Boxing Day 2019: (complete)

All Tipsx3 + write up, ITV ‘through the card’, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 23/161, 48p +16.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.00 Wincanton 

#1 – JOHANOS – 1 point win – 15/2 (bet365/betfS/PP) 13/2 (others) UP, poor. 

#2 – BROADCLYST – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 2nd, neck, 8/1, painful, esp the UR/interference from loose horse down the back but that’s racing. Sadly the blinkers worked their oracle on the winner, good ride from BF. 

 

2.15 Market R 

#3 – ZERACHIEL – 1 point win – 15/2 (bet365/BV) 7/1 (gen) UP, poor. 

 

 

Best of The Stats? (test: 0/1, 1p; -1) 

None today.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Fontwell

1.50 – Sky Full Of Stars (micro distance) G3 15/2 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

3.35 –

Kalarika (m LTO) w1 5/1 

Lee Side Lady (m runs) ES+ H3 G1 11/1 S1 S3A# 

 

Kempton

3.40 – Our Power (m TJC) I3 14/1 

 

Market Rasen

2.15 – Very First Time (m runs) w1 w2 ES+ H1 I1 7/4  S3A#

3.25 – King D’argent (m runs) ES+ I3 9/1 S3A

 

Sedgefield

11.50 –

That’s My Dubai (HcH) 9/2 

Bertie Blake (HcH) 11/1 

2.05 – Indian Brave (all Hc’s) ES+ G1 11/2 S3A (S1 if 11.00+ BFSP) 

2.40 –

Lord Roccoco (HcH) H3 9/2 

Nicely Indeed (HcH) 11/1 

 

Wetherby

1.35 –

Beau Bay (all Hc’s) H3 13/2 

Niven (all Hc’s) G3 16/1 S1 S2A 

2.10 – Top Ville Ben (all Hc’s) L H1 I1 11/4 

 

Wincanton

2.00 – Worthy Farm (m TJC) I3 6/1 

3.10 – Saintemilion (m TJC) 5/1 

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TTP Chase Micros

12.55 Sedge – Two Hoots 9/4 

1.20 Kemp – Doctor Dex  H1 9/1 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

December Pointers 

Owner

2.55 Leop – Rock The World 16/1 

1.25 Winc – Collooney 7/1  / Duc De Beauchene 9/4 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

LTO Winners Starting Point (12/1<) 

1.50 Font – Flaminger L H1 I3 4/6 

Trainers

12.30 Weth – Monbeg Aquadude 10/1 

1.40 MR – Sonic (14/1<)  I3 8/1 

2.10 Weth – Jonniesofa 13/2 

 

LTO Winning Trainers

1.05 MR – Zolfo H1 G3 I1 7/4 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.00 Winc – Pres (17/2< guide) 15/2 

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Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

1.40 MR – Oscar Wilde  5/1 

2.00 Winc – Cesar Et Rosalie H3 G3 12/1 / Findusatgorcombe L H3 G1 I3 8/1 

3.10 Winc – West To The Bridge H3 G3 3/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

2.10 Wetherby 

Trainers (to have won race/with runners) 

  • Bennys King 
  • Lake View Lad (last year’s winner) 
  • Wakanda/ I Just Know 

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ITV Races ‘Through The Card’ 

all the usual caveats… these are not ‘tips’ and it’s is a bit of fun, and I haven’t spent overly long flicking through… occasionally these ‘through the cards’ find 2/3 winners, sometimes a blow-out….

1.20 K – Simply The Betts – 5/1

1.55 K – Danny Whizzbang – 11/2

2.10 W – Bennys King – 4/1

2.30 K – Fusil Raffles – 2/1 

3.05 K – Clans Des Obeaux – 6/1

(I don’t have any strong views on the KG really – unless you’re on something AP at decent odds, the market is now well formed and doesn’t look a betting race to my eyes – as yet haven’t bet a penny on it – you’d think it’s between the top two and in jumps G1s, heading for the top rated/two rated on BHA ratings is usually a wise move  – I don’t have any concerns for the trip with Cyrname but he does still have it to prove, and at G1 level and thus I couldn’t wade in at 11/8. Lost In Translation is a lovely horse, a superb jumper, and wont be far away at all – just whether Cobden can dictate and then kick – but he’s shown plenty of speed. I’m finding it hard to split the two but maybe if Cyrname can get an easy lead it swings it in his favour.  Clans is still open to improvement and is last year’s winner- 6s does look a shade overpriced but it’s a race i’ll sit back and enjoy) 

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Tips Write ups…

2.00 Wincanton…

Johanos – an open enough race on paper but i’ve gone for two whose better days over fences should be ahead of them and they will prove to be well handicapped at some point. Johanos has some decent form to his name, plenty of it ‘hot’ and the mud shouldn’t be a problem. That form and some of his RPRs suggest he’s well handicapped and even more so with the jockeys 7lb off. Of course that means he’s inexperienced but he is 1/9,4p in handicap chases, the horse has been a sound jumper to date and he tends to gallop away on the front end. I thought 15/2 looked a few points too big given that he could show himself to be well handicapped now, for his in-form yard. 

