Members Daily Post: 03/01/2020 (complete)

No tips, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8 ) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2020: /)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no races of choice.

 

Best of The Stats? (test: 0/4, 2p; -4)

None today. A quiet couple of days but things should liven up over the weekend. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

JUMPS

Hereford

3.20 – Cock A Doodle Doo (all Hc’s,micro TJC) 30 14/1 PU

 

Musselburgh

1.20 – Titus Bolt (HcH) 14 w2 ES+ H3 I3 G3 11/4 S3A# S4 2nd

2.25 – Sky Khan (m dist) I3 12/1 UP

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

January Trainers

L Russell (any odds, 14/1< best)

1.55 M – Blooriedotcom H1 G3 11/4 WON 3/1 

2.25 M – Sky Khan I3 12/1 UP

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

3.00 M – Im To Blame (11/1<) H3 I3 G1 Evens  WON Evens> 5/6

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Saturday trends… I’ll put something up in this post later this afternoon/in Sat’s post-  it’s looking like small enough fields in some of the handicaps where stats/trends are less relevant, but i’ll dig out any trainer pointers etc if there are any. 

To follow…

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    For those doing ew a small return on Presence Process 18s BOG 12s SP.

    9 runners Friday plus 1 Res at Dundalk.

    12.30 W Musee D’orsay…T Carroll Dist…16/1
    Hot Hot Hot…T Carroll Dist…40/1
    Lucifer…T Carroll Dist…16/1
    1.00 W Lyrical Ballard…N Mulholland Hcp…33/1
    5.45 S Pumblechook…I Jardine Hcp…7/1
    7.15 S Slyviacliffs…K Burke Cl…14/1
    6.00 D Theobald…J Bolger T/J…5/2
    Sheisdiesel…N Meade Hcp…9/4
    8.00 D National Identity…Reserve,.J Bolger T/J…9/1?
    8.30 D Paistiul…J Bolger T/J…10/1

    Well, hope one or two of the above oblige.

    Mike

    1. Many thanks for posting Mike, I got bfsp of 190 for Hot Hot Hot, what a start and well done Josh for producing the systems.
      Linda

    2. Blimey! I think that may be the biggest priced winner ever mentioned on these pages.

      Thanks for continuing to post Mike – when it quietens down any update from whenever you started tracking would be great (i may have missed one!) – that new approach to the TTP profile for the winter AW appears to be landing on the odd biggie, 20s+, that the biggest of the lot, in and amongst many losers! Food for thought for me for the Flat Turf version.

      Hope you had a nibble, I believe you’ve been backing them! Some fun with that one even to £2 stakes – i’ve been keeping a watching brief, more fool me – but appears a few have had a go which is the main thing.

      1. Josh

        Posted 1st Jan res update.
        Dec 42 bets 3 wins -11.38 ROI -28.45%
        Nov/Dec Total 77bets 6 wins +26.33 ROI 34.19%

        Todays winner will make a difference. As you said it comes up with the odd biggie. 7/1 I think is the shortest winner. Todays winner was 190 BFSP.
        It brought to an end a losing streak of 26. PLAY THE LONG GAME.

        I hope some of you were on it. I was but only sp ew.

        Mike

        1. thanks Mike – oh well if keeps in and around that 10% win SR, which given it’s ‘any odds’ could well be fine – then a losing run of 26 will be at the lower end over time!! : ) Please that they’re finding some biggies.

  2. Todays E/W Lucky 15.
    Wol 12.30 Blackcurrent 6/1
    Mus 1.20 Istimraar 8/1
    Her 3.20 Hepburn 10/1
    Sou 6.45 Mews House 11/2

  3. COLINS BETS
    2.35 Wolverhampton First Responce 7/4
    3.20 Hereford Kilcrea Bridge 10/3
    6.15 Southwell Samovar 13/2
    7.15 Southwell Break The Silence 7/4
    Colin

  4. TIP TOP
    1.55 Musselburgh Bloorieddotcom 3/1
    5.45 Southwell Sea Of Mystery 4/1

    FAVOURED
    3.20 Hereford Kilcrea Bridge 10/3
    Colin

  5. Decided to change the tips to SPR, if only because it makes life a damned sight easier for me. For newbies SPR = starting price rank. So if I put SPR 3 – 6 after a horse’s name that means it can only be regarded as a bet if it’s placed third to sixth in the market just before the off. You will get more than the one horse in the same race so set stakes accordingly. Not a big fan of it myself, but it does mathematically return a far higher ROI than EW staking over the long term, so I’m ok with it now.

    Was hoping to start this Jan’ 1st but it turned out to be a lot more time consuming to convert every saved routine for all the different tracks than I expected.

    This afternoon’s….
    Here’ 12.40 Enry Iggin’s & Bindon Lane.. SPR 2 – 4
    Here’ 1.10 First Assembly………………… SPR 2 – 4
    Muss’ 2.25 Court Baloo……………………. SPR 2 – 4
    Wolv’ 2.35 Jomrok…………………………. SPR 4 – 6
    Wolv’ 3.45 Morning Fury & Manaabit… SPR 4 – 7
    Here’ 3.55 Delight Of Dubai………………. 10.0

    Obviously you won’t always get 2 runners in the same race. For example in the first race Bindon Lane looks very unlikely to qualify, but doing it this way makes it easier to post in advance. In the case of the 3.55 it’s 10.0 (BFSP) or no bet. Which will remain the same as it was before for the non hcp bets.

    Back at 4.00 with the evening bets.

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