Members Daily Post: 27/12/19 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 23/163, 48p +13.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.50 Chepstow 

#1 – SPACE CADET – 1 point EW –  33/1>16/1 UP, poor. 

#2 – THE TWO AMIGOS – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365) 16/1 (gen) , 5th 8/1, led, ran well, no excuse.  

that’s all for main chase tips

 

Best of The Stats? (test: 0/1, 1p; -1) 

None today. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Chepstow

1.05 – Eceparti (micro dist)14,30 w1 w2 H1 I1 Evens UP

2.10 – Clyne (m class) G1 6/1 2nd 

 

Kempton

3.05 – Quarenta (m class move) w1 H1 I3 7/1 2nd

3.35 – Chance A Tune (m TJC) 8/1 

 

Wetherby 

3.15 -Final Fling (hncp h) H3 I1 5/1 UP

 

Irish Bonus Stats

3.10 Lim – 

Alfred Wegener (hncp h) ES+  14/1 S3A UP

Sol Milan (hncp h) ES+  22/1 S2A S3A UP

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TTP Chase Micros

1.05 Chep – Springtown Lake (any, 8/1< best) H3 G1 9/2 UP

3.25 Chep – Samburu Shujaa (any, 8/1< best) H3 3/1 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

1.05 Chep – One For Billy 16/1 

2.50 Chep – Potters Corner (any odds) 8/1 WON 8/1 

2.40 Weth – Lamanver Odyssey (13/1<) 8/1 2nd 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

3.05 Kemp – Sametegal 11/2 UP/ Just A Sting 9/2 G3 WON 9/2 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

1.05 Chep – Kayf Adventure G3 9/1 UP

2.05 Weth – Azzuri I3 G3 13/2 UP

2.55 Leop – Plan Of Attack 18/1 3rd 

3.05 Kemp – Belami Des Pictons H3 G3 9/4 UP / Just A Sting 9/2 G3 WON 9/2 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Welsh National 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • Elegant Escape (last year’s winner) / West Approach 
  • Truckers Lodge / Yala Enki 
  • Pop Rockstar
  • Arthurs Gift 

 

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The Welsh National 

I’ll start with the obvious… Elegant Escape… who is the strongest stayer in the race and is clearly the classiest. If you’re on at 10s/14s then well done, alas i’m not and I have to take him on at 3s although he could take this very well, given the lack of depth. This is no Hennessy field and he may well have won that with a stronger pace to aim at/much softer ground. He does have to lug around 11-12 in what will be testing enough ground- softer than last year and he is 9lb higher, 4lb in actual weight, although has likely improved again. He can hit the odd fence and is usually ridden patiently, so there’s some hope for those of us wanting to take him on, and in the final 2/3f that weight, in heavy, may slow him down. It may not. While i’m happy to take him on I did want one biggie onside EW and my pin landed on…

Space Cadet – he’ looked worth a go at 33s, 6.6/1 the place, especially if you ignore the fav he has some of the strongest handicap chase form in this – you do have to look back to late 2017/early 2018 to find it, when trained by Gordon Elliot – but he has some ‘staying on’ efforts in heavy in some of their premier handicaps. He was moved to his new trainer who appears to have rekindled some enthusiasm with two point wins, before a staying on 4th in another decent handicap chase LTO, in 1st CP. The trainer also had a facile winner yesterday which is a positive, as is the fact Mark Enright makes the trip over – he’s probably one of the best Irish jockeys who can do low weights and i’m sure he’d have had options back home. He’s ridden the horse before and I hope he may track the pace. If EE underperforms, or his jumping is scrappy, or he empties late on, he could pick up the pieces- if he jumps around and runs his race i’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t hit the first 5 as I think he will stay better than plenty in here and he has nothing on his back. 

The Two Amigos – he may well not be good enough here and clearly needs to step up but he will relish the ground, stay, he’s a very good jumper at his best and he will race on the front end – or try to.  At 16s I thought he was worth a stab and he’s only 7 – there could be more to come and I suspect he’s another marathon chase in him this season. He ran ok at Fontwell, on his second start back, possibly still needing it a bit although he was carrying 12-1. He will appreciate this lighter weight on his back. He looked a lively outsider to my eyes and can hopefully be leading turning for home. 

Pace/race set up… Well The Two Amigos will try and lead in a race packed with plenty of hold up types (on paper at least). I suspect Bryony will have Yala Enki forward enough also and it could be those two bowling along. However whenever I think there could be an ‘easy lead’ of sorts in races like this it never works out, as many jockeys seem to want a prominent early position and can be aggressive early. I don’t know what they will do with Space Cadet but he’s been both held up mid div and ridden more prominently in those races mentioned above. He may be able to hold a position easier over this trip, we shall see. 

