Members Daily Post: 29/12/19 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 23/164, 48p +12.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.45 Donc – KINGS MONARCH – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365) 15/2 (WH/UniB/Coral) 7/1 (others) PU – woeful in truth, never really travelled or jumped that well- clouted a few – not sure if the ground or what. Boldmere has bolted up and relished the trip. 

That’s all for today, as of 09.15, write up at bottom of post…

 

Best of The Stats? (test: 0/1, 1p; -1) 

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Doncaster

2.45 –

Allelu Alleluia (micro age) 25/1 S2A PU

Lithic (m age) I3 7/1  UP

 

Kelso

12.15 –

Sophie Fatale (m runs) I3 15/2 UP

Rubytwo (all Hc’s) ES+ H3 I3 G1 7/2 S3A# S4 UP

12.50 – (5 runners) 

Vengeur De Guye (m -class) w2 I1 4/1 UP

Clan Legend (m runs) H3 I3 G3 7/2 S4 WON 7/2>3/1 

Goldencard (all Hc’s) w2 H1 I3 G1 15/8 S4 2nd

2.35 –

Bialco (m TJC and -class) H3 10/1 WON 10/1 >15/2 

Sidi Ismael (all Hc’s) G1 8/1 PU

3.10 – Misfits (m dist and -class) 11/2 UP

 

Limerick

2.55 – Cahirdown Boy (HcH) ES+ 12/1 S3A UP

3.30 – Northern Love (HcH) ES+ 16/1 S2A S3A  WON 16/1>20/1 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

12.50 Kel – Goldencard (11/1<) H1 I1 G1 15/8 2nd

1.35 Donc – Holly Flight (11/1<) G3  66/1 UP

2.00 Kel- Senor Lombardy (11/1<) I3 G3 12/1 UP

2.00 Kel – Smiths Cross (any odds) 7/1 UP

 

LTO Winners Starting Point (12/1<) 

2.45 Donc – Boldmere H1 G3 3/1  WON 3/1>11/4 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.45 Donc – Boldmere (17/2<) 3/1 H1 G3 WON 3/1>11/4 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

2.00 Kel- Smiths Cross 7/1 UP

12.10 Leop – Onefortheroadtom H1 6/1 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

A -0.7 point loss on the ‘ITV Races through the card’ so not much to report there – one more winner away from a good day. That’s x2 of those done now… 3/12,6p,+1.3 . 

The chaser to take from those races is probably Copperhead who’s shaping into a lovely horse – he has a good way of going, just lobbing through his races and his jumping is improving – he has bolted up there and looks a big strapping type. You do wonder if he may make up into a ‘Hennessy’ horse or even a Welsh National type down the line. He is only 5 though but carrying weight is clearly no problem. A shame he wasn’t 9/2+ … i’m not sure I ever think 3s / 7/2 is overpriced in a 26f handicap chase around Newbury, especially for a non- front runner. The time to back him was the run before but alas. In any case, he’s an exciting handicapper to follow and it will be interesting to see where they go with him next/how patient they are. 

Indy Five was running a superb race and would have been 2nd or 3rd but for coming down. The yard are still not firing on all cylinders but this was much more promising, on his preferred softer ground. He should find a smaller field that he can dominate in the weeks ahead, with no other pace pushers. 

Moving In Style keeps running as if he’s got an ok staying handicap in him and he won’t bump into a Copperhead every time, but each chase takes something out of a horse. He’s hard to weigh up but jumps, travels and stays. 

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Tips write up…

2.45 Donc – Kings Monarch 

I’ve decided I wanted to take the top two on in this, despite their unexposed profiles – Spiders Bite seems short given that he can hit a fence hard, as he did at Ludlow and two out at Ascot – It’s his first chase LH and i’m also not convinced as to his attitude – you can tell he’s a Scorpion I think- there’s something about him that makes me want to take him on at 3s. The yard are in form and he’s unexposed, so no shock, but not for me. 

Boldmere is interesting but 7/2 didn’t seem overpriced given he’s up 10lb but more importantly up 1/2 a mile in trip, which is a bit of an unknown – the sort i’d want a bigger price on. Going LH looks sure to suit given how he jumped at Leic and he wasn’t stopping come the line. 

Kings Monarch is the one at the prices I want to take them on with. He arrives in some sort of form having run well at Haydock in a decent enough chase – the front 3 miles clear of the rest and he wasn’t stopping come the line. I’m not sure he fully stayed the trip and this galloping/flat 3m on GS may be ideal for him – but he chased home Moving In Style who ran well at Newbury yesterday, with Perfect Candidate out staying the pair of them. 

He’s only 6 and he’s 2/9,3p in handicap chases to date, his mark now down to 122 having gone up to 130 at Cheltenham last April – where he ran well in a decent enough race – 2m4f around there on Good seemed too sharp, staying on well up the hill. Mr Whitaker won that and he wasn’t that far behind Highway One O One who’s run a couple of decent placed efforts since. This race isn’t as strong as that and is over a more suitable trip. That run was on the back of two ‘bolt up’ jobs over fences, the second of which at Hereford when beating a solid enough Nicholls horse who’d win his next start and has placed since of similar marks. At his best he jumps and he gallops, and he should arrive in peak fitness. I’d be surprised if Jamie didn’t have him further forward here, tracking the pace. 122 should be within range given his profile and some of his RPRs – 128 Chelt, 135 at Hereford, 125 LTO. 

