Members Daily Post: 08/12/19 (complete)

All Tipsx3, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) (Test: 7/57,22p,+9.3) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 23/155, 46p +22.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.15 Kelso 

#1 – Westreet – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) PU, not sure it made a difference but his race seemed over when interfered with by faller, never going after that having travelled fine, but i’m probably clutching at straws there.

#2 – Dawson City – 1 point win 16/1 (WH) 14/1 (gen) PU – just not very good.

 

2.15 Kelso 

#3 – Gold Opera – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP, ran well for a long way, the two omitted fences due to low sun was really against him, as bought extreme stamina into play (go quicker/gallop for longer when no jumping etc) and he’s faded late. Another poor afternoon from me there. 

as of 09.36, that’s all for today 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Huntingdon

12.30 –

Veiled Secret (all Hc’s) I3 12/1 

Pagero (HcH,micro runs) ES+ 11/2 S3A WON 11/2>3/1

1.30 – Diamond Gait (HcH) I3 13/2 

 

Kelso

1.15 – Caventara (m runs) w1 5/1 

1.45 –

Highway Companion (all Hc’s) I3 9/2 

Rubytwo (all Hc’s) ES+ H1 I3 G3 5/2 S3A# S4 2nd 

Blooriedotcom (m TJC) 22/1 S2A

2.15 –

Cultram Abbey (all Hc’s) w2 ES+ H3 3/1 S3A UP

Chidswell (all Hc’s) ES+ G1 11/2 S3A 2nd 

Bernadelli (all Hc’s) ES+ H3 I3 6/1 S3A# UP

Gold Opera (all Hc’s) G3 10/1 S1 UP

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TTP Chase Micros

2.15 Kelso –

Cultram Abbey (all Hc’s)  H3 3/1  UP

Chidswell (all Hc’s)  G1 11/2 2nd 

Bernadelli (all Hc’s) H3 I3 6/1  UP

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

LTO winners starting point (10/1<)

1.15 Kel- Just Your Type 6/1

Trainers

2.15 Kel – Gold Opera 10/1 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

3.30 Hunt – Itsamanslife (25/1<) 12/1

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Saturday was a tough day for us in the racing bubble, with the loss of It’s Jennifer at Aintree (unpleasant viewing from the stands) and of course brave old Houblon Des Obeaux, who sadly had an internal bleed/heart attack at Sandown – it’s always a bit more emotional when it happens to the old warriors who feel like they’ve been around forever. I always like to think about how these horses lived, rather than how they died, and he had 12 glorious years. A sad postscript to an otherwise fantastic day of racing drama.

Betting/tipping wise… well Acting Lass (and a superb Brennan ride-  he’s still got it! 🙂 ) paid for the losers. I’ve declared him at 4s as I don’t think 5s lasted long enough but hopefully you beat SP. My Aintree pokes may all still be running but I do like to have some biggies onside in the Becher – and as a ‘race’ the tips in that are around +45 up in the last six renewals. But, alas, an 8s shot I got wrong in taking on this time. I was closer to the Sefton winner than i’d care to admit, and some pondering there as always. It felt an open race/open to a biggie winning, alas I landed on the wrong one.The London National was void- although mine ran his race, and didn’t stay, so I got away with one there. Still, no damage done on the day although i’m still not reading these big Saturday chases as well as i’d like, with the odd exception.

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Write ups…

1.5 Kelso

Westreet – 10s appears generous to my eyes – he’s that mix of being proven in conditions – i’d say he’s the strongest stayer in this race- but also with some relative youth on his side, and he’s still unexposed over extreme trips. I find it incredible that when on a going day he seems to have so much left over 29-32f in soft/heavy – those three runs at Lingfield, Hexham and Perth proved that – in each he’s seemingly had plenty left at the end, running strongly through the line – so, he won’t be done for stamina here and H Beswick has won on him – his 5lb takes him back to the same mark as that Perth win and ensures he has a fairly light weight on his back. At his best he does travel well off the pace and he’s such a good jumper, and tough with it. He responds to pressure and tries. I can only assume he needed it LTO on his return and 26f would be sharp enough for him. The yard are in cracking form and he just looked overpriced. If he’s anywhere near the front here on the turn for home, he won’t be stopping.

