Members Daily post: 17/11/19 (complete:10.13)

Tip x2 + write ups, Section 2 (complete), test zone, Greatwood pointers

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/128, 42p +27.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

#1 2.40 Font – THE CALLER – 1 point win – 6/1 (boyle) 11/2 (BV/UniB) 5/1 (others) PU, never travelling.

#2 1.15 Chelt – KINGSWELL THEATRE – 1 point win – 5/1 (Bet365) 9/2 (WH/UniB/BV)  UP, no excuse, has led/run his race, just not good enough this time. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.59, write ups at bottom of post…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/51,21p, +14.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Fontwell

2.40 – Chasma (HcCh) ES+ H1 I3 8/1 S3A# UP

 

Cheltenham……..None

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

November Trainers 

12.55 Font – Battle of Ideas (12/1<) 11/4

4.00 Chelt – Brief Ambition 8s/ Stoners Choice 18s (33/1<)

 

Chase Eye-Catcher 2019/20 

12.45 Chelt – Electorn Bleu (over hurdles)

2.40 Font – Captain Cattistock 5/2

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle

Stats/Trends Pointers > 

Looking at those aged 4 or 5, 0-2 runs prev 90 days, 0-3 places (inc wins) in handicap h, Top 5 LTO.. leaves 11/66, 21p (from last 15 renewals) , leaving 7…

Monsieur Lecog / Quel Destin / Quoi De Neuf / Monsieur DArque / Zanza / Gumball / Torcello

Trainers (to have won race with runners) 

  • Quel Destin /
  • Humble Hero / Monsieur D Arque / Mohaayed
  • Zanza / Gumball
  • Harambe

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Write ups…

The Caller…

I can’t work out why he isn’t 3/1 in this line up – he just looks overpriced to my eyes but maybe i’ll find out soon enough why he isn’t shorter – his win LTO was a career best on RPRs and it’s probably no coincidence that it coincided with his first go at a marathon trip in soft ground. It was 128 and he races here off 122 after the rise, giving me hope there’s more to come, from a ‘capping perspective.

This could be hard work but that race proved he stays and will handle the ground- he also had a grinding victory in heavy in a maiden hurdle at Plumpton – LTO he jumped well, travelled just off the pace > he sped down the hill once he got rolling, pinged the last, and pulled away as if he’d just jumped in – you don’t expect marathon chasers to finish off a race like that. I’ve no doubt he’s still well handicapped in such conditions. Tom O’Brien knows him and is one of the ‘go to’ jockeys for the yard – 4/14,6p in handicaps in the last year for example. He’s also placed twice in this race when riding for Tizzard. I’d prefer Bowen on but there’s no reason at the prices to be put off. There’s always a chance a race like LTO takes it out of them but visually he didn’t seem to have a hard race.

I just thought he looked solid – he stays, he jumps, he will track the pace, handle the ground, doesn’t have to lug around a big weight, is fit, in form, and is lightly raced but now with experience – there’s more to come in these regional nationals.

Now, he could bump into something that stays equally as well but has more class, or even more in hand…

If there is one opponent in here who will do that, it’s the fav, Captain Cattistock – I didn’t think 5/2 was overpriced, given he does have to prove he stays, and in this ground. Connections clearly feel he will relish it – but the likes of that Uttoxeter chase pose questions- his jumping was scratchy over the last 3 and he emptied out quickly in the last furlong or so – this will be a test here and in this ground, up this hill, it always seems to be really hard work, slow motion stuff. He’s 11-9 to carry after the claim. He is unexposed, he ran well on his return at Wincanton (it looked ‘interesting’ – but he may have just blown up/jockey looked after him) and if he stays in this ground, he is the right fav given his profile/form. But he’s not bombproof and I thought they’d be targeting a more valuable race than this, but maybe this has been the early season plan. They must think he could be a ‘National’ horse in time. He is only 6 also, and clearly more to come. But I wanted to take him on at 5/2.

