Members Daily Post: 30/11/19 (complete:10.32)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/138, 44p +17.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.00 Newbury

#1 BORICE – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/BV) 14/1 (gen) (19.5 BFX) UP

#2 ROBINSFIRTH – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen) (34.00 BFX) UP

as of 08.55, that’s all for today, write ups at bottom of post…

 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/57,22p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Bangor

12.45 – Zolfo (HcCh) w1 H1 I1 15/8 WON

1.20 –

Head To The Stars (all Hc’s) H3 G3 11/2  2nd

Snuff Box (HcCh) I3 6/1

Fortified Bay (HcCh) 12/1

3.05 – Devito’sredrobin (HcH) G3 7/1 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Newbury

1.15 –

Jerrysback (micro runs) H1 I1 7/1

Sametegal (HcCh)15/2

Westend Story (m TJC) G3 11/2 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Molineaux (HcCh,m runs) 8/1

1.50 –

Dan McGrue (m dist) H3 G3 6/1 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Downtown Getaway (m hcdeb) w2 9/2

The Cashel Man (m hcdeb) w1 7/1 WON 11/1 

Nordic Combined (m class) I3 14/1

2.25 –

Elusive Belle (m hcdeb) w1 4/1 3rd

Epatante (m hcdeb) w2 H3 4/1 WON 4/1 

Crooks Peak (m’s TJC,dist and age) 9/1

3.00 –

Elegant Escape (HcCh,m runs) 11/1

Yala Enki (HcCh) 28/1

Robinsfirth (HcCh) w1 H3 25/1 S2A UP

OK Corral (m hcdeb) w2 8/1 UP

Mister Malarkey (HcCh,m runs) 8/1

West Approach (HcCh,m runs) w1 H3 I3 G3 10/1 S1 S4 UR

3.40 –

No Comment (m TJC and dist) G3 12/1 S1 UP

Magic Saint (HcCh) H3 G3 10/3 WON 4/1 

 

Newcastle……..None

*

TTP Chase Micros

12.20 Newc – Whats The Scoop (7/1<) / Up Helly As King H3 G3 (9/1<) 4/1

1.30 Newc – Hill Sixteen (7/1<) 9/2

3.20 Newc – Lake View Lad (9/1<) H1 5/1 

3.40 Newb – Magic Saint H3 G3 10/3 WON 4/1 

 

*

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

November Trainers

12.40 Newb – Reserve Tank (12/1<) 4/9

12.55 Newc – Imperial Alcazar 6/4

3.00 Newb – Mister Malarkey (12/1<) 8/1

 

Autumn Trainers 

V Williams

1.2- Bang – Snuff Box 6/1

C Longsdon

3.40 Newb – Western Miller (12/1<) 33/1

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers 

1.30 Newc- Murphys Law (11/1<) 8/1

1.15 Newb – Westend Story (14/1<) 11/2

3.40 Newb – No Comment (14/1<) 12/1

Long Lay-Off Trainers

1.15 Newb – Sametegal 15/2

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

3.00 Newb – Elegant Escape 11/1

1.15 Newb – Joueur Bresilien (17/2< guide) 22/1

3.00 Newb – Robinsfirth (17/2< guide) 25/1

3.00 Newb – Some Chaos (25/1<) 66/1

*

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

3.00 Newb – Borice 14/1 / On The Blind Side 10/1

3.20 Newc – Kilfilum Cross 3/1

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Analysing A Staying Chase: READ HERE>>>

Ratings Pointers Analysis: READ HERE>>>

(will be updated with Geegeez Speed analysis early next week)

*

Newbury Day 2 Trainer Pointers

Report HERE>>>

1.15 – Samategal / Divine Spear (8/1<) / Molineux (12/1<)

1.50 – Soul Emotion (8/1<) / Downtown Getaway (8/1<) / The Cashel Man (8/1<)

2.25 – Epatante / French Crusader (8/1<) / Elusive Belle

3.00 – Beware the Bear (8/1<) / Brave Eagle (8/1<) / Ok Corral / West Approach (12/1<) / Mister Malarkey (12/1<) / Elegant Escape (12/1<)

3.40 – Magic Saint / Whatswrongwithyou (8/1<)

*

3.00 Newbury – Hennessy

Trainers (to have won race/runners)

