Members Daily Post: 23/11/19 (complete)

write ups…Tip x4, Section 2 (complete), test zone, big race trainer pointers

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/133, 44p +22.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

#1 12.40 Hayd – AMALFI DOUG – 1 point win – 18/1 (UniB) 16/1 (Bet365/BV) 14s (others) PU, hasn’t run his race there/something amiss.

#2 3.40 Hayd – MOVING IN STYLE – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365/Unib/BV) 17/2 (WH) 2nd, ran well, he’s stayed, just the old boy has stayed better – he was fresh early, in part lit up by the loose horses, and hit a couple, but it didn’t cost him – I thought he may pick him up, until app the last.

#4 12.55 Ascot – NEACHELLS BRIDGE – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 3rd, ran well, loomed up and looked dangerous at one point.

#1 08.47,, #2 as of 09.46, #4 10.38… THATS ALL FOR TODAY, x4 Tips total inc one below…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/55,22p, +11.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#3 3.20 Ascot – CAID DU LIN – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) PU, odd- either he’s hated the blinkers, just had an off day, or something has gone pop internally – not that it mattered, was an error taking on Capeland in hindsight.

as of 10.12… that’s all for the test, x4 tips in total…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ascot

3.20 –

Diego Du Charmil (micro class)  w1  ES+ H1 G3 7/1 S3A#  2nd

Capeland (m class) L ES+  4/1 S3A WON 4/1> 11/4 

 

Haydock

1.50 – Bold Plan (HcH,m age) I3 6/1  WON 6/1>11/4 

2.25 – Umbrigado (m age) 15/2 UP

3.40 – Know The Score (HcCh,m age and runs)  w1 H1 I1 G1 5/2 S4 UP

 

Huntingdon

2.50 – Cyclop (all Hc’s) 6/1

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TTP Chase Micros

12.55 A – Pym   H1 I3 7/2 WON 7/2>11/4

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

C Longsdon

3.40 Hayd – Diger Daudaie (12/1<) 6/1 UP

 

November Trainers

12.55 A – Highest Sun (12/1<) 5/2 2nd

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

12.40 Hayd – Amalfi Doug (11/1<) 14/1  PU

3.40 Hayd – Gold Opera (11/1<) 16/1UP

12.55 A – Deise Aba (14/1<)  10/1 UP

3.20 A – Imperial Presence (14/1<) 25/1 UP DNQ

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

3.20 A – Caid Du Lin (17/2< guide) 10/1 PU/ Northern Beau (any)

 

Chase Eye-Catcher 2019/20

12.55 A – Deise Aba 10/1 UP

2.40 A – Lil Rockerfeller (hurdles) 14/1 UP

1.15 Hayd – The Hollow Ginge 7/2 UP

3.40 Hayd- Moving In Style 7/1 2nd

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Trainer Pointers (to have won race/with runners)

3.20 Ascot 

  • The Last Day
  • Capeland / Diego Du Charmil
  • Knocknanuss
  • Caid Du Lin

12.40 Haydock

  • Burtons Well
  • Back To The Thatch
  • Sharp Response

1.50 Haydock

  • Bold Plan
  • Fin And Game

2.25 Haydock

  • Umbrigado
  • Flast The Steel / Diomede Des Mottes

3.40 Haydock

  • Zerachiel

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Write ups…

Amalfi Doug… This race feels open enough to my eyes and I can’t work out why Amalfi Doug is 14s in this line up. He races on the pace, he jumps very well – or has done to date – he won’t mind what the ground does and he’s still open to progress. He will need to step forward but a couple of starts ago he beat Soupy Soups at Perth, and we know how well he ran at Wincanton. Initially dismissive of that form its worked out rather well, including Elliots running well in Ireland a couple of times. Last time out at Kelso the dolled off the 2 fences up the straight due to low sun – given how he was jumping on the front end there that really didn’t help – it also turned it into a proper stamina test – fences slow them down/actually allow the horses to catch their breath while jumping/in the air- and it’s no surprise a previous Eider winner stayed on, One For Arthur staying on also. That was over a stiff enough 26f also. I saw no reason why he wouldn’t run his race here and the evidence suggests he has the ability to compete.

Dangers… well I won’t talk through them all- Thelingny is interesting at 8s – I can see the case for him and he may relish this trip. But he does have it to prove and is a chase maiden, and i’m not sure as to strength of race LTO, where he didn’t jump that well at times. But he’s unexposed.

Burton’s Well may well take this again but I think LTO was the time to catch him, which Nick did and in my ‘through the card’ – i think plenty of us had a nibble. He isn’t overpriced today but despite his age is still open to progress. That was a weak enough Vets race though, and clearly he hasn’t been the soundest in his career. I thought the rest had plenty of questions at their price and in what could be testing ground.

