Members Daily Post: 21/12/19 (complete:09.24)

No tips, Section 2 (complete), test zone Trends Shortlists/trainer pointers

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 23/158, 47p +19.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None – strangely for a Saturday nothing from me at all – i’ve looked and looked at the two big handicaps but I dont feel confident enough on anything at the prices. In the 3pm I really like Kildisart as a horse – i’m not sure there’s a handicap chaser around with stronger form-lines and I think he could still have a handicap in him off 155 – but he’s around 5s and Heavy ground is a complete unknown really – indeed over fences there’s no horse in the race with a win in heavy and only 3 have ever run in a heavy ground chase, so a fair bit of educated guessing and the price just doesn’t allow the play, to my subjective eyes. Venetia’s will no doubt relish it but is 4s, and Mr Malarkey is a grinder, but again heavy an unknown. It really could take some getting if it passes the inspection, so I’ll leave it.

Over at Haydock the two ‘Heavy Ground Haydock Winners’ are The Hollow Ginge and Daklondike but again they don’t seem overpriced. I prefer the former as I think he will relish these conditions but i’d prefer if Sam was on, especially at that price, as he’s the only jockey to have ridden him over fences. Jamie B is ok but he’s no STD. Daklondike – well it could be signifiant that Tom Scu is at Ascot for one ride I think, on Umbrigado and he’s been backed all week from 25s>5s. Id be more interested in D, who won for us last year in the race, if some sort of headgear had returned, and he’s usually held up. 9/2 isn’t big enough for me for all that he will relish the ground/pace (he’s 3/3 on heavy). The rest have plenty of questions but I suppose it would be typical for Lord D M to take this decent pot, having fluffed his lines for us at 20s in a lesser race at Stratford a few runs back. Him and Orchardstown seem about right also to me given the rise in class but I could be wrong.

So, i’ll just sit it out and watch. If I was trackside with a spare £2-5 flying around id go with Kildisart and The Hollow Ginge I think, a 31/1 double which of course won’t come in. 🙂

 

Best of The Stats? (test: 0/1, 1p; -1) 

None – annoyingly, given no action above either but there’s nothing on this page I want to wade into at the prices. I’ve looked and looked again but i’d simply be forcing a bet – for many there’s plenty of guessing as to proper heavy. 

Best of luck with any bets. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs 

JUMPS

Ascot (Second inspection 11.30am) 

1.50 – My Way (micro class) ES+ 10/1 S3A

3.00 –

Black Corton (m runs) H1 I1 G3 16/1 S1 S2A S4 

Acting Lass (all Hc’s) w1 9/1 

3.35 –

Scaramanga (HcH) w1 I3 22/1 S2A

Umbrigado (HcH) G3 13/2 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Tamaroc Du Mathan (HcH) w2 8/1 

 

Haydock

11.50 – Fin And Game (m dist) H1 Evens 

1.35 –

Chambard (m going) H3 G1 9/4 

Ubaltique (m dist) w2 11/1 

2.05 – Closing Ceremony (all Hc’s) w2 6/1 

2.40 – Daklondike (HcCh,m runs) H3 9/2 

 

Newcastle

12.00 – Starplex (all Hc’s)w1 H1 I1 G3 6/4 S4

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TTP Chase Micros 

1.35 Hayd – Chambard (any, 9/2< best)  H3 G1 9/4 

1.50 Ascot – Kobrouk (any)  10/1 

2.50 Newc – Manetti (9/1<) I3

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

12.40 A – Pemberley (14/1<)  H1 I1 4/1 

December Pointers

Trainer

1.50 A – War Sound  16/1 

3.00 A – Jerrysback 6/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

1.50 A – Garde Le Victoire (14/1<) G3 14/1 

3.00 A- Jerrysback (14/1<)  6/1 

1.35 Hayd – Sir Egbert H3 I1 G3 5/1 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

3.00 A – Give Me A Copper (any) H3 15/2 

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Chase Eye-Catcher 2019/20 

1.15 Ascot – On The Blind Side H3 I3 G1 3/1 

2.40 Hayd – The Hollow Ginge I3 4/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Sat Big Race Stats/Trends/Trainer Pointers

…from the report HERE>>>

3.35 Ascot- G3 Handicap Hurdle

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • French Crusader / Countister 
  • Umbrigado 
  • Not So Sleepy 
  • Crooks Peak / Zanza 
  • Harambe 
  • Mohaayed

Trends Shortlist 

The 15/15 stats (of those run at Ascot) leave 15/92 runners, 31p , +100 BFSP….

