Members Daily Post: 25/11/19 (complete)

test tips x2, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/135, 44p +20.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/57,22p, +9.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#1 2.15 Lud – CAPITAL FORCE – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365/BV/Coral) 5/1 (others) UR 1st, over jumped/approached too quick, which given how that race panned out/fell apart/winner out on his feet to my eyes, was a tad annoying, but the drift suggested he may struggle anyway.

#2 2.35 Kemp – TIMOTEO – 1 point win – 17/2 (WH) 8/1 (BV) 15/2 (gen) UP 6/1

that’s all for today, as of 09.16, write ups at bottom of post..

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Kempton

2.35 – Ballotin (micro runs) w1 12/1 Fell

3.10 – Fontley House (m runs) 11/1 WON 12/1

 

Ludlow

2.15 – Master Work (all Hc’s) w2 ES+ H3 7/1 S3A 2nd 

2.45 – Voodoo Doll (m -class) H3 I3 4/1 UP

3.50 – Urtheonethatiwant (HcH) 4/1

 

Musselburgh

1.55 –

Keep The River (HcH) 16/1 S2A UP

Something Brewing (HcH) w2 G1 11/1 S1 UP

Lastofthecosmics (HcH)25/1 S2A UP

2.25 –

Honourable Gent (HcCh) w2 H3 8/1 UP

Sporting Press (HcCh)7/2 2nd

3.30 – Frame Rate (HcH) 9/1UP

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TTP Chase Micros

2.25 Muss – Sporting Press 7/2 2nd

2.35 Kemp – Doctor Dex  H1 5/2 2nd 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers 

C Longsdon 

2.35 Kemp – Vivas  12/1 UP

 

November Trainers

12.35 Lud – Lough Her (33/1< guide) 18/1

1.05 Lud – Blue Monday (33/1< guide) 10/3

1.30 Kemp – Phoenician Start (33/1< guide) 66/1

1.40 Lud – Hurricane Harvey (33/1< guide) Evens

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

1.20 Muss – Court Master 4/1  WON 5/1 

2.25 Muss – Sporting Press 7/2 2nd

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.35 Kemp – Saintemilion 10/1 UP

 

LTO Winning Trainers

12.45 Muss – Smart Lass (12/1< guide) 7/1 2nd

 

Chase Eye-Catcher 2019/20

3.50 Lud – Agent Westy (hurdles) 10/1

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

2.15 Lud – Capital Force –

This horse is having his 12th chase start but only 5th in a handicap. Back in May he hacked up over this CD off 126 (129 today/5lb claimer) beating Valsuer Du Granval and Hatcher in the process. That win was also his second start back after a short break (1st run for the yard), having returned to action in a C3 handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. They have gone down exactly the same path again here and I can only assume he badly needed it LTO, sent off 33s.

His chase form for the Keighley’s has a good look to it, certainly in the context of this race. His run at Stratford was decent in a C2 and if he hadn’t stumbled on landing he’d have been 2nd at least, and may have gone very close to winning. The 145 rated McGroaty won that and won on his next start also. Solid form. The Worcester race wasn’t too bad, in a race run at a crawl, but again that’s produced a few subsequent winners as has the Southwell run- that was a novice chase and he had a penalty to carry, the form reading ok in that context.

The CP return here, worn once in Ireland, and he should get a strong pace to sit off, which I think he needs. He won on soft in Ireland, over hurdles, and bar Newland’s (French form) is the only soft ground winner under rules in this. It is a slight niggle but it is for most in here.

Of the rest…

Well Hatcher can blow his top/over-race – he did that at Ascot, and when the selection beat him here in May. STD may not have Harry have it all his own way here and in these conditions I didn’t think it was nailed on that he’d finish off his race. Obv it’s a big drop in class from LTO but the level of his winning chase form isn’t that great. I thought he was worth taking on at 2s. IF he gets an easy lead, drops his head, and goes Harry’s pace, before kicking turning for home, the rest may be in trouble – but he didn’t look a bombproof 2s shot to my eyes.