Dawson City – annoyingly he went from 20s/18s to 14s in around 10 minutes this morning as I was making a decision, but 14s still seems generous and the mild market support is a positive. I suspect this has been the plan and he’d have needed his Cheltenham run. He just has a touch of class in the context of this race- and a touch of staying class – he’s another that won’t be done for stamina and he is at the ‘been there done it/exposed end’ – his mark of 134 is only 3lb higher than his demolition job at Exeter and that won’t be the reason for defeat. That was also when carrying 11-10. C3 seems to be his level but his run in The Welsh National was decent enough, as was the Midlands National where he gave way in the last two furlongs. This is no Midlands or Welsh National. He finished a staying on 5th in this race last year, beaten 10l – the hope for him to get closer this time is the ground – it’s soft/heavy in places, which should slow it all down and will suit him much better. Like Westreet above, if he’s anywhere near the front here turning for home, and not too far back, he should be rattling up the hill – if on song. There’s also a strong cross wind I think – this really could take some getting, and i’ve sided with two proven stayers.

Of the rest…well something could well improve for conditions but I didn’t like the prices of those near the top.

6s for Just Your Type seems short given his inexperience and he’s shaped like a non-stayer a few times to my eyes. He has stamina to prove and the Longsdon yard are not really firing. I thought that was short and he can beat me at that price. He is lightly raced though, and as always never a shock. The same can be said for Caventara – Sandy Thompson is aiming to win this race for the 5th time in a row – this one won well on his return and this trip could bring out more – or he may not stay- 11/2 didn’t seem overpriced to find out and this is much deeper than that race.

Bafana Blue may well have done with his winning for now – another where stamina is an unknown but at least he’s in form. This is the toughest race he’s run in though, during that winning sequence.

Big River was 6s when I was deciding and he’s now on the drift – 6s seemed short given the questions he has – his jumping has always caused him problems as is his ability to hold a position. However, his Ultima and Scottish National runs clearly hint at his ability to take a race like this – and he shapes like a stayer. But, in the context of his price he does just have a few too many questions now- he was awful LTO, and from early on. The headgear may help but he’s also got a big weight to lug around here. He is the most interesting for me of those at at single figure odds – maybe they will change tactics- I would if he were mine – he doesn’t look like he needs settling/switching off – and lord only knows why they keep riding him so cold. If he’s obviously jumping/swinging away through this, then he won’t be far away. I think he will stay.

No Hassle Hoff just has too many questions also, inc fitness and stamina. I can leave him but he wouldn’t be the first chaser to improve for leaving the Skelton yard – and I didn’t think i’d be saying that this time last year. He’s interesting, just not interesting enough for me.

Bigirononhiship is interesting but he has to prove he can back up a run after a return win – all his best form is when running fresh and he needs more/has questions to answer.

Total Assets stays and may well place – if a few others run their race I didn’t think she’d have the class – but she should keep going. But if my two run their race, she won’t live with them in my view.

Achill RB has a few questions and can hit a fence or two. I’m not sure he will be good enough, and again stamina in this ground to prove.

The same for Terry The Fish – who’s mainly been kept to ground with ‘good’ in the description. In fact he’s not officially raced on soft or heavy since May 2017. He gets a visor. So he has to prove it in the ground, another where stamina is unknown – but of course where stamina is an unknown there’s always the chance they may improve for it.

Brian Boranha –  I think his level is a bit below this and again where I’d have questions over the ground. Anteros I can’t have as a slogger, and needs more.

As does Rightback Atya – esp from this UK handicap mark. I think he’s a 90s horse and i’d be surprised if he could handle some of these, ability wise. He shapes like a stayer though and the booking of Tom Scu looks interesting. Maybe he can run into a place, but surely won’t be classy enough to beat some of these if they perform.

So, that’s that.

Pace wise… Westreet, over this sort of trip, and they know he stays now, can be ridden just off the pace. Hopefully they don’t hold him up. Dawson City can race up there also, if holding a position.

Just Your Type may try and lead, along with Caventara. I don’t think they’ll be an excuse for mine, pace/tactics wise.