Best of luck, 

Josh 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

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  • nice touch on Commanche Red yesterday and have had a good look at Chepstow not much value about but i do like Carnspindle 20-1 in the 2-10 at the weights, in the welsh national i’m having trouble seeing past Elegant Escape saying that the Skeltons Captain Chaos 20-1 caught my eye.

    martin 27/12/19 2:17 AM Reply


  • Three I like today are Chesterfield (Wetherby 14:05), Sykes (Chepstow 14:10) and Captain Chaos (Welsh National) all 1pt e/w

    I’ll try and post more going forward but suspect it will be limited to weekends and am on holiday for the next couple.

    NickM 27/12/19 8:06 AM Reply


  • Hi,

    Anyone else experiencing difficulties with HRB this morning i.e. today’s cards/ratings have not been updated?

    Joe H 27/12/19 9:25 AM Reply


    • yep, they were there last night, but appear to have disappeared today/reverted to yesterday’s.
      If you search for any horse running today, click on them, next to their name is a blue link ‘entry tomorrow in X’ – click on that and will be taken to race, and from drop down you can access them all.
      can’t get any system quals up though, no idea how to do that

      Josh 27/12/19 9:32 AM Reply


      • See if the HRB backup site works, usually works ok when difficulties occur

        handbag 27/12/19 10:16 AM Reply


        • Sorted now – email to Chris he responded within minutes. Fair play to him – runs a tight ship!
          Heading to Leop today & tomorrow if anyone has any insights pls?

          Joe H 27/12/19 10:42 AM Reply


  • 14:50 Chepstow
    YALA ENKI 1pt win 8/1 gen
    TRUCKERS LODGE 1pt win 11/1 gen

    14:55 Leopardstown
    POKER PARTY 1pt win 11/1 gen
    LIVELOVELAUGH 1pt win 33/1 gen
    ROARING BULL 1pt win 33/1 gen

    write ups maybe to follow, will try my best, but, got a house full of guests..

    Stewart 27/12/19 9:33 AM Reply


    • Nice one Stewart. Quality picks there!

      James Gilbert 27/12/19 3:12 PM Reply


    • Well done Stewart. Another big Irish winner, your eyes seem to work particularly well with those! Great efforts in Welsh also. Top work.

      Josh 27/12/19 3:16 PM Reply


    • Apologies for no write ups, but, sat basking in the adoration of my guests also as we cheered both Yala and Truckers on to then Roar on Roaring Bull in the race at Leopardstown. Think I made a few pwoples Christmas with that one!!

      Stewart 27/12/19 5:28 PM Reply


      • Plus I have now had a few…Merry Christmas everyone!!

        Stewart 27/12/19 5:29 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet

    TIP TOP
    2.50 Chepstow Elegant Escape 3/1

    ARUBA
    3.25 Chepstow Clondaw Anchor 7/2
    Colin.

    cleafe 27/12/19 10:10 AM Reply


  • 2:50 Chepstow Pop Rockstar e/w

    handbag 27/12/19 10:18 AM Reply


  • Irish ew L15 for a bit of fun.
    Limerick
    12-50. Toushan 14-1
    3-10. Fairymount Boy 18-1
    Leop.
    2-20. Ejayteekay 50-1
    2-55. Robin De Foret 18-1

    martin 27/12/19 10:42 AM Reply


  • 2.50C – Prime Venture 9/1

    qwert1 27/12/19 11:14 AM Reply


  • Elegant Escape is one of my favourites and I’d like to see him win, but also on an e/w double The Two Amigos 14/1 with Robin des Foret 20/1 GL

    James Barker 27/12/19 11:40 AM Reply


    • 5th and 6th, both ran well, place part of double paid out

      James Barker 27/12/19 4:30 PM Reply


  • An impossible race in the Paddy Power Chase 2.55 Leopardstown but I thought Robin Des Foret ran a great race at Cheltenham lto and has good win and place form in this sort of ground and field size. Never run at Leopardstown but no reason to think it won’t suit. Derek O’Connor up 20/1.
    Hugh

    alpha2 27/12/19 12:17 PM Reply


  • Welsh GN Prime Venture

    Geoff W 27/12/19 12:21 PM Reply


  • Dont know if iv gone barmy but watched replays for a bit this morning and iv ended up backing West Approach for Welsh National
    Think it could improve for the trip, obvs a very strong traveller and disn’t seem to be stopping when won at Chelts and was still staying on the last race when 3rd, hopefully still has the pace on proper soft ground. i like Scudamore in the long distance races and everyone knows how to ride him now so fingers crossed runs a biggun and doesn’t come down
    Others, thought Truckers Lodge seems to go really well in the bad ground and is very much unexposed. Now Mcginty’s form stacks up really well now looking back at it, agree with Nick on Captain Chaos as seemed to go much better its last run in cheekpeices and in heavy ground staying on
    Hopefully West Approach is still travelling well towards the end, gets a bit of weight from the top of the card
    Agree Epegant Escape could just hit the front on the straight and grind it out to the line but less that 3/1 in a race like this

    Ryan Mercer 27/12/19 2:12 PM Reply


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