Court Royal has generally wanted better ground and in any case I didn’t think he was overpriced. Valseur’s best form is on good ground and he’s getting on a bit now, esp in a race packed with younger horses, and If mine ran his race i’m not sure why he’d overturn that May form.

Red Mix is interesting – I’d want to see more in the UK/and over fences before wading in at 6s or so  – if his price collapses that could spell danger – but he’s yet to settle fully over here it seems but he clearly has ability, based on some of his French form, and his 2nd here over hurdles. It’s hard to know if he’s well handicapped or not – hopefully one to catch NTO, and not today!

Pace… well he’s usually patiently ridden and he should get a pace to aim at here, albeit they’ve raced him closer to the pace before, and in reapplied CP, may be handier, provided he drops his head.

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2.35 Kemp – Timoteo-

I didn’t want to  miss him at this price as he’s an exciting prospect who should strip much fitter for his return LTO, where he was also hampered at one stage, losing his action/allowed to coast home from there. He was fresh enough also/over-racing a tad.  King has said that a few of his haven’t been fit enough on first run back when encountering soft, so I hope we will see a different horse today.

He is the most exciting in this line up and really ‘could be anything’ this season. I March he won his first two chase starts in facile fashion, the first on the bridle hard held, and the second here easily enough also. He wasn’t beating trees there either, 9 subsequent winners out of those races. They were good performances on the figures also and I just think we could see something decent from him today. He did jump out slightly to his left at times during his Kempton win but bar one fence, it was straight enough to my eyes, and at 15/2 I thought worth chancing – i’ll trust in connections returning here. I’ve no doubt he could be much better than this mark and this trip may now bring out more also. He’s exciting.

The main dangers are from that Ascot race I think. I don’t see why On The Slopes would finish ahead of Doctor Dex here, and the latter is the correct fav – however he seemed short enough to my eyes, up 8lb, and at a speedier track. But he did jump/travel well there, and if mine doesn’t run his race/ive got him wrong, he could step forward again and take this well. He does need to improve again though, but he’s entitled to. Maybe this track/the 5lb pull will help reverse the placings of those two, not impossible, if Jamie is ultra aggressive.

I thought the rest had a few too many questions for today I think and did think it was between the top 3 in the market, albeit Nicholls has a runner and they can never be fully dismissed. The top 3 have achieved a fair bit more over fences to date though.

Pace wise.. On The Slopes will try and make all, Doctor Dex tracking. Timoteo is a strong/pacey traveller and over this trip I thought he could sit handy enough also. Tom generally doesn’t like to be too far back on a chaser.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. TIP TOP
    2.15 Ludlow Hatcher 2/1
    1.55 Musselburgh Trapper Peak 10/3
    3.00 Musselburgh Remember The Days 3/1
    3.40 Kempton Storm Rising 7/2
    5.00 Chelmsford Pearl Specture 9/2
    Colin

    1. that shouldn’t be a problem, as always post a reminder on Friday’s post when it goes up Thursday evening, otherwise I will forget! 🙂

  2. Hi Stewart
    in response to your theory which i strongly agree the weather is certainly taking its toll on racing and the rain has been consistent for 3 months.
    Horses cannot be compared with footballers for horses are breed with certain going in mind footballers are not.
    Many trainers have access to AW gallops and so are not necesserally training their horses on rain soaked ground and if they did, say 80 horses then their turf gallops would be more mud than grass and would be a danger to the horses welfare causing potential injury to some.
    Trainers enter their horses in races to bring down their HC mark not expecting to win the race every time they run their horse, and the experience for the horse loading into the horsebox along with a change of scenery and the hustle and bustle of the racecourse and running in an actual race is far better than any training gallop.
    When travelling in the horsebox to the races it is very noticable that the horse knows where it is going and becomes excited when close to the course, wonderful days.
    Stewart not having a pop at you but had too record my experience over the years and the knowledge having been involved with a racing stable for well over 30 years.
    Cheers
    Colin

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