Micro Monday: 09/12/19

Rose Dobbin’s chasers >>>

After the gallant victory of Bigirononhiship at Kelso I thought it may be worth exploring Rose Dobbin’s chase stats >>>

Rose Dobbin

As a general point it should be noted that the yard had a torrid time of it last season, with a major virus almost shutting the operation down for a time. They are well and truly through that now.

This does mean that a) some of last season’s form can be ignored – as the horses were not right b) those that did run and underperformed may be well handicapped as a result.

Handicap Chase/Novice Handicap Chase (2014>)

Of some interest… all such runners this year are: 5/23, 9p, +20 BFSP

Odds

The market is seemingly some guide with their handicap chasers >>>

4/1< SP: 96 bets / 28 wins / 49p / 29% sr / +9 SP / +15 BFSP / AE 1.08
Sent off 14/1 or bigger SP: 0/50, 9p

Stamina

Of some note for the future, possibly having missed the boat, it would appear Rose knows how to train a thorough stayer…

26f+ : 33 bets / 8 wins / 14p / 24% sr / +19 SP / +25 BFSP / AE 1.59

Distance Move

…she also knows when to step them up in trip…

Micro 1

Rose Dobbin
Handicap Chase/Novice Handicap Chase
Aged 8+
Distance Move: Up 1f or more
12/1< SP (guide, only 0/6,1p above)

Results: 43 bets / 14 wins / 19p / 33% sr / +55 SP / +64 BFSP / AE 2.08

Pointers >>>

Course + Distance (all handicap chases/novice handicap chases)

Perth/16-16.5f: 5/10,7p, +14 BFSP
Kelso/17-17.5f: 4/12, 6p, +5
Muss/23-23.5f: 3/7,5p, +8
Donc/26-26.5f: 3/4, 3p , +14
Kelso/23-23.5f: 3/12, 3p, +3

Tracks

Handicap Chase (standard only)
Track: Ayr/Doncaster/ Kelso / Musselburgh / Perth/Wetherby
7/1< SP (guide, bigger… 3/45, 14p, -10 SP)

Results: 78 bets / 24 wins/ 37p / 31% sr / +33 SP / +42 BFSP / AE 1.4

To finish, another ‘micro angle’ of sorts. I will add Micro 1+2 to those chase angles posted in the Test Zone. As indicated below, Rose’s in form, unexposed handicap chasers are worth keeping onside >>>

Micro 2

Rose Dobbin
Handicap Chase (standard only)
Horse 0-3 wins in handicap chases
1^st or 2^nd LTO
Any odds

Results: 64 bets / 18 wins/ 27p / 28% sr / +41 SP / +54 BFSP / AE 1.43

That’s all for this week,

Josh