Members Daily Post: 31/12/19 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 24/165, 49p +16.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.20 Uttox – SEASTON SPIRIT – 1 point win – 4/1 (bet365/Lad/WH/BV/Coral) WON 4/1>10/3 

that’s all for main tips, as of 08.29

 

Best of The Stats? (test: 0/4, 2p; -4) 

1.30 Warw – JOLLY MAKER – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP, poor, detached early, never seemed to keep tabs, made bad early error which seemed to do for him also. Maybe he needs a break and is best fresh, 60+ days. Has another C5 hncp in him. 

3.10 Warw – VOILA ERIC – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/WH) 14/1 (gen) UP 16/1 – well that was exciting for a long way, until he seemingly fell in a hole 2 out – that’s twice he’s stopped quickly enough now and I wonder if he’s got internal problems, or downs tools when asked for effort. He’s seemingly gone through the ground just fine. 

that’s all for today, as of 09.17, write ups at bottom of post 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

12.15 – Tennewrow (all Hc’s) 14 I1 5/1 UP

1.20 – On The Road (micro runs) I3 6/1 UR

 

Warwick

1.30 – Joly Maker (all Hc’s) I1 8/1 UP

2.35 –

The Wicket Chicken (all Hc’s) H3 8/1 3rd 

His Dream (all Hc’s,m class)    ES+ I3 12/1 S3A UP

3.10 – Write It Down (all Hc’s,m class)  ES+ H3 I1 5/1 S3A# UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

2.35 W – Pemberley (14/1<) H1 G3 5/1 UP

December Pointers

Trainer

2.25 Uttox – Evidence De Thaix H1 G1 I3 9/4 2nd 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

3.10 W – Voila Eric 16/1 UP

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

1.30 W – By Rail (9/1< guide) 16/1  UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

2.25 Uttox – Shannon Bridge G3 7/1  WON 7/1>13/2  

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

New Micro Monday Post HERE>>>

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Write ups…

1.20 Warw – I was expecting Seaston Spirit to be fav, around 2/1, 5/2, and I decided I couldn’t leave 4s. He finally got it all together LTO at Lingfield where he seemingly finished off his race like a fresh horse, pretty much hard held. He beat an unexposed LTO winner in second and in the context of this race the form looks solid enough. His hurdles form always promised plenty as did the odd chase, finishing in and around much higher rated horses. He seems to relish heavy.  The yard remain in good form, he’s unexposed, he stays, he relishes the ground, he bolted up LTO and he races prominently. He ticks all my boxes for a 4s/9/2 shot which is as ‘short’ as I like to go – but I saw no reason why he couldn’t follow up against this lot. The figures – RPR, Inform Speed (inc LTO figure) and HRB (clear top) indicate he’s the one to beat on recent form. 

It’s a pretty dire race in truth – I thought he just looks/has performed like a better horse than Getacre Street at a similar price, and he should have track position on him. If mine capsizes or for some reason doesn’t perform, he should go close, and maybe the main danger will be The Ogle Gogle Man – who won this last year. Heavy ground is a complete unknown and his run LTO looks good on paper – but the winner ran a shocker yesterday at Haydock and the Inform speed figure of that run is dire – making me think, on their figures anyway, that it wasn’t as good a run as it looked. He’s usually held up and can hit a fence also. IF he handles heavy (and he’s won well on soft) he may give me plenty to think about but I was happy to take him on. The rest have far too many questions to my eyes to contemplate or even consider as dangers, provided mine performs. 

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To the ‘best of’ test and a couple of chase pokes…

1.30 W  – Jolly Maker – 

This horse is unexposed, travels well and has jumped well in his chasing career to date. I thought 9s looked worth a stab if he got back to his best – and in these colours, who knows when that may be! Given Jonjo is 14/50,21p +56 with his handicap chasers here and they like giving Richie the odd winner (as he does a sterling job in – ahem- ensuring some may not win, affectionately known as ‘stopper’ it seems) that could be the day. I’ve watched his Leicester effort back a few times – do give it a watch up the straight – and I still don’t really know what to think – to my eyes RM has a tight grip of his head, inc at the fences, the whole way up the straight, while seemingly bumping/flappping around – it could be he felt flat underneath and didn’t like the hill – although he never used the stick on him. Anyway – if I ignore that run, which 9s just about allows me to do (any young horse can have an off day, if my eyes have been far too skeptical), his form before that would put him in the mix here.

His Southwell win was solid enough, especially he was help onto for a long time and I suspect could have won by a lot further if wanted. The 3rd at Wincanton in a C4 handicap hurdle was decent also, esp in the context of this race – i’m not sure he fully stayed that trip but may have been outpaced over timber/that ground, or just outclassed. He dropped back to C5 at Uttox over 20f in soft – again he travelled/jumped well, like one still well handicapped, and was level with them around 2 out – his effort then flattened, like a horse who didn’t get the trip. He was then back up in class in that Leic race (but a poor C4) and now drops back into an open/weak C5. It could be he’s gone out of form as quickly as he came into it, but I’ll roll the dice at the price, given his profile. 

Comber Mill is in some sort of form over hurdles but is 0/5 chasing – and he didn’t seem to take to it that well when he tried. I’d like to see a decent chase run again before diving in, but if he got it together he’d go close. Battleofthesome is also unexposed but PU LTO – never really going and lost a shoe – whether that was the reason who knows – but we’re generally dealing with mediocre animals and not ones i’d want to take ‘short’ prices on- if he got back to the level of his win – he may take some stopping. Scott’s charge is 8 and is now 0/17, 4p, and the yard are 0/12,0p in the last 14 days. I can leave him at 10/3 although only his 7th chase start. I wasn’t sure this drop back in trip would suit. 

