Members Daily Post: 18/12/19 (complete:09.50)

write up – Tip x1, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 23/158, 47p +19.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.35 Ludlow – WICKED WILLY – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen)  UP 5/1, halved in price but ended up running like a 20s shot- he hasn’t run very well, but at least his mark will drop again – they’ll find a C3 chase for him at some point (maybe back to Taunton), however he was ridden even colder than anticipated – in the end it didn’t matter – Venetia’s settled much better than LTO, had learnt plenty jumping wise, and won with any amount in hand. 

that’s all for main tips today, as of 08.45, write up at bottom of post….

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Best of The Stats (test: 0/0) 

None, nothing in Section 2/Test Zone I wish to tip at prices. Fontsanta could be a chaser to watch but he isn’t value on just his second chase start – he was highlighted by Paul Ferguson in a guest post (found in Free Reports/Systems Tab above) as a novice chaser to follow through the season. This looks a deep race though and one to watch with the future in mind, to my eyes anyway. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ludlow

2.05 – Master Work (all Hc’s)  ES+ G1 11/2 S3A ( 2nd 7/2 

 

Newbury

3.00 – Shanahan’s Turn (HcCh,m distance,runs) H3 7/2  UP

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainer

1.20 Newb – Fontsanta (14/1<) I3 G3 11/4  Fell (when winning, horrible to watch, fatal I think) 

December Pointers

Trainer

3.40 Lud – Presuming Ed 10/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

LTO Winners Starting Point (10/1<) 

3.00 Newb – Defi Sacre H1 I1 G3 7/4 WON 7/4>6/5 

Trainers

1.20 Newb – Court Master  6/1  WON 6/1>8/1 

3.00 Newb – Shanahans Turn H3 7/2 UP

3.00 Newb – Rock On Rocky (10/1<) 15/2  UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.05 Lud – Movie Legend (9/1<) H3 I3 11/2 UP

2.35 Lud – Bally Longford 8/1 UP / Bobo Mac H1 I3 5/1 2nd (17/2<) 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

NEW: Tracker Tuesday Post HERE>>>

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Write Up 

2.35 Lud  – Wicked Willy 

Looking through this race he was the one horse that jumped out as being far too big a price in conditions…

Profile – he’s 2/9 in handicap chases, those two wins at this C3 level (2/4) and both under STD (2/4). However he also has a touch of class as per his hurdle exploits having won a C2 and places numerous times in decent handicap hurdles, as well as a decent effort in a C2 hncp chase at Sandown. He does stay very well to my eyes and keeps going, his best chase runs in softer ground. He’s got experience of the course. 

Well handicapped? – Well he’s back down to his last winning mark of 127, when winning at Taunton over fences, beating Rolling Dylan (ok form), the front two well clear (usually a good sign). He’s got some RPRs over fences in the 131-134 range which would also give some hope that the mark won’t be an excuse. Of course something else may be better handicapped but i’ll get onto those soon. 

Hot Form? – plenty of his races, esp hurdles, have produced subsequent winners (indicating he was in and around well handicapped horses, possibly progressive) and he’s been in there pitching in plenty of them. Those Cheltenham, Wincanton, Chepstow and Huntingdon efforts at back end 2018, early 2019 were decent. Over hurdles he’s been competing against good horses. Chasing wise… well that Rolling Dylan form is ok – he’s  a bit of a monkey but has won since and gone very close a couple of times off 140. The Sandown C2 effort was ok competing against horses in the 140s – he was ridden too cold there and clattered 2 out, he’d have been closer but for that. In short, he’s more than good enough to beat this lot, if running his race. 

What’s he doing different to LTO? – well he’s dropped 3lb, he drops two classes from a Listed hncp into a C3, ‘his’ level over fences. STD jumps back on for the first time this season and he’s quite a chase upgrade from young Jordan Nailor. He gets soft for the first time in a while – his chase form suggests he’s more than happy on this surface and the fact it probably slows everything down/brings stamina into play, is beneficial to him. He just seems versatile. 

