Micro Monday: 18/11/19

Some jockey pointers >>>

 

In this week’s article I’ve taken a brief look at a couple of jumps jockeys who’s efforts over the weekend provided a timely reminder as to their abilities >>>

Charlie Deutsch

Charlie was seen to good effect again over the weekend, especially in the Cross Country chase but also on Archille and Belami Des Pictons, who he somehow got into the places after suffering interference early on. Hopefully they keep him sound as he’s clearly go more chases in him. Obviously Charlie is stable jockey to Venetia Williams and as such her horses /methods/race planning etc will affect his performance, but there’s still a few pointers to keep in mind when assessing his chase rides >>>

Looking at his record since the start of 2017, in all handicap chases (inc Novice handicaps)

272 bets / 47 wins / 104p / 17% sr / +28 SP / +67 BFSP / AE 1.13

Odds

  • 9/1>20/1 SP: 91 bets / 6 wins / 26p / 7% sr / -5 SP / +12 BFSP / AE 0.86
  • 22/1+ SP: 0/15,1p

Looking at all those sent off 17/2 or shorter SP

166 bets / 41 wins / 77p / 25% sr / +48 SP / +69 BFSP / AE 1.2

17/2< SP pointers (handicaps/chases/2017>) >>>

  • Age 8+ : 98 bets / 26 wins / 46p / 27%s r / +51 SP / +67 BFSP / AE 1.4
  • Races restricted to 5yo+ and 10yo+: 115 bets / 34 wins / 56p / 30% sr / +60 SP / +77 BFSP / AE 1.38
  • 3m+ : 71 bets / 21 wins / 33p / 30% sr / +57 SP / +71 BFSP / AE 1.69
  • Class 1 +2: 30 bets /12 wins / 16p / 40% sr / +44 SP / +51 BFSP / AE 2.29
  • NOT Venetia Williams (his boss) : 34 bets / 8 wins / 17p / 25% sr / +13 SP / +18 BFSP / AE 1.28

 

Front Runners >>>

In the last two years on all handicap chasers that ‘led’ : 22 bets / 7 wins / 10p / 32% sr / +10 SP

*

 

Jamie Moore

Jamie’s never say die ride on One Of Us was another timely reminder of his expertise on stayers – especially those who need plenty of active, forceful riding. Maybe it’s no coincidence that this horse’s best two runs have come when ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies and now Jamie Moore. Extreme trips have obviously transformed him also and at his level there can’t be many more dour stayers. He proved he handled testing ground, much to my annoyance.

Looking at the stats it’s fair to say Jamie Moore has the best record of any rider over trips of 3m3f+, in handicap chases. (2014>) Especially when you consider no. or winners, win SR and profit to SP. It’s about time I started to remember his prowess in this sphere as anything he’s riding in such conditions should be marked up. In hindsight his booking on this horse was significant and a great move by connections >>>

42 bets / 11 wins / 12p / 26% sr / +107 SP / +139 BFSP / AE 2.78

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. And another today for Jamie Moore, Cheque en Blanc didn’t see it until I saw it had won. How does his figures compare when riding for his father against other trainers Josh?

    1. Yep, I looked last night at the race obv but was around 3s so always tricky, not sure that’s ever a massive price in a 3m4f slog! But he’s won it well enough come the line and he had won race last year.

      He’s 1/5 before today for Gary – ridden winners for 8 different trainers, 16 in total. The winner at Fontwell was his first ride for Nick Williams. Those stats/variety of connections give weight to fact his booking may be more significant in such races – not a case of it being an afterthought/him picking up spares etc.

      Josh

  2. The trouble with these stats is that if you look at all the qualifiers you’ll see nearly all the big priced horses @ +20/1 occurred in 2017 and before which devalues them somewhat. It’s always worth checking the spread of prices over time to see if they look like continuing, in this case I’d say unlikely. Trimming the sp to 20/1 and below still returns a good profit though, just makes the micro even more micro!

    1. We view things like this very differently I think, come from a different place.
      The numbers are too small to be chopping and changing and the logic of this angle (as useful info not necessarily to just back blind which seems to be your main reasoning and not my purpose in this example) rests in Jamie’s ability to time, galvanise, judge pace, get them jumping and his all action strong style no doubt.
      Hence the spread of prices in that sense doesn’t matter too much. Of more importance is the spread of trainers/horses, putting even more eight on fact it’s his ability. And also why I wouldnt ‘just’ focus on those moving up in distance… As that’s more to do with the trainers methods etc.

      Given the nature of the angle/the logic, I’m not sure why you’d want to ignore the big priced ones? I don’t think it’s a case of him just getting lucky etc.

      There are not many ‘qualifiers’ but every horse he rides over 3m3f+ in hncp chases should clearly be looked at very closely. That’s the simple take away from those musings and was their purpose 🙂

  3. I wouldn’t say he was getting lucky on the big priced ones either, more of a market recognition these days perhaps or trainers recognising his abilities and putting him on ones with more obvious chances. Yes we do approach this differently, but I see your point and approach with the Charlie Deutsch one as that appears slightly fuzzier to me!

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