If the selection gets back to the level of his win, and indeed that Uttoxeter run, I don’t think he’s a 9s shot. 

3.10 – Viola Eric – 

Well if those two have fallen out the back of the TV, or ran a gallant 2nd (the general theme of recent months) I may be asking for too much hoping that this one rescues the day at a general 14/1 – however, he’s the sort who if he puts his best foot forward could bolt up. 

He hits the Scudamore test zone angle which does throw up nice priced winners- he’s also a ‘medium term’ notebook horse from Adam Norman’s guest posts last season (RTV have since snapped him up for blog posts!)  – a chaser in the making – which indicates that visually at least, he looks like a decent horse. On the basis of his Point 2nd (the horses he split) and indeed the form of his Southwell bumper run – at some point he should make 97 look a a gift. I suppose he has a similar profile to Monbeg Aquadude who hasn’t done much as yet – like him, this one is getting 1st blinkers – he did race prominently at Kelso before fading, over 2m7 and 1st run of the season – and the 66 days off may suggest something was amiss/they’ve tinkered with how they train him etc. They drop back in trip here (which on breeding looks a positive) and with the blinkers on, and given how they rode him LTO, I hope they’ll be aggressive. His point placed effort was on heavy – but soft is an unknown – again, he’s 14s/16s. 

It’s a risky one, but that’s why he’s 14s/16s – and there’s enough there, in a race like this, to be hopeful of a big effort. It’s a moderate race. Jonjo’s may go well at 5s but I’d want a bigger price given his profile. 

So, fingers crossed- hopefully Sherwood’s can bolt up and one of these two can give us something to cheer. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • AW T/T

    No winners Monday.

    Last chance to improve the December figures. There are 3 runners for Tuesday.

    2.10 L Golden Fountain…M Johnston Cl…6/1
    2.45 L Ultimate Avenue…T Dascombe Hcp…12/1
    Jackstar…T Dascombe Hcp…9/2

    Mike

    mickeydee 30/12/19 4:41 PM Reply


    • Ultimate avenue trained by Simcock?

      jamesm 31/12/19 9:32 AM Reply


      • Jamesm

        Well spotted my mistake. Thanks. Glad some is following these.

        Mike

        mickeydee 31/12/19 9:47 AM Reply


        • Mike – that alpha method comment – by all means put it in the free post, albeit pref without a link – not in the members’ club comments – it does seem to be something ‘new’ into the market place – there’s a trial at least – one of those where i’d paper trade – usually if something seems a bit too good to be true, i find it often is – but who knows. I’ve been receiving the emails – he’s been a bit cheeky using his playscoop6 free email list imo- but that’s an aside- but I haven’t really been following. Anyway – by all means post something in free post as others may have a view.

          Josh 31/12/19 10:07 AM Reply


        • A fortunate error, Ultimate Avenue I had already backed ew at 12s SP 25s before I was told it was the wrong trainer.

          Some small change profit,.

          Mike

          mickeydee 31/12/19 5:35 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet

    TIP TOP
    3.20 Lingfield Knockout Blow 11/4

    Favoured new method starting 1st of January, yesterday 2 winners from 3.
    12.00 Lingfield Roundabout Magic 5/2
    1.50 Uttoxeter Keep Wondering 5/2
    3.10 Warwick Write It Down 11/2

    ARUBA
    Stopping putting these up for now, will record myself for a couple of months to see how it goes for do not wish to lose anyone their hard earned cash, although still have faith in the method and they have been running well without winning.
    Colin

    cleafe 31/12/19 10:18 AM Reply


  • Looks like the muppet that runs a crappy scoop6 site . Can’t remember the name of it but it’s for mug dreamers. I’d imagine this is drivel too. I remember querying his numbers with him once and he got very upset mainly because my numbers were correct and his argument was about as solid as icecream in the Sahara. The man got lucky once and thinks he’s some kind of betting guru now.

    handbag 31/12/19 10:19 AM Reply


  • Nice to have a winner or two to see the year out could do with building the bank up for 2020 Happy New Year Josh and all on Racing to profit

    willie04 31/12/19 10:38 AM Reply


  • Warwick
    2:35 – Tea Time Fred (25/1)
    With the very decent claimer on board he’s below his last winning mark and back down in grade.
    3:10 – Voila Eric (16/1)
    Have had this in my tracker for chasing. Has had a break since pipe opener and blinkers applied. Glad to Josh’s write up above.
    3:40 – Cronk Y Knox (14/1)
    Very positive comments from WG on LTA site for first run, despite the big field.

    Chris R.

    Chris Randall 31/12/19 11:32 AM Reply


  • Happy New Year and Good Health to all for the coming year….

    Tony Mc.

    Tony Mc 31/12/19 11:48 AM Reply


  • Nice pick to end the year Josh, thanks. All the best to you and everyone RTP for 2020.

    Mark Curtis 31/12/19 2:39 PM Reply


    • cheers Mark – been a torrid time/mediocre year in truth – but nice to cheer something to end it with, but should never get too excited about 4s shots – but I need to get more of those around that price right – at least I learnt from Copperhead/Boldmere and didn’t miss him today.
      Still, with any luck 2020 is much better and i’m due a big spike soon enough! 🙂 Thanks for your continued support, onwards.
      Josh

      Josh 31/12/19 2:46 PM Reply


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