Members Daily Post: 07/12/19 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) (Test: 7/57,22p,+9.3) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 22/147, 45p +25.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.30 Aintree

#1 Vieux Lion Rouge – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) (12.5 BFX)  UP

#2 Wandrin Star – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen)  (20.00 BFX) UP

#3 Mysteree – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) (32.00 BFX) UP

 

3.35 Sandown 

#4 – Dragon DEstruval -1 point win – 17/2 (WH/BV) 8/1 (gen)

 

1.55 Chepstow 

#5 – Acting Lass – 1 point win – 5/1 (bet365/Lad/BetfS/PP/Coral) WON 4/1 (dec)> 3/1 

3.15 Aintree

#6 – Federici – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP

that’s all for today, as of 09.15…as busy as it gets outside of Festival week…. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Aintree

3.15 – Gold Present (micro runs) 14,30  15/2 

 

Chepstow

12.20 – Francky Du Berlais (m class) L H3 I3 8/1 

1.55 – Looks Like Power (all Hc’s) H3 I1 G3 9/2 S4 (S1 If 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Sandown

1.20 – Crystal Lad (m runs) 25/1 S2A

2.25 –

Malaya (m runs) 14 I3  9/2 

Ashutor (m runs) 14 7/1 

 

Wetherby

1.10 – Dubh Des Champs (all Hc’s,HcH) 20/1 S2A

2.15 –

Lucky Icon (all Hc’s,HcH) G3 12/1 S1

Suggestion (all Hc’s,HcH) w2 H3 9/1 

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TTP Chase Micros 
12.30 Aint – Amoola Gold  I3 7/2 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

December Pointers

Trainer (any odds) 

12.15 Sand – Espion 

2.05 Aint – Gavrocheka 

3.15 Aint – Kayf Adventure 

3.00 Sand – Defi Du Seuil 

 

Owner (any odds) 

1.oo Aint – Notre Pari 

1.20 Sand – Dream Berry 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

12.00 Aint – Holly Flight (11/1<) 

12.30 Aint – Monsieur Co (11/1<) 

3.15 Aint – Kayf Adventure (14/1<) 

3.00 Sand – Defi Du Seuil (14/1<) 

3.35 Sand – Dragon DEstruval (10/1<) 

1.30 Aint – Kimberlite Candy (13/2< ) 

12.20 Chep – Dorking Cock (13/2<) 

3.35 Sand – Coningsby (13/2<) L

 

LTO Winning Starting Points 

12.20 Chep – Exlair De Guye (12/1<) 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

1.30 Aint – Minellacelebration (25/1<) 

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Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

1.30 Aint – Wandrin Star 

3.15 Aint – Kayf Adventure 

1.55 Chep – Acting Lass / Captain Cattistock 

2.30 Chep – Financial Outcome 

2.30 Chep – Shannon Bridge 

1.10 Weth – Electron Bleu 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

Trends Trainer Pointers

(trainers to have won race/runners) 

Aintree

1.30 – Becher Chase

  • Vintage Clouds  (2016 winner, 2nd last year) 
  • Vieux Lion Rouge (2016 winner, 2nd last year) 
  • Walk In The Mill (last year’s winner) 
  • Ballyoptic 
  • As De Mee 

3.15 – Sefton Handicap 

  • Flying Angel 
  • Touch Kick 
  • Didero Vallis 

 

Sandown 

1.20 -Pertemps Final 

  • Dream Berry 

2.25 – Hncp Hurdle 

  • Malaya / Ashutor 
  • Smarty Wild 
  • Man Of Plenty / Sleep Easy 
  • Aiguille Rouge
  • Distingo 

3.35 – London National 

  • 3.35 – Caroles Destrier / Doing Fine 

 

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Trends Shortlist 

3.15 Grand Sefton 

The 14/15, 13/15, leave 11/74 runners, 23p… 

  • Flying Angel 
  • Touch Kick 
  • Gold Present 
  • Ultragold 
  • Kilaro Boy 
  • Hogans Height 
  • Beau Bay 

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Write ups…

Becher Chase…

I’m posting these in free post also… there’s a preview video above..

