Members Daily Post: 16/11/19 (complete:10am)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/126, 42p +29.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

#3 1.50 Chelt – POTTERS LEGEND – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/SB/BetS/PP) UP, ran ok, but only that, albeit nothing beating winner on the day.

as of 09.02 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/51,21p, +14.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

2.25 Cheltenham 

#1 US AND THEM – 1 point win – 11/1 (betfS) 10/1 (PP/BV) (12.00 BetfX) UP, poor. Had good early position but steadily lost it through final circuit.

#2 BRELAN DAs – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/BV) 22/1 (UniB) 20/1 (SB/WH) (27.00 BetfX) 2nd, neck – no excuses, he’s run a cracker, hasn’t missed a beat and he’s stayed – winner hasn’t missed a beat either, another day that result is the other way round but that’s racing and fine margins. She’s toughed that out best. And in reality they were prob both lucky in that Slate House looked a big danger. 

as of 08.42

That’s all for today, x3 tips, write ups at bottom…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Wetherby

1.40 – Sakhee’s City (all Hc’s,HcH) H3 I3 5/1  WON 5/1>7/2 

2.15 – Catamaran Du Seuil (all Hc’s) I3 G3 7/2 UP

3.20 –

Yccs Portocervo (all Hc’s) w2 8/1 UP

Zig Zag (all Hc’s,HcH) 25/1 S2A UP

 

Cheltenham and Uttoxeter………..None

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TTP Chase Micros

2.25 C – Count Meribel (any) UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

V Williams 

2.25 C – Belami Des Pictons  12/1 4th 

C Longsdon (12/1<)

1.20 Uttox – Diger Daudaie  

 

November Trainers

12.05 C – LAir Du Vent (12/1<) 6/1 DNQ

1.15 C – Rockpoint (12/1<) 12/1 2nd

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

2.25 C – Springtown Lake (14/1<) 11/1 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

1.50 C – Potters Legend (9/1<) 8/1 UP

2.25 C – Mercian Prince (9/1<)50/1 DNQ

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Cheltenham Stats/Trends HERE>>>

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BetVictor Gold Cup

Stats/Trends

The stats don’t help too much with shortlisting but a profile of… 0-1 runs last 90 days, 0-2 runs this season, 20< career runs, 1+ run at track, 10> runs in handicaps, 0-3 handicap wins, 0-2 handicap chase wins… leaves 14/101, 31p in the last 15 years, +44 BFSP >>> That only helps ‘remove’ 8 , leaving >>>

Slate House / Spirit of The Games / Us And Them / Count Meribel / Sprintown Lake / Magic Saint / Highway One O One / Brelan Das / Warthog / Dell Oro 

Trainers (those to have won race/with runners)

  • Count Meribel / Splash Of Ginge
  • Eamon An Cnoic / Warthog
  • Magic Saint / Brelan DAs
  • Belami Des Pictons
  • Dell Oro

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Write Ups…

Potters Legend –

I wanted to take a chance on him at 8s which I thought looked a few points too big – clearly he has a couple of questions to answer given how long he had off and whether he retains that ability. There’s also a chance he may ‘bounce’ but he had a decent enough return to action here in October. This horse just gallops and stays, usually races prominently and at his best is a sound jumper. His old form is very good, inc a 2L 4th in the Kim Muir of 2017, off 139, when he just stayed on. This slower ground/trip/track should be right up his street – I think if he runs his race he’d go close to winning this, so at 8s I’ll roll the dice, especially with nothing on his back which may help in this. The CP also return and every indication is that this has been the plan.

Of the rest… well Pipe has a poor record in this (0/14,1p) and Ramses has to lug 11-12 around, which he may get away with – obv he stays very well and handles conditions but he is on a career high mark and needs to improve. West Approach has stamina to prove and i’m not sure he wants a slog, and he had a hard race when last seen. He’s clearly a bit tricky and possibly can’t be in front for too long either. I didn’t want to wade in at 4s, albeit he may well take this. Pop Rockstar I had niggles over, especially the level of his form – well his last race was mediocre enough – and again he has stamina to prove in conditions. Another on a career high, he needs to step forward again. The Curtis and Williams horses have enough questions in a race like this.

