Members Daily Post: 06/12/19 (complete)

Tipsx3+ write ups, Section 2 (complete), test zone, video review

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily  Tips Main (running total below) (Test: 7/57,22p,+9.3) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 22/147, 45p +25.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.05 Exeter 

#1 – MUSTMEETALADY – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/WH/BV/UniB) UP – travelled ominously well through that, and looked dangerous, until petrol emptied 3 out or so.

#2 – MORNEY WING – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP 28s, drift told story there, never really going, poor. Unexposed one took it, she was a chase maiden and I took a dim view to her run LTO, wanted to see more- but Ben Jones can do no wrong at moment.

1.40 Sedge

#3- BORIC – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen) UP 9/1, market an indication this time – poor ride, not that it made a difference, but he stays further and he’s sat still for an age – travelled/jumped well for a long way but couldn’t go with front two from top of hill. Could have a weak Vets chase in him somewhere maybe. 

as of 08.40, 09.08… that’s all for today .. write up incoming

 

2.55 Sandown 

NONE… i’ll leave this one.

 

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2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Exeter

12.25 – Tactical Manoeuvre (micro class) G3 13/2  WON

2.35 – Sandy Beach (m dist) G3 14/1 S1 UP

3.05 –

Holdbacktheriver (all Hc’s) ES+ 11/1 S3A UP

Belle Empress (all Hc’s) 9/1  WON 9/1>7/2 

 

Sandown

2.55 – Loose Chips (m runs) LG3 10/1 S1  UP

 

Sedgefield

1.05 – Xpo Universel (HcH) 25/1 S2A

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TTP Chase Micros 

1.20 Sand – Antony 16s / Darebin 8s  L

1.55 Sand – Ballinslea Bridge 9/2 L / Editeur Du Gite 10s / Eragon De Chanay 11s

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

December Pointers

Trainer 

12.55 Exet – Sporting John  2/5

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers 

2.35 Exet – Sandy Beach (14/1<) 16/1

3.05 Exet- Nativegiveaway (14/1<)  11/2 

1.20 Sand – Rock on Rocky (10/1<)  12/1

1.20 Sand – JohnBB (13/2<) 5/2 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

1.20 Sand – JohnBB 5/2 

2.55 Sand – Barbrook Star 9/2 

2.45 Sedge – Twasnt The Plan 3s 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW…. Trends Thursday Post HERE>>>

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Race Review…

Review video below as I talk through the race replay as it happens… some reflection on the poor picks, thoughts on two at top of market, and 3/4 others that it may be worth keeping an eye on moving forwards… 11 mins long… 

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Write ups…

1.40 Boric –

I’m quite aware i’ve said a few times ‘ill never back another 11 yo’ and I appear to have backed one again – it isn’t the age range to be backing generally but alas, i find myself in a position where I can’t help myself and i’m probably best not making ‘never again’ type statements…

I do think this is about whether he runs his race/returns to the form of when he was last seen over fences- and thus 11/2 / 6s or so seemed worth a go – in the context of this race. This must be one of the worst chases he’s run in for quite some time to my eyes and in the last he has a level of form this lot couldn’t match. He had a pipe opener in a novice hurdle LTO – he was never going to keep tabs over that trip/against those, and no doubt needed it. He’s won and gone close on his second start after 300+ days previously, including a PU on one of those. Conditions are fine and he’s a CD winner. He’s very well handicapped on his old form.

Clearly he may not be at that level anymore but he shouldn’t need to be. I also thought there was every chance that they try and make all here, and use his galloping/jumping. IF he’s a1 he could get a few lengths up here and he shouldn’t be stopping.

I suspect he wins fairly well or is struggling halfway through the final circuit. If he does fold then it is very open up against a moderate bunch and you’d fancy the 6/4 jolly to take it – albeit Hammonds has a chance. I can’t have the rest and it did look a 3 horse race to my eyes. But the fav needs to step up and that wasn’t great form LTO, in a race run at a dawdle – but he did run well and a repeat, if mine folds, would probably be enough.

I thought he was worth chancing as for his age he’s not over-raced, and I didn’t like any of the more lightly raced ones. The market may well tell the story and a big drift may indicate he’s gone at the game/needs another run or two, but they must think there’s something there and the fact they run him here, at a track he and the trainer do well at, was some indication I thought.

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3.05 –

Mustmeetalady…

Jonjo has won this race a couple of times and I suspect this has been the plan, certainly since his last run which was decent, chasing home Petite Power in 4th. Maybe that rival will confirm the form but he’s up in the weights and this trip will suit the selection more – well a reason it would bring them closer. PP stays well also, but wasn’t value to my eyes.

Conditions look fine- he’s handled soft no problem. I fancied him 4 runs ago where I thought soft may have been the excuse- but on reflection I think he’s just inconsistent. You wouldn’t want a short price again but the blinkers appear to have made a difference. The yard are in form and RM is riding well. This one can track the pace, he jumps, he gallops – and when on a going day does just keep going. Looking back he has some superior form to many in here and is well handicapped to compete – he’s won at C2 previously.

IF he’s obviously on a going day – ie travelling like he did LTO tracking the pace – he should out-run 11s, and he looked worth a go.

He’s the first of two ‘hardier/been there and done it’ stayers, with some 3m4f wins to his name – inc one at Haydock where he wasn’t stopping, albeit on better ground. He may enjoy this 3m6f. He ‘could’ have an off day, but that was built into the price- i’ll hope the blinkers continue to work.

