sand – Delire Destruval I3 4/1  2nd, head, 5/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Saturday Big Race Trainer Records 

Trainers to have won races previously/ with runners >>>

Sandown

12.15 

  • Brambledown

12.45

  • Silver Forever

1.20 

  • No trends/record in HRB, but G Moore won this last year with Larry. Runs Waikiki Waves this time.

1.50 

  • Darebin (last year’s winner)

2.25 

  • Fiddlerontheroof
  • Son of Camas
  • Calva DAuge

3.00 

  • No trends/record in HRB, but Venetia won this last year with the grand old warrior, Houblon Des Obeaux. Race named in his honour and she runs Burton’s Well this year.

3.35 

  • Gunnery / Mill Green

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Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 : How have they been performing? 

I thought it best I look to see if my eyes are any good at spotting eye-catchers! The section in the Test Zone (derived from the weekly ‘Tracker Tuesday’ posts) was intended as a good ‘way in’, and so far the stats would suggest they are just that.

So, since the 22nd July which I think is when the first ‘Tracker Tuesday’ post came into being – they were quiet enough until mid Sept when the number of tracker horses picked up.

58 chasers highlighted / 18 have won (within 3 runs – plenty have just run once/twice) >> that’s ok as a ‘starting point’

If I look at all 58 horses and use a simple method of backing blind for 3 runs after they were highlighted, stopping at a winner (stop after 3 if haven’t won)

100 bets / 18 wins / 39 wins|places / -16 ISP / -7 BFSP 

There’s been two winners backed from 8am prices 20s>9s, and 20s>14s which wipes out that ISP loss, as an example. If 3/4 of those 21 placed horses had won, they’d be in profit and looking ok. So, backing to morning prices could well be profitable backing blind. I wouldn’t advise doing this yet as such but if I can sharpen my eyes a bit further there’s hopefully some promise there as a ‘systematic’ approach, maybe. I will continue to post them for a max of 3 runs, stopping at a winner – of course you’re free to use your own trackers with those posts/add your own notes etc. I’m also now tracking them as of the 1st Jan within the master results spreadsheet – a December/2019 results update will be posted early next week.

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Write ups…

1.05 Winc – Book of Gold –

I’m hoping this may be another Seaston Spirit who hacked up at 4s a few days ago – he had a similar profile in that it had all clicked on the run before, hacking up as he pleased. This one won at Warwick on the day Super ran and I was cursing myself for not picking him in the race he won at his morning odds, 8s or so, instead going for the Dennis horse who lines up again here – ah, we know how this goes!! 🙂 I went a bit ‘safe’ there at the odds, but you could tell within 3 fences i’d made a howler. This one had the best hurdles form LTO and he does so in this line up also – so many decent efforts, inc one at C2, in races that have produced numerous winners at a decent level – those runs hinted that he’d be chucked in from his mark over fences if ever getting it together. I don’t think the handicapper has caught up with him yet and gets 5lb off here. It won’t be the ratings that stops him today. He jumped out to his right a bit LTO so Wincanton may help – they’ve put 1st CP which is interesting, maybe Leighton felt he could be concentrating harder. This could be testing enough today, esp if any forecast rain materialises, and if he runs like LTO I thought he should be a 2s, 5/2 shot in this. 4s looks generous and is a low as I will go, tipping wise. I thought he could just be better than this lot, even though many are unexposed also given the race type. He should lob away on or near the front end and hopefully H B can get him into a rhythm. He’s a decent enough claimer and the yard continue in fine form. As with Seaston I really do think it’s whether he runs his race as there should be plenty more improvement in him and his mark is still 8lb short of his highest over hurdles – he also ran to a 125 RPR LTO. With these 4s/ 9/2 shots i’m trying to stick to unexposed LTO winners as some sort of criteria, and pref ones who race prominently. He ticks all those boxes and hopefully being patient/waiting for this type, will pay in the long run.

I could list dangers/talk through the rest, but i’m running out of time/energy is dissipating – as always happy to field any questions in comments along the lines of ‘why didn’t you like X?’ etc.

1.20 Sand – Waikiki Waves –

9s just seems silly in this line up. I’m still sat scratching my head as to why he’s this big – maybe i’ve missed something and/or he’s had a problem since his facile win LTO. Given the yard won this race last year I thought they may just have kept him back for it- although it is ‘only’ a 9k C3, so maybe that logic is a bit off. In any case LTO proved he can go well fresh and I can’t think fitness will be a problem. If he never gets competitive turning in i’ll assume he’s had an issue, but his price allowed the chance I think given his progressive profile. Many of his races, while at a lower level, have produced plenty of winners and I liked how he travelled and jumped LTO – he really was very good at his fences and finished that race fresh enough – which is no mean feat up that muddy Fontwell hill. The handicapper will catch up with him at some point but I’m not sure he has just yet. Gary Moore is in form and Jamie does well on his dad’s horses here – 5/19, 8p in the last year alone. Hopefully he bounces out and tracks Dicky – he is up in class but this race seems open enough to my eyes.

