Members Daily Post: 21/11/19 (complete)

Section 2 (complete), test zone, chase reflections

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/129, 42p +26.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None. A poor day’s racing again but there should be plenty to get stuck into on Friday/Sat/Sunday.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/52,22p, +13.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Market Rasen

2.40 – Urbanist (HcCh,micro age) w2 H1 G1 6/5 

 

Wincanton……….None

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

V Williams (2/10,6p, +3.5)

2.05 MR – Roll Again (any) 5/1 

 

November Trainers

2.50 Winc – Jeremy Sunshine (12/1<) 18/1 / Cage of Fear (33/1<) 12/1 

3.50 Winc – Right Destination (33/1<) 13/2 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

LTO Winning Starting Points (12/1<) 

2.15 Winc – Crossley Tender 13/8 

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.15 Winc – Out For Justice (25/1<) 7/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

The chasing game/tips/reflections 

It’s a tough time at the moment – some bad, some good, some unlucky. October/November can be trickier months than most but i’ve never warmed to ‘racing advisers’ finding excuses, whether it’s time of year, going, end of long seasons etc – that’s part of the game. It’s my job to consider such factors. But in any case it always causes me to reflect on how things are going. Obviously losing runs are linked to win %, but also just luck/variance over time – something none of us can control. I’ve had a few 2nds, a few of them close enough, and in general that’s a positive – split second action through a race deciding the outcome. Dealing with such runs/adversity is part of the challenge, especially mentally, while also realising there may be things I could be doing better.

Of course part of coping with bad luck/variance/losing runs, is having faith in your approach – you can never lack for confidence in this game, which I don’t – but at the same time you should always want to improve, reflect on recent performance/process, while using past results as a sort of confidence booster I suppose.

With that in mind I have looked back at my chase and Festival efforts, since the start of 2014 which was the first full year of the blog.  The 3m+ hncp chases (which were in the free posts/now in members as the main tips) and the ‘Festival/Big races’ . (main focus being Cheltenham)

3m+ chases

2014… +40.75 points  / 2015… +41.05 / 2016… +75 / 2017… +79.5 / 2018… +40 / 2019… +26.8

Big Race/Festivals (2017> when attacked separately)

2017… +62 / 2018… +143 / 2019… -45.8

Total : +463.3 points (all mainly 1 point win, a few EW)

That’s an average of +77 points per year – which in truth if you promised me every year, on average, i’d take. Albeit we/I always want more. 🙂

This year has been tough for a few it seems and maybe 2019 is a frustrating correction to last year’s +183 points or so from the Free post and Members ‘Big race/Festival’ tips. This year’s place % in the Festival Tips wasn’t that different to last year- a game of fine margins, esp with my general win only approach.

Anyway, that gives me some confidence while realising I could be doing better – albeit conscious you cannot force bets, which we can all be guilty of at times. As Colin would say such runs and variance in performance over time are another reminder of the need for a ‘betting bank’ /starting small>building up – but aside from that, it’s also a reminder to re-evaluate my approach/thinking, knowing there may be areas for improvement. With that in mind I will pull together another post soon – a kind of ‘chase checklist’ and a reminder of ‘winning traits’ in these races.

As always if you’ve any questions, comments etc, positive or negative/constructive, fire away.

Josh

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. From the last 193 bets I have recorded going back to 25/10/18 your ‘sweet spot’ seems to be the 2m7f-ish + hcp chases (like you don’t know that) priced between the bsp of 3 and 10, aged between 6 and 8. Once you go over about 3m2f it goes a bit wobbly, 2 from 33 I think with a big priced winner (over 35 at BSP I think). But they’re my records and don’t necessarily match yours and to BSP. I’ll try and post your advised prices at some point if you’re interested , I’m in the process of re-building my dashboard at the moment so it’s tricky to get all the details up right now, but you know yourself you have nothing to fear with your approach to your chase eyes!

    1. Thanks Chris, appreciated – I look forward to the completed dashboard, you’ll have to email me any details as and when – your results keeping sounds more in depth than mine- and thus I should probably send you some beers or something.

      So, age… sweet spot 6 -8 or 6-10 ??

      That is for a period when in my mind, my analysis head was all over the place/or in any case spread too thin – from Oct-Feb time I was tipping in too many race types etc I think – time will tell whether the renewed focus improves results. The daily stuff should be averaging 70/80 a year really, and if I get the ‘test’ right that will help. But the place % for all of it are fine and if they stay around 30% or so, i’ve no concerns long term. It is the occasional 16s/20s shot that makes a massive difference to year end, which is why a fast finishing/close 2nd hurts even more. They are hard to find.

      I now leave alone C5 which I think helps, animals generally more unpredictable and they are at that level due to being slow/moderate/not great jumpers.