Other – ‘Big Nige’ is in form – 7/33,15p in the last 14 days and interestingly enough he’s also 1/11,6p in this race – the other ‘winning trainer’ represented is Venetia Williams.. STD is 3/11,4p in C3 24f handicap chases here also, (4/42,14p in all handicap chases in the period) – the horse was never really put in the race LTO and just seemed to potter around – I do wonder if this has been some sort of early season plan and the change of jockey/the soft going, should bring him closer to Sumkindofking. It wasn’t a bad run. 

Pace/Running Style – well he won’t be ridden forward, which is one of the reasons for wanting a bigger price. For that Taunton win Sam had him handy enough in midfield – there should be some pace to sit off here but I hope he doesn’t ride him cold, putting him under pressure to close up the straight, but Sam couldn’t be riding much better at the moment and he was 10s+, not 4s. I’ll trust him to get it right. 

So, that’s him – he’s lightly enough raced over fences but with the promise of more to come – well certainly handicapped to win again, but aged 8 and with 9 chase runs to his name, he’s not done with yet. 

The opposition…

Obviously I didn’t like much else at the prices. 

Roll Again is a clear and obvious danger but even at 4s or so I couldn’t touch him – he was very keen LTO and will need to settle better. His jumping was also very guessy and he needs to sharpen up. He also needs to prove his stamina. He had too many questions at his price for me although clearly he could be well handicapped-  possibly. He’s lightly raced and the yard are on fire. This may have been a plan. So, I won’t be shocked if he goes close, as the market suggests. 

Bobo Mac – didn’t look overpriced given the 10lb rise and this is again now a career high – 126 the highest mark he’s won off, 12 handicap runs. He’s unexposed over fences so it may not stop him but this is deeper than his win here LTO which isn’t working out great as yet. He needs more but again, no shock were he to double up – but not enough there at 9/2 for me in a race like this, and with a jockey riding him for first time. Alas LTO was the time to catch the bugger. Sadly I picked one to chase him home! 

Cresswell I could leave but I tipped him LTO so we know what happens now. That was a bad call and i’ll leave him here in conditions – he seems a bit in and out and i’m not sure he’s up to this level of competition. His one chase win so far a 3 runner affair and he dropped out tamely LTO- maybe he did too much upfront but he may do so again under Chester. 6s didn’t seem overpriced. 

Sumkindofking is ‘exposed’ to a point although his mark looks ok – he has to prove he wants it soft for me and the yard are 1/37,8p last 30 days, 0/17,2p the last 14. At 6s, with 7lb claimer Noel on, that was enough to put me off at the price. 

In short nothing at the top end scared me at the prices and I was happy to take them all on. 

None of the bigger priced ones could tempt me in. Another Stowaway, again for George, has questions in the going and didn’t run too well LTO. His jumping was off there also, never in a rhythm – so some questions for him but there are 7 or so in this i’d put in the ‘unexposed/could be more to come’ over fences category and he’s one of those. He has more chases in him. 

I can leave the two veterans and if one beats me so be it. 

That leaves Equus Secretus – he’s lightly raced/unexposed and there should be more to come – but just far too many questions for him at the moment, in a race like this , inc fitness and what ability remains – he does have an interesting profile though and is one to watch moving forwards – hopefully he needs this but runs ok. The yard have had major problems, shut down for a few weeks in Oct/Nov I think after a batch of dodgy hay. They will start firing soon and have had a recent winner at Musselburgh, but still the odd question. He is drifting which may mean he needs it and in any case he’s hard to weigh up. 

So, that’s that – I thought WW looked overpriced at 10s/11s in this line up and hopefully he can run a big race and give me something to cheer. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. AW T/T
    3 Runners for Wed. 3 winners this month so far.

    5.45 N Ritchie Star…B Haslam Hcp…11/1
    6.15 N Fortamour…B Haslam Hcp…12/1
    7.15 N Epeius…B Haslam Hcp…13/2
    Evening prices.

    Mike

    1. I see my secret weapon has been found…haha. The Ben Haslam runners have been paying well for some time now, will it continue? Hope so, good luck.

