Members Daily Post: 28/12/19 (complete)

ITV races ‘through the card’ – Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 23/163, 48p +13.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None today. 

 

Best of The Stats? (test: 0/1, 1p; -1) 

None, nothing jumping out at the prices to my eyes.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Newbury

12.05 – Vienna Court (hncp h) I1 G3 3/1 2nd 

1.50 – One For Rosie (hncp h) H1 I3 4/1  UP

2.25 – 

Copperhead (hncp c + m class) 14H1 I3 G1 7/2 S4 WON 7/2<3/1

Strong Pursuit (m TJC) G3 13/2 UP

 

Catterick

12.10  – Pinch of Ginger (m class) H1 5/2  WON 5/1 

 

Leicester

3.15 – Ballyellis (all hncps) ES+ H1 9/2 S3A 2nd 

 

Irish Bonus Stats 

1.40 Lim – The Reaping Race (hncp h) ES+  14/1 S3A UP

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TTP Chase Micros

1.20 Catt – Whats The Scoop (any odds) H1 G3 9/4 UP

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainer 

3.35 Newb – Down The Highway (14/1<) 11/1  UP

 

December Pointers

Owner

12.50 Leop –  ALL UP

  • A Great View 16/1 
  • Mon Lino 33/1 
  • Rock De Baune 7/1 
  • Scoir Mear 33/1 
  • Sire Du Berlais  H3 16/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

12.10 Catt – Pinch Of Ginger (14/1<) H1 5/2 WON 5/1 

1.15 Newb – Vado Forte (13/2 <) H3 12/1 3rd 7/1 

2.25 Newb- Copperhead (14/1<) H1 I3 G1 7/2 WON 7/2>3/1 

2.25 Newb – Strong Pursuit (14/1<) G3 13/2 UP

2.25 Newb – Polydora (13/2<)  5/1 UP

3.35 Newb – Tidal Flow (14/1<) H1 I1 G1 7/2 2nd 

3.35 Newb – Kateson (13/2<) H3 G3 11/2 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.25 Newb- Copperhead H1 I3 G1 7/2 WON 7/2>3/1 

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Chase Eye-Catcher 2019/20 

2.25 Newb – Forgot To Ask 14/1 3rd / Moving In Style H3 I3 7/1 2nd 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

ITV Races ‘Through The Card’ ( running total x2… 3/12,6p,+1.3)

2/7, 4p…  -0.7

1.50 Newb – Soul Emotion 8/1 3rd 

Henderson’s won two of the seven renewals of this and the yard are in decent form, 11/40, 14p last 14 days. This horse is smart and may make up into a decent chaser in time. He’s clearly had a few problems but was tenderly handled on his return and this may have been the plan – he decimated a decent handicap field at Sandown off 10lb lower before running well in The Long Walk. He’s one to track whatever he does today but he could be the classy horse in the race. 

2.10 Ling – Sir Prize 9/1 UP

Ah an AW C4 handicap, just my cup of tea… (cue only winner on the day!)… the booking of Kirby caught the eye, I suppose as it always does at Lingfield and is a decent ‘way in’ , especially as he hasn’t ridden him before. He’s 3/8,5p in CD C4 handicaps, which is very micro – 7/22,12p over CD on 4 year olds. This horse is consistent and if he could transfer his Kempton form to here he’d go well – the form of the race three starts back has worked out well and along with his LTO RPR would suggest this mark is workable. Looks an open/trappy race though. 

2.25 Newb – Copperhead – 10/3 WON 7/2>3/1 

The sort I don’t really want to wade into at his price, nor am that enthusiastic about taking on. The yard are in form as is he- he’s young, progressive, won fairly comfortably LTO and I suspect this track will suit more. He’s going the right way and shouldn’t be far away. But he is only 5 and a chance I suppose he doesn’t back up that run. If he doesn’t perform it then looks rather open. 

Of the outsiders… interesting that Indy Five has been backed from 33s>16s, I assume maybe tipped somewhere or Dennis is planning on paying for Xmas – he did show up better for a long way LTO before falling in a hole. He’s clearly had problems and it’s hard to know what to expect from him – but he’s a course winner who may appreciate this softer ground, and he may have been aimed at this, left with plenty to work on the last twice. IF he ever rediscovers his form he’d be thrown in from this mark. 

2.40 Leic – Glance Back – 6/1 2nd 6/1 

Another trappy looking race – it’s hard to know what this one beat LTO but the performance on ‘the figures’ (inc HRB /Inform Speed ratings / RPR – career best) would suggest that it was solid – at least he’s fit, in form, has course form and races prominently. It could be he’s been crying out for 20f on soft and that’s transformed him, although the race did fall apart at Southwell. You could make a case for a few in here but I thought he could have been underestimated. 

3.00 Newb – Thyme Hill – 4/5 WON 4/6 

Probably not a betting race to my eyes – more a case of whether this one can confirm his promise and build on his decent level of form already. On Official Ratings he’s the best in here on what they’ve done to date, with the promise of more to come. He will bolt up I think, or it will be another bubble burst. 

3.15 Leic – Master Apprentice – 5/2  UP

Progressive, in form, yard in form, Aidan Coleman booked – he shouldn’t be far away here at all. Little Rory Mac is no doubt still well handicapped but he can be keen and in this ground/the hill, won’t want to waste too much energy. 

3.35 Newb – Down The Highway – 12/1 UP

A risky one to finish given his chase form to date but Lavelle won this race last year with De Rasher Counter and he’s turned out to be fairly good! It could be he badly needed his return or didn’t like the track. At Chepstow he travelled/jumped well for a long way before fading/PU from 5 out or so- it turns out he pulled off a shoe and came back sore, which could be the valid excuse. He’s got some decent hurdles form and looks a strapping big chaser in the making. It may not be today but in what seems an open race, he may be worth a poke at a price. 

Of the shorter priced ones i’d fancy Tidal Flow – Henderson’s is clearly well regarded but 3s on chase debut always seems short to my eyes. 

We shall see how they all get on.

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. AW T/T

    If anyone is following the above there haven’t been any selections for the past 2 days and none for Sat either.
    I will update the figures on the 2nd or 3rd Jan I have 2, my grandchildren, staying with me until then. If there are any sel between now and then I will put them up.

    All have a good new year.

    Mike

  2. had a couple of free £15 bets today and have gone for:
    Newbury.
    2-25. Copperhead 7-2
    3-35. Tidal Flow 7-2

    I do like a bit of a mystery and couldn’t for the life of me work out why Gary Moore was running Honourable in the 2-10 Lingfield his last 8 races have all been over hurdles and it would be kind to say that form has been moderate, last seen on the flat over 18 months ago when 4th in a much better race in France. available at 25-1 any market move should be noted.

  3. COLINS BETS
    No bet

    TIP TOP
    2.30 Catterick Adherence 15/8

    ARUBA
    2.10 Lingfield Arabic Culture 5/1
    2.30 Catterick Adherence 15/8
    2.40 Leicester Eureu Du Boulay 9/2
    3.35 Newbury Tidal Flow 4/1
    Colin

    1. iv done similar put the 3 biggest odds in a £1 patent
      i think Copperhead can keep going aswel was way too good for the field the last race
      iv put him in a treble with Kemboy, which if you watch last years Savills chase then 2/1 looks a bet with how he left some of these behind
      Thyme hill completes £5 treble

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