      Age – again, avoiding the Vets races generally albeit I do take a look, and like to have a stab in the finale – we all know that in general its the younger legs / unexposed or lightly raced (esp in handicaps/not shown full hand to capper even if a few runs etc) / well handicapped – that’s the place to focus

      The 3m2f+ is interesting … no doubt part of that is a need to ponder some improvements / but part of it will also be the nature of the race types – that covers plenty of very competitive races, inc ‘nationals’ , I suspect – albeit your stats may say different – but generally bigger fields maybe, bigger odds selections – and well certainly the likes of the Nationals will depend on me landing on the General Principles 33s, Wayward Princes 33s, Joe Farrells 40s, Takingrisks, 25s etc – so the win % will be lower, losing runs longer etc.
      But maybe there’s some work to do there in the more mundane 26f+ races.

      Part of it is just to keep doing what I am as it will turn if keeping the place % as it is, but I suspect maybe a few things I can think about more systematically in the analysis process.

      I feel i’ve been reading the top of the market better than I have done in the past, knowing when to take them on etc – just a case of then landing on the right ones! I can be better at knowing when to leave a race also and could be more patient at times.

  2. Thurles 2-30. Stylish Moment 9-1 bv 15-2 sky 5 places, still a maiden over hurdles but has won last 2 chasing, looks to be thrown in here to make use of a lowly mark of 104. retains jockey from the 2 wins over fences and if transfering that form to hurdles must have every chance.

  3. Todays tip bit from John Francombe on the impotance of the going,
    ” the going is the biggest single factor in a horse’s performance ”
    Colin

    1. Yep – which may be true, but that’s a useless comment for us punters – he was a very good jockey, one of the best, not necessarily any good at betting… have you seen how well McCoy and Walsh’s tips get on when on ITV/RTV etc!!

      So, the going may be the biggest factor (some would argue, in hncp chases say… stamina / jumping /guts / handicapping /jockeyship etc may be far more important, but that’s an aside)

      The question then is how Colin, are you using such musings to influence your betting?

      Many a pro punter/analyst would say that ‘going’ is given far too much weight in deliberations – in part no doubt because ‘official’ going is often a finger in the air job!

      I say all that in the context of the facts… looking at handicaps since start of 2014…

      55>58% of ALL such races are won by horses that have NEVER won on said official going previously.

      36% (in jumps handicaps , 5140 winners from 16463 total) have NEVER even placed on said official going.

      So, it may well be the biggest factor to John, the question is how we use such thoughts in our punting deliberations, in light of the actual facts etc.

      IF such thoughts lead you to a view point of only ever focusing on proven winners in said official going, that’s fine, but as per the stats above, obv you’re automatically reducing your chances of landing on winners etc – that’s the whole value game, trying to work out if the price allows risk, esp on those unproven in the going, but who by another analysis, you may conclude could relish it etc.

      Josh

  4. Josh not going down the avenue with your alleged facts for no break down on runners how many odds on etc.
    For myself do like a horse that as proven form on the going espicialy heavy or soft, and obviously ever trainer or jockey who comment on the going are clueless, and should look at the facts, do feel Paul Nicholls knows more about his horses and breeding which will act on the going or will not act.
    Never mentioned anything about tipsters ref your McCoy and Walsh do you really believe that they are going to pass on winning tips live on TV on a regular basis? do not think so!
    John Francombe was the most stylist and outstanding jockey ever and doubt very much that anyone will ever match this top class jockey for style and skill in handling the horses poetry in motion, he did compete at a high level at show jumping before becoming a NH jockey and the show jumping put him in my view a class above any other NH jockey so far.
    To say that i do not subscribe to any of these wonderful profit making computer methods,and stats just stick to my simple 5 minute methods for which TIP TOP showed a profit in Oct and is in profit in Nov so far and my subscription service as had 7 winning months out of 10 with Nov at end of play yesterday in profit, so would you kindly show me which one of the computer companies are showing outstanding profits and maybe i would join if proven which is the word always come back too Proven.
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. I don’t know why I bother at times.

      My point to everyone except you, is that ‘just’ focusing on proven winners in official going is ignoring around 55-58% of all handicap winners since 2014, and in jumps – 36% have never even placed on the going. Yes there are generalities in there, no looking at going X or price – but still, said stats in handicaps are significant enough to to just be blinkered to ‘proven’ winners

      People can do whatever they want with those alleged facts.
      Josh

  5. What a sport eh guys
    Only 3 years in me so far
    Thinking I’m getting somewhere only to look at my notes from the previous year and think jeeeez I’m talking rubbish there
    I listen to quite a few podcasts, poss too many, and love the ex jocks comments, especially Ruby Walsh, from looking back Iv found that best to be careful how much you take as gospel
    Nobody knows everything do they, brilliant game tho, love it

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