  2. Splendidly turns out again at Newcastle 4.45 but its probably priced about right which makes it a let it run proposition.Best to wait for the ones with unknown potential that are priced accordingly.The jumps fare is dire at the moment,perhaps the new year may bring better quality.

  3. Hi Josh
    One of my syndicate horses He’s No Trouble is out again today 13-20 Newbury got his act together last time after unseating at the 2nd fence the race before, seems tougher opposition today if you get chance can you have a look over the race would be grateful for your thoughts
    Regards
    Peter

    1. Hi Peter,
      Well if he’s ‘in profit’ for you, betting wise, (if you’ve backed him for his two wins etc) I won’t be putting you off another bet track side- certainly EW now he’s 7s – owner’s prerogative but I wouldn’t be going mad as it does look a deep/interesting race, informative for the future- you will learn plenty about yours today inc going LH at a GradeA track, and of course the distance – which Kim must think he needs – but will test him. Some of his form has been working out ok – and that 133 RPR LTO (career best) would indicate this mark of 128 is fine, just whether something with more in hand today. I’m always a tad sceptical about Huntingdon form now I think- you can get some weak enough races there for the grades it seems, esp handicaps, but I could be wrong.
      He’s certainly got more wins in him for you, and if takes this you can start to get very excited I suspect!

      Dangers galore, obviously every horse in this is open to progress over fences – Kings is solid, Lavelles is interesting, and is Harry Ws if he stays on his feet – Tizzards and Paulings are being nibbled at.
      Looks a cracker of a race for the future – one that will tell you plenty about yours and help connections plot a route forward I suspect. Exciting. I couldn’t even really give you a bet for something else really – a puzzle! …

      Well, at a push… Jammy George at 6s may give you something else to cheer if yours doesn’t bolt up.

      1. Hi Josh
        Thanks for your comments yes will not go mad as thought was tough race but will show us the direction we are going I hope especially LH as you say
        he did win his PTP over 3 miles in soft so hopefully the distance wont be a problem
        Peter

  4. nothing caught my eye at Newbury or Ludlow apart from Josh’s selection and had already had a fair punt on it @12.6-1 after r4 (sorry if i’ve put the kibosh on Josh) so with an hour to spare i’ve put my very limited aw acumen to use and came up with these who i thought were better than their odds.

    Duke Of North LINGFIELD 12:10 @18/1
    Mercers LINGFIELD 13:10 @14/1
    My Target LINGFIELD 14:50 @11/1
    Ascot Week NEWCASTLE 15:45 @13/2
    With Approval NEWCASTLE 17:45 @16/1

    1. ah, I suspect you may have done haha – i’m not sure when i’ve tipped something and you’ve agreed, or vice versa, they’ve ever won!! Albeit probably a small sample and obviously no logic for why that would be the case at all. In theory it should be a positive. 🙂 I’ll prepare for an early UR or a fine running on 2nd now!

  5. wow, Court master wins, that m. scudamore micro you looked at must be absolutely flying! Great work on Sue Smith , looks fascinating , can’t wait for Jan for that. Keep up the good work! Cheers

    1. hmm, yes suspect so. He was lucky in what was a horrid ending up the straight as Lavelles was hacking up, but sadly didn’t make it home.
      I thought that looked rather competitive for his morning price of 6s, albeit 2 hours later he went out to 14s I think, then back in. The second is clearly thrown in and would have won (post Lavelle’s falling) had he jumped a bit better, lost 10L+ on the way round I suspect.
      But looks like MS team/connections have another nice staying chaser in the making.
      I’ll do a re-cap on some of those test zone angles in Jan to BFSP.

      Cheers- yep I was surprised just how strong those Jan/Feb stats were, so fingers crossed same again – she hasn’t exactly been banging them in so far, which makes me think it could be a good year again!

      1. Just looked at the M Scudamore test zone angle… 7/27, 8p, +28 BFSP 2019, before today… 2/12,2p, +9 Oct/Nov/Dec (before today’s winner)

      2. Ah i didn’t know one of the other runners didn’t make it, how sad, thoughts with all those connected with that horse, sounds like court master was a bit fortunate to win. Will remember this bet when cursing my luck in the future then.

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