Members Daily Post: 02/12/19 (complete)

Tip x1 . write up, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 22/140, 45p +32.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.30 Plump – TZAR DE LELFE – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/BV) 11/1 (gen) WON 12/1>16/1 . Phew – nice to get a close 2nd go our way – it does all even out over time – he does have the odd scrappy error in him – as they all do, hence why they’re generally racing at this level – and if he’d have jumped 2 or 3 a bit better, that would have been more comfortable. His SP was silly and it was pleasing to see James jump him off prominent – and to read the main danger correctly. It’s an understatement to say I needed that, and there’s still a lot of work to do, but it lifts the mood. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.51, write up at bottom of post…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/57,22p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

JUMPS

Musselburgh

 

Plumpton

1.30 –

Miss Tynte (HcH,m TJC) I3 7/1  WON 9/2 

Tazka (m class) ES+ 11/1 S3A

3.00 – Stormingin (m -class) ES+ H3 6/1 S3A

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Chase Angles 2019/20

LTO Win Starting Point 

2.45 Muss – I’m Too Generous (12/1<) 2/1

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 NEW Micro Monday post HERE>>>

 

2.30 Write up…

I can’t work out why ‘The Tzar’ is outsider of the field here in what looks an open enough race on paper. He’s generally been very consistent for Richard Rowe, having spent his younger days in France. He’s yet to win over fences but is 0/8,6p over here, with many decent seconds. He won an ok handicap hurdle race at Sandown off 3lb higher. Having watched a few of his races back I don’t have a problem with his attitude and I thought today could be the day. His form looks solid – he chased home Plantagenet here (114) and split two 113/115 horses at Chepstow, the 4th there winning a couple of times since. That was a decent enough effort especially as he was ridden too cold/made an early error. Those efforts entitle him to beat this lot. His return LTO was solid – he was cruising into the lead there before clouting 4 out, but he stayed in there pitching, having jumped well to that point. I suspect he may have needed it a tad also, and I’d expect him to step forward again here. James Davies gets the leg up this time and he’s been in decent form in recent days. The horse has been consistent, tries, stays, conditions are fine and he likes it around here. They rode him more prominently LTO and I hope they do so again.  

Of the rest…

Well those with winning LTO form may need to step forward again – the form looks mediocre enough, most of those races with 80/90 rated horses. The Moore horse had a tough race LTO (‘his’ race/winning it for second time) and he’s better over further. But, if he runs his race/keeps tabs on them, will be staying on. Uallrightharry can properly hit a fence and didn’t beat much LTO. He didn’t look overpriced. Kiwi Myths winning form LTO was moderate enough also. 

Money is coming for Tractor Fred and I can see the case. He’s a 7 race maiden now though and his run LTO was just a bit too poor, the odd error. However if he got back to the form of his Southwell run (maybe he prefers LH) he would go very close in this line up. That race is working ok ok.  I didn’t think he was overpriced at 6s or so, but it looks like I may have that wrong. He’s entitled to get better with experience and he may be the main danger. 

I was guessing as to fitness for The Lion Dancer and The Tin Miner and in any case they also need to step forward. 

Mystical Knight is the most interesting horse in the field but at 7s I couldn’t be tempted in – there’s just a bit too much guesswork. He’s owned by ‘geegeez’ Matt and others and I messaged him last night- he said they didn’t know what to expect from him. Clearly if you look back through his form, esp that run two starts back, and way back to his Hereford Novice demolition job – well if he got anywhere near that form he’d demolish this lot. I think he was running for Curtis at a time her yard was a bit iffy, and Antony Honeyball’s were wrong last season also. In the end there was a bit too much guesswork as he could just be gone at the game. He’ll appreciate conditions though and his mark is tumbling, although clearly won’t be as good as he was. If they can get him finishing off his races he’s a few wins in him and he could take this if a1/running his race. That’s the if. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. Back again with a new experiment. Tried an idea out during the summer but decided to put it on hold cos it was difficult to administrate for tips because of the ‘number of runners’ condition. When the flat ended I checked back to see how they got on and found that I clearly should have stuck with them. So been busy creating a jumps version which I’m gonna trial here.

    Same minimum BFSP rule, but I need to leave it till as late as possible as bets appear and disappear purely down to the effects of the non runners. So today I have 2.30 and 6.45, but that could change if there are any withdrawals. Also new bets can appear if a critical withdrawal takes place, so will have to suck ’em and see how it goes from a practicality prospective.

    Unlikely to be any new arrivals today given that there’s almost nothing left to bet on. I’ll put them up for 20 minutes before the off so that’s 1.55 and 6.25 today, right here on this thread.

  2. Huge well done to you Josh. Fantastic pick and the nod was on your side for once. Well deserved and that will hopefully give you the confidence to continue with the luck staying with you we hope.
    Danny

    1. Thanks Danny – it was starting to get very testing mentally, I won’t lie – a mix of bad luck (which is just variance/evens out over time) , shoddy picks, and not being close enough to a few big race winners etc .
      That ‘process’ sheet has helped me, and i’ve spent some time looking back over past winners/missed winners to ram home in my head what I need to be focusing on. But, with a bit more luck that pile looks much bigger, that’s racing. But there’s room for improvement on the analysis front.
      So, work to do – but my word that was needed.