  • Ok Corral / On The Blind Side / Beware The Bear / Brave Eagle
  • Cabaret Queen / Yorkhill
  • Mister Malarkey / Elegant Escape/ West Approach / Robinsfirth
  • Dingo Dollar
  • Yala Enki
  • Daklondike
  • Commodore

Stats/Trends Pointers

The three 15/15 stats leave 15/156, 40p…

Ok Corral / Mister Malarkey / On The Blind Side / De Rasher Counter / Two Taffs/ Borice / Brave Eagle/ Commodore / Shantou Village

 

The x3 13/15 stats, (ignoring odds) combined with those above leave… 10/54, 18p…

On The Blind Side / Borice

 

HRB Ratings Top 6

  • H1 : Borice
  • H2: West Approach
  • H3: Robinsfirth
  • H4: Brave Eagle
  • H5: Elegant Escape
  • H6: Cabaret Queen

*

1.15 Newbury

Trainers (to have won race/runners)

  • Westend Story / Jerrysback
  • Sametegal
  • As You Like
  • Rocks Treasure
  • Divine Spear
  • Minella For Me

HRB Ratings Top 9

  • H1: Jerrysback
  • H2: As You like
  • H3: Highway One O One
  • H4: Larry
  • H5: Bennys King
  • H6: Drumcliff
  • H7: Rocks Treasure
  • H8: Wilde Blue Yonder
  • H9: Minella For Me

 

3.20 Newcastle

Trainers (to have won race/runners)

  • Lake View Lad
  • Takingrisks

Stats/Trends Pointers

The x3 15/15 stats leave 15/84 runners, 30p…

Lake View Lad / Top Ville Ben / Captain Redbeard / Captain Chaos

HRB Ratings Top 6

  • H1 : Lake View Lad
  • H2: Jonniesofa
  • H3: Kilfilum Cross
  • H4: Top Ville Ben
  • H5: Takingrisks
  • H6: Captain Redbeard

 

*

The Hennessy write ups…

Borice – 16s looked worth a go given there could be more to come from him for Gordon Elliot and this has clearly been the plan. The Galway Plate was a decent edition this year I thought and he beat the right horses. He was doing all his best work late and given some of his French form, this step up in trip looks within range – and maybe the reason for improvement. He jumped and travelled well that day and if Daryl can track the pace/hold a position, he should be in there pitching turning for home. I don’t think this ground is too bad- it looked to be riding Good to Soft yesterday (I think the times back that up) so it certainly won’t be a slog – some tactical speed could be important and he seems to have that, as opposed to wanting a dour stayer – but I could have that wrong. There’s not many better than Elliot to ready one for a big handicap chase and he hits plenty of my stats pointers for the race.

Robinsfiirth – somewhat of a poke at 25s but I thought he could be a lively outsider given he will be here to run the race of his life – and that could be good enough, given the depth to some of his form. He’s clearly had problems and they can’t run him too many times. His owners are very anti running him in any National it seems and this has been the plan since the end of last season. Fitness won’t be a problem and Tizzard reports that he’s had two race-course away days/gallops. Sean won on him LTO and keeps the ride here- he generally jumps/travels well, responds for pressure and seemingly has a change of gears. There’s a niggle whether this may happen too quickly for him but he’s a 25s shot. He shows up well in the HRB ratings, and even better in Inform – indeed his figure LTO was a career best, and the best in this race (exc Irish runs which isn’t covered/unknown). In any case, that gave me some further hope that he could out-run these odds. If he’s holding a position/isn’t far off the pace turning in, we could have some fun. Tizzard is in form and he seemingly now targets this race with a vengeance.

Of the rest…

Well… it does have an open feel and you can make a case for a few, as if often the way in these big handicaps.

On The Blind Side…  he was in my initial top 2 picks and it would be typical for him to bolt up – something just niggled at me, mainly on the inexperience front, and his inconsistency. I think he is well handicapped off 149 and if he jumps/holds a position, he shapes as if he will stay/could relish it. He does have to prove it LH also but I think he should be ok – there’s a chance he just dislikes Cheltenham/had two bad experiences there. He was an eye-catcher LTO as Nico kept him wide, ‘allowed’ him to lose his position, drifted behind horses, back out wide and stayed on again – albeit past tiring horses. He will come on for that. On this ground/possible pace/field size, I did have a niggle about whether he could hold his pitch, in the context he was 10s or so, and it’s only his 5th chase run. This will be more frenetic than the Ascot race I think. But he has an unexposed profile and I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver. He does have a big handicap in his this season, I just hope it’s not this one. I got lured in by two at bigger prices. 