French Crusader / No So Sleepy / Umbrigado / Whoshotthesheriff/ Countister/ Crooks Peak / Harambe / Mohaayed

The 14/15 and 13/15 stats leave 9/19 runners, 12p, +85 in last 15 renewals at Ascot… leaving…

French Crusader/ Not So sleepy / Whoshotthesheriff/ Harambe 

 

The trends for the two chases are not the strongest… the trainer records….

3.00 Ascot 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • Yaltari 
  • Give Me A Copper / Black Corton 
  • Regal Encore 

 

2.40 Haydock 

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • Daklondike 

 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. After Whatsupwithyou romped home @56.97 BSP for me on Friday and Ben Paulings horses clearly in form now I’ve just got to back Delire Destruval 14/1 e/w with 4 places in the 13:50 at Ascot, loves a bit of mud too. Hopefully I’ll get a good run and at least some place money.

  2. Tomorrows now, then write ups in morning.
    14:40 Haydock
    CROSSPARK 1pt win 8/1 gen
    VINTAGE CLOUDS 1pt win 6/1 gen

    15:00 Ascot
    KILDISART 1pt win 6/1 gen
    MISTER MALARKEY 1pt win 7/1 gen

    15:35 Ascot
    MONSIEUR LE COQ 1pt 12/1 gen
    COUNTISTER 1pt win 12/1 gen

  3. CROSSPARK
    Well I`ve woken up this morning and seen the price for both of mine in this lengthen, which I`m happy with. CP has a good speed rating and I had a look at horses that cna stay more than the 3m 11/2 f advertised here, CP falls into that category and he will need all of that 4m eider chase win stamina to do so. It will be a real slog out there and whomever cracks first will set the race up for the other. I`m hoping on the stamina front it will be my two and Daklondike that fight out the finish.
    VINTAGE CLOUDS
    I did pick him in this years National and watched him absolutely hate the Becher chase, personally I just don`t think he enjoys those fences, back on this track he has an exceptional record and likes the cut and thrust of a big Hcp chase, so, with that in mind and at his optimum trip and optimum conditions he should be a really big player.
    KILDISART
    I know mine today are short prices, but, having looked at the races, the bookies have squeezed every last drop of value out of these races and I have looked to get winners on the board and put some coin in the till for the new year, none more so than this one. The JLT novice chase form is working out well, this one will relish the longer distance and should handle the going so, I thought 6/1 was value.
    MISTER MALARKEY
    I have picked this one before also, but, with Robbie Power on board again and over a RH track he should be back on track here, should sloosh through the mud and as I said you need that extra stamina in those conditions.
    MONSIEUR LE COQ
    Looks as though he will turn into a smart performer and almost won at a Cheltenham, people are saying the race 7 days a go may have taken more out of him than you think, but, am willing to go against the grain and at the prices I feel he may bolt up. value at the price.
    COUNTISTER
    Another who was in the MLC race at Cheltenham, should appreciate the flatter track and at the odds is also value after travelling well and plugging on in that race. She`ll be staying on when all the others have cried foul.

    Hope all horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever selections you pick today and If I don`t get on here before Christmas, hope you all have a Great Christmas and a Prosperous Punting New year!

    1. Whoops, sorry Josh can this be moved under my selections please, thought I had done it then it appeared below..

  4. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    good day yesterday on the AW, 2 winners from 3 bets at 4/1 and 11/4.

    TIP TOP
    No bet
    one bet 1 winner at 11/4 on the AW

    ARUBA
    No bet
    2 bets on the AW, 2 losers

    Lambourn
    No bet
    almost got it right with Al Daiha which finished 2nd after a drift from 11/2 to SP 9/1.

    Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas.
    Colin.

  5. Racing finished for a few days……Merry Christmas Josh and all members on this amazing site, have a great time!!

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