Morney Wing…

Another ‘been there and done’ it type at the more exposed end  – but handling conditions/staying in these races can be more important than being on an upward trajectory – I also looked at some stats for this race, briefly – and the 9/10/11 YO brigade have done much better than the youngsters.

He should appreciate a return to this trip. Mann doesn’t sound that bullish on the Lambourn trainers site- albeit I’m not sure he ever does – and says he could ‘run into a place’ – well if he can do that, he can win. He also says softer ground over this trip isn’t ideal – his 3m5f win at Sandown in Soft, in context he’s 14s, wouldn’t necessarily back that up.

In reality I couldn’t ignore the drop in class nor his 3rd place in The Eider Chase in February – maybe that’s the plan again but this is no Eider Chase and if he repeats that, off 2lb lower, he’d win. He has carried big weights to victory before, albeit not over a trip like this – so that’s a niggle also – but 14s shots are rarely bombproof/obvious. I thought he may have needed his last run also, having UR early on when returning in Oct. And he does just want a trip. At his best he’d jump out, track the pace (Dancing Shadow) jump well and lob along.

Hopefully both mind are in the chasing pack, and not held up.

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Of the rest…

Lord Getaway – if I were tipping in this last night he’d have given me a decision to make at 8s (albeit that lasted around 15 minutes) but at 9/2 I can’t wade in – I can’t say that’s overpriced – he may be worth a saver, as I do think he’s got a race like this in him. But he’s still a chase maiden, and Treadwell hasn’t ridden a winner for ages – he’s yet to race around here, and the level of his form is only ok – well it’s nowhere near the selections (they have to run their race of course) and he needs to step up – I think the track may suit – but diving into him at 9/2 makes leaving Tizzards yesterday at 5s a bit questionable- these are the decisions that forever will leave me pondering. He can lose his position, and make the odd sticky jump also. But he does just look a dour stayer.

Of the ‘younger/unexposed’ ones, he would be the most interesting of them for me.

Dancing Shadow and Petite Power didn’t look overpriced and they have new questions to answer, esp with inexperienced claimers on. Obviously L Harrison has been seen to good effect on PP. But he’s now up in the ratings again and has had two tough enough races and LTO wasn’t that strong.

Nativegetaway and Belle Empress are both chase maidens – they have that to prove, class and stamina – I thought they may be just a tad too inexperienced, and stamina is a complete unknown. At 11/2 and 8s/9s I was happy to leave the pair in a race like this – of course you can never be totally shocked if they relish it, but i’d want double figures+ to find out, in the context of this race. Stockburn has similar questions, he’s in and out and can hit a fence, I’m not sure he shapes like wanting a slog either.

And I could leave the other three, they need to show much more/step up.

I suppose it has an open feel but I thought mine looked far too big in this.

We will find out soon enough. GL

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2.55 Sandown – given the inexperienced jockeys etc i’ve decided to leave. Obviously I looked at Barbrook having won for us LTO- 6s or so wasn’t quite big enough – this could be testing enough ground and that’s an unknown to a point, although handled it at Chepstow well enough. But he can make the odd error – even under TOB/Dicky – and around here, with an inexperienced claimer (1/3 in hunter chases/I assume may have ridden point winners) I didn’t think he was overpriced. I think he will relish the trip/track in terms of it’s stiffness as he shapes like 3m4f will be worth a go at some point. He’s the only one i’d contemplate being with. I wouldn’t begrudge Plantagenet a win – and if he does, that will boost Mustmeetalady’s/PP form from that Chelt run. He may have won for us there but for getting 2 out all wrong – but he was only 4s here. I hope he goes well.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. AW T/T
    A place Iron Heart,
    6 runners for Friday

    7.00 N Dahik…M Easterby…16/1 gen
    7.15 D Theobald…J Bolger T/J Dist…11/2 365
    7.45 D Bold Approach…J Bolger T/J…5/1 365 sky
    Sheisdiesel…N Meade Hcp…7/1 sky
    8.15 D The Hall…J Bolger T/J Dist…15/2 bf
    8.45 D Art of America…N Meade Hcp…10/1 wh 4pl
    This one won for us 22 nov 20/1>8/1sp

    Mike

  2. ARUBA
    1.20 Sandown Paddys Poem 6/1
    1.55 Sandown Burbank 8/1
    3.15 Newcastle Hooflepuff 4/1
    6.30 Newcastle Summer Daydream 13/2
    winner yesterday sole bet 5/2 SP 3/1
    3 winners from 6 bets + 14.5 would be more with BOG, pleased that finally remembered the correct rules for this method, no doubt all 4 will lose today!
    Colin

  3. Having a look at the Becher and Grand Sefton now and as creatures of habit is mentioned, what are everyone`s early thought`s on a Nicholls/Frost double at Aintree tomorrow with AS DE MEE and TOUCH KICK?

    1. I’ve just started looking – IF this is soft/testing enough – i’m not convinced As De Mee will get home – fences obv no problem given sefton win, but his best form on a better surface, possible? I just wonder if he will find stronger stayers in these conditions- won a small field race at Kelso over 26f, where races prom – on decent ground – not sure if that’s a good guide for this, albeit of course he has then technically won over 26f! Maybe it’s what he wants now. I’m not so sure myself.

  4. Today’s afternoon races of interest…. 12.35, 12.45, 1.05, 1.40, 2.05, 2.25, & 2.35. Not that they will all make the minimum. AW, if any, to follow.

    First up…
    12.35 Dubai Days………. 11.0

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