Members Daily Post: 03/12/19 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 22/141, 45p +31.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.45 Ling – MONBEG AQUADUDE – 1 point win – 22/1 (SkyB/WH/BV) 20/1 (others) UP 16s – well it was his best chase rules run to date, which isn’t saying too much! He has travelled/jumped  much better and down the back I lived in hope he may get competitive – it’s a shame they didn’t try and be ultra aggressive but there we go – he’s clearly a monkey/haven’t found the key as yet- maybe he just won’t live up to expectations, and i’m not sure in what scenario he’d be worth risking again. The winner was unexposed and did run OK LTO – but travelled like a different horse here, cruising around – maybe he was just much happier on heavy/and this track and/or came on for that run LTO. He has some ok form but I couldn’t be confident enough to wade in at 6s or so – but he’s done it well. Not form to get excited over. 

that’s all for today, as of 8am, write up at bottom of post…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/57,22p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None – i’m focussing all my brain power/analytical time on said races above, which are the priority. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

NONE

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

December Trainer

(appear to have failed to save angle in HRB, apols) 

2.05 South – Victarion (any) 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

12.30 South – Bee Crossing (any) L 10/1 UP/ Lamanver Odyssey 9/2  UP(13/2<) 

1.00 South – Vado Forte (13/2<) 5/2 

1.45 Ling – Monbeg Aquadude (any) 20/1  UP

3.15 Ling – Shanahans Turn 9/4 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

NEW POST… please read >>> 

‘RTP Academy: The Ratings Pointers’  READ HERE>>>

(this includes a revised/updated report into how the ratings sets used in Section 2 perform more generally, inc Geegeez Speed analysis – to help you with winner finding/shortlisting if you so wish – and some ideas on what to do once you’ve got a shortlist) 

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NEW POLL / BEST ODDS GUARANTEED >>>

 

Do You Have Access To BOG Accounts?

  • Yes, just one (29%, 32 Votes)
  • Yes, three or more (57%, 63 Votes)
  • No, I just take advised price (4%, 4 Votes)
  • No, I bet to Industry SP (0%, 0 Votes)
  • No, I bet to BFSP (or choose to regardless) (11%, 12 Votes)

Total Voters: 110

 

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1.45 Lingfield – Write up >>>

This 22/1 poke may not amount to much and in effect i’m rolling the dice, or indeed flipping a coin, as to whether the blinkers work – IF they do, and this horse puts his best foot forward, he’d beat this lot in these conditions. Deep in the memory is a horse for G McPherson who won at 50s one day, at Chepstow, in a 3 miler. I was on something else, but the horse had 1st blinkers on and the jockey switched up tactics, blasting him out from the front and he never looked back. This headgear, especially if combined with a change to aggressive tactics, can work wonders for seemingly ‘out of form’ horses, especially the moderate ones. I hope BP boots him up there and at least tries to get him interested. Connections may not know what to expect either and as such the market may not be much guide. 

Some stats… well he hits my M Scudamore test zone angle above and he was also the trainer’s ‘dark horse to follow’ in one of those guest ‘to follow’ posts I pulled together (which can be found in the Free Reports/Systems tab at top of blog), and they’ve highlighted a few decent winners already. I’ll get onto the horses form in a moment, esp his point win. 

  • MS is 3/10,4p in the last 14 days
  • In the last 5 years… 18/92, 30p with 8 year olds in handicap chases, +48 
  • 17/84, 29p, +19 with handicap chasers over 24f 
  • 23/107, 43p, +34 with handicap chasers in class 4
  • 4/21, 6p, +22 in handicap chases with B Powell riding – 3 of those this year. 
  • 4/19, 7p, +14 with his handicap chasers wearing blinkers. In fact he had Mysteree very nearly win at Newcastle a few weeks back in 1st blinkers, having seemingly been out of form. 
  • He’s also 6/34, 12p, +45 BFSP with.. handicap chase/ PU LTO / 2m7.5f-3m1f 

 

Now, all of that good foundation work may amount to very little when he’s held up, doesn’t show an interest and is tailed off with a mile to go. But, as well as that stats foundation, he does have the form to compete…

I’ll go back to his point win – I think he cost a fair bit after that – he beat River Wylde (150s) and Some Chaos (140s, also MS trained now) in that point. Clearly they look to have progressed a bit more than MA so far! 

