Micro Monday: 25/11/19

 

After siding with a Joseph O’Brien horse ahead of a Henry De Bromhead horse in a staying chase, when deliberating between Tower Bridge and Chris’s Dream in the Troytown, I thought i’d best do some digging to avoid making similar mistakes again.

I’ve just focused on Class 1 Handicap Chases with a few angles of interest… as always with such angles the odds caps should only ever be a guide but within each angle with an odds guide, there’s yet to be a winner above this starting price in the period >>>

 

Henry De Bromhead

  • Handicap / Chase
  • 3m > 3m 5.5f
  • Class 1
  • 2016>
  • 16/1 < SP

 

Of course these are small enough numbers, but useful to know especially as the yard keeps going from strength to strength and it may be no surprise 2019 has been his best year of the last four.

In fact if you looked at all his handicap chasers / 24>25f only  / 16/1> SP you get…

37 bets/ 9 wins / 19p / 24% sr / +60 SP / +78 BFSP / AE 2.17 

(including all those C1 winners above)

This is in sharp contrast to Joseph O’Brien who’s now 0/29,3p since the start of 2019 in C1 handicap chases, 3m>3m5.5f.  I’ve paid the price there for not doing my homework on him in such races, albeit he’ll no doubt put that right at some point, maybe it’s no surprise he’s more about ‘speed’.

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With that angle above in mind for Henry De Bromhead I thought i’d dive into to see what other trainers have done well in such conditions… it may come as no surprise that Colin Tizzard has had a good time of it in recent years…

 Coin Tizzard

  • Handicap /Chase
  • 3m > 3m 5.5f
  • Class 1
  • 2016>
  • 20/1 < SP

 

Switching attention slightly…

Gordon Elliot had a few runners in the Troytown, as always, given it’s his local track/big meeting but didn’t hit the board this time. Ravenhill definitely has a big handicap chase in him when it all clicks.

I haven’t really dived into his stats outside of the big Festivals/Meetings before but I landed on an angle of sorts, that may be a good guide…

 

Gordon Elliot

  • Handicap /Chase
  • 3m +
  • Class 1
  • HEAVY Ground (officially)
  • 2016>
  • 20/1 < SP (a few biggies on morning odds/backed into that range)

 

  • Do note that those 7 victories come from 13 races.

 

Kerry Lee

Using the same rules as Gordon Elliot (any odds) I thought i’d see what other trainers have done well in such conditions. There’s only one other trainer with more than one winner, Ms Kerry Lee…

10 bets / 3 wins / 4p / +32 BFSP 

Those three winners were in 2016 but she had Alfie Spinner go close last year, and has had a torrid time since. But there have been some green shoots in recent weeks and the win of Happy Diva shows they are going better and can still get the job done in decent handicap chases.

There have been 23 such handicaps chases in those conditions above (C1/3m+/Heavy) since the start of 2016.

Gordon Elliot and Kerry Lee have won 10 of them.

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Finally, to finish…

 

Robbie Power

Arguably there’s no-one riding better in the National Hunt game at the moment, certainly not at the elite level/the big chases (Harry Cobden may have something to say about that mind!)

  • Handicap / Chase
  • Class 1
  • 2016>
  • 16/1< SP

57 bets / 14 wins / 26p / 25% sr / +59 SP / +84 BFSP / AE 1.83 

  • If you just look at those in races restricted to 5yo+
    • 29 bets / 10 wins / 19p / +93 BFSP

 

Given the firepower at his disposal and some of his developing relationships (with for example the owner of the Troytown winner, along with Harrington / Tizzard) anything he rides in a C1 handicap chase is clearly worth some attention.

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Josh

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