I could live with the rest winning really, on my assessment.

Maybe it’s as simple as West Approach but he needs more than the last twice, is usually ridden cold (or has been) and has questions in a big big field – he obviously needs delivering late/can’t be in front for ages, but he’s genuine. He’s fit, in form, and did win well enough LTO, but it wasn’t a strong race. He does have speed, and with luck in running, shouldn’t be far away. He could still be well handicapped. He’d be a stats buster against some of my pointers and that, along with his running style, was enough to put me off at what was 10s or so, but he’s been well supported.

Cabaret Queen is up 20lb and nothing has come out of that race since- it looked visually impressive but needs more for me – I could leave at 8s but Willie may just have transformed her. The Skelton’s will be scratching their heads. I can’t have Dingo Dollar who’s run in this before but if the visor works may go closer. OK Corral is very weak which will worry his supporters – he’s unexposed, and there should be so much more to come. He was short for me given his inexperience for a test like this/this pace, but he should have a decent season, maybe starting today. But a game of price, and those mentioned just were not quite big enough for me – although the top of the market does have a good record in this race.

I thought this may happen too quick for Elegant Escape in this ground, and he can hit one – he’s obviously open to attack from better handicapped horses, of which there are enough interesting ones I thought. Were this a proper soft/heavy ground race i’d be more interested. Mister Malarkey was just a bit too poor for me on his return and he gets CP now. He’s always shaped as if he’s got some sort of staying pot in him – the odd question for me, but if he runs well here he may be worth a go at The Welsh National or something.

Regal Encore may run into a place again at a big price, if he’s in the mood. The rest had more questions to answer to me, esp on Good to Soft for a few of them, but like I said it’s got an open enough feel about it I thought where you could make some sort of case for plenty.

*

That’s all for today. Nothing else in the 2m7f+ chases jumped out at me.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Two to take on the favourite Magic Saint with tomorrow in the 15:40 at Newbury for me are Theo and Double Ws.
    So the reasoning is a bit weird, well the stats are anyway!
    Sometimes you gotta take an odd approach with trends, so I did. Mainly because they mowed the field down quickly and were pretty solid. Whether they are relevant or useful stats is another thing really.
    Max distance ran between 2m4f & 3m0.5f
    Max distance won between 2m & 2m4f
    between 3 & 11 runs in last year
    trainer win% last 14 days not between 0% & 10%
    No jockey claim
    An unorthodox approach granted but it did cut the field down and there are bits of logic to be applied to them in my mind. The main reason for me looking at this race is because of Double Ws, I look out for him and wanted to see if he had a chance, so now he does!! Magic Saint and Solar Impulse hit the stats too but I dropped MS for lack of value and SI because of the ground.
    I’ll have fun cheering them on any way, hopefully some place money at least!

    handbag 29/11/19 5:17 PM Reply


  • Nb 3.00 – Brave Eagle e/w @ 40 plenty of 6 plcs
    Not had a run over fences on soft but has won over sticks in testing ground albeit at shorter distance. James has had plenty of rides so should be able to coax the best out.
    Having a saver on West Approach @ 10′ s just in case.

    Titus 29/11/19 6:45 PM Reply


  • Just to make you aware.
    the 1:15NB
    Jerry’s back, As you like and Drumcliff are all owned by J P McManus.
    He’s running them in the colours of his very good friend, Peter O’Sullevan, who the race is named after. Nice touch I think.
    and incidently. He won it last year with Kapcorse 12/1.

    compounddave 29/11/19 7:41 PM Reply


    • Doing my best to make a decent case for Drumcliffe here

      Ryan Mercer 29/11/19 8:42 PM Reply


  • 13:15 Newbury
    MOLINEAUX 1pt win 14/1 gen
    LARRY 1pt win 14/1 gen
    14:25 Newbury
    ANTUNES 1pt win 9/1 gen
    CROOKS PEAK 1pt win 14/1 lads / 12/1 gen
    15:00 Newbury
    ON THE BLIND SIDE 1pt win 11/1 gen
    WEST APPROACH 1pt win 11/1 gen
    BORICE 1pt win 16/1 hills 14/1 gen
    15:20 Newcastle
    CAPTAIN CHAOS 1pt win 13/2 gen
    CAPTAIN REDBEARD 1pt win 15/2 gen

    write ups in morning.