The Two Amigos – well he’s 8lb higher than his Plumpton win, which was only ‘ok form’ and he cut out quickly enough on his return LTO -but he may have badly needed it and this has no doubt been the plan. But under 12-1 in testing ground, at 3s – well I can take him on also.

Those two should toe this field along and may hopefully do too much.

IF the Caller runs his race, I saw no reason why Chasma would overturn the form.

Shanroe Santos is 10 and has never won fresh over fences – he’s got some solid form but at 11/2 I couldn’t touch – he’s open to attack from younger legs and i’m educated guessing as to fitness.

I can’t see Invincible Cave winning.

That leaves One of Us – who is interesting, but has a serious going questions. He stays, and he stays some more – but he’s generally been kept away from soft+. As such it’s more an ‘unknown’ than saying he won’t handle it – he may relish it, but I’m guessing there – and 6s wasn’t big enough for me to roll that going dice. He may not find this track ideal either, and could get outpaced at times. But, if he handles the going, he won’t be done for stamina.

I thought it was between the Fav and the selection – with any luck mine overhauls him over the last couple.

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Kingswell Theatre –

I thought he deserved to be joint Fav in this race, the race he won in 2017 (beating the Fav by 6 1/4 L, getting 4lb more off him than that race). This is only his 5th run since which does pose some questions, but also indicates to me that this will have been the plan and he will be here to run the race of his season. He had a good prep at Sedgefield where he led for a long time, before getting tired approaching the last. Tom Scu jumps back on and made all with him in 2017s renewal – looking at the pace maps I think there’s every chance he gets an easy lead again. He seemingly came alive around here then and didn’t put a foot wrong. If he travels/jumps like that again the rest could really be in trouble here. Course form is massive around this XCountry track, and given he can slog it through soft also, and his running style, I thought 9/2 was overpriced.

The French horse is a clear danger but he’s now 11 and is having his first run for a while- he has gone well fresh but isn’t getting any younger and IF Kingswell ran as he did when winning this in 2017, i saw no reason he’d overturn the form. When the selection ran in this year’s March showpiece that was his first run in 400+ days.

The rest have a few questions, esp in what could be testing enough ground (albeit I think the X Country always rides better than the main track, so it may not be horrendous) –

Fact of The Matter – he has course form but a fitness question, but this has no doubt been the plan also, for his inform yard- the big question is the ground – I have to assume this is soft, or there is no good in it – and he is a good ground horse, on all the evidence. As such 6s didn’t seem overpriced. He could flounder. If he doesn’t and he runs his race, clearly he will go well.

Chic Name has some questions at this level I think -he did go too hard LTO on his return (deliberately so maybe) and maybe this has been the plan also – but i have stamina questions around here, in this ground- the selection is a stronger stayer for me – BUT he does have experience of the course, so I can see why some would fancy him. His jockey doesn’t know him that well, and didn’t ride him around here, which would niggle me also. I can leave him at 7s but a big run wouldn’t be a shock, at least until they turn in.

Tea For Two – well he looks gone at the game and if he takes this than fair play to him. I can’t touch him at 8s, esp as he UR on his one go around here.He must still show something at home and he is being nibbled at, but i’d want to see much more.

Then we are onto the horses who I believe have yet to run over the course, in public anyway. They may have all had a potter around at some point.

I tipped Rolling Dylan LTO and he PU in teh slop, it would be typical for him to now bolt up here! His jumping has been scratchy under rules at times. The course is a question, as is stamina. I can leave him even at 14s. But Hobbs knows what is needed for these fences – maybe he’s one for these races in future, if going well here – but hopefully not too well!

I like course form on this Xcountry track an if one takes it without it, fair play to them and connections. Rolling Dylan would be rather annoying, but logically I can’t tip him.