2.05 Winc – Cesar Collonges

Possibly the riskiest one of the day on paper at least but 9s, in this line up, looked worth chancing. He’s lightly raced for his age and is now only 3lb higher than when hacking up at Market Rasen four starts ago on 26th Dec 18. It could be he’s taken a couple of runs to come to himself, and could also have been feeling his big return effort in dire ground at Lingfield, when racing at Sandown LTO. However that is twice now he’s run shockers at Sandown and maybe he doesn’t like the place. He was sent off at 20s with Leighton A on which makes me think not much was expected. Still, he wasn’t far off at the Pond fence before plodding home, in a race full of progressive types, and horses seemingly in much better form than this one. He gets 1st CP which may help (they may not of course) and Sean Bowen in the saddle – i really need to be backing more of his chase rides, or trying too, as he’s so good. He should try and track Bryony here i’d have thought and IF he bounced back to his best may still be thrown in. He is risky as he doesn’t show up great on the ratings sets I use, but then again, everything in here seemingly has serious questions to answer (all bar the Fav but hopefully he feels that big effort 9 days ago and he looks open to attack from something with more in hand – but he could be the only one to run his race) and I wouldn’t want to be with anything at shorter prices personally. Fingers crossed that he bounces back, he’s no 9s shot if he does.

3.00 Sandown –

Wild West Wind –

I try to avoid the Vets chases generally speaking, unless something really jumps out, but I can rarely resist having a go at this Finale – the Vets series one of the better BHA initiatives. 16s seemed generous for this one given the form of the yard and George knows how to win Vets races. Johnny Burke is riding like a man possessed also. This one has travelled superbly the last twice, jumping well and swinging away behind the pace – at Warwick he blew up, seemingly needing it I suspect (although he’s clearly had breathing problems) and LTO at Kelso he ran well- there’s a chance JJ went for home too soon, on a long run in with the last two fences dolled off, as he only tied up late. He may have also been idling, and it’s interesting that George reaches for the CP, and the tongue tie returns. He’s lightly raced for his age and this could well be his Gold Cup. I thought he may swing into this until 2 out, and then we shall see how he responds to pressure/when/if he hits the front. There are reasons to be hopeful to my eyes and 16s looked a tad insulting. It could be he’s just a weak finisher but he won’t be done for stamina I don’t think, and the headgear/TT/JJ knowing him better, and indeed the better form of the yard from when he was last seen (4/19 last 14 days) maybe the reasons for a winning performance today.

Horatio Hornblower –

Seemingly a horse i’ve never got right, having never tipped him before from memory – that was the same for when my pin landed on Buywise in this in Jan 18 and with any luck lightening can strike twice. His price leaves me puzzled somewhat, given he’s in the best form of any of these. He’s ‘only’ won 5 chases in his life, but 2 of those have been his last two runs – I do wonder if his last two efforts have caught up with him, or will catch up with him – that’s the only reason I can think of for why he’s this price/won’t run his race – it could be clear he’s just not feeling it early on – however, if he runs his race, he won’t be far away here. He’s been tracking the pace, or did LTO, and Chester has got to know him/has been riding him well. HH also has course form and that 3rd here in March was solid, with unexposed/progressive horses in front. At his best he just jumps, gallops and sticks his head down for you.

Hopefully both of them race prominently enough, with Japek trying to make all I suspect.

The dangers? Well it is open and one reason for not diving into these Vets races too often is because these older horses can have a mind of their own and may not decide until very late in the day whether they can be bothered or not – and of course they’ll all have aches and pains now.

The other double figure price one I was sort of interested in was On Tour, who was around 10s/11s gen – maybe I was remembering Buywise – same owners/trainer/running style – the 1st Visor may spark him up and if he got back to the level of form two starts ago would go close here – I did think some others may see the trip out better up this hill, but I could be wrong on that. And he is usually ridden very cold. I think I wanted a bigger price, but he’s interesting.

I didn’t like the ones at single figure odds, none of them looked overpriced to my eyes. Vieux Lion Rouge – he only seems to run his best races after a break now, and has generally been kept LH over fences in recent years. Again, like many in here, they could just bounce into form and at their ‘Veteran Best’ would go close. I thought he may just be out of form now but I suppose he was thereabouts in the Becher until just after 3 out, he did lose a shoe and has a touch of staying class. I was happy to leave the other bigger priced ones for various reasons.

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That’s all from me today. Best of luck.

oh, i’ll mention the eye-catchers…

Lygon Rock – I suppose I wouldn’t put you off, I just thought it was a very competitive race on only his second chase and he was around 6s when I was looking – I wanted bigger, esp as while he’s unexposed/comes from a hot race LTO, he bled from the nose (62 days off since which makes me think it was an issue), does have to prove his stamina and in soft – he could relish it, but he is inexperienced also. A few too many questions at his price this time for me personally, but i’ve no doubt given his form/prev hot races that he will demolish this mark one day over fences. It could be today but he’s up against a few in-form progressive ones and x3 LTO winners. It could be a race worth following and I could have him wrong today. It’s a long way for HD to send one horse and RPs only ride on the card.