Broadclyst – a bit of a riskier one but at 12s I couldn’t help myself. His trainer can ready them and when looking through his form he’s gone well/won after lengthy breaks before in Points. A couple of those point wins were on soft and his sire’s produced a few mud lovers – heavy is a question but I thought it was built into the price. Given his ‘gone well fresh’ profile I thought the yard would have him spot on. He looks a fine strapping horse when watching his replays who generally jumps well. Again he’s some hot form which suggests a mark of 117 should be well within range one day – in that Ludow maiden hurdle he chased home horses who’s be rated in the 130s within a few starts. His rules chase debut LTO is working out well and Pop Rockstar would win his next start, indicating he’d bumped into a well handicapped one also. 7 subsequent winners have come out of that race. Bryan Carver is solid enough and when teaming up with C Down in the last year he’s 3/8,5p – a booking which makes me suggest he would be ready today. Given he’s run cracking races at 40s (3rd Lud) and 33s (LTO) i’m not that fussed what the market does although any support would be more exciting. 

Of the rest… Le Boizelo is the right fav and he won fairly well LTO but is open to attack from something with more in hand. His mark wouldn’t have stopped him LTO (although jockey couldn’t claim there) and i’m not really sure what he’s beaten. But he will have some pace to sit behind here. 

The two ‘annoying’ winners would be Cesar Et Rosalie and Findusatgorcome –  i’m waiting for the former to go back LH and i’m not sure he wants a bog, and he does need more from this mark- I wasn’t sure why he’d improve on his effort LTO unless he’s wanted heavy all his life – he does get 1st CP but the yard are a bit quiet also. I was happy to leave as I was Frosts horse who i’d be more interested in dropped in class and with an easy lead – again heavy ground is a complete unknown with him, which made 7s or so this morning seem about right. His light weight may help but again he is open to attack from classier horses/something with more in hand and that Exeter win hasn’t worked out that well as yet. 

I didn’t like the rest at all really at the prices and if something beats me so be it. 

2.15 MR

Zerachiel – I thought he should be second fav in this based on his second in the race last year. That followed a similar path, having UR early on his seasonal return, much like this year. I thought this must have been a plan and the CP return which may indicate as much. He jumped well in this last year and maybe the ground/trip helps him – he’s got some decent staying form to his name and has that decent mix – enough chase runs where he’s battle hardened for a test like this, but still with some youth on his side (age 9, 14th chase start) Charlie Todd is making a good name for himself also and that claim may help – it means he’s 10lb less in actual weight on his back than last year. His running style/the pace set up also lured me in – he does stay 30f and can race up there – IF Charlie wanted to lead I thought he may be able to – in any case he should be in the right spot and i’d like him to take it up at some point and kick on early. All this one does is gallop and stay, provided he stays on his feet. 

In last year’s race he bumped into a well handicapped one from team Skelton, the front two miles clear. There’s a chance that same scenario plays out here – Very First Time is the right fav I think given his form, although not overpriced. He did win a handicap chase off 124 for Tim Easterby so I don’t think this mark will stop him. But, he’s got a new jockey on, he does have to prove his stamina, is up 10b from LTo and that wasn’t the best of races. Still, he couldn’t have done any more. I wanted to take him on at the price which may seem foolish enough come the end, as I curse not backing Z each-way! 🙂 On what they’ve done to date the selection is the proven stronger stayer, and with track position, I hope he may grind hime into the MR mud. 

Of the rest… Trip For Rio doesn’t have enough experience for me for a 5s shot, but of course that does mean he’s unexposed. I was happy to leave those aged 10+ who seem on the way down/need more. And I could leave Cyclop at his price given his recent form but he’s won this race before and clearly stays. I thought something with more class may have him. 