I will just mention Definitly Red… I was tossing up between him and Vieux Lion R and came down with the latter given his race/course record, and the weight carried. I wasn’t sure the former may be well enough handicapped and most of his best form is in smaller fields where can dictate – but I have a hunch he may go well for a long way, hopefully outstayed by something on the run in! But I probably won’t be able to resist some track side change on him. It won’t be much fun if i’ve picked the wrong one of the two.

This is one of my favourite races of the year, hence the 3 darts, and I have a much better record in it than the National so thought i’d have a good go. Fingers crossed for another Oscar Time or Highland Lodge.

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Of the rest… I need to get my skates on to Aintree soon so i’ll try and be brief…

I should add I did most of the work yesterday afternoon – I haven’t just woken up and decided to spend 10 mins on a race and fire darts 🙂 (although sometimes that approach can work!)

I’m a tad annoyed with myself after yesterday…why oh why i’ve picked two in a staying chase and not had at least one ”unexposed/could be anything in conditions’ type onside I don’t know. I really need to stop doing that. Poor.

1.55 Chep- Acting Lass… I tipped him LTO at 16s… he ran a strange race but some of promise… afterwards I mused that he should go LH NTO and a smaller field will help…well. He also gets 1st CP and Paddy B rides this track well (Sean B is injured I think) – he’s got some decent back form and is unexposed. There are some questions but I thought that IF he ran his race, he could have too much in hand for these, and thus at 5s or so I was happy to dive in. The yard are going well, and Fry does well with 1st CP. Hopefully he can kick things off and pay for the rest, then I can relax and enjoy the bigger priced pokes on the day.

I could leave the rest, there’s some exposed ones in this. Captain C had a hard race LTO and wasn’t value to my eyes, and nor was Venetia’s. And the others have questions. This is about whether Acting Lass lives up to his promise and build on LTO in what is a substantial enough drop in class.

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3.15 Aintree…

Yes yes it’s not quite 2m7f+ But rarely can I resist having a go in races over these fences…

Federici looked interesting at 14s given his form around here, over these fences. He’s run in this race before on his first start for the yard, he ran ok, but it’s his Becher Chase runs that give hope that he may outrun these odds.  I think this trip in soft could be ideal for him and this has to have been the plan – it could well be his ‘Gold Cup’ – he’s jumped these fences well having watched his races back and he’s 8lb lower than his 10l 5th in last year’s Becher Chase. He’s gone well fresh before and I suspect his season is all about this race. At 14s i’ll roll the dice in what looked an open race.

3.35 Sandown…

Well i’ve gone for a lightly raced, young, ‘could be anything type’ in conditions – so obviously now an old time will take it 🙂 This one is interesting and he’s actually 3/7 over fences with his French runs… staying on efforts in very soft over 2m6f+. He does shape as if he could relish this trip and it could bring out more. It may have taken him time to acclimatise over here but his Ascot return was promising enough. Henderson is in flying form, Jacob rides this track well and they have a great record when teaming up here. He’s also only had one runner in the race and he came a close second. I thought he looked the most interesting.

I’ll mention two more…Sharp Response is interesting as he stays – I wasn’t sure if he’s just a C3 animal and i’m not sure he wants it that testing/sticky. I could be wrong on that and the yard are going well. He could run a big race. Dark Flame ran ok LTO but in a vets race, he may bounce, was held up cold there, and isn’t getting any younger. He could find this too hot but he did shape LTO as if worth a go over a trip like this. I could see him outrunning his odds.