He also ran well twice in maiden hurdles, one in a swamp at FL when he won – that looked worse that soft. The horse he beat there would win a C3 hncp hurdle on his next few starts, rated 127. The 3rd came into that with a rating of 124. His Chepstow 4th before that win was solid, the 2nd rated in the 130s. 

In four starts he’s dropped from an opening mark of 122 to 102. Clearly he’s had the odd issue given the breaks he’s had. 

He returned two starts back on ground probably lively enough but he was never put into the race really. His run LTO wasn’t great, albeit in a much better race than this given the ratings of the oppo. Maybe he just had an off day or wants proper heavy ground. The fact he returns 13 days later here suggests he didn’t have a physical problem, and given the headgear switches, they must be thinking it’s in his head. He should be fit and he has the form to beat them. I think he will relish the going/conditions, and what could be a slow dawdle. Maybe he just takes a few runs to get up to speed. 

His best RPR is only 114 (for his win), albeit that’s clearly better than his mark of 102, and if he got to that level, he’d win. Clearly he isn’t a 130s animal like some of those he’d been beating/finishing around in some of those races mentioned above. But, I suspect there’s a 115/120 horse lurking under the bonnet – it’s just a case of when/IF they find the key to him. The fact his trainer highlighted him as a ‘dark horse’ to follow suggests he shows them something at home. 

So, we can dream – IF he takes hold of the bridle and is obviously travelling/jumping well (hopefully on the front end) then strap yourself in, as he won’t be very far away at all come the line. 

Of course, it may be over rather soon! 

There’s nothing else i’d want to be with in this race at the prices- it’s a woeful bunch and if you’re taking a short price on some of those you should give your head a wobble 🙂 As with yesterday’s race they’re just not a great bunch. 

The Manuscript is interesting but proper heavy (and this could be very testing) is a complete unknown. That form LTO wasn’t great either. Seaston Spirit is a horrid price given his profile – he can hit a fence, and runs as if he needs 4 miles – maybe this heavy ground/slog will inspire him – I can see him plugging on but I can’t take 6s to find out. The yard are going well though and he’s unexposed. Pres may follow up again but again, the form is poor, and at this level they can be inconsistent . He should go well though, but I couldn’t touch him at 10/3 and want to take him on. Ballyart shouldn’t be finishing ahead of him if they run the same race as LTO. Ruby Yeats has stamina to prove, and in this ground – a no from me – and the yard are a bit hit and miss at the moment – more miss. Kingston Ms form is atrocious and has stamina to prove, I’m not sure he will get home.

Burgess Dream is exposed, but likes it here, likes the mud, and stays. He gets Paddy in the saddle and 1st visor – I can see the case for him and reasons why everything else doesn’t run very well- there are worse 9s shots but he could have just regressed – like mine he needs the headgear to work. 

Three In One is in the unknown territory – so unknown that I couldn’t risk him. Too much guessing. But only the 7th run of his life, so you never fall off your seat if something like this takes a race like this – but i would be mildly surprised! The same applies to Beat Topper. 

So, that’s this race. 

Tom Cannon will try and make all on his – I just hope mine is ridden more aggressively. I do think this is about whether the blinkers work – he could be thrown in off 102 if they do. It’s a risky one obviously, so don’t throw rotten fruit/veg at me if it’s all over rather soon! 🙂 He’s a 20s shot after all! You don’t want to be wading in with too many like this over a season, but I will land on one at some point. 

GL

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

38 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • AW T/T
    No winner today. Only 1 for tomorrow.

    4.00 D National Asset Bolger T/J 10/1 sky/BV 4places

    Mike

    mickeydee 02/12/19 5:44 PM Reply


  • Just been Reviewing BOG Bookies…

    So, from when BOG is available… (not whether you can get more than 5p matched! 🙂 )

    Anytime/from when race priced up… Bet365 / Ladbrokes / Coral / UniBet / BoyleS

    From 00.01 on day of race.. SkyBet . (Betway ‘on the day’ / from morning…)

    7am – Betfred

    8am – PaddyP/BetfS

    9am – BetV

    10am – William Hill?? I think they are moving to 10am soon I believe, if they’re not already. / Blacktype

    Advice on others welcome!

