Members Daily Post: 20/11/19 (complete)

Tip x2 + write ups, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/129, 42p +26.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

#1 2.30 Hex – FINAGHY AYR – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP 14/1, has ran his race, in there pitching until the end, just not good enough.

that’s all for ‘main’ tips, 08.49. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/52,22p, +13.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#2 1.15 Chep – TWASNT THE PLAN – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd, 7/1… ran well, looked threatening all the way and no excuse – Venetia’s handled conditions, was fit, jumped well, and clearly had a fair bit in hand – 9/2>13/2. A decent SP. Still a win for her micro, while i kept up my consistent 2nd or nowhere form! 🙂 TTP keeps finishing 2nd and maybe he has some questions now in that regarded, albeit valid excuses for every run – he could do with settling better still but that’s just him it seems and I doubt he’ll be 8s next time. They should find a weak chase for him and he jumped well there, the best i’ve seen him, handling conditions. 

as of 09.34, that’s all for today.. write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Chepstow

1.15 – Eceparti (micro distance) L I3 9/2  WON 9/2>13/2 

1.45 –

Lord Bryan (m class) 14/1 

Landofsmiles (m class) I3 18/1 S2A UP

3.50 – Colby (m class) 12/1 

 

Hexham

12.50 – Applaus (m going) I3 6/1 

2.30 – Dontdelay (m going) 9/1 

3.30 –

Strike West (m going) H3 16/1 S2A UP

Ex S’elance (m going) 33/1 

Excalibur (m going)    w1 H3 G3 7/2 UP

 

Warwick……..None

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TTP Chase Angles

2.30 Hex – Arizona Bound 20/1 UP

 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers 

V Williams (any odds) 

1.15 Chep – Eceparti 9/2 WON 9/2>13/2 

1.05 Warw – Quick Wave 3/1 2nd 

 

November Trainers 

1.35 Warw – Agent Valdez (33/1< guide)  25/1 UP

1.45 Chep – Good And Hardy (33/1< guide) 7/2 WON 7/2>3/1 

2.20 Chep – Getaway Fred (12/1<) 8/13 WON 11/10 

2.50 Chep – Lamanver Pippin (12/1<) 2/1 WON 2/1>13/8 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

1.15 Chep  -Shanahans Turn 7/1  UP

2.50 Chep – Chimes of Dylan 14/1 UP / De Forgotten One 9/2  UP/ Monbeg Aquadude 12/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catcher 2019/20

1.15 Chep – Twasnt The Plan 2nd

3.10 Warw – Kings Odyssey  9/4 WON 9/4 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

New Tracker Tuesday Post (video review inc BV Gold Cup) HERE>>>

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2.30 Hex –

Finaghy Ayr – an 11 year old who PU LTO isn’t usually the recipe for a ‘solid’ selection but at 10s/11s I thought he was worth a go, given his CD form in heavy…

Firstly he’s 2/8,7p in all heavy ground handicaps, and 0/3,2p over 4m. In March he came a 3L 3rd over CD in ‘identical’ conditions on paper, won by an unexposed 114 horse from the Sherwood yard, with Misfits in front of him – that day, with claims, he was giving Misfits 3lb I think, and today he receives 14lb – IF (and it is an if) both run their race, I thought that weight swing would be enough to finish ahead of Misfits who needs to step forward again – especially as he was out on his feet at the end there, nabbed on the line, but has so much more actual weight on his back today, which may literally weigh him down in this heavy ground. It may not of course but on that formline I couldn’t work out the price difference. Total Assets was behind them that day also and she’s got loads more actual weight on her back – but she does stay well.

FA usually needs his first run and he ran as such LTO albeit maybe it would have been better to see more. However he came into that March race on the back of a PU at Ayr a few weeks before and I can only think this has been the plan. Fox is back on which may indicate as much and the yard are going well. FA also finished a 2L 2nd over this CD, in heavy, in March 2018, splitting a 115 rated horse and the 122 Portrait King at the time.

They have been both aggressive and patient on him previously but I hope Fox doesn’t anchor him too far back, as IF he’s a1, he will just keep galloping and in general he’s a sound jumper. I thought he looked worth a go at 11s and in these heavy ground slogs it can pay to go more with a ‘been there and done it type’ , given the test.

Of the rest…

Well the ‘unexposed’ ones in conditions..

Arizona Bound is interesting to a point albeit his best form is on Good, but his running on effort LTO here over 24f, in heavy, appears to be inspiring some support. Fox can do the weight and I did wonder if he had the choice, having ridden him before. He just has a few too many questions for me but maybe these conditions will transform him. You’re guessing at plenty, even at 18s. But a big run wouldn’t be a shock, given he’s more in the ‘unknown’ category.

As is Don’tdelay who stays well in heavy over hurdles, but was poor on return LTO, even if needing it. This is only his second chase and he didn’t jump that well the first time, and his jockey is inexperienced, esp over fences (she’s good value for her claim over hurdles). 10s just wasn’t big enough and I wanted a more hardier chaser onside.

Nakadam may relish this test but he’s changed yards and fitness is a complete guess, he’s drifting, which hopefully indicates he needs it. But then he also has stamina to prove in conditions. Stays 26f well though.

I was more than happy to take on the rest at their prices…

Misfits I’ve covered- didn’t look overpriced given the big weight on his back but he should run well enough – if he carries it to victory, esp from 10lb higher mark than when 2nd here in March, fair play to him. Total Assets again I can leave at the price, but she does stay well – again a big weight.

