Members Daily Post: 01/12/19 (complete)

Tip x1 + write up

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/139, 44p +16.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.05 Fairyhouse

GLORIOUS GALWAY – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/WH/BV) UP8s (4th) ran well for a long way, missing out 6 jumps didn’t help him, but a pos for those in front, and he hasn’t got home – decent run, but outstayed by 3 in front. No excuse and beat 22L come line, exciting until around 3 out. 

that’s all for today, 09.00, write up…

I’m hoping this one may get away on the front end here – or in any case be right up there. With any luck he can dictate. He’s lightly raced and arrives fit and in form. He ran well at Cork LTO over 28f in soft, his jockey possibly doing a bit too much on the front. The Gatechecker beat him that day, with a 12lb swing which may help – and in any case that one is usually held up, and can lose his race before the start apparently – everything has to go right in the prelims with him, which it may do again. The selection shapes as if he will just keep galloping – he wasn’t stopping LTO and there was a gap back to De Bromhead’s who lines up again. With his light weight and the 3lb claim helping with being wrong at the weights, his running style, his ‘more to come profile’ and more proven stamina than most in here, I thought he was worth a go at 12s, and it looked a few points too big. Hopefully he’s over that run (he should be 28 days later) and can put his best foot forward. If he could be a few lengths up approaching 2 out, he should just keep going. Light/bottom weights do well enough in this race, as do 3lb claimers and Adam Short has plenty of experience, and has placed over this CD before. Fingers crossed for a big run.

The other two interesting ones were Wrong Direction – he’s hard to get a handle on as it’s his first run under rules (outside of hunter chases) and first run beyond 3m. He also had a hard enough race on return 14 days ago I thought. However he probably was going to beat the selection in one of those hunter chases, but does have a bit more to prove in these conditions. He will try and track the pace though and could run a big race.

Ah Littleluck – he shapes like a soft ground stayer and I think he may enjoy these conditions – however he just has a few too many non-completes over fences for me to dive in at 8s. That felt about right, given he can hit one, and he does have to prove he stays. IF he jumps, I don’t think he will be too far away. I hope Enright may be happy to track the selection, rather than go hard and try and take him on – over this trip, I don’t think he will be ultra aggressive.

Of the rest…Ask Susan is short enough given she’s unproven over the trip, and in this ground-  i’m not sure she looks a soft ground slogger but is unexposed in such conditions, and it is Willie Mullins. But that price seems short.

I couldn’t really have the rest. If the Gatechecker turns up in the same form as LTO he’d go close but you’re tossing a coin as to whether he runs his race it seems – LTO was the time to roll that dice, at 25s+ or so, which I failed to do.

General Principle – he won the Irish Nat for us on here in 2018 at 33s, and clearly he has the back-form to compete. Fitness is a question, he lost his way at times last year, and his jumping was questionable. The fact Elliot tries blinkers on his return may suggest he’s ready, or they are just rolling the dice- there’s a chance Jack Kennedy goes ultra aggressive in the blinkers- I hope he does’t but he may do. Clearly he gallops and stays at his best but I was happy to leave this particular 10 year old. Out Sam has the odd question now and isn’t getting any younger – I think in soft there’s a slight stamina question also, but he could run a big race. I’ve gone for younger, hopefully more progressive legs on this occasion.

Killer Miller has too many questions given his profile for me – but he is lightly raced for his age, is unexposed over marathon trips and shaped LTO as if worth a go. But he’s clearly been fragile and hard to get a handle on. Meade has won the race before thought but at 8s, given he’s usually held up, I was happy to leave at what was 8s, albeit he’s drifting a bit now.

I can’t see why Aherlow will finish ahead of mine based on LTO, if he runs his race, at the same price.

Pace wise…

Well I hope mine gets an easy lead, or does so within a few fences- they may not be so aggressive as LTO but I hope he takes it up at some point, can dictate, stretch them, and put the rest under pressure. Ah Littleluck and Wrong Direction may be up there, and GP in 1st blinkers may have a change of tactics, if he’s quick enough.