Hugo N Taz is the ‘could be anything/interesting’ one- first start for Pipe, had a wind op etc – the yard are in flying form and they may have a well handicapped one on their hands – it was hard to know. Again he was around 7s and I wasn’t sure if that was generous enough given the questions. But he does have a different profile to the rest/is intriguing. But it’s hard to know how good he is, or whether he will stay, esp in this ground. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. Josh, wishing you and all the members a relaxing and wonderful Christmas and prosperous New Year. Great site and brilliant people.

  2. Merry Christmas Josh
    Do wish id of thrown a bit at Elegant Escape now after Kevin Blake was telling ppl to get on a few weeks back
    Was always an intended runner and the ground’s surely going to suit him
    Was 12/1 then or at least 10s and all the way down to 4’s now and depending on how the field shapes poss could go even shorter

    1. I did listen to that and got on at 10’s each way, 4 places. A bit short now. Not the greatest jumper but stays on in the ground.

  3. josh,i would like to add my best wishes to you and all members,both new and long standing,health and wealth for the festivities and the fast approaching new year. william

  4. Happy Christmas everybody. I’m hoping for another Happy ClandesObeaux on at 25/1 last year and on at 9’s this year. All the pundits seem to be dismissing him but they were last year too. He just seemed to float over the fences and although I suppose the opposition looks comparatively weak with the benefit of hindsight, the market did not think that a year ago.
    Hugh

    1. id absolutley love for everyone to give an opinion and an explanation on this race
      Even just for a gauge on how ppl are seeing things
      For me there is no way i watch the Cyrname race last out and think he inproves for the extra trip. No way whatsoever

      1. But Cobden has plumped for Cyrname. They surely work against each other at home. Absolute thinker but these puzzles take over me

        1. Watched the RSA so amny times from last year. And although Delta Work looks to be coming at the end i really think Santini is the one togo forward with for the extra trip. With an interupted build up, and travelling so well he’s the one iv picked for the Gold Cup. Especially being trained by Hendo with the way he seems to prime for Chelts

          1. But then the fly in the ointment to scuppper my plans, is the horse who i tried getting beat at Haydock, Lostntranslation. And now from thinking that he wont be good enough, im thinking that he’s quite possibly easlily good enough to win this King George. Dont like being proved wrong but he was quite a bit better than BDM last time which i think is quite a sign. Could travel like a dream and put Cyrname firmly in his place. CDO the same, although i dont think he’s top top Gr1 level. Think he’s a very good horse, and this race has obvs been the main target, but think LIT could of improved past his level. Fascinating

      2. Cyrname will need to pace himself over three miles to fully stay. The first two in the betting look short to me and the value would be last years winner at the prices. Although it is a better race this year. You do not have to have a bet though.

  5. Merry Christmas everyone, it’s a cracker of a King George, Cyrname would be my best ante post win since Best Mate’s 3rd Gold Cup, on at 16/1 but v worried about Lostintranslation who I’ve backed for Cheltenham …….

        1. Excellent. Nothing like a free bet with a bonus chance!! best of luck, looks like your on the best horse in the race too!

  6. hope your all having a great christmas day.
    just going through tomorrows cards and i’ve got it down to about 30 runners over 18 races only on i’ve backed so far is Commanche Red in Kempton 1-20 @ 9-1 ew 4 places. Back in the morning after a going update.

  7. COLINS BETS
    1.00 Wetherby Theflickeringlight 5/2
    2.50 Wolverhampton Locked N Loaded 4/1
    3.25 Wolverhampton Necoleta 15/8

    TIP TOP
    2.00 Wincanton Le Boizelo 9/2
    2.00 Sedgefield Mortens Leam 6/1
    3.00 Fontwell The Tin Miner 5/1
    3.35 Fontwell Kalarika 11/2

    ARUBA
    1.20 Kempton Simply The Betts 3/1
    1.25 Wincanton Jatiluwih 2/1
    2.00 Wincanton Le Boizelo 9/2
    Colin

  8. 3.40 KP, Captain Tommy. His trainer has said that he is well handicapped over hurdles and so is delaying his novice chasing career. A Change of tactics today. Instead of being held up he is going to make it and wear a visor/hood. May be worth a go at a big price?

  9. Merry Christmas everyone.

    Three I like today are Commanche Red (Kempton 13:20), Third Wind (Wincanton 13:25) and Aiguille Rouge (Fontwell 14:25) all each way.

    Also a small bet on NYE Bevan in the 13:00 at Wetherby but not a race I want to massively get involved as looks very competitive.

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