Members Daily Post: 26/11/19 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/136, 44p +19.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

1.50 Sedge – 1 point win -SANDHURST LAD – 14/1 (bet365/WH) 12/1 (gen) PU, 16/1 – market told that story, when no money came, and he was never really travelling from flag fall/never got near the front.  A horse/run to sum up my woeful form at the moment.

As of 8.03 write up at bottom of the post. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/57,22p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Sedgefield

3.20 –

Millie The Minx (HcH) H3 I3 5/1 UP

Adelphi Prince (HcH) 16/1 S2A 3rd , 28/1 

 

Southwell………..None

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TTP Chase Angles

1.20 Sedge – Two Hoots (any odds)  H3 I1 6/1 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

November Trainers

3.30 South – Ask A Honey Bee (33/1<) 5/1 WON 5/1>9/2 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

2.50 Sedge – Smiths Cross L 11/2 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

1.50 Sedge – Billy Bronco (17/2< guide) 11/2 WON 11/2 

1.30 South – Hollow Park (25/1<) 14/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catcher 2019/20

2.50 Segde – Smiths Cross L 11/2 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

New Micro Monday Post HERE>>>

(some angles De Bromhead/Tizzard/Elliot/K Lee/R Power)

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1.50 Sedge – Sandhurst Lad…

I’ve no idea how this one is 12s/14s, the outsider of the field. If i’m right i’d expect him to shorten as to my eyes on all known form he should be half that price. If he doesn’t i’ll prepare for the worst. Formerly trained by Warren G this one is having his second start for the yard. He returned to action at Carlisle over a trip too short, ground probably too lively (in context of trip anyway) and no doubt needed it. Having watched that back he travelled well for a long way and jumped well – as he’s always done over fences- visibly outpaced/before tiring up the hill. He now rocks up over a more suitable trip at a track the yard do well at. Well, they took an age to get their first winner but are 1/9,4p with their chasers here, inc one on 14th Nov that hacked up.

The horse… well he should race prominently if they adopt the tactics of former connections. He jumps well and just gallops. When you think he’s stopped galloping, he gallops some more. He’s that mix you generally want in a staying chase (there’s no Perfect Candidate in this!) with enough chase experience but also open to more improvement I think, especially over 26f+. This mark looks fine.

His form… well for me he has the best form of any horse in this race and it’s the weakest staying chase he’s run in. Plenty of his hurdles form was ok, and staying on efforts in soft/heavy at the likes of Plumpton which give me no concerns as to the ground certainly in the context of his price. He hasn’t won on soft+ so that’s always a question, but i can’t look at that handicap hurdle form and conclude he doesn’t handle it, not at 14s.

But chasing was always going to be his game given his size. In Dec 18 he ran ok at Chepstow, over a trip too short, tapped for toe, fading, but plugging on again over 19f in heavy. He had Top and Drop, Pop Rockstar and Bennys King in front that day – they’ve won 6 times between them since, all 6/7, well handicapped at the time. He’d finish 1l behind Top and Drop again back at Chepstow over 24f, a race that has produced 12 subsequent winners (inc Top and Drop who’d win his next two). He lugged 12-2 around that day, staying on again at the end. His form would get better mind, beating Finusatgorcombe at Wincanton over 25f who’s won a few since, inc on his return at Exeter a couple of weeks back – front two miles clear (one did fall two out there, but he’d come back upsides him). Back to Chepstow he ran well again in 3rd, the horse just behind him there has won twice since.

It is though that Exeter run which stands out, as the best staying chase form in this line up, and showing his progression – he finished a 2L 2nd to One of Us there who outstayed him over that 3m6f trip. He was running on fumes having been leading 3 out, but tried hard to the line. One of Us has obviously won since, in the ‘National’ at Fontwell, beating a good one of Nicholls a couple of weeks back. Decent form. You Say What was 3rd at Exeter also, and he’d win again. He was splitting 112 and 115 horses there, now rated higher. Dancing Shadow was 4th and he placed on his return on the 5th. That is the strongest handicap chase form in this line up, and if he repeated it, he’d win this – if he’s ahead approaching the top of the hill/swinging for home, i’m not sure anything will outstay him.

Given all that i couldnt resist at 14s. It just seemed big. Maybe he’s lost his way but I didn’t see signs of that LTO. He was worth chancing.