That leaves Big River who I can leave at 9/2 – were he 8s+, in a bigger field, in these conditions I may have gone with him, but that doesn’t seem overpriced. I think he needs a strong gallop to aim at as he can get behind and he can hit a fence or three. He does go well fresh so fitness shouldn’t be a problem and he shapes as if 3m3f in soft/heavy around here will be ideal. He’s threatened to take a big pot when it all falls right but his jumping needs to sharpen up.

Pace/race positioning wise… Potters should race on/near the front end. There shouldn’t be an excuse in this line up and if he’s back to anywhere near his best, he will just keep plugging away.

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Betvictor Gold Cup…

Us And Them…

He just has a different profile to everything else, given it’s his first run in a handicap having been running in decent G1s as a Novice, and his return LTO. It’s annoying that Saint C is out as that’s pushed the weights up – 11-12 are 0/19,6p in this race, however they are 0/6,4p in the last 5 years (2 joint 11-12) and four have them have been beaten under 4L, a couple going very close. They all had higher marks as well and could be deemed as more ‘exposed’. He looks a big horse and I don’t think the weight will be a problem, nor will the ground. Of course he has stamina to prove also but he’s long shaped as if he may relish 2m4f and he ran well LTO – he may have needed that but in any case he’s spent most of his chasing life in and around 155+ horses. He made a mistake at the last there which cost him second but he still stayed on ok. He does just have a different profile to anything in this and at 10s I thought that was just about big enough to have a go. I’ve no doubt he’s better than a 152 horse, it’s just a case of when he shows it. Maybe he’s one for a fast run Grand Annual or something but he’s got a nice race or two in him this season.

Brelan D’As…

Well a poke but I wanted to have one in this race and my pin landed on him – i’ve tipped him before I think and i’ve long thought he’s got a decent handicap in him when it all clicks together. He’s lightly raced for his age and this ‘could’ be his season to land something – he is a horse who’s long looked a tad tripless – outpaced/staying on efforts over 16f+, including his 3rd in last season’s Grand Annual. He ran in the 2m4f handicap chase here in Jan, one of those that Siruh Du Lac won, beaten 18l – there’s a 17lb swing here, but he also over-raced through that, in the hood, and was very awkward at two out – it looks very strange when watching it. In any case, he has enough good efforts to make me think he’s worth a go. He may well relish this ground and he’s nothing on his back which could help. There is a doubt whether he will fully get up the hill but he’s 25s, not 6s, and he ran well at Newbury over 2m6f last season, and hacked up over 20f in a hurdle at Wincanton a few years back. This race could also set up perfectly for him as there is a fair bit of pace on paper at least. Hopefully he has a clear round – he can be sloppy at one or two but that was his first UR LTO, which may be a blessing in disguise as he didn’t have a hard race there but was going well – but he’s usually solid enough, esp at this price. He’s on the stats ‘shortlist’ and he trained by Mr Saturday Chase Trainer (along with Tizzard)

Of the rest…

Well – in truth I part deliberated leaving the race and maybe i’ll regret doing so – it was starting to give me a headache. You can pick holes in every horse in this line up – they all have a niggle/something to prove really, and thus it’s then a question of price.

I could go through every horse but I won’t bother – clearly I won’t fall off my seat if one of the top 3 wins but they all have a question or two in the context of being 7s< . Count Meribel is interesting.

Of the bigger priced ones… well Guitar Pete is solid but I thought something will have more in hand here, but he could run a big race – as could Happy Diva but 12s couldn’t tempt me in – she is what she is and again I thought something may be better treated. Solid though.

The ‘sickeners’ will be the two Pipe horses – I was close to Eamon An Cnoic – in the end, at 14s gen, I concluded that in this ground he may not fully see the trip out, up the hill. If he does stay he will go close and he may look the winner at some stage. He will appreciate this ground. He also doesn’t have a fresh (seasonal debut) winning record over fences, which niggled at me. Albeit the Pipes can ready one for a chase, and one around here. Warthog is interesting also but he has a stamina q (he was out on his feet at the end of that Sandown race) and there’s niggles about his jumping around here. I didn’t think he’d get an easy lead either. But he’s unexposed/had a wind op, and if he gets into a rhythm on the front end he could out-run his odds.  I’ll live with ny of the other 16s+ jobbies winning.

You really can make a case for most of these and it will very much be who runs their race, gets luck in running and jumps etc. It’s as tricky as puzzle solving gets in this game to my eyes – cue Siruh winning by 5l!