    Josh 02/12/19 6:00 PM Reply


    • Hi Josh,

      I’m pretty certain only B365 do the day before when races are priced up. Boyles do it from 00.01 on the day of the race and Unibet from a certain time in the morning.

      salman 02/12/19 7:22 PM Reply


      • Hmm, I’ll have to check again. I took that from the synopsis you get on odds checker when hovering over the green Bog tick at top on any race/odds dashboard.

        Coral/Ladbroke PR guy (or employee anyway I think) confirmed was evening before. But I’ll have to find the Ts and Cs given what Ken says below as maybe they’ve changed very recently.
        What a muddle.

        BV changed to 9am today I think, or this month.

        Still, there’s enough from 8/9am to legitimately declare to bog still I think! As a well as advised/non bog and BFSP

        Josh 02/12/19 7:49 PM Reply


        • It’s a muddle really! I’m pretty certain Ladbrokes are on the day and this is what Coral’s website says.

          ‘Best Price Guaranteed will be offered as displayed on the website to online UK & Irish horse races bets only on the day of the event unless otherwise stated.’

          Fair play to Betvictor who emailed to say the had changed their conditions, some don’t even bother telling you.

          How long before B365 join all the others?!

          salman 02/12/19 8:15 PM Reply


          • Hmm, not sure. Believe Bet365 may be on another level finance/business wise/global reach, so they prob won’t change, and may look to take advantage of being market leader in that sense. But time will tell.

            Josh 02/12/19 8:20 PM Reply


    • Bet365 are the only one to still give me BOG. All the others have either closed my account or removed the BOG facility from me.

      coverdp 03/12/19 7:45 AM Reply


    • I get BOG with Bruce Betting from 00:01. Thought BetV and BoyleS were night before, but sounds like BetV might have changed. Only other for me is William Hill.

      Steve Goodall 03/12/19 8:01 AM Reply


  • That’s not quite right Josh. I thought Coral were Ok night before but it’s now on the day of the race – quote from their website “place a real money single bet on Horse Racing on the day of the event”
    Same for Ladbrokes which as you’d expect is pretty much word for word with Coral. So I think that just leaves the other three available night before.

    Ken McKenzie 02/12/19 6:47 PM Reply


    • Oddschecker has now been updated with the bookies new BOG policies.

      Ken McKenzie 03/12/19 10:18 AM Reply


      • ah yes, so they have – that’s different for a few of them from yesterday. Good spot.

        Josh 03/12/19 10:27 AM Reply


  • ARUBA
    Today had an 8/1 winner, BFSP 12.50 and one loser, will start putting them up in December but the official start will be 1st of January.
    Tomorrow maybe difficult for all bets including Colins bets and Tip Top for have an early appointment, will do my best, and will have to put them up early.
    Aruba when first put up got the rules wrong for the method, is another method going back 20 years, so will have to see how it works out over time, but now its up and running again.
    Colin.

    cleafe 02/12/19 7:09 PM Reply


  • I bet to BFSP purely because of time and effort really. I don’t want to spend time looking for that extra half point or point nor do I want the hassle of managing multiple accounts or spend time keeping up to date with all the latest T’s & C’s. I don’t have the time for it anyway and if I did I don’t think I’d do it. I had 3 big wins in the last few days at 38.0, 23.0 and 27.0 at BFSP that were 25/1,16/1 and 20/1 at SP, I forgot to click for the Hennessy winner at 12/1 which was 20.06 at BFSP (Bloody annoying). Of course I’m going to miss plenty that shorten but I’m still getting good value in the grand scheme of things. The debate is simply a trade off between time and money at the end of the day for the part time punter, for those of us that have to slave away most days. I prefer to be much more duller than those that enjoy eeking out an extra 10% or so of BOG value by wasting my
    time buried in the entertaining world of Excel zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

    I really don’t know how people can hark on about fine margins in racing as yesterdays results prove. I had 3 winners, Josh’s fantastic liberating win which hacked up by a nose, Arabic culture which spreadeagled the field by another nose and Everkyllachy that cruised home in 2nd and got placed 1st.

    handbag 02/12/19 7:16 PM Reply


    • Yep, that all makes sense. Haven’t checked mines BFSP today, 23.00 was it? Nice.
      BFSP has been near enough same as advised/bog on my daily tips I think, and for the Festival tips it should outstrip I’d have thought, over time. Obv not this year, ahem. But they land on enough biggies in time.

