Members Daily Post: 22/11/19 (complete)

Video preview – All Tips x2, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/130, 42p +25.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

# 1 3.15 Ascot – GOOD MAN PAT – 1 point win – 11/1 (WH) 10/1 (bet365/SB/BV/UniB/BetF) UP, 4th, 7/1.. ah, a run for my money, looked dangerous all the way through, but tired late on – thought he may swoop past at one point, travelled/jumped well, one for NTO I suspect, not that he’ll be 10s. 

that’s all for this race as of 08.44, and that’s all for today, x2 in total inc one below. Video preview bottom of post

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/53,22p, +12.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

# 2 2.40 Ascot – MR MEDIC – 1 point win – 15/2 (WH) 7/1 (bet365/WH/Coral/BetF) UP…hmm, he’s travelled into that very well, but then nothing there when asked on home bend, suggesting he did badly need it this time, and/or he’s hated the going, which looks a bit more testing than I anticipated/changed mid morning, but that was predicable so no excuse there. At least he should be dropped – should have a decent chase in him at some point. 

As of 09.18, that’s all for today, Video preview bottom of post. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ascot

3.45 –

Malaya (HcH,micro class) ES+ I1 8/1 S3A

Red Force One (HcH,m class) w2 ES+ H1 G3 2/1 S3A# 

 

Catterick

12.45 – Burning Issues (HcCh) ES+ I3 18/1 S2A S3A

 

Ffos Las

The below technically don’t qualify today and will not count for any strategies etc, as the going isn’t officially ‘Heavy’ , albeit seems testing enough. I’ll leave them there for those of you who use such quals as ‘starting points’ etc

1.10 – Cruising Bye (m going IF hvy) w1 w2 H3 I1 G1

3.25 –

Francky Du Berlais (m going IF hvy) L H3 I1

Rooster Cogburn (m going IF hvy)  G1

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TTP Chase Micros

12.45 Catt – Burning Issue (any)  I3 18/1 

1.10 FL – Cruising Bye (6/1<) H3 I1 G1 9/1 

3.15 Ascot – Dragon DEstruval (any) I3  7/1 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers (3/13,7p, +4.25) 

V Williams (any) 

I’m not sure her chaser at MR had ever seen a fence! 🙂 

2.40 A – Didero Vallis 4/1  UP

2.50 FL – Arqalina 11/4  WON 11/4>5/2 

 

November Trainers

1.30 A – Mount Batur (33/1< guide) 14/1 

2.05 A – Master Debonair (12/1<) 6/5 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

3.15 A – Coningsby (13/2<) 10/1 

 

Long Lay Off Trainers

1.1o FL – De Bene Esse 11/1 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.40 A – Mercian Prince (9/1< guide)20/1 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

3.00 Catt – Knockrobin 8/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW… Trends Thursday Post HERE>>> 

 

The chasing game/tips/reflections 

It’s a tough time at the moment – some bad, some good, some unlucky. October/November can be trickier months than most but i’ve never warmed to ‘racing advisers’ finding excuses, whether it’s time of year, going, end of long seasons etc – that’s part of the game. It’s my job to consider such factors. But in any case it always causes me to reflect on how things are going. Obviously losing runs are linked to win %, but also just luck/variance over time – something none of us can control. I’ve had a few 2nds, a few of them close enough, and in general that’s a positive – split second action through a race deciding the outcome. Dealing with such runs/adversity is part of the challenge, especially mentally, while also realising there may be things I could be doing better.

Of course part of coping with bad luck/variance/losing runs, is having faith in your approach – you can never lack for confidence in this game, which I don’t – but at the same time you should always want to improve, reflect on recent performance/process, while using past results as a sort of confidence booster I suppose.

With that in mind I have looked back at my chase and Festival efforts, since the start of 2014 which was the first full year of the blog.  The 3m+ hncp chases (which were in the free posts/now in members as the main tips) and the ‘Festival/Big races’ . (main focus being Cheltenham)

3m+ chases

2014… +40.75 points  / 2015… +41.05 / 2016… +75 / 2017… +79.5 / 2018… +40 / 2019… +26.8

Big Race/Festivals (2017> when attacked separately)

2017… +62 / 2018… +143 / 2019… -45.8

Total : +463.3 points (all mainly 1 point win, a few EW)

That’s an average of +77 points per year – which in truth if you promised me every year, on average, i’d take. Albeit we/I always want more. 🙂

This year has been tough for a few it seems and maybe 2019 is a frustrating correction to last year’s +183 points or so from the Free post and Members ‘Big race/Festival’ tips. This year’s place % in the Festival Tips wasn’t that different to last year- a game of fine margins, esp with my general win only approach.

Anyway, that gives me some confidence while realising I could be doing better – albeit conscious you cannot force bets, which we can all be guilty of at times. As Colin would say such runs and variance in performance over time are another reminder of the need for a ‘betting bank’ /starting small>building up – but aside from that, it’s also a reminder to re-evaluate my approach/thinking, knowing there may be areas for improvement. With that in mind I will pull together another post soon – a kind of ‘chase checklist’ and a reminder of ‘winning traits’ in these races.

