Members Club Results Update (my Tips/advised strategies): NOV 2019/year to date
(this NEW spreadsheet tracks my main chase tips, test tips and a selection of strategies/starting points)
Daily Chase Tips (main)
These tips focus on staying chases (2m7f+), class 4 and above.
29 bets / 2 wins / 7p / -16
These results date from 22nd Feb, which is when I decided to go back to basics and focus on the staying chasers and not distract myself with other tips, including various other ‘tests’ I was doing across all race types. A few months later I’d also ditch any attempts at tipping across all codes, including the flat. These efforts drained me mentally resulting in a negative impact on all my tipping efforts. I now just focus/specialise on handicap chases and the big Jumps Festivals. The blog started with me looking at handicap chases, mainly staying races, and this move has been positive so far.
So, results since 22nd Feb to End NOV 2019
122 bets / 21 wins / 42 places (inc wins) / +34.8 points (advised) / +34.8 (advised/bog) / +32.1 BFSP
The 1st of Jan to 21st Feb 2019 results for my ‘daily tips’ before refocusing… 0/15,2p, -16 points. This was on the back of a horrid middle/latter part of 2018, again where I was trying to be a jack of all trades, ending up a master of sod all. 🙂
So, in 2019 All my members’ main daily tips are:
137 bets / 21 wins / 42 places (inc wins) / +18.8 (advised/bog) / +12.7 BFSP
November was a horrid month again in what was/has been a horrid Autumn. I’m writing this having tipped a 16/1 winner on December 2nd which retrieved my October losses and now gives me something to build on again. So, those figures above don’t look as mediocre.
I will discuss losing runs at some other point in time, as understanding them and dealing with them is arguably one of the most important aspects of this game.
Having looked back at the results on the blog since the start of 2014… my 3m+ chase tips and Festival/Big Race tips are on around +460 points profit, which isn’t too bad. But, plenty of ups and downs along the way and i’d like to have a good December to round off the year.
I would like the main daily chase tips to pull in 50-80 points per year and i’m a bit below that at the moment, with one month to go.
As a reminder these strategies stem from my Trainer Track Profiles qualifiers detailed in Section 2 of the daily members’ posts. Many members use the members content, including stats qualifiers and tips, as starting points for their own study. However, there are a handful of systematic ‘strategies’ which can be backed over time successfully, or again used as starting points.
(S = ‘strategy’) These codes are added next to qualifiers on the morning of racing so you know if a horse is a strategy qualifier or not. No need to get your head around the rules for when a horse is a qualifier or not, albeit i’d always advise doing so.
2019 to date, as of END NOV
Jumps S1: 114 bets / 10 wins / 20 w|p / -0.15 (8am prices/bog) / -7.95 BFSP
Jumps S3A# : 89 bets / 17 wins / 37 w|p / -13.175.825 (8am prices/bog)
Flat S6: 138 bets / 13 wins / 32 w|p / -7.55 (8am prices/bog) / -1.28 BFSP (no more bets/year end)
Thoughts… another month where these strategies haven’t really moved and have yet to capture last year’s glories. We shall see what the two jumps strategies do in February – S1 will land on the odd biggie which will make the difference. Jumps S3A# has been disappointing but may yet turn around and I still maintain confidence in it long term. But in truth 2019 is looking rather mediocre on the ‘advised strategies’ front.
As per last months results update, there’s a couple more strategies which have been ticking along, that may be worth considering, if nothing else as a ‘way in’.
Taking 2019 to: 109 bets / 27 wins / 51p / +34.825 (8am prices/bog)
This strategy returned in September, having had the summer off, so there should be qualifiers in the weeks ahead, through to the end of April 2020.
From Jan 1st to End April 2019: 100 bets / 30 wins / 57 places (inc wins) / +38.51 (8am prices/bog)
September/October/Nov: 31 bets / 3 wins / 11p / -11.25
Hopefully this one continues to tick along also albeit the Autumn hasn’t been great.
Both Flat and Jumps S4 had a quiet time in 2018. They were just about profitable. I’ll reassess them come the end of the year, but it could be they are worth considering ‘systematically’ again for 2020. Time will tell but in any case they’re certainly an OK ‘way in’ for finding bets.
Jumps W1 + W2
If you like using the Section 2 stats qualifiers as a ‘starting point’ you could focus on those qualifiers that won LTO (w1) or won two starts ago (w2), to help with shortlisting possible bets.
In 2019 so far, to end of November:
w1: 220 bets / 47 wins / 95p / +6.35 (8am prices/bog)
w2: 227 bets / 47 wins / 82p / +30.12 (8am prices/bog)
As a ‘way in’ for further analysis they’re not a bad place to start, as they do home in on plenty of winners.
That’s all for this month’s update.