Pace – Kingswell should try and lead, but in any case will be in the right spot – if Scudamore can dictate, even better -and i’m hoping he will, esp if his jumping is as good as when winning here. He can slow it down, then kick turning for home, ping the last 8l clear, job done 🙂

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

9 Responses

  1. Lucy Gardiner’s 2 rides at Fontwell may well be worth a look at especially Bredon Hill Lad in the 3-45, the other is Trans Express 2-05.

  2. Lambourn trainers:

    Hendo – he likes Countister of his two in the 3.00, although Barry Geraghty has picked his other runner in the race. So each way. He thinks Time Flies By has promise but may be too short in the 4.00.

    Jamie Snowden – he says that Pacify is in good shape for the 3.30 and so is a win bet.

    Nothing else well spoken of really.

  3. I am doing a piece of work for another site in regard to tipsters and their performance at Cheltenham (all meetings and the festival only) over a period of five years. I am struggling to find someone who has been reasonably successful over that period. It is not me certainly as I usually struggle at the course. I have not has a bet at the course since the festival in March. I will have a go through the card later as I always do just to try to understand what it takes to pick winners there. I also analyse the results of each race to see how I could have come up with the winner?
    If anyone has any thoughts on this or knows of anyone who does well at Cheletenham, can they comment or email me

    Good luck.

    1. Matin, tut tut now 🙂 I don’t wish this members’ club/ to be used to discuss/gather views on other tipsters when it’s helping you do work for another site!! That isn’t appropriate for here. As an aside my long term Festival record isn’t too shabby!

      A discussion on ‘how to find Cheltenham winners’ or whatever is obviously fine. I should do more engagement pieces on such topics as there’s plenty of views to tap into out there no doubt.

      Your ‘through the card’ – so you’re not backing any of them with your own money, more a test for yourself? Not even Fact of The Matter who you’ve tipped elsewhere Ante Post?

      My view with ‘tests’ etc is that you should have some money on, even if small – as that financial ‘investment’ makes it real, esp mentally, and get’s more ‘puzzle solving’ buy in. But that’s just me.

      1. I do not need to back them but i take your point. I did back fact Of The Matter so as to have Skin In The Game. My 13/2 went as low as 4/1 in the week and is now 6/1!

        I take your point about other tipsters. I was not trying to direct your members to somewhere else, although you are not a tipping site strictly.
        It would be good to have some discussion topics on the site with input from members as it does now favour guys putting up tips every day.

        Anyway, good luck to you all.

        1. Oh I know it wasn’t intentional but hopefully you can see my point of view on that front .

          I do think ‘skin in the game’ does help focus the analytical mind.

          Yep – that ‘how to be better bettors’ is probably the last missing content piece I wish to add and i’ll ponder that – obv so many areas we could cover, that I can kick off, with them some discussion in comments.

          Bol today, as always.
          Josh

  4. COLINS BETS
    ORIGINAL
    TIP TOP

    No bets today, surprise, surprise bloody raining again decided to start building an Ark!!
    Colin

  5. had a good look at the 12-45,1-15 and 3-00 at Cheltenham.
    12-45. what a minefield just about every runner has as many negatives as positives , Duc De Beauchene is probably a worthy favourite but i can’t back him at the price, clutching at straws the only other runner that looks interesting is Volcano who has shown the odd bit of good form without getting his nose in front, this is his first run for new stable and if the change of scenery has perked him up getting in the frame is not out of the question. small ew @ 20-1.
    1-15.again Urgent De Gregaine looks a fair enough favourite but not for me at 3-1, i did look at Tea For Two and Dawson City but neither looked worth the risk , was going to give it a miss but have had a few quid on Josh’s selection.
    3-00. many in with chances and i did consider both Quel Distin and Gumball but ended up with Harambe who i think is better than his 7th lto to Thyme Hill in the Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1), has won in soft ground and 18-1 4 places could be worth a dabble. I will be having a small ew on top weight Mohaayed 33-1 no rhyme or reason i know it’s silly but sometimes you just take a liking to a horse.

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