The yard are going well enough and recently had a chase winner here on the 14th. In fact Kerry is 13/37, 20p, +40 with here 6 YO handicap chasers in the last 5 years, 7/17, 9p in class 3, 7/22,9p with Jamie up. 

I didn’t really like the rest at the prices…

Bob Mahler I didn’t think was overpriced as such. He’s solid and won for us at Cheltenham but he’s 3lb above his last winning mark and i’m not sure as the strength of his overall form. He does need more but Paddy B will suit him I think as he can be a bit lazy. Were he a few points bigger i’d have been pondering and if the front two flop, he could rate as the main danger. He is down in class also. I preferred Kings at a couple of points bigger. 

First Drift is worth tracking for the future as he’s lightly raced with some OK form in the book – we’re guessing as to fitness on first start for the yard, who’re not in the best of form either. And he’s a stamina question. One for a few runs down the line hopefully. 

Pace wise… well no out and out front runners in this. Kings has tracked the pace before and under Moore- and he generally likes to be aggressive – I wouldn’t be shocked if he booted him out – but Spider’s Bite may be up there, and Paddy B may be aggressive on Bob. Slanelogh and Lithic are usually held up/ridden more patiently, as is Allelu A. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • No pocket talk at all here guys, just seeing thoughts about Apples Jade if any1 has an opinion cus i dont know what to make of it myself. Pre race obviously thought 3/1 or more was stealing money if you knew she was going to run to form
    But you could never back on those past 2 races, bit of a further trip but ran like a total different horse today
    The price being smashed in is the thing, very strange

    Ryan Mercer 28/12/19 11:21 PM Reply


    • I don’t think connections really knew what to expect – Michael O’Leary was there and he rarely ventures to the track these days – and given what he said after I think it was because they thought it may be her last race- if she’d have shown no interest again they’d have retired her there and then – they couldn’t explain recent efforts and thought she was telling them she’d had enough.

      She is a mare, and they can be in and out , but two things appear to have sparked her up –
      1. the cheekpieces – and we saw what impact that had with Super at Kempton when also given an aggressive ride, as Apples was – they seemed to help her.
      2. She’d been out with the local hunt a few days before I think, and that change of scenery/routine/environment/day out appears to have worked some magic also

      She was entitled to beat that lot in that manner at her best but yep predicting so would be tricky – the team at home would know, esp usual work rider, if she felt any different on last piece of work ‘was back to best’ etc – but Giggy are not a gambling operation by all accounts, unlike the green and gold – but maybe the right money came from somewhere. Horses make us all look silly often enough. If you’re wading into that sort at 6/4, given last two runs, without being connected to yard say, i’m not sure it ends well long term! 🙂

      Josh 29/12/19 8:14 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet

    TIP TOP
    2.35 Kelso Bialco 9/1

    ARUBA
    No bet
    Colin

    cleafe 29/12/19 10:04 AM Reply


  • 12:10 Leopardstown
    RED JACK 1pt win 12/1
    If he stays on his feet, he wins this, so, the reasoning behind it is that he does travel really well within races and his fall four out LTO was encouraging as if he`d have stayed on his feet I believe he would have won. With that in mind the price is in built into those errors, so, 12/1 is value
    FINAL LISt 1pt win 14/1 gen
    Only because Mr Elliott is flying at Leopardstown would I be backing this, unexposed, cheekpieces fitted to sharpen him up and the fact Mr Elliott was quoted as saying he still has to find a race for him, means there are big things in the offing for this one, 14/1 is cracking value.

    I agree with Josh in the race at Doncaster and would put BOB MAHLER in the mix also, think he may take some catching!
    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.

    Stewart 29/12/19 11:34 AM Reply


    • Terrible race, what was i thinking….Christmas hangover set in now…haha

      Stewart 29/12/19 12:39 PM Reply


    • Final List will win one, maybe something in January as he did quite well, up with the pace, but, when the button was pressed, there was very little.

      Stewart 29/12/19 12:47 PM Reply


  • still playing around with my selection process and a staking plan but recent results have been encouraging. Iam backing them to small stakes whilst still monitoring them.
    Doncaster.
    11-55. Same Circus 20-1 £2 ew
    12-25. Maire Banrigh 3-1 £3 win
    2-45. Catamaran Du Seuil 6-1 £2 ew
    3-20. Shanroe Tic Tec 9-1 £2ew
    Leop.
    12-10. Colms Dream 50-1 £1 ew , think this popped up because it won an almost identical race 3.5 years ago.

    martin 29/12/19 11:52 AM Reply


    • whoops forgot Limerick.
      1-45. Surin 2-1 £4 win
      3-30. Seskin Flyer 6-1 £2 ew

      martin 29/12/19 11:55 AM Reply


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