      Oh harking on it fine!! Provided in the context that it all Evens out over time. Of course its always more testing when in a losing run but that’s the game.
      Mad what one nice winner does to the mood!

      Josh 02/12/19 7:57 PM Reply


      • The 23.0 was for Last Date on Saturday…. I done bad with yours today and took 13.0 because of your convincing write up and a day off from work!!

        handbag 02/12/19 8:01 PM Reply


  • And then there’s dealing with restrictions too.

    handbag 02/12/19 7:21 PM Reply


  • Unibet are BOG the night before. I’m pretty sure

    freezing1 02/12/19 8:18 PM Reply


  • From Unibet – Our Best Odds Guaranteed offer is available daily on all UK and Ireland horse racing bets, from when your bet is placed.

    Ladbrokes – To claim this Sports Promotion, place a real money single bet on Horse Racing on the day of the event (“Qualifying Bet”)

    salman 02/12/19 8:46 PM Reply


  • Hey Josh, you know how us punters often find events conspiring to ensure we miss a winner. Well, I am in the Geegeez syndicate that owns Mystical Knight so had to leave home quite early yesterday to get to Plumpton. Went with a mate, socialised with other syndicate members etc and although I had opened the RTP page on my phone before I left, I forgot to check it. It wasn’t as though we were expecting Mystical Knight to win but to back the winner would have been cheering!
    Hugh

    alpha2 03/12/19 6:03 AM Reply


    • Ah damn…
      I stared and stared at your boy, he was my initial one of interest, but price just wasn’t big enough for the niggles – he’s ran well enough, certainly more promise there- I assume may come on for the run a tad?
      If he were mine i’d consider putting some headgear on him, (at times looked liked lacked bit of focus, esp as headed out final time/Aidan tapping him down neck etc) blinkers maybe, and blasting him out in front – maybe a fontwell, 3m2f+, soft+, and see how he goes. Hopefully AJH can find key for you all. He generally jumped well and he looks a big old unit, a galloper, so track may not have been ideal. Best two runs at flatter tracks, Hereford/Newbury – maybe a return to the former may spark some happy memories for him!
      Josh

      Josh 03/12/19 7:59 AM Reply


      • Just heard he’s got a badly swollen leg. Horses heh!

        alpha2 03/12/19 2:19 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    6.15 Wolverhampton Flora Tristan
    will look back at Oddschecker to see what price they were showing at 10am, when arrive home.
    TIP TOP
    No bet
    ARUBA
    No bet
    Colin.

    cleafe 03/12/19 8:03 AM Reply


  • Again nothing today stands out so just a few very small bets on those that caught the eye.
    Southwell.
    12-30. Carnspindle
    1-00. Valdo Forte
    2-05. Moidore
    3-05. Ex S’elance
    Lingfield.
    1-45. Burgess Dream
    2-15. The Gipper
    2-45. Jaisalmer. Lord Ballim

    martin whittle 03/12/19 9:16 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Victorian, 205 Southwell, a qualifier for the December trainers. trained by Hobbs ?

    Jamesm 03/12/19 10:46 AM Reply


    • Hi James,

      I do find it helps if I actually save the sodding angle!! 🙂 Good spot – not sure what has happened there, must have clicked the wrong button on Sunday. JPs is saved, but I couldn’t find that one – corrected now, albeit too late today for many, albeit he’s only 3s.
      cheers, Josh

      Josh 03/12/19 11:07 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    well done yesterday was on bog with 365.
    My bets these days consist of multiple e.w. lucky 15s with around 28-32 horses a day and up to 3 selections in some races.So it is always a logistical challenge to balance bog +price boosts+extra places so perhaps your win only approach is simpler,but my reasoning is that my way (you would assume is a quick way to the poor house) shows a steady profit is that with some races with a volatile market and bog the bookmakers market can mean they are betting overbroke.especially in the place markets where you are looking for a return on 3 selections and the firms are paying extra places.I find the extra place races take preference over price as the difference between 3and 4 places is a massive difference and if you get a price boost as well -Metsia