Pace wise… there’s 4 or 5 who can get on with it and i don’t think it will be run at a crawl. Hopefully Us An d Them can just lob along behind the pace – Barry may be further back, but he needs cover to settle I think and will hopefully come with a late rattle!

Good luck with whatever you fancy.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • Have I gone mad? Is Siruh Du Lac bomb proof, well, bullet proof…..ok a very worthy favourite? I think he’s so worthy he’s value. I haven’t seen a favourite like this for a long time, if he runs his race he gets placed at least. Almost free money…..getting eggs ready.

    handbag 16/11/19 5:35 AM Reply


    • Who knows what the ground is like?? Seem to be conflicting reports. Nothing is bomb proof there today. keep your stakes down and look for a few upsets.

      martin colwell 16/11/19 10:23 AM Reply


      • Looking at my list for this afternoon Martin and I think I’m counting on a few upsets. Can’t beat a little chaos when you’re playing the long end.

        Tim Hanson 16/11/19 11:43 AM Reply


    • hmm – well he is 9lb higher than for his win LTO, 1st run back, in testing ground, big weight, Lizzy may be rusty, etc – I didn’t think 7s was screaming win value but if he runs his race he’d be in the places – and if you can be in the places, you can win. He does need to step forward an improve again, which he’s entitled to do – and maybe he will turn into a graded horse this season, or better than a handicapper anyway. best of luck.

      Josh 16/11/19 10:27 AM Reply


  • short of time so just a list of what i’ve backed, just small bets mainly.
    Cheltenham.
    1-15. Wholestone
    1-50, Big River
    2-25. Siruh de Lac, Happy Diva
    Wetherby.
    1-05. Alberts Back
    2-15. Catamaran Du Seuil
    3-20. Aristo Du Plessis, As De Mee

    martin whittle 16/11/19 8:22 AM Reply


    • whoops,C3-00. Vieux Lion Rouge, As De Mee

      martin whittle 16/11/19 8:24 AM Reply


  • iv just backed Us and Them in the bet victor
    Agree with Handbag Siruh du Lac absolutely has to be right up there and tempted to do the forecast. You know exactly how Siruhdu Lac going to run and has done it at the track twice
    Just think Us and Them could be too good for this field, both 6 year olds so both could improve but with the company it’s been running against thinking Us and Them could end up the better horse
    Obvious concern is the ground and just how bad it’s going to be

    Ryan Mercer 16/11/19 8:42 AM Reply


  • Count Merribel-Cheltenham 14:25 1pt e/w-9/1-I thought this one was the horse which was most likely to have loads in hand. Won here at this meeting last year beating a subsequent festival winner in a novice chase over course and distance despite making a bad blunder before being highly tried in graded company. Returned with a excellent second in a Carlisle race which is by far and away the best trial for this losing by 2L to a 160 horse and finishing 9L ahead of a 156 horse. November is the time to catch him with 4 wins and 2 seconds from 6 starts. He was second over 3 miles at the track over hurdles so we know he is a doer stayer. Should be able to race prominently just off the pace.
    Siruh du Lac Cheltenham 14:25 1pt e/w 8/1-I agree that this one looks extremely solid. I think all the conditions are fine and he won fresh last year and I was watching back his festival win and he just jumped so well and I don’t think ever looked in any sort of trouble ahead of the horse which than won the Haldon Cup. There is every chance he hasn’t reached his ceiling and can defy the rise in weights.
    Trainer is in excellent form and clearly this has been the plan.
    Master of Irony Wetherby 15:20 1pt e/w-12/1-I thought this one was interesting given he is back to his last winning mark at the same track he has won at in the past and has a headgear change. Cook was an eye-catching booking given he has an excellent record for the trainer which has improved in recent years and they have gone 122211 since the start of 2018. Trainer is also flying with 2 wins from his last 3 starts. Should go well.

    NickM 16/11/19 8:47 AM Reply


    • Siruh should be 7/1 even

      NickM 16/11/19 8:54 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    ORIGINAL
    TIP TOP
    No bets today
    Colin

    cleafe 16/11/19 9:25 AM Reply


  • Hi Nick…. just picked up your reply off yesterday’s page.

    ‘That would be terrible Tim. You’re better of taking the missus to bingo than a week of amateur racing!’

    I couldn’t agree more with the sentiment Nick, but I never said I would be betting on it. 😉

    Tim Hanson 16/11/19 9:58 AM Reply


    • Well that’s just torture mate. May as well give them all a week off and a break for everyone.