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2.15 – Gold Opera –

This is a vets chase but I couldn’t let this one go off at 10s – it’s his first go in a Vets chase I think which is never a bad ‘way in’ to these races – essentially I just couldn’t ignore that run at Aintree four starts ago – he was beaten 10l there in a Grade 3 handicap, Kildisart winning off 148, Old Grangewood was just in front of him. He cruised through that race and hit the front after the 3rd last. He jumped the second last and the saddle went – the jockey had to just get him home then/and stay on. He’d have been closer but for that. Obviously if he runs to that level – on ground he much prefers – he will be winning this race. As simple as that to my eyes. He’s also some other decent runs for Dalgleish earlier in the year. This just feels much easier than many of his chase runs for the yard. It will be his more recent form that is making him 10s. He was a tad lacklustre at Ayr – he was fancied which makes you think it can’t just be fitness, but who knows. He UR early LTO after being hampered. So, at least he comes fresh and he should strip fitter for Ayr. Hopefully he may swing away near the front end – it may be obvious if he’s on a going day but at 10s I thought he was worth a go. Maybe the market will guide.

The rest are much of a muchness really – old warriors generally who I can cheer home but can’t support at their prices-  the three Richards horses tick those boxes.

Wild West Wind is interesting but not overpriced for me – he did fold quickly enough 18 days ago when supported – maybe he badly needed it- I can see the case but didn’t like 3s.

Claud And Goldie is also ‘unexposed’ relative to his age/this race – again in testing ground and his general level for form, I didn’t think 9/2 was generous – but he probably is the most interesting of the ‘shorter’ priced ones.

Pace wise… Bernardelli may try and take them along – Gold Opera did track the pace/tanked through the Aintree race and maybe a switch to more prominent tactics may wake him up.

That’s all for today. Bol.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. It was sad to see HDO go like that and weirdly I thought of Mite Bite at the same time who looked to be having a great time after losing his rider, which like you say Josh is how to remember them and indeed any loss.

    1. yes i can see your reasoning the only 2 in the race to have won over 4 miles, i’ve backed Total Assets ew @14-1 bog with BV as you get 4 places, weighted to turn the tables on Bafana Blue, likes Kelso (3 wins) and goes on soft.

  2. Apart from the one above these are today’s bets.
    Kelso.
    2-15. Bernardelli 13-2 1/2 pt win thought the price more than fair, small saver on Cultram Abbey. if Wild West Wind comes out and smashes it fair play but to many ponderables for me.
    Huntingdon.
    12-30. Sammylou 11-1 small ew, won a novice hurdle over c&d back in January in these conditions and ran a fair 8/16 in a C3 lto.
    1-30. Hallings Comet 25-1 small ew, apart from a terrible run at Worcester on penultimate staart the form doesn’t look to bad , has won 6/22 over hurdles so looked worth a nibble at a big price.

    1. back in time for a quick look at the Irish cards.
      Punchestown.
      1-20. Artic Pearl 5-1 1pt ew 4 places
      1-50. Min should win but couldn’t resist a small ew on Anibale Fly 33-1

  3. Actin Lass will be some horse when he gets his jumping sorted out,Paddy was looking back for dangers some way from home,obviously lots in the tank,two bad mistakes and still pulled it out of the fire.If there’s one jockey you want at the last its Paddy,powers them into it.Horse for the future,trainer has no big plans yet.

    1. yep maybe – he did hint at that at Ascot, as he did in the past – strong traveller – CP/LH helped – they were not bad errors, seemed to either over jump, or take off too far out a few times – what won it for me was Paddy’s patience after that error – he didn’t get properly stuck in, gathered him up and waited.

      You can see him doing better just sat behind a strong pace.
      But, we probably shouldn’t get too excited – he was ‘only’ beating Another Venture- who’s solid, but does also usually need his first run back – obv without that error it’s probably 5l+ / going away. There should be more to come.
      Nice to get the ‘shorty’ eyes working, in the context of that race.
      yep I do like how Paddy boots them over the last, trademark style, giving them a tap just before lift off – quite the sight. Gets it wrong every now and then but more often than not it’s a race winner.

  4. Another big priced 1/2 length 2nd (16.3 bfsp) from yesterday’s 3 bets, disappointing maybe but encouraging none the less. Only non HCP bets today since losing Indian Temple earlier this morning.

    Today’s races of interest….. 12.50, 1.35, 3.00, 3.05 & 3.20 so back at 12.30.

  5. No bet in the 3.00. She’s A Rocca is a grey area bet but the sire’s record with deb’s going right handed is nothing to get excited about. As for the 3.05 it was a mistake on my part cos it doesn’t appear on my shortlist of races.

    Tough day!!

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