    Stewart 29/11/19 8:01 PM Reply


    • After yesterday I thought maybe the luck had turned, only to see Shambura Shujaa fade like a light as they turned in, they say football is a funny old game, sure that analogy can be used with racing also, so, we move onto today and boy did some of these give me a headache… I love the NH game, but, when you have so many races t study in such a short period of time it becomes exhausting. I will try and do myself justice with these.
      MOLINEAUX
      Well, you have to side with Robbie Power at the moment, he is riding for fun and in these long distance races it seems he is just able to switch horses off a little bit better than some of the young uns, it`s amazing the amount of horses that do respond to certain jockeys, Frodon and Bryony, Davy Russell and Tiger Roll that are two that spring to mind in that category.Anyways it is also about the horse and this one has been knocking on the door a few times, his lto run at Newbury is where he didn`t fire at all and i can see why the bookies have taken a dislike to him, but, he always needs his first run, so, maybe that was the case, he will have to be at his best though!! Value at the odds.
      LARRY
      Baby of the pack here and his runs at Newbury are encouraging and his 2nd in the race in March here should be good enough to have him in the mix. Another who will come on for that run and it should pay to side with the youngster against the older brigade here. Value at 10/1.
      ANTUNES
      Well, have to stick with the Skeltons after the hard work Harry put into Old Grangewood yesterday, heaven knows how he he got the horse up, which means they are firing again and this is quite a good purse for this one, value at 9/1 i felt in this as trainer states that there will be no excuses today.
      CROOKS PEAK
      Just felt this one to be a little over priced at double figures, his race LTO was quite tough and he may have needed that, so, this flatter track will suit and we should see a different animal this afternoon, value at 10/ 11 to 1.
      ON THE BLIND SIDE
      Nicky Henderson does not go into these races without having a good look at them beforehand and to me he has come here with a few, with the intention of stealing this pot, just hope like the retained stable jockey I have picked the right one, thought Beware the bear may need the run, Brave Eagle is a summer horse and OK Corral i felt was a) too short in the market and b) yes he has low mileage, but, this short for a horse maybe a little quirky, for me i can leave him, so, onto OTBS , his lto , he seemed to run in snatches and ran really wide at the bend at Ascot, which to me suggests he is a left handed track specialist, plus, he needs a galloping track to show his merit. Yes I know he has won RH, but, to my eyes he does better Left handed and there nay be more to come from this exciting second season chaser…
      WEST APPROACH
      Puppy had the pick of the Tizzard horses also and I was really close to picking Elegant Escape, who will stay on after most of these are beat. This one though i thought was the top pick, he has progressed race on race this season and this is the top prize at the moment i feel for him, with Puppy on board he will again switch him off and we shall see, if, like Puppy says “he really does have some gears”, on the run in home, expect him to be like Old Grangewood yesterday…
      BORICE
      This has been the target since the Galway Plate and it seems odd that Mr Elliott only sends one here, he must really think he has a shot with this one, he did beat some grand horses in that Galway plate and the long run in will help with his turn of foot, we are in for a top class race here and if Borice is up with the pace he could see them all off, my only danger… the Mullins horse, but, i feel he will need softer ground, there to be shot at I felt.
      CAPTAIN CHAOS
      2nd in this race last year, but, with a swing in the weights this time he should go one better, yes LVL is a great horse round Newcastle, but, with only having a 2 3/4 length victory last time they met at Newcastle I feel Cpt Chaos will prevail at decent odds too.
      CAPTAIN REDBEARD
      He`s probably had his best days, but, always runs a really good, honest race, so, at the price and the fact he has never run at Newcastle in his illustrious career, got me thinking, well, he likes flat, galloping tracks, so, maybe it`s the obvious choice for another track to tick off for him, he may just surprise.

      As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today.
      My thoughts are my own and I do expect to get shot down with a few of these, they are merely my musings and how I look at a race, plus the fact I`ve spent a lot of time looking at the above races. I`m off for a brew now and let`s see how they fare, all the best..

      Stewart 30/11/19 8:07 AM Reply


      • Thanks for taking the considerable time to do this Stewart. That is what this site is all about! Great stuff!

        dougandnicky 30/11/19 8:55 AM Reply


      • Well you haven’t held back today! 🙂 Best of luck as always, you’ve certainly got the value on many of those.