As always if you’ve any questions, comments etc, positive or negative/constructive, fire away.

Josh

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Tips…

20 Min Video Preview (clearly no hope of keeping that under 7 mins this time! apols) ….

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. AW T/T
    Another loser today, unfortunately. The state of play since the 7th Nov when we had the last winner 18 bfsp. WE are now -4pts
    There are 5 sel tomorrow not sure if anyone is still following these but I will continue until the month end and look at the figures then.

    6.15 D Art of America N Meade Hcp 9/1
    Laura Bullion N Meade Hcp 16/1
    6.45 D Assurance J Bolger/ K Manning plus Dist 5/4
    7.45 D Bandiuc Eile J Bolger/ K Manning plus Dist 11/10

    5.30 N Castlehill Retreat B Haslam Nur Hcp 11/4

    Mike

    1. Wow!!! Art of America comes in at 20/1. Good old BOG.
      AS it is said many times on this site Play the Long game.

      Mike

  2. COLINS BETS now ORIGINAL
    Looking good going back to the old method 3 winners from 9 in November so far for a profit of + 7.583 and all 3 have been on the AW so the next 3 months should be profitable as previous years, bar for this year when tweaked the method and had a disaster AW campaign, never learn after all these years!!!
    Love the AW for hardly dare say it the going is consistent and the horses that tend to run on it tend to act on it, previous years the profit has been 30 to 50 points each month Dec/Jan/Feb, so here i am to be shot at.
    Colin.

    1. Hi Colin i must admit i have been a bit dismissive of AW racing in the past with the different surfaces i find it a bit of a minefield .
      saying that i have recently been taking a closer look and to highlight my ignorance i have one question is stall 1 always the closest to the inside rail?

      1. Hi Martin
        Yes stall one is on the inside rail on all the AW courses and low numbers do have an advantage, on all courses.
        Southwell 5 furlong is straight so the draw at this distance is of no advantage, 6/7 furlong a low draw is worth looking at.
        Tonight at Newcasle Jim Goldie who i am a great fan over the years runs Oriental Cross but is drawn 13 and have decided not to back it for the race is only 6 furlong, now if it had a better draw would have put it up in Colins bets, no doubt it will win by 5 lengths but at the time of typing there has been no money for it, and it should be winning soon but doubt tonight.
        Colin

        1. Colin, interesting comment re Oriental Cross. I live not far from the racecourse and go to a few of their AW meetings. I haven’t got the stats since they reverted to AW on the flat but plenty of high drawn horses seem to win over 6f. ATW website states draw advantage is High over 6f. Please correct me if I am talking rubbish but think it dangerous to dismiss a horse because of a high draw

          Peter

          1. Peter thanks for pointing this out must have had a mental block for some reason forgot the 6 furlong at Newcastle is straight not on the round course, trying to rush and that when mistakes are made.
            After doing my research do not think that i have made the wrong decision by not backing Oriental Lilly and is on the drift in the betting market so will be happy waiting for another day for will be winning soon.
            Once again thanks
            Colin

  3. Evening,

    We go again and I`m siding with the two Hobbs runners in the 15:15 at Ascot, hopefully get the ball rolling on my season. I have had a bad run lately, but, think the run has to end sometime!

    REIKERS ISLAND 1pt win 8/1 gen
    DIPLOMATE SIVOLA 1pt win 9/1 gen

    write ups hopefully in morning.

    1. REIKERS ISLAND
      Well, the price has near enough gone for this one now and I wouldn`t be surprised if he went off favourite. He goes well RH and on flat tracks, so, those boxes are ticked. He also has only a few runs, comes into this off the back of a good effort LTO and now must be primed for this. As always though err on the side of caution with my selections atm, not on a good run.

      DIPLOMAT SIVOLA
      I don`t know if the owners know what to do with DS at the moment, he has run over different distances, different classes and over weird and wonderful tracks, one thing that has remained consistent is the horses form and the jockey, he has lugged some big weights round albeit in lower class, but, has won some of his races coming back onto the bridle, so, with a feather weight and his usual jockey on board, the 16/1 that is now available is value in my eyes! I think the PU was because of running in a small field and not being able to find his rhythm that day, he raced keenly and that may have been his undoing, would strike a line through it.

      As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. It’d be nice if something really was done but I have no faith it will. They’ve so much money they’ll be lobbying like mad to keep the status quo.

  4. No real standouts today but a few i’m just having small ew’s on.
    Catterick.
    12-15. Winningtry 9-1
    12-45. Paddling 15-2
    Ascot.
    2-40. Mercian Prince 20-1
    3-15. King Of Realms 7-1
    3-45. Lust For Glory 15-2

  5. COLINS BETS
    No bet today
    Do not wish to miss lead you but Colins bets will still include NH bets when they meet my criteria, but many of the bets will be AW.
    Colin

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