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Neachells Bridge – i’ll find some discipline and leave these novice handicaps one day but I couldn’t help myself with this one at the price, in what could be testing enough ground. He was running a cracker at the track LTO, travelled well, jumped well, and was staying on when suffering awful interference 2 out – to my eyes he’d have been a running on 3rd or 4th, and may well have been ahead of Darling Maltaix. He’s related to a few point winners/stayers and the fact Mulholland steps him up in trip again would suggest they think 3m is his trip. Some of his efforts over 20/21f over hurdles would indicate he could be a staying chaser in the making, as was his effort LTO- slightly tapped for toe, staying on. Obviously he has stamina to prove – he may not stay- but hence why he’s 14s, because he isn’t obvious – and of course i’m judging that he may well improve for the trip. I don’t think ground will be a problem.

The ‘shorties’ all have questions – a mix of going RH, first run at track, stamina unproven over fences, and soft ground – some of them have to answer all those questions. I thought there could be an upset. There may not of course, and Highest Sun looks interesting but short enough to my eyes. Twisters has stamina to prove esp around here, in soft – albeit he did run LTO as if worth another go back at the trip. Still, a question at 5s. I think 6s<, esp in a race like this, you prob want proven stamina. But of course these conditions may transform a few positively.

Darling Matrix can be keen and does have a question over this trip, over fences- he shapes as if he may relish it but if he doesn’t settle he may not get home. I wanted to see more from the Hobbs horse LTO, his first chase start.

Hopefully over this trip/the more sedate pace, Robbie Dunne may have him handy enough albeit jockeys are rarely aggressive when stepping up in trip like this. But he travelled/jumped well LTO and I hope he’s a lively outsider.

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Caid Du Lin – i thought he was worth a go at 10s given he won this race last year, Sean Bowen jumps on (Hammond ridden both runs this season, and he’s only ‘ok’ on a chaser imo) and they switch the headgear. In these 17f races the horses can seemingly keep beating each other – a bit like sprint handicaps I suppose- and in part that will be down to ‘pace/speed/how hard they go’ – LTO I’m not sure they went quick enough for him but his jockey didn’t exactly exude confidence, both seemingly careful at a few fences which is unlike him. With Knockanuss in this, and Speredek (may try front running again) they may go harder here – the soft ground could also help him slow it down/put emphasis on stamina – he’s a staying 17f horse – his return at Chepstow proved he handles soft and stays further. IF he can hold a position he should be running on. He has, for example, finished ahead Capeland before here at back end of last season. There’s a chance this has been the plan, 78k to the winner, vs 34 for the race LTO. He’s still open to a bit of improvement this season also. Maybe Sean won’t be so patient today.

The dangers… well Capeland is obvious and BF was convinced he was winning LTO. He could win this well, and maybe he’s one to take on with an EW bet, but alas. I like The Last Day but he didn’t beat much LTO and this is some step up for me, esp first run here. But he did win it well and should run a big race.

I’d hope Knocknanuss will blow his top on the front end, esp in blinkers, but he’d be dangerous if getting well ahead. He did have a last race when last seen. Diego may go well again but clearly needs to step forward again given the rise. You’d expect Capeland to be in front of him today if both running their race. I could leave the rest.

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Moving In Style… well a ‘chase eye-catcher’ – i’ve said I wanted to be with this one when running over 3m4f +, and I just couldn’t leave him at 9s or so – I like the fact Sam was on LTO and again today, I wonder if that’s been deliberate. I’ve no doubt this horse has an ok staying pot in him – he was pulling away at Sedgefield over 26f back end of last season. He’s been outpaced twice at Exeter over 3m, and ran as if needing it LTO. But it was a solid return. Those two runs would indicate that soft ground is no issue for him. I don’t think he would want heavy – and if he does flounder, that will be why. But he was worth chancing if I assume this will be soft. He generally travels and jumps very well and Sam couldn’t be riding better/with more confidence, and he does very well at this track. There’s a niggle over the yard form but a few have been running well and plenty of his horses will have been needing the run on seasonal returns etc. I just couldn’t not back him today given my judgement on how he shapes for a test like this.

Of the rest…

Well Kings Monarch interested me but he’s both unproven over 3m and unproven in soft – when combining those two things I was happy to leave at 9s- there’s a chance he relishes both and he has shaped as if worth a go over a staying trip. The yard are in better form now and he is interesting to a point. Just a bit too much guesswork, whereas the selection has a ‘pulling away at the line’ win over 26f, for example. This one has yet to win beyond 22f as yet. But, on his last 3 starts he has been visibly outpaced at times to my eyes. I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver, albeit I did also note that Lee is 0/22,3p with her ‘distance move’ (20%+ up or down from LTO) in last two years. But, he does look interesting to a point.

The rest have enough questions at their prices for me. I like Know The Score and if he stays in this ground, he may take some stopping. I like his attitude and that race LTO could turn into good form, the front two well clear. But, 5/2 is short for one who has to prove stamina in a slog and for one so inexperienced over fences. Longsdon’s is only having his 2nd chase start also and didn’t jump well LTO – 5s seems short for him also. Late Romantic is interesting and there could be more to come, up in class/up in trip. His run at MR over 28f may suggest there could be stronger stayers in this.

So, we shall see. Over this trip Sam may be able to hold a more prominent position.

