Members Daily Post: 30/12/19 (complete)

Best Of Tip x1 + write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 23/164, 48p +12.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None today.

 

Best of The Stats? (test: 0/2, 2p; -2) 

3.10 Hayd – GOLD OPERA – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/WH/BV/Unib) 2nd, decent run, sadly for me but not connections Ravehill got it all together, despite being scrappy at a couple and racing enthusiastically he saw it out well, and didn’t bleed which he’s done in the past – i lived him hope he may fade/be outstayed after the last, but decent ride from Cook. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.44, write up at bottom of post..

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

No TTP Quals on Monday. 

 

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TTP Chase Micros 

1.50 Taunt – Buster Moon (any) 20/1 UP

3.10 Hayd – Nesterenko (any, 9/2< best)14,30 I3 7/2  UP

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

1.50 Taunt – Manofthemountain (14/1<)  H3 I3 3/1 WON 3/1>5/2 

 

December Pointers

Trainer

12.45 Taunt – Zoffee  H1 I1 G1 4/5 2nd 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

1.50 Taunt – Chimes of Dylan  16/1 UP

2.00 Hayd – Thomas Patrick (13/2<) 7/2 UP

3.10 Hayd – Gold Opera (11/1<) H1 G1 7/1 2nd 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

2.oo Hayd – Potters Legend (9/1<) H3 I3 G1 9/2 PU

2.55 Taunt – Lizzie Langton (any odds) G3 6/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

3.10 Hayd – Ravenhill Road I3 9/2 WON 9/2>3/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

3.10 Hayd – Gold Opera…

I fancied this one LTO I think and at 7s, dropped in class, in a race he finished a close second in last year, I was happy to have another go – even more so that everything in this has a few questions, and there are no unexposed LTO winners in here to worry about. They dolled off two of the fences at Kelso which left a long long run in and when there are fewer fences to jump it taxes a horse’s stamina so much more – he just seemed to run out of gas in the final furlong, up the hill. Still, it wasn’t a bad effort and he’s been dropped a couple of pounds. He’s miles clear top rated on both HRB and GG and with any luck they will be a good pointer this time.

Looking at those stats qualifiers (Section 2/test zone) with a H1/H3 next to their name is no bad starting point and i’m trying to focus on those to start with. They are finding plenty of winners, I just need to start landing on some of them.

Back to Gold Opera… obv he’s more at the exposed end but his mark is looking tempting again and one of the reasons for liking him LTO was his 4th at Aintree in April – that was such a good run on his fourth start for the yard – (would have gone closer but for saddle slipping late) off 128 it hints that he’s got a win in him this season, and hopefully it’s this race. He’s also only one of two horses to have run at Haydock and the only one over fences, which is a positive.

I thought 7s looked a shade overpriced in this line up and found it interesting they’ve come here, given his effort in the race last year. I think this may be as far as he wants to go and he handles soft/heavy well. It could also be he’s taken a few runs to get fit, as can be the case with older horses, esp as he UR early on two starts back.

Pace/race set up – There isn’t much pace on paper in this and they’ve been aggressive with him before and there should be no excuses, provided they don’t ride him cold.

The dangers…  ?

Well its Gold Opera or nothing in this race at the price ,to my eyes anyway.

Charmix is interesting based on his run LTO but it’s his second run after 500+ days off and he could ‘bounce’ – he’s moved around some decent trainers also – Harry Fry> Gordon Elliot>Sandy Thompson and now to Lucinda. He’s clearly had issues/been difficult to work out and 9/2 just wasnt big enough and he hasn’t won in nearly two years. He’s got questions, at his price, but he’d go close if building on LTO…

Nesternko seems short given he’s 0/8 over fences, up in class, and all his best form/winning form has been with ‘good’ in the going, which is unusual for one of Venetia’s. It could be that his older legs may now appreciate  a swamp but he looks a bit tripless – he’s the sort that, on reflection, makes you realise how much better 7/2 shots the likes of Copperhead/Boldmere were, not that they/my approach with those types/races has been keeping me up at night. He could well take this but 7/2 just seems short given the questions, but his trainer couldn’t be in much better form.

Ravenhill Road seems short/about right at 9/2 given he’s got to prove he stays, and he’s been clouting a few fences on recent runs – he does shape as if this trip could be what he wants, and he’s unexposed. Sue Smith may also be about to burst into life (hopefully the case for the Smith Jan/Feb angles – last micro monday post). On the flip side, he may not stay – and given he’s not coming here on the back of a LTO staying on win etc, i’ll leave him at 9/2. He’s interesting though.

The rest I could leave for various reasons. Lough Derg Jewel – guessing as to fitness to some degree, but he has won fresh before, and conditions are fine – but at 15/2 or so, and give the yard are 1/27 in last 14 days, i’ll take him on off top weight. 351 days is a long absence to overcome (clearly had a problem I suspect) around here in this ground.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    At long last, we have a runner on Monday well 2 to be exact. The first is very appropriate.