    Peter Sharp 03/12/19 11:04 AM Reply


    • HI Peter,
      Thanks for commenting – there are many ways to win/enjoy this sport long term for sure – and appears you’ve found such an approach. I personally don’t like being very busy, much preferring a less is more, but we are all different.
      My best bet – well, its the ‘hindsight forecast’ – i’m a millionaire with those!! 🙂

      Valid points about the place market – I should ponder my approach with the 5/6 places as I know the maths are usually heavily in our favour – however I don’t have an ‘EW analysis’ mindset , never really have – I don’t have the ‘looking for the solid one/will run their race’ racing brain – I could do with thinking in that way a bit more sometimes, especially when being anti the unexposed/lightly raced etc.

      Josh

      Josh 03/12/19 11:14 AM Reply


      • I’ll never understand how you’ll back a 20/1 shot just to win especially with extra places on offer. Maybe they rarely place for you then that makes sense I guess but it can’t be good for the mindset going forward knowing you’ve had nothing back for 20 or 30 bets when the long losing runs kick in. I’d be second guessing everything at that point and losing confidence, but reducing the -20 or -30 by a few points would certainly help with the confidence for me. Clearly you have a much better skills and knowledge at the game than me and maybe that’s why I don’t understand why you don’t bet that way sometimes or at least when you hit a barren spell. Betting at 70/30 or 80/20 maybe an option for you if you ever dip you toe into the murky waters of the Each Way Sea!

        handbag 03/12/19 2:23 PM Reply


  • Yesterday….. 0/2 Early days yet. Today……

    South’ 12.30 No No Juliet……. 7.0

    Back with the race times for later in a mo’.

    Tim Hanson 03/12/19 12:11 PM Reply


    • Later races of interest…… Ling’ 1.45, South’ 2.05, South 2.35 and Wolv’ 5.15

      That’s it for now, will post again 20 min’s before each race.

      Tim Hanson 03/12/19 12:13 PM Reply


      • Ling’ 1.45 Burgess Dream……………11.0

        Tim Hanson 03/12/19 1:28 PM Reply


        • South’ 2.05 Toi Storey………. 7.0

          Tim Hanson 03/12/19 1:54 PM Reply


          • South’ 2.35 Midnight chill……. 6.0

            Tim Hanson 03/12/19 2:20 PM Reply


            • An extra bet has come up in the 6.45 at Wolves. So 2 to go on the sand tonight.

              Tim Hanson 03/12/19 2:22 PM Reply


              • Wolv’ 5.15 International Law……. 7.0

                Tim Hanson 03/12/19 4:58 PM Reply


                • Last one for today….

                  Wolv’ 6.45 Battle Of Marathon… 11.0

                  Tim Hanson 03/12/19 6:29 PM Reply


  • Josh
    just read your comments on the 1.45 about the winner so went on Lambourn trainers to see what Oliver Sherwoods view was if you have not been on worth a read.
    My view the horse is possibly not a good traveller and having it last two runs at Fontwell and Plumpton and according to Oliver disappointed then Lingfield much closer to home, possible this made the difference for it had been working well at home.
    Who knows
    Colin

    cleafe 03/12/19 2:50 PM Reply


    • Hi Colin,

      Yep I did read that – admittedly post race – I had the same thoughts as you as I remembered the lambourn trainers site – pleasingly it wouldn’t have changed my mind at 6s – did seem a bit of a guess up as to what horse would turn up – he had some solid ‘staying on’ efforts in better races to his name over fences – fact he’d entered him for the sales told you everything – maybe the horse knew he was in last chance saloon!
      He travelled so much sweeter today , took a proper grip, and i knew early he’d go close – if jumping (and he nearly capsized up the home straight) Looked a different horse through the race to LTO.
      You could be right about travelling etc – hard to know. He was sent off fav LTO, and clearly if he works well at home that makes sense. Maybe he just came on bundles more for that LTO effort – LA has kept him wide also, and more prominent – maybe daylight helped. They may have tinkered with a few things at home. It was an awful race mind – he did finish just behind mine who won yesterday – so the form was there – but with that profile I’d prefer a bigger price- as per mine – who alas if he didn’t have blinkers on i’d have left the race.

      Josh 03/12/19 2:57 PM Reply


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