I can see the case for Lowanbehold but he is 12 now – he does plod on and has won this race fresh before – but he was out on his feet there and this has loads more depth on paper. I was happy to leave at 11/2 or so but he could run well.

Graystown, Classical Milano and For Jim all have questions in heavy ground, and all have stamina questions- they didn’t look overpriced, esp given all of their best form has been with ‘good’ somewhere in the going really. If one of them handles conditions so be it but their prices were not big enough to roll that dice. A couple have drifted a fair bit in the last two hours.

So, hopefully this has been the plan and mine runs his race.

The annoying big priced one would be Arizona Bound.

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1.15 Chep – Twasn’t The Plan…

8s seemed a bit big – well in any case allowed the play given the niggle over the going. He’s fit, in form, and entered the ‘tracker tuesday notebook’ after his last run, where I thought he’d be worth a go back at a more galloping track. Connections clearly agree and this is the stiffest track he’s run at over fences to date. He ran a decent race at Ffos Las in soft, he travelled through it fine and finished off his race – maybe this is a much softer soft today but at 8s I wanted to have a go – he’s clearly here to run his race to my eyes and if he handles the ground he’s no 8/1 shot in this line up. Charlie Price is a decent pilot also and maybe he’ll get a different tune out of him- the slower pace in this ground may help his jumping etc. I don’t think Fakenham suited LTO, thankfully, as we were on the winner – but I was surprised how close he got given he never really jumped that well, clouting 3 of them. But he’s getting more experience and I thought he looked interesting here.

Of the rest…

Well Love Lane makes sense and is the right fav – but seemed short enough given her jockey is having his first chase ride under rules – but he may be decent enough and has ridden well over hurdles. The mare is also only having her second start over fences and dived out to her left a few times at Worcester – this will take more jumping. I thought she was worth taking on at 7/4, but clearly could win this well enough given the strength of her form.

The rest had plenty of questions.

Venetia isn’t going quite as well as you’d like still, and you’d expect more support for hers. He is unexposed and won a chase in France – but on Good ground, which is rare for one of hers – his best form last year was in better ground – I could’t say 9/2 looked overpriced but he’s unexposed. I’d be more interested if CD was on though, albeit obv he can’t ride in this race.

The Brothers… now 0/15, 1p and shipped out of Tizzards – he did run well on stable debut LTO but i’ve a niggle over his attitude under pressure – he carries his head a bit high and doesn’t look up for a scrap that often, if at all. It could be there’s nothing near him today and that isn’t a concern, but 11/2 didn’t seem big enough to me given those questions. I’m not sure a chaser leaving Tizzards is ever a great sign.

The other three have far too many questions for me to contemplate. The two Evan William’s horses haven’t shown enough recently and neither has Shanahan’s Turn, with no win since he was 7, 13 starts ago. Just a few too many questions for the now 11 year old. In a race like this i’d want to side with younger legs but if he’s a1, and runs his race, he could be thereabouts.

Pace…well they can be very patient on mine – in part maybe that’s been to try and teach him to race/settle/jump – maybe they will try mixing it up here but in any case those more patiently ridden do ok here and he has shown speed between his fences, relatively.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Nearly backed Smooth Stepper last night in the Vets race 3.10 Warwick thought 9/1 with Betfair big
    Theatre Guide the form pick but if SS has been redied he’s a good horse well Hcpd and should go well here
    Was guna wait to see any1s thoughts in here cus im out of form

      1. best of luck Ryan, as always – i was happy to just sit out and watch! – SS being backed though so you may be onto a live one – needs to show much more than he has recently I thought, inc for new connections – but everything in that race has questions galore, most over wellbeing!
        I think the fav should win if staying – we were on him LTO where he ran a cracker- did shape as if worth a go over further now older but 5/2 is short enough to find out – as he may not stay.
        I wouldn’t fall of my seat if any of them won this. GL

  2. Hex’ 12.50 Monfass………….. 8.0 NFH
    Hex’ 2.00 Strength Of Mind.. 9.0 NH
    Chep’ 2.50 Fortesque………… 9.0 NFH

    Nothing of interest for me tonight.

  3. Racing Post just had a look at the daily price of this, and astounded at what they charge for their poor tipsters including Pricewise who will not record there results which surley tells us something.
    Do not know if they charge more for Saturdays paper, so my figures are worked out at
    £3.20 x 364 days = £1164.80.
    You can find everything on racing from different sites on the computer for free, and so avoid their poor tipsters and what a betting bank you have by not buying the Racing Post daily.
    Colin.

    1. I’m not sure people pay daily/subscribe just (or at all) for their tipsters! 🙂 Well I don’t – but you can get full access to everything, inc the daily paper on tablet, for I forget, £300 odd a year – but depends if you like reading the editorial/all the articles, and I use it for video analysis etc also. Some may just buy on Saturday’s or the weekender (you get access to everything for that subs fee online) – the tipping editorial is interesting, the likes of Paul Kealy always worth a read.
      But certainly spending £3.20 per day, every day, isn’t the way to do it! 🙂
      That daily figure is pricey enough mind I suppose.

  4. Agreed up to a point Colin although I find the spotlight horse by horse comments excellent and integral to my analysis. These are, of course, available via Bet 365 and GeeGeez so I have no need to buy the RP and certainly would not do so for their tipping.

    Not sure about your logic re having a bigger betting bank by not buying RP, I don’t smoke or have a Ferrari either so my bank must be enormous 🙂

  5. Anyone doing ATR’s The Tote Ten to Follow ? thinking of having a go just trying to work out tactics maybe 5 going for big money races and 5 that will run plenty of races, any thoughts? could be a bit of fun.

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