        Josh 30/11/19 10:39 AM Reply


      • Ah well, it was entertaining nonetheless, I read them almost right, just the horses didn`t turn up on the day… On the Blind side i was most disappointed with, all the others I can live with.

        Stewart 30/11/19 3:32 PM Reply


  • AW T/T

    It was a poor day for the AW T/T Friday.

    No qualifiers for Sat.

    4th Nov to 30th Nov
    35bets 3wins Profit bfsp 33.71 ROI 96.31

    Winners bfsp 18, 39, 15.71. There were 8 placed horses.
    Hopefully, Dec will be better.

    One of our previous runners Polybius which ran at Chelmsford LTO on the 21st won today at Kempton 20/1. Dropped in class 2 to 3.
    There hasn’t been any pattern to the winners except 2/3 have been at Southwell.
    1Hcp at Dundalk. 1 Dist and 1 T/J both at Southwell.

    Good Luck for Dec.

    Mike

    mickeydee 29/11/19 10:25 PM Reply


  • Nothing stands out today so i went back over the Newbury card just looking for anything that seemed overpriced . these are not tips just those i thought might outrun their odds so have had £1 ew singles and a couple of 5p ew L15 for fun.
    1-15. Cap Du Nord 50-1, Molineaux was last night @14’s but now into 7’s
    1-50. Limited Reserve 40-1
    2-25. Crooks Peak 9-1
    3-00. Robinsfirth 25-1, Brave Eagle 40-1, Beware The Bear 50-1
    3-40. No Comment 14-1 when i backed it but looks like it’s coming in.

    martin whittle 30/11/19 8:59 AM Reply


  • TIP TOP
    2.15 Lingfield Kinglami 5/1
    2.50 Lingfield Mont Kiara 9/1
    6.20 Wolverhampton Avenue Of Stars 10/1
    Colin

    cleafe 30/11/19 10:01 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    1.05 Lingfield Fiery Breath 10/3
    Colin

    cleafe 30/11/19 10:04 AM Reply


  • Josh, not playing the Hennessy each way with 6 places all over the place? tut tut 🙂

    handbag 30/11/19 10:42 AM Reply


    • ha, nope, i’ll just die on my sword as they rattle home 2nd and 3rd! You know me- I don’t want to go 1 point EW (4 on race) and I don’t wish to go 1/2 EW – maybe when there’s a 1/5,6p or even 5 I should be pondering that but i’ve never had an EW mind, so it is what it is. Makes the losing runs far more painful but the profit/ROI is better for it long term – but that is one area for me to ponder at some point – i know the maths makes sense when such terms available and I’ know what will happen now – still, people can bet as they wish and many no doubt do EW!

      Josh 30/11/19 11:12 AM Reply


  • We should know by now that Josh loves these close finishes with one hand half way down his throat and his Opus Dei whip in the other.One of these long shots will drop in soon and he wont have 10 points or so left behind

    gearoid180468 30/11/19 11:09 AM Reply


    • I’m still haunted by the 1/2 point win on 2018s AB winner at Festival, 50s – and promised myself never again- certainly backing mine EW consistently isn’t the way to go – but maybe I do need to ponder when to go 1 point EW- not that i’ve ever been great at judging such things.

      Josh 30/11/19 11:24 AM Reply


  • A couple of horses caught my eye on the evenings aw

    5.50 Foreshore 12/1

    Quick turn out after running at Southwell.Was well supported in market that day so maybe more was expected.Neither lee or curtiss are up which doesn’t inspire confidence but there has been a little market support this morning.He may be just having a nice day out to give him some experience.

    7.20 Al Hayette 20/1

    Bit of a dark horse here.Has won 2 valuable races in Meydan as a 2/3yo,highly tried after and found wanting.Her run after a break would reinforce view that she has regressed but if she retained a little of her ability a 5k race should be winnable.Trainer has good record here with his 3yo

    gearoid180468 30/11/19 12:19 PM Reply


  • Henderson is having a fine day at Newbury, I wonder if it’s going to get better? A couple of small e/w bets on Beware The Bear 50/1 and Brave Eagle 40/1 don’t look like the worst bets ever with 6 places up for grabs.

    handbag 30/11/19 2:46 PM Reply


Post A Reply