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So, that’s today. The worst case isn’t disastrous but i’ll keep everything crossed for a good day! 🙂

Best of luck.

p.s – if you’ve any fancies for the other Aintree races do shout, i’ve not had time to look…

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Couple of bits to kick off
    How bad do you think Aintree will be 2moz Josh???
    iv been in the area today and it was wet this morning (Fri) so obvs rained during the night, and then hammered it down for an hour maybe this afternoon so id be thinking its defo guna be soft, not sure if anymore rain to come

    And Nick !!
    Noticed Dark Flame is back out 2moz in the last at Sandown. Thought bit of a point to it coming back to this course again after going well last time. Carrying a low W again and only went up a couple for that last time. was keen to hear you’r thoughts, 12/1 decent i thought

    Ryan Mercer 06/12/19 7:10 PM Reply


    • hmm, well according to clerk’s update via BHA as of 6.55 am or so, they had no rain overnight and are not expecting any during the day. GN course soft, the rest GS – should be testing enough but not bad ground.

      Josh 07/12/19 7:15 AM Reply


  • AW T/T
    2 winners friday Bold Approach5/1> 7/1 and for a 2nd time Art of America 10/1 > 7/1

    There are 2 for Sat.

    7.50 W Hidden Depths…N Mulholland Hcp…14/1
    Last Enchantment…N Mulholland Hcp…20/1

    Mike

    mickeydee 06/12/19 10:29 PM Reply


  • Settled on 2 bets for the Becher
    Le Breuil at 25s, but can’t leave Walk in the Mill as was proved last year this race suits very well and they can ready him for it. As de Me and Kimberlight Candy especially were last 2 to leave but settled on the above 2

    Ryan Mercer 07/12/19 12:29 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    As I`m off to Aintree today don`t really have time for the write ups, may do it on train when i get get settled, so, here are selections then the write ups may follow.

    13:30 Aintree
    VIEUX LION ROUGE 1pt win 10/1 gen
    AS DE MEE 1pt win 14/1 gen

    15:15 Aintree
    GOLD PRESENT 1pt win 7/1 gen
    FEDERICI 1pt win 16/1 gen

    15:35 Sandown
    VINNIE LEWIS 1pt win 10/1 gen
    SHANROE SANTOS 1pt win 12/1 gen

    Write ups maybe later, if not hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    Stewart 07/12/19 8:00 AM Reply


    • Both on LTR site and in his weekly newsletter HW states today’s race has been the target for Vinnie Lewis and is expecting a big run.

      Chris R.

      Chris Randall 07/12/19 8:22 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    TIP TOP
    No bet today
    Colin

    cleafe 07/12/19 8:54 AM Reply


  • ARUBA
    12.30 Aintree Fixed Rate 16/1
    2.25 Sandown Song For Someone 12/1
    3.35 Sandown Houblon Des Obeaux 22/1
    7.20 Wolverhampton Francis Xavier 7/1
    Colin

    cleafe 07/12/19 10:07 AM Reply


  • So far it’s been a roller coaster week with 2 decent wins on Tuesday (11.0 & 12.0) and then a blank three days with several places. Tagur on Thursday came a neck 2nd to the Fav’ @ 16.9 and then yesterday House Island came 2nd by 1/2 a length at 25.0. In the same boat as Josh at the moment, but can’t complain really when you’re getting these kind of performances from horses that are priced as outsiders. Still in profit on the week so generally happy with the results so far.

    Back in an hour with the bulletin for today’s bets.

    Tim Hanson 07/12/19 10:36 AM Reply


    • Today’s races…….. 1.25, 2.15, 250, 3.20 & 3.40. Back with the 1.25 @ 1.00

      Tim Hanson 07/12/19 11:48 AM Reply


      • Chep’ 1.25 Montanna…… 11.0

        Tim Hanson 07/12/19 1:05 PM Reply


        • Weth’ 2.15 No Bet

          Tim Hanson 07/12/19 1:58 PM Reply


          • Just the one tonight at Wolves in the 7.20. Back at 7.00.

            Tim Hanson 07/12/19 4:06 PM Reply


  • Weth’ 2.50 Lord Springfield….. 8.0

    Tim Hanson 07/12/19 2:33 PM Reply


    • Navan 3.20 Inviction……. 11.0

      Back with AW at 4.00

      Tim Hanson 07/12/19 3:05 PM Reply


      • Wolv’ 7.20 Busy Street 10.0

        That’s all for today.

        Tim Hanson 07/12/19 7:03 PM Reply


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