After the gallant victory of Bigirononhiship at Kelso I thought it may be worth exploring Rose Dobbin’s chase stats >>>
Rose Dobbin
As a general point it should be noted that the yard had a torrid time of it last season, with a major virus almost shutting the operation down for a time. They are well and truly through that now.
This does mean that a) some of last season’s form can be ignored – as the horses were not right b) those that did run and underperformed may be well handicapped as a result.
Handicap Chase/Novice Handicap Chase (2014>)
Of some interest… all such runners this year are: 5/23, 9p, +20 BFSP
Odds
The market is seemingly some guide with their handicap chasers >>>
- 4/1< SP: 96 bets / 28 wins / 49p / 29% sr / +9 SP / +15 BFSP / AE 1.08
- Sent off 14/1 or bigger SP: 0/50, 9p
Stamina
Of some note for the future, possibly having missed the boat, it would appear Rose knows how to train a thorough stayer…
- 26f+ : 33 bets / 8 wins / 14p / 24% sr / +19 SP / +25 BFSP / AE 1.59
Distance Move
…she also knows when to step them up in trip…
Micro 1
- Rose Dobbin
- Handicap Chase/Novice Handicap Chase
- Aged 8+
- Distance Move: Up 1f or more
- 12/1< SP (guide, only 0/6,1p above)
Results: 43 bets / 14 wins / 19p / 33% sr / +55 SP / +64 BFSP / AE 2.08
*
Pointers >>>
Course + Distance (all handicap chases/novice handicap chases)
- Perth/16-16.5f: 5/10,7p, +14 BFSP
- Kelso/17-17.5f: 4/12, 6p, +5
- Muss/23-23.5f: 3/7,5p, +8
- Donc/26-26.5f: 3/4, 3p , +14
- Kelso/23-23.5f: 3/12, 3p, +3
Tracks
- Handicap Chase (standard only)
- Track: Ayr/Doncaster/ Kelso / Musselburgh / Perth/Wetherby
- 7/1< SP (guide, bigger… 3/45, 14p, -10 SP)
Results: 78 bets / 24 wins/ 37p / 31% sr / +33 SP / +42 BFSP / AE 1.4
*
To finish, another ‘micro angle’ of sorts. I will add Micro 1+2 to those chase angles posted in the Test Zone. As indicated below, Rose’s in form, unexposed handicap chasers are worth keeping onside >>>
Micro 2
- Rose Dobbin
- Handicap Chase (standard only)
- Horse 0-3 wins in handicap chases
- 1st or 2nd LTO
- Any odds
Results: 64 bets / 18 wins/ 27p / 28% sr / +41 SP / +54 BFSP / AE 1.43
**
That’s all for this week,
Josh