Micro Monday: 02/12/19

 

December Pointers

A couple of ‘ways in’ below for December, with a look at one trainer and one owner.

As always, I wouldn’t necessarily advise diving in and backing ‘systematically’. I will post qualifiers in the Test Zone.

November’s three trainers returned a total of 55 bets / 12 winners / 31p / -9 BFSP. A few placed horses which may have made a big difference, albeit morning odds would have no doubt improved that bottom line. They did their job in highlighting a few winners. We shall see how the two below get on >>>

 

Phillip Hobbs

  • National Hunt
  • December
  • Horse 1 run only in previous 90 days
  • Any odds

Note: His fancied horses do well within the rules above (9/1<, +80 BFSP) but do not that he’s had three monsters to go… those priced 25/1>50/1 SP are 3/11,5p, +192 BFSP

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JP McManus

  • National Hunt
  • December
  • Class 2
  • Any Odds

Note: One of you emailed informing me of JPs liking for a C2 December pot – there could be some logic – decent prize money, a few plots, plenty of Xmas bills to pay for! : )  It ‘could’ also be a time of year he can get racing more often than not, likes a bet, or could well be the types of races at this time of year. In any case his C2 runners during every other month of the year perform 13% below market expectations, -120 SP . So, there could be something to it. No doubt he’ll have the odd one go in that doesn’t make any sense on paper although…

The figures are not distorted by one big priced winner…. There has been one at 33s, taking those sent off 14/1 or bigger SP to… 1/23, 3p, +11 . Still, without that the figures still look good.

Interestingly the Nicky Henderson/JP Owned/ C2 runners in December are a perfect 8/8 since the start of 2014.

Those aged 7 or younger are: 64 bets / 23 wins / 29p / 36% sr / +45 SP / +60 BFSP / AE 1.58

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That’s all for this week’s Micro Monday post.

Josh

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