Members Daily Post: 20/12/19 (complete)

tip x1 +write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 23/158, 47p +19.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None, no races of choice again. Hopefully the field sizes hold for Saturday’s chases. 

 

Best of The Stats? (test: 0/1, 1p; -1) 

12.05 Uttox – SEYMOUR SOX – 1 point win – 18/1 (bet365/WH/UniB) 16/1 (others)  2nd 8s, a brave run and exciting the whole way until the final flight, living in hope for most of it and two drew clear. Trust me to bump into an injury prone 10YO rolling back the years- he was only heavy ground winner in race as mentioned in write up so no shock, and 27LB below his last win over CD in 2015 – not run many times since. Frustrating but I can’t complain too much at that, 2nds become 1st eventually. He looks a fine stamp of a horse, could be a well handicapped chaser in time, age 6/7 maybe. Deep ground clearly no problem for him. 

that’s all today as of 08.06, write up at bottom of post…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ascot

3.05 – Saint De Reve (HcH,m class and distance) w1 ES+ H1 I3 7/2 S3A# UP

 

Uttoxeter

12.05 – Seymour Sox (all Hc’s) 18/1 S2A 2nd 14.4/1>8/1 

1.45 – Louse Talk (m runs) I1 G3 7/1  PU 7/2 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

December Pointers

Trainers

12.35 Uttox – St Barts H1 G1 I1 6/4  WON 6/4>13/8 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

1.45 Uttox – Cougars Gold 12/1 2nd 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Thursday’s Trends post, with a look ahead to Saturday: HERE>>>

(Don’t forget you should be able to find all Micro Monday/Tracker Tuesday/Trends Thursday posts in the tabs to the top left hand side when logged into members’ area on desktop/tablet)

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Write Up 

Seymour Sox 

One from Section 2 here (TTP Qualifiers – this stats report can be found in the Welcome post link, near bottom of that post) and admittedly it’s a bit of a poke. He could be useless at the moment/needs more time, but as always there’s method to my increasing madness and if he’s well backed the excitement will build. This is an atrocious race and I couldn’t resist him at his price, on handicap hurdle debut. What’s in his favour? 

Some stats… 

This is one of Alastair’s Ralph’s target tracks I think  – 9/33,15p, +14 SP all runners here in his training career to date – he was Dr Newland’s assistant for a time I believe and I can think of worse teachers for aspiring trainers.  I believe Liam Treadwell is helping out plenty there also, which is a positive for his young horses/schooling etc. I digress… he’s also 6/23,10p in handicaps here, 3/13,5p in handicap hurdles, 2/5 when it’s heavy.

Micro? With all 5 year old handicap hurdlers he’s 5/17,10p, +34 BFSP, and aged 5+6 = 8/28, 14p, +38 BFSP (1/4 hncp h debut- 2/5,3p at Uttox) 

He’s also 2/9, 3p, +22 with his handicap hurdle debutants in 2019 and the yard are starting to fire, having been quiet earlier in the year…  3/13,3p +16 in the last 14 days, 4/21, 5p in the last 30. The jockey is decent enough also and is in form, 5/25,7p in the last 30 days. 

The going…

It’s Heavy, a bit of an unknown – (That’s My Rabbit the only heavy ground winner in the race to date) – looking at his sire – well in recent year’s his handicap hurdlers in heavy are 5/24,10p. His half brothers (same Dam) are Seymour Eric and Seymour Star (trainer knows the latter well) – the former hit ratings in the 130s inc 3/7,4p in handicap hurdles on heavy. The latter handled soft and also hit ratings in the 130s. I think this horse does have handicap wins in him, just whether that’s soon or if he needs more time to mature. 

The horse…

Well there’s the relations above as some indication as to what he ‘could’ become in time and he’s clearly been running for an education to date while being allowed to mature etc. And he may need more time. He’s been running in some decent enough Novice hurdles, in the context he’s rated 97. Well if I look at that Chepstow run two starts back… the 2nd in that has a rating of 130. The 3rd has placed a couple of times since off 128. He was entitled to be miles behind them. He was 12l behind a Pipe horse who won a few days ago off 109. In that sense there’s bits and pieces of promise, and when looking at his siblings. LTO was a write off I think – of course he may have needed it, and he was sent off 100/1 – but he did hang left all the way through it and Treadwell was struggling to stop him lugging left, as he reported post race. So, going back LH may help him, and dropping into a race where on ratings he’s the best in here (but it could be over-inflated – we shall find out soon) 

Like I said it could be that at this stage of his career he just isn’t very good, and he needs more time to mature. But he was 18s/16s, and there’s some solid reasoning for why he may leave previous form behind. His canny trainer will get wins out of him at some stage and he’s found an awful race here. 

Pace/Running style… well on paper there are no out and out front runners in this but SS did jump of handy at Ludlow, before then falling back through the field. Hopefully he may race up there again, lobbing away, with the rail on his inside to help him. There’s plenty of stamina in his pedigree and with any luck he’s a lively outsider. GL

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. AW T/T
    No winner yesterday.

    3 runners Friday.

    2.45 S Samphire Coast…D Shaw…9/2
    7.45 D Bold Approach…J Bolger T/J Dist…6/1
    Sheisdiesel…N Meade Hcp…10/1

    Mike

  2. Sylviacliffs is the hopeful selection for a stocking filler from his runners tomorrow 1.35 Southwell.Depends if its her turn tomorrow.ts interesting that her last run was at lingfield in that Burke hasn’t had a 3yo winner there from 26 runners.May be signifigent or may not

  3. COLINS BETS
    4.20 Southwell Waitaki 5/2
    Wolverhampton
    5.00 Steal The Scene 4/1
    7.30 Savalas 4/1
    8.00 Mutabaay 11/4

    TIP TOP
    8.00 Wolverhampton Mutabaay 11/4

    ARUBA
    Southwell
    1.35 Gleeful 6/1
    1.35 Bedtime Bella 8/1
    Colin

  4. LAMBOURN
    8.30 Wolverhampton Al Daiha 11/2
    having put up Lambourn trainers in the begining some time ago, always kept my eye on them and Ed Walker is one of my top trainers, today he has put in the plate for the first time Luke Morris which is a great positive, and Ed is hoping that she can break her maiden before the end of the year, so is tonight the night will find out later.
    Colin.

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