 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/57,22p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

None, both UK Jumps meetings abandoned

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Analysing A Staying Chase: READ HERE>>>

Ratings Pointers Analysis: READ HERE>>>

(will be updated with Geegeez Speed analysis early next week)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. With an awful card at Carlisle i’ve concentrated on what looks a good days racing at Fairyhouse.
    1-00. Envoi Allen could well walk this but i’ve been tempted to have a ew punt on Willie Mullins Foveros @ 20-1, he takes a massive step up in class but so do a few of the others and with form reading 1121 the latest over 2m 5f in soft but he has won a very good novice hurdle over 2m back in May where he convincingly beat yesterdays winner Brawler by 15l.
    1-30. Samcro would be my choice but i think i’ll leave this alone and just enjoy watching what looks a cracking contest.
    2-05. I’m torn between The Gatechecker 7-1 and General Principle 12-1 and will probably have an ew interest in both.
    2-40. Another cracking contest with the top 4 in the market all holding chances but i’ve had a couple of quid on Davids Charm @20’s just in case he bounces back after his poor run on the flat lto.
    3-10. Nothing stands out but as i was watching ELO in concert earlier i’ve had a small ew on Mr Blue Sky @22-1 🙂

  2. just two today, live by the sword etc… yesterday was ok, we got a run for our money, but, frustrating when you see jockeys not sticking to the script, BORICE was a bit of a mystery, maybe he doesn`t like going left handed, big fields he`s ok with, maybe it`s because he wasn`t up with the pace? who knows, we move on anyways…
    14:05
    GENERAL PRINCIPLE 1pt win 11/1 gen
    Josh I know loves this horse (mainly for his 33/1 victory here in 2018), and his record at Fairyhouse is second to none, take out the pulled up lto and he does half decent when fresh, for a staying chaser he doesn`t have many starts, he has mileage though and I think that the going may be the key to this one, certainly if it`s not on his beloved soft to heavy going, he doesn`t want to know. 4 of his 5 wins have been in soft or heavier and on right handed tracks, so, if the little bit of rain forecast for early this morning gets in the ground, we have GP`s favourite going…
    KILLER MILLER 1pt win 8/1 gen
    Mr Meade has won this before and had a couple of placed efforts, so, he knows how to get one ready for this. Another horse that hasn`t really been seen on a course to full extent, to that end his runs have been protracted and you can`t really read the form thoroughly, but, like i said this may be the fly in the ointment and at 8/9 to 1 does represent value.

    As always, good luck with whatever you select today and hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.

      1. well done- maybe a case of less is more, although only you’ll know how much work went into yesterday vs that race say – and said approach isn’t helping me much at the moment –
        You always deserve luck in this game though, and you seem to get it over there! 🙂 – 6 omitted jumps and the error at the last by leader has helped you there, and more emphasis on stamina. But you’ve read him well.

  3. COLINS BETS
    now back to the Original bets and even with the terrible conditions of October managed a profit of + 3.083 points at level stakes win only, would probably have been better firgures if the incompetent BHA had got their act together and put on more AW racing has they have done in the past.
    How their is no racing on Sunday is amazing when the weather forecasts are far more advanced and reliable, and the shower(forgive the pun) at BHA should hang their heads in shame or better still P45s should be put in place.
    Colin.

  4. TIP TOP
    November made a profit of + 5.625 cursing myself for missed a 14/1 did not see it till it had won, so the figures woul have looked very good, so all in all this old method is looking good for the future.
    OCT + 9.77
    NOV + 5.625
    Overall not to bad for the terrible conditions of Oct/Nov with the constant rain and heavy going, here in Sheffield it has been the worst rainfall in autumn since records began in 1883, and believe that includes South Yorkshire.
    15.395 or £1,539.50 to £100 bets does not appear to sound very good over 2 months and what ammount of money in the bank would you need for that return? and over the past 2 months not many on here have been recording their returns so take it most are finding it difficult to find winners and make a profit.
    Day off today so frosty weak sunshine so more walking target in November 200 miles totally smashed finished on 324.2 miles, thank you NHS for the new hip now 10 months ago.
    Colin.

  5. for those that have missed it Bet Victor are changing BOG availability from 12-00 midnight to 9-00 am as from tomorrow.

    1. Yep good spot. WH changing to 10am also I think, poss from 8 as is now? Could well be Bet365 only as evening before.

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