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So, four pokes, all at a price. I’ll keep everything crossed at least one goes in! I/we could do with it. Bets of luck

 

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Off to haydock as always be interested to hear any thoughts if anyone has time, Josh through card thoughts are always welcome 🙂

    Personally fancy umbrigado after wind op should stay?

    First race a lottery.

    Stayers looking forward to the most from a betting perspective. Zerachiel won last year same jock up, also moving in style off a low weight , good jock and should like the ultra distance ?

    Cheers

    Luke

    1. I’ll have a look Luke 🙂 I’ll give the two hncp chases a good look. There’s the trainer pointers above for a few races etc. The hurdles look a challenge! But I could do with finding a chase winner, I’ve forgotten what one of them looks like!
      I’ll try and do a through the card. Will likely be close to race 1.

    2. Hi Luke, you may miss these and plenty of caution, i’ve spent very little time on them and prob shouldn’t have bothered, but sometimes the instinct works ok!

      12.05 – Torn and Frayed
      12.40 – Amalfi Doug (tip)
      1.15 – The Hollow Ginge
      1.50 – Bold Plan
      2.25 – Breaking News / Acey Milan (wouldn’t put you off Pipes/Scu)
      3.00 – hmmm… just watch? Bristol the solid one if you must
      3.40 – Moving In Style (tip)

      Enjoy, and don’t let anything above put you off your own track-side fancies!
      Josh

  2. AW T/T
    We had a winner 20/1 sp..34bfsp Art of America. 1 sel tomorrow.

    5.10 W Toni’s a Star A Carroll Dist. 12/1

    Mike

  3. very quite day for me been through the cards but nothing grabs me so just a couple of small bets at Haydock.

    1-50. Irish Roe and Gortroe Joe were of the most interest to me and i might have a small interest in them
    2-25. Sykes @ 33-1 with bfsb paying 6 places £2 ew, just seemed silly not to i know he has to lug around top weight but was a good c&d winner back in Febuary and was far from disgraced when a 8l 3rd to Tobefair on reappearence .
    3-00. I love Frodon imho one of the best jumpers around and has very little to find with the top 2 and i’ve had £4 @ 13-2 just for an interest when watching the race.

    1. I think the correct play on Sykes is to bet on the 5 or 6 place markets on the exchanges and will be doing some of that near race time. He probably finds one or two too good but few more solid for a place.

  4. So, as with everything you have to take the rough with the smooth, so, hopefully I can do myself justice today, apologies in advance to Josh and Ryan.
    12:40 HAYDOCK
    THELIGNY 1pt win 17/2 gen
    lightly raced really compared to some of these, think the cobwebs will have been blown off here and I agree that the extra trip should suit, only worry is that you do need to stay more than the advertised distances here, but, he does look like he will, built into the price and it looks value at 17/2.
    AMALFI DOUG 1pt win 16/1
    Another lightly raced one, with a jockey on board who knows how to ride Haydock, should be up the front and Mr Hughes is always savvy at Haydock on the stayers. Ran really well against Mysteree lto who is a dour stayer, so, no problem on the staying front.

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Can`t buy a winner at the moment, apologies for putting people onto these horses at the moment, these are the kind of things that make or break you.I have been here before, so, suppose the only solace is that everyone else around me isn`t fairing much better, tough months October and November!!

      1. chin up, it’s bloody tough at the moment, alas that’s how it goes- frustrating but can only keep grafting away and they will start dropping in at some point. Tough.

  5. Sixtys Belle Ascot 13:30 1pt e/w-12/1-Looked a big price as one of the most unexposed in the field had some good form last season. Would have needed it last time out. 9 out of 10 runnings of this has gone to a horse aged 6 or younger and there are only 4 horses of that age in this. Trainer Tom Symonds has won this twice from 4 runners so clearly targets this. After being out in the cold a little bit he has had 3 winners from his last ten runners so is running hot.
    Lisnagar Oscar Haydock 14:25 1pt e/w-10/1-Had some excellent novice hurdle form over 3m last year including winning over 3m here in a grade 2 and being the 2nd best British horse in the AB and 3rd behind Champ in the Sefton. Now chasing hasn’t worked out this year although his re-appearance wasn’t bad. I think a mark of 141 looks lenient on his handicap debut. Brian Hughes is a more than able deputy given Sean is at Ascot.
    Vaniteux Ascot 15:20 1pt e/w-16/1-I just thought the price was big given I thought the quality of the Cheltenham race was better than the Ascot one which covers a lot of the field. I don’t get why he is three times the price of Knocknanuss. His two runs over fences since switching to Sophie Leech has resulted in a win in a 37k chase in France and a 2nd to a horse who is a graded horse. He has traditionally been better away from Cheltenham also. I cannot see anything getting an easy lead and I expect them to go hard and he can pick up the pieces.

  6. Hay’ 12.05 Ballinsker……………. 8.0 NH
    Asc’ 12.20 Prince Llewellyn….. 6.0 NH
    Hunt’ 2.15 Vue Cavaliere………. 9.0 NFH

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