Delire Destruval – simply price really – 7/2 gen, and even 4s was skinny enough to my eyes – well as per above, I want LTO winners at those odds really, especially over fences. He’s a decent but inexperienced rider on top – but I think he will go very close. If he were 6s/7s i’d have dived in I suspect in this line up – he was that price on Thursday but no idea if he was going to be declared etc or how many would line up. He’s got chases in him this season, and he could take this. I just wanted bigger, but he may make 7/2 look decent.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    Wow!! Hot Hot Hot was a HOT winner 80s sp 190 Bfsp. Recorded to bfsp. I didn’t see the race personally..at a funeral. I hope that topped up the AW banks.

    4 runners for Sat.
    12.10 L Sky Defender…M Johnston T/J…8/1
    1.10 L Cottonopolis…M Johnston Cl…6/1
    2.50 L Kitaabaat…D Simcock Hcp…6/1
    6.10 K Stanford…A Balding Cl…2/1

    Mike

      1. Jamesm

        Apologies, yes you are correct. I was still on Lingfield at the time I clocked him.
        A Watson is hcp at Kempton.

        Well spotted.

        Mike

  2. Todays selections, may do write ups later.

    15:00 Sandown
    KINGS ODYSSEY 1pt win 10/1 gen
    SMOOTH STEPPER 1pt win 14/1 gen
    15:35 Sandown
    DISTINGO 1pt win 16/1 gen
    JOHN CONSTABLE 1pt win 25/1 gen

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

  3. Todays Lucky 15.
    WIN 1.05 Dino Boy 6/1
    SAN 1.20 Waikiki Waves 8/1
    SAN 3.35 Mill Green 8/1
    KEM 7.10 Break The Rules 11/1

  4. COLINS BETS
    12.25 Newcastle Pinch Of Ginger 11/4
    3.35 Sandown Gunnery 7/2
    6.10 Kempton Brunel Charm 3/1

    FAVOURED
    1.45 Lingfield Haddaf SP
    2.00 Newcastle Adjutant 10/3
    Colin

    1. I thought that Colin’s bets went off to a tipping service or am I confused?

      After the Christmas and New Years cards the racing the next saturday does go a bit mediocre. However, a winner is a winner.
      I do like Son Of Camas as a horse. he goes in the 2.25 at Sandown today and hopefully he wins and heads off to the festival. Not so sure about Gunnery in the 3.35? Has it to do today at a short price in a competitive race.

      Still looking but nothing else yet.

      1. Hi Martin
        Obviousley you had a good festive season and yes you are confused the tipping service is Elite and Colins bets are back to the Original method or starting points last year made a error by tweaking the rules trying to find larger priced bets and these new rules did not work, so hopefully Colins bets will make a decent profit this year.
        Colin

    1. Hi Mark, always a free post, just can be a bit later on Sats when so much for me to wade through – it’s up now. I’ll try and get it up sooner next Sat! 🙂

  5. Part 1……..

    Ling’ 12.10 Scofflaw………………………..SPR 3-7
    Cork 12.20 Act Of God…………………….8.0
    Newc’ 12.25 What’s The Scoop & Orioninverness SPR 2 -7
    Ling’ 12.40 Stately Home………………… 10.0
    Sand 1.20 Vinnie The Hoddie & Waikiki Wave SPR 3 – 6
    Newc’ 1.30 AcDc & Looks Like Murt….. SPR 4 – 8
    Winc’ 1.35 Southfield Harvest………….. 8.0
    Sand 1.50 Darebin…………………………. SPR 2 – 4
    Winc’ 2.05 Admiral’s Secret……………… SPR 2 – 7

    Back at 1.30 with Part 2.

    1. Part 2……..

      Winc’ 2.40 Rootless Tree…………………. SPR 3 – 6
      Newc’ 3.10 Gennady………………………. SPR 2 – 6
      Ling’ 3.35 Dangerous Ends……………… SPR 3 – 6

      Nothing for Kempton tonight.

  6. ARUBA
    have been recording them this month and once again sods law they are flying and the results do not include a 4/1 winner for did not include it in my other methods.
    Jan 6 winners from 10 bets + 25.50 points level stake profit.
    Adviced prices
    4/1, 10/1, 11/4, 3/1, 7/1, 11/4
    BFSP
    5.50, 19.75, 4.63, 4.43, 9.06, 5.40.
    Cannot runaway with this for December lost – 16.292 points, but i do strongly believe a lot was down to the heavy ground and since finally the ground is slowly drying out the results are improving along with TIP TOP + 12.50 level stakes profit and this includes todays two losers.
    Both methods selects horses from higher up in the weights so when an horse tries pulling its hoof out of the mud it is more difficult and then they have to jump a bloody fence so in my view there is more chance of errors in jumping can happen, anyway will see how both methods progress in time although Tip Top as had 3 winning months out of 3 and January is looking good so far with a long way to go!
    Colin.

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