  3. YES JOSH!!!!! YES JOSH!!! ….FINALLY…..ok I’ll stop shouting…One went your way finally , I really thought he’d lost that by a nostril. Really pleased for you!!!

    1. ha, we won’t get too excited Chris – that was more relief – I thought he’d lost live. Anyway, a mental boost which will help my confidence, which always helps in this game.

    1. Did you back it? Of course I never do, always looks so good after the race, even when i’ve highlighted the main danger… a nice 72/1 forecast if you had it!

      1. Yes josh, I did sky bet gave you an extra 10%. I should have done it on the exacta £101.60 but happy with what I got.
        It was a quiet day so after reading your write up the 1st 2 plus Mystical Knight looked worth a combined forecast.
        Keep it going.

        Mike

      1. Haha, I couldn’t bare to look at betfair in the photo…I just walked around kicking stuff…..at least I can afford to pay for the repairs now!!!

  4. Thanks gents – a sigh of relief here, for a variety of reasons, not sure i’d have coped with him losing that in a photo! (which i assumed he had live/slo mo) – esp as he’d have won a shade cosily with the odd better jump, but that’s him.
    There’s been a few agonising placed efforts, but also a) a few too many never sighted, esp in the ‘big’ races b) nowhere near close enough to some of the winners, which irks me more than most things – a step in the right direction – these losing runs happen, rarely can they be avoided, but -30 points or so from high point is always painful, and more so when the profit pile isn’t as healthy as you’d like.
    A timely boost mentally, in what is a busy/big few weeks ahead.
    Much work to do, but onwards. And as i’ve said before if that win/place % stays 30%+, it will all be fine over time.

    1. Well done Josh, about time you got off the mark… 🙂 No, joking aside, it has been a barren period for most of us on here… Thumbs up!!

      1. cheers mate – barren is one way to describe it – bloody woeful would be another haha – partly that’s how it goes, esp the odds we play at – but with my own stuff, some of it just hasn’t been good enough and I don’t like looking for excuses. There’s been a few too many naff picks, muddled thinking, nowhere near some of the winners at prices, which drives me mad – but you can only keep pondering, graft, take confidence from past success etc.
        But I won’t be getting ahead of myself. Hopefully a big month ahead but need to build on this.

  5. Yes Josh !!!!
    Was getting ready to tell the girlfriend its Pigeon for Christmas dinner this year
    Typical i missed the race aswel, will watch it back later looking forward to it !!!

    1. I was preparing to make do with soup, and to learn how to write a CV!! 🙂
      One small step back in the right direction. You’ll enjoy watching it, more so knowing he wins! As live it was painful viewing.

  6. WOW Josh could not believe the returns 16/1, many congrats for the tip @ hope there are some more in the pipe line!!

  7. Josh well done on your much needed winner, did not see the race, so cannot comment.
    Out of interest are you now claiming BOG on your returns, if so you did not use too, if i am correct, only ask for have been advised to drop BOG for my subscription service for many are unable to access BOG and Neil gets a lot of flack over this.
    Colin

    1. Hi Colin –

      I record the results to three price points… (the basic P/L recorded above in section 1 is to bog, in the results tab posts/the spreadsheets I now record to as below…)

      1. Advised/BOG – (which i’ve always done. So you’re incorrect on that. But yes – given the changes now I do need to consider that, and get my head around who is bog and when – many of mine are/have been posted post-non bog times with bookies X, but I do need to assess that)

      2. Advised/non bog – (Simply the advised price which is always x3 main bookies- or what I declare to be the advised price if it shortens within 20/30 mins after I post) If the SP is bigger it’s recorded to advised only, so non bog.

      3. BFSP

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      You’re tips are mainly after 10 are they not, when everyone is BOG? I dont’ see a problem with dec at BOG price, But I suppose the argument is that many have BOG removed etc.

      I’ve no issues long term – BOG may not be as profitable, but it shouldn’t make a massive difference long term if you’ve a decent ‘value’ approach, as in theory you should be landing on more horses that shorten etc.
      Albeit today i’m grateful for those extra 4 points! 🙂

      I don’t tend to get flak in these parts, but am happy to don the tin hat 🙂

      Certainly BOG probably should now be seen as a bonus, and the correct assessment should be on advised / BFSP (of which my daily tips this year are comparable)

      Josh

  8. I backed sir hector to win and everkyllachy ew (not the fc unfortunstely) and Unibet paid out accordingly but after a steward enquiry the result was reversed but they have not altered my winnings? Do they, or because they already settled before the enquiry was resolved, do they leave it as it was?
    Anybody know?
    Danny

    1. Hmm, many bookies, and they may be one, just pay first past the post I think, as a sign of goodwill. If you’d placed it on the exchanges it would be taken away from you etc for obvious reasons. They should have updated by now, so I suspect it’s yours!

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