Of the rest… well nothing else looks overpriced in here and they all have questions.

Late Date is solid and likes it here – he won LTO but they dawdled there and I’m not sure what he beat. He needs to step forward against better horses but it’s not impossible. He is the right fav I think.

Exit To Where is still a maiden, the yard are a bit hit and miss at the moment and Russell is just 4/90 in the last 2 years with horses she moves in trip by 20%+ from last start (up or down – I think that’s how Geegeez works out the trainer ‘distance move’ stats) He’s shaped at Hexham as if 26f in soft may be what he needs (albeit a ground question), but he could have been getting outpaced because he’s just slow/not that good! I couldn’t touch him with stolen money at his price and if he takes this so be it. He is lightly raced and does arrive fit and in form, so never a total shock.

Another Emotion may take this but again isn’t overpriced imo. He’s having just his second chase start and I do wonder if this track may not sharp enough for him – in any case he has stamina to prove, and in this ground, and is still learning the chasing game. He can beat me at 4s, which he may do, but I want to take him on at the price.

As I do Billy Bronco who just didn’t show enough LTO albeit his win was under Sean B so maybe he will galvanise him. The chase he won at Exeter may well have been due to Lithic throwing away yet another race (he doesn’t like hitting the front/battling). He does handle soft though and gallops, but for 5s or so his run LTO was just too bad, tailed off way before fitness should have been an issue.

That leaves Kings Eclipse – solid maybe, fit and in some sort of form. The softer the better for him and if this is a heavy ground swamp he may be the one they have to beat, based on his Carlisle win last December – but that was a poor race really, in terms of the ratings of both him and the oppo. Again, 5s doesn’t seem that generous and Day is only 1/41 riding here.

I really do think this should be about what Sandhurst Lad turns up – if its the one from his hurdles days that stayed on in soft/heavy + the one who led 3 out at Exeter, and rallied for 2nd, he’s the one to beat.

Given my form he’ll probably make his first ever bad blunder and never be travelling. But hopefully not. I want to see him swinging away on the front end, enjoying himself. We should have some fun if that’s the case. These sorts will start dropping in again one day. 🙂

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • AW T/T
    Well that was close. Todays sel was 4th at 100 early morning prices sp25/1.

    Two for Tuesday.

    4.50 W Comacho Man J Candish T/J 7/2
    7.20 W Oh so Nice T Carroll Dist 13/2

    Mike

    mickeydee 25/11/19 6:14 PM Reply


  • 1950 and Sandhurst Lad has shortened already!

    manyanga 25/11/19 7:55 PM Reply


  • Punchestown 1-10. Sizing Pottsie 6-1 ew, Dlauro is the odds on fav for this but i think the very short price is mainly due to connections and want to take it on, Sizing Pottsie has also won nhf at the same level and came a creditable 3rd lto in a better race and was only beaten 1.5l by Mt Leinster who was 2nd 3 days ago at Gowran Park when beaten by the well thought of Easywork. Sizing Pottsie’s experience over hurdles could be the difference and i thought the 6-1 gives a bit of wiggle room for an ew punt.

    martin whittle 26/11/19 3:21 AM Reply


    • Scoir Mear 2-40 might be worth a couple of quid @22’s sky

      martin whittle 26/11/19 3:26 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    TIP TOP
    No bets today
    Colin

    cleafe 26/11/19 9:37 AM Reply


  • Daily Mail coverage of the disgusting bookmakers, over the past few days they have been exposing the bookmakers under hand tactics to exploit the losers and problem gamblers, well worth a read, nothing new which i already knew.
    They are calling for action against them, afraid dont hold your breath for over 70% of beneifits to MPs come from the bookmakers.
    Well worth a read and certainly hope they are taken to task.
    Colin.

    cleafe 26/11/19 11:17 AM Reply


    • Football bets are pretty muggy at the best of times and football accy’s the biggest mug bet of them all. Like you say, nothing new there then!

      handbag 26/11/19 12:35 PM Reply


      • What’s more of a problem is how the whole industry including casino’s is largely fuelled by drug money and other illegally gotten gains where these people have a lot of money to splash around and don’t care about losing, creating more crime in the process. Always been like it and always will be the same vicious cycle no matter what is said or ‘exposed’.

        handbag 26/11/19 12:46 PM Reply


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