Members Daily Post: 28/11/19 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/136, 44p +19.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None. No races of interest. Having looked there are around 300 handicap chases a year (2m7f+, C4+) and 11 or so in Ireland (C1 / 2m7f+). Plenty to get stuck into over time, and i’ll be grafting hard to try and improve the current state of affairs.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/57,22p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ffos Las

2.40 – Timassini (HcH) H3 I3 8/1 

3.10 – General Malarkey (micro going) 16/1 S2A

 

Taunton

2.50 –

Deadline Diva (m runs) 12/1 

Bang On (m TJC) H3 I1 G3 7/1 S4 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP)

3.20 – Seeanythingyoulike (m TJC) L I3 11/2 

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TTP Chase Micro

3.10 FL – General Malarkey (6/1<) 16/1 

3.20 Taunt – Seeanythingyoulike (any odds) L I3 11/2 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

November Trainers 

12.35 Taunt – Butterwick Brook (12/1<)  25/1 

1.10 Taunt – Who Shot Jr (12/1<) 50/1 

2.15 Taunt – Battle of Ideas (12/1<) 5/1 

3.50 Taunt – Dan Gun (12/1<) 9/4 

 

Long Lay Off Chase Trainers 

2.15 Taunt – Benechenko 11/2 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

2.15 Taunt – Dentley De Mee 9/2  / Forgot To Ask 14/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW!

I will expand the following into a blog post soon, with some further thoughts esp on chases, but for now there’s a template i’ve cobbled together to help focus my ‘staying chase tipping mind’ and also a look at the ratings pointers used in section 2 (HRB/Inform) and how they perform in handicaps more generally. There may be elements of both that help your own punting >>> 

  1. Analysing A Staying Chase: READ HERE>>>
  2. Ratings Pointers Analysis: READ HERE>>> 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • AW T/T
    A nice 33/1 (BOG) winner sp14/1 bfsp 15.71. Speed dating. It also had a place 3/1 into 13/8. P/L update at the weekend.
    4 runners for Thursday.

    1.55 L Sky Defender…M Johnston T/J…8/1
    2.25 L Presence Process…P Phelan Dist..14/1 4p WH
    4.30 C Constanzia…J Osbourne Class…33/1
    6.30 C The Gill Brothers…S Williams Dist…7/2

    Mike

    mickeydee 27/11/19 8:07 PM Reply


  • Sorry if I am being particularly thick here but based upon your ratings pointers analysis above Josh, am I understanding that the top 3 rated by HRB in any 16 plus runner hcap hurdle has a one in three strike rate ? Or, have I missed something fundamental?

    westy2 28/11/19 8:03 AM Reply


    • yes that’s correct – but of course you’re looking at 3 horses there, the top rated, 2nd top and 3rd top rated – but yes according to HRBs ratings analysis, in handicap hurdles their top 3 rated horses combine to win 32% of 16+ runner handicap hurdles.

      Remember – if you see a H3 above – there will be two other rated horses in said race within HRB – but for example, with handicap hurdles , 8-12 runners – if you see a H3 qualifier above in section 2 in such a race – i thought it useful to know that this qual is one of three horses that combined have a 48% win SR – a good ‘way in’ and may help with shortlisting on a day, for example.

      Is that clear or have I made it more confusing? (as I can do at times!)

      Josh

      Josh 28/11/19 8:18 AM Reply


      • Thanks for the reply Josh, so, my understanding is correct. That’s impressive and surely based upon likely prices in those type of races a very strong ‘way in’ is it not ?

        westy2 28/11/19 8:32 AM Reply


        • Yep I would say it’s a good ‘way in’ for sure- I mean the HRB ratings are pretty solid really and arguably any of the red H1 H3 quals above could be deemed a decent ‘shortlist’ for further analysis. I1s ok, esp 12< .

          Josh 28/11/19 8:50 AM Reply


          • Hi Josh

            What timeline is covered on HRB figures do you know?

            Also there an option to breakdown GGZ ratings by rank in the query tool. You can then filter from there for no of runners etc.
            Not sure if you were aware of this?

            Joe Healy 28/11/19 11:06 AM Reply


            • Hi Joe,

              Why did I not think of the query tool??? Doh.

              I’d best add to that table soon enough! No idea why that didn’t cross my mind/clearly wasn’t aware of it/didn’t think about it.

              HRB goes back for the previous 750 races under such conditions. Given their formula won’t change etc, I think it’s substantial enough to make an assessment, certainly for ‘way in’ /added info’ purposes.

              Best
              Josh

              Josh 28/11/19 11:37 AM Reply


  • I usually shy away from hcap hurdles but may have to review that.

    westy2 28/11/19 8:33 AM Reply


  • TIP TOP
    12.45 Lingfield Affluence 6/1
    2.25 Lingfield Red Gunner 11/4
    2.05 F/L Air Horse One 15/8
    3.20 Taunton Gme Line 11/2
    7.00 Chelmsford Spirit Of Angel 15/8
    Nice winner yesterday at 4/1
    Nov profit + 2.75 so hopefuly can build on today
    Colin

    cleafe 28/11/19 10:14 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS now ORIGINAL BETS
    1.20 Lingfield Colonel Whitebread 15/8
    2.25 Lingfield Red Gunner 11/4
    2.50 Taunton Highway To Success 5/2
    Since going back to Original method this month November is + 8.083 in profit and anyone who have access to BOG would have more profit for SP was 6/1 againsted adviced price of 7/2.
    Colin

    cleafe 28/11/19 10:23 AM Reply


    • Good results yesterday Colin. I was away so only saw it when I got home.
      Hugh

      alpha2 28/11/19 1:49 PM Reply


      • Hugh, thanks for the comment sorry you missed them, must admit now very positive going back to the Original method and kicking myself for trying to find the big priced winners by tweaking the method only to find that it did not work over a long period, so looking foward to December and the AW and see if it is successful again over the next 3 months and beyond.
        Colin

        cleafe 28/11/19 2:11 PM Reply


  • Today’s ‘Trends Thursday’ post is here>>> inc x3 trainer pointers for the Hennessy Meeting >>>

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2019/11/28/trends-thursday-hennessy-weekend/

    Josh 28/11/19 10:54 AM Reply


  • pushed for time so just a quickie, nothing to have a real go at but these might be worth a second look.
    Thurles
    3-05. Best Not Argue 50-1 £1 ew
    3-35. The Grey Guy 28-1 £1.5 ew
    Taunton
    2-50. Poucor 8-1 £2 ew
    3-20. Game Line 11-2 £2 ew
    Ffos Las
    2-40. Snipettydoodah 8-1 £2 ew
    3-10. Steel Native 7-2 £4 win

    martin whittle 28/11/19 12:09 PM Reply


  • Nov Trainers. Who Shot JR. Cut off price <12/1. Was 50/1 last night. Anyone else not do it? Aaaaarrgh!!!!!!

    Ken McKenzie 28/11/19 1:26 PM Reply


    • I share your pain Ken, ditto.

      Mark Curtis 28/11/19 3:16 PM Reply


    • It sounds like Who shot Ken Lol.

      mickeydee 28/11/19 5:47 PM Reply


    • Urgh, I’ll have to check the micro but obv there will be a reason why it was an odds cap and not even a ‘guide’. But that is painful if you were following them systematically. Apols.

      Josh 28/11/19 5:54 PM Reply


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