    12.35 L Mickey… T Dascombe Hcp…0/30
    3.20 L Settle Petal… P Phelan dist…10/1

    Good Luck

    Mike

  2. Disastrous Christmas period, new bank required, would appreciate any thoughts on a new basic strategy to start again with, thanks all

    1. Hi James,
      It does depend on what your strategy has been up to this point! 🙂

      Personally it’s been tough for me for a while, which is clear and is starting to weigh down a bit but that’s life – it’s been crap, mediocre, but far from disastrous as yet – some variance, some just luck which evens out (5 of those 28 placed horses winning in main bets and suddenly it’s a decent enough year/50+ points/fine margins – and whatever your strategy is, working out if there’s just some luck in there as reason for being bad), mixed in with some mental/strategic frailties of my own which i’m trying to overcome – this sport/punting/analysis is very very testing at times and it’s been a trudge for a while. In part you have to work out what is just ‘that’s racing’ in terms of approach, and what may actually need to change. All you can do is reflect and try to work harder but in terms of on here bar the large group that have been around since the beginning, i’m on borrowed time with the rest and indeed some of the long suffering members. But that’s the game. A +90 point Jan and a +80 point Festival awaits! 🙂

      As context, it seems to have been a tough year at times for a few people/services I trust/respect that have had 3/4/8 years of long term success say. One I can think of hit a -70 point loss from their high in May, but yearly profit is ok, another in last 12-16 months has had x2 -50 point, another -40 downturns etc etc – we will all have -40-70/80 downturns at some point I think, that’s just the way it is, however much we wish against it, and whatever the strategy may be. With a ‘value’ approach you can depend on a handful of big priced winners and if they don’t come, you can be in the shit – how to alleviate that i’m not quite sure.

      Anyway… back to your question…

      Firstly you’ve got to work out a ‘way in’ I think to shortlisting say – if we are talking about finding your own bets etc – specialising in a certain race type/code (i think limiting to one area, even if just jumps handicaps say, could help) , stats etc – I mean given the research on the ratings pointers you could just focus on those stats quals with H1/H3 next to their name as a way in. That’s my starting point with the new ‘best of’ and we shall see how that goes. I will review some of the ‘strategies’ etc but as with everything else they haven’t lived up to 2018, but haven’t been totally horrendous, but not great either.

      Less can be more – you either go for lots of action/high turnover, or less is more – i’m of the latter but we are all different.

      There’s always the ‘unexposed vs exposed’ debate and its a case of how to attack that and whether you’re very strict, but I think trying to focus on 80% of bets say on horses that are lightly raced/you think more to come isn’t a bad starting point.

      You could just focus on races with X number of runners – 8<, 12< and be strict with it. Certain class esof race etc etc. Focusing on those that may lead/race prominently and being strict with that also. For example. So, there's options, and mapping out your 'what races to bet in' rules is never a bad thing to do for anyone. There's no easy way to win long term at this game sadly, which is why only 2/3% of punters do, and these very tough/awful periods are sent to test us. Naturally, as it has done with me in recent months, you ponder plenty to try and work out how to improve your approach etc, it will all turn, at some point, but when it goes on for an age, it's natural to question everything. That answer may be of no use at all but some initial thoughts anyway. Josh

      1. Thanks Josh, I like ‘less can be more’ and a focus on unexposed, will set up a new bank and hope for better in the New Year!

    2. A strategy I use for calculating my bank and staking would be to calculate your maximum expected losing streak and then double it. Now take your bank size and divide by the losing streak number, this would give your stake and bet to level stakes. You can of course tweak to suit but it does give you a ball park figure to start at. Some may say start off with say 1 or 2% of your bank which is fine I guess but it’s always good to have an idea of how long your losing streaks may be so it doesn’t mess with your head when they happen. If your maximum expected losing streaks are below 20 I would say you dont have enough data or something else isn’t quite right.

      1. Thanks, good advice on the bank, this is roughly what I work to, think I’ll tread cautiously for a whole with a smaller bank and lower stakes until I see an improvement

  3. James
    This is no strategy but some small change ew on BIG TIME FRANK 2.55 T might ease the pain. It is due me a win or at least a place.

    Mike

  4. COLINS BETS
    4.00 Taunton Lightly Squeezed 15/8

    TIP TOP
    4.00 Taunton Lightly Squeezed 15/8

    ARUBA
    3.20 Lingfield Fair Power 15/2
    4.00 Taunton Lightly Squeezed 15/8
    Colin

  5. The method that i will start on 1st of January does have the starting point of Elite, which is having another winning month, so have decided to put up these selections and hope that they are has successful as Elite, once again time will tell! but are a different selection process after the starting point.
    Todays selections are
    12.05 Lingfield Subliminal 4/1
    1.05 Lingfield Prince Rock 3/1
    1.30 Haydock Ebony Jewel 9/4
    Advice is to watch them for will not be recording them until 1st of January.
    Colin.

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