Micro Monday: 09/12/19

 

After the gallant victory of Bigirononhiship at Kelso I thought it may be worth exploring Rose Dobbin’s chase stats >>>

Rose Dobbin

As a general point it should be noted that the yard had a torrid time of it last season, with a major virus almost shutting the operation down for a time. They are well and truly through that now.

This does mean that a) some of last season’s form can be ignored – as the horses were not right b) those that did run and underperformed may be well handicapped as a result.

 

Handicap Chase/Novice Handicap Chase (2014>)

Of some interest… all such runners this year are: 5/23, 9p, +20 BFSP

Odds

The market is seemingly some guide with their handicap chasers >>>

  • 4/1< SP: 96 bets / 28 wins / 49p / 29% sr / +9 SP / +15 BFSP / AE 1.08
  • Sent off 14/1 or bigger SP: 0/50, 9p

 

Stamina

Of some note for the future, possibly having missed the boat, it would appear Rose knows how to train a thorough stayer…

  • 26f+ : 33 bets / 8 wins / 14p / 24% sr / +19 SP / +25 BFSP / AE 1.59

 

Distance Move

…she also knows when to step them up in trip…

 

Micro 1

  • Rose Dobbin
  • Handicap Chase/Novice Handicap Chase
  • Aged 8+
  • Distance Move: Up 1f or more
  • 12/1< SP (guide, only 0/6,1p above)

 

Results: 43 bets / 14 wins / 19p / 33% sr / +55 SP / +64 BFSP / AE 2.08

*

Pointers >>>

 

Course + Distance (all handicap chases/novice handicap chases)

  • Perth/16-16.5f: 5/10,7p, +14 BFSP
  • Kelso/17-17.5f: 4/12, 6p, +5
  • Muss/23-23.5f: 3/7,5p, +8
  • Donc/26-26.5f: 3/4, 3p , +14
  • Kelso/23-23.5f: 3/12, 3p, +3

 

Tracks

  • Handicap Chase (standard only)
  • Track: Ayr/Doncaster/ Kelso / Musselburgh / Perth/Wetherby
  • 7/1< SP (guide, bigger… 3/45, 14p, -10 SP)

 

Results: 78 bets / 24 wins/ 37p / 31% sr / +33 SP / +42 BFSP / AE 1.4

 

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To finish, another ‘micro angle’ of sorts. I will add Micro 1+2 to those chase angles posted in the Test Zone. As indicated below, Rose’s in form, unexposed handicap chasers are worth keeping onside >>>

 

Micro 2

  • Rose Dobbin
  • Handicap Chase (standard only)
  • Horse 0-3 wins in handicap chases
  • 1st or 2nd LTO
  • Any odds

Results: 64 bets / 18 wins/ 27p / 28% sr / +41 SP / +54 BFSP / AE 1.43

 

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That’s all for this week,

Josh

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