      NickM 16/11/19 10:06 AM Reply


  • Going to Cheltenham today, so, have to be quick..
    Really fancy a couple but, no write ups sorry, just about to get a bus to the course.
    12:40
    Nordano
    13:15
    Minella Warrior
    13:50
    Potters Legend
    14:25
    Spiritofthegames
    Us and Them
    15:00
    Smackwater Jack
    15:30
    Treasure Dillon

    Good luck and safe journey to all horses and jockeys.

    Stewart 16/11/19 10:03 AM Reply


  • AW T/T

    No selections today.
    Yesterday’s only runner of the 2 listed was 3rd at 4/1.

    Mike

    mickeydee 16/11/19 10:18 AM Reply


  • through the card at Cheltenham:

    Firstly keep your stakes down whatever you back as it looks very hard today.

    12.05 IK Brunel – exciting prospect and Thyme Hill is too short.
    12.40 Prefontaine – for the Jonjo’s. Open race, improving type.
    1.15 Minella Warrior – and exciting prospect over fences.
    1.50 Big River – NAP of the day for 2 points win at 4/1. Down from Scotland and will go in soft/heavy if it gets that way. Must be fit, otherwise why have they brought him down?
    2.25 Magic Saint – went off a favourite at the festival and is well thought of. May not be fully fit though.
    3.00 – Hear No Evil – had a pipe opener for the Skeltons and they will have him ready to go here.
    3.30 – Treasure Dillon – Very open this one. had a run and off bottom weight.
    4.00 – It’s Probably Me – Good luck with this race. Tentative stab at a horse that has run well in both his races to date.

    Good luck today.

    martin colwell 16/11/19 11:13 AM Reply


  • Chel’ 12.05 Happygolucky………….. 9.0 NH
    Punc’ 12.15 Popong………………….10.0 NH
    Weth’ 1.40 Applaus…………………. 9.0 NFH
    Weth’ 2.15 The Dubai Way…………. 8.0 NFH
    Uttox’ 3.05 Briery Bunny…………… 9.0 NFH
    Weth’ 3.20 Yccs Portocervo………. 11.0 NFH

    No evening tonight

    Tim Hanson 16/11/19 11:36 AM Reply


  • US (us us us us us us) and THEM (them them them them them them)
    and after all……
    we’re only ordinary men. (men men men men men men)

    😉 Can’t beat a bit of culture on a busy Saturday!

    Tim Hanson 16/11/19 11:48 AM Reply


    • Ha!

      Gerald Finnegan 16/11/19 12:37 PM Reply


    • Excellent reference Tim. Epic tune

      Cheers

      Ben

      921389 16/11/19 1:12 PM Reply


  • Great ride by Adam Nicol on Sakhees City, no money on it but a joy to watch

    handbag 16/11/19 1:49 PM Reply


    • Hats off to Robbie Power too on West Approach

      handbag 16/11/19 2:03 PM Reply


      • What a ride!Robbie has had his critics from the armchair jockeys last year and must say the ride on West Approach was TOP CLASS.
        My only bet of the day and was put up at 4/1 on the subscription service.
        Happy days
        Colin

        cleafe 16/11/19 2:10 PM Reply


        • A top service as well Colin

          handbag 16/11/19 2:12 PM Reply


  • posted yesterday.
    sat in waiting for the gas man to come and service boiler and fire so have had time to look at tomorrow’s Gold Cup (if meeting goes ahead), the withdrawal of Saint Calvados leaves 19 in at the moment in a high class field.
    An argument could be made for many but i have come down on the side of Happy Diva should be available at around 16-1 and i’ll wait till after midnight to get bog.
    Happy Diva always seems to run her race , she came second to Guitar Pete by 3.5l on her seasonal reappearance but is 4lb better off and the softer ground should suit her more. should come on for that race and with most bookies paying 5 places looks a solid ew bet.

    Martin Whittle 15/11/19 10:33 AM
    get in, my biggest bet of the day a happy chappy again 🙂

    martin whittle 16/11/19 2:49 PM Reply


    • Yep, top picking, well done.

      Josh 16/11/19 2:58 PM Reply


  • Nice one Martin I was on thanks to you and a lot of greens on Gee Geez!

    Mark Curtis 16/11/19 3:12 PM Reply


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