Members Daily Post: 15/11/19 (complete)

Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/125, 42p +30.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None – fairly poor racing tomorrow with Cheltenham off, I’ve had a flick through and am happy to sit out. It will give me some time to ponder, as I often do. 

I had a look back at Walt, as I do every winner at a price I wasn’t that close to. Stewart tipped him when winning that G3 at Kempton from memory -and that was only a few runs ago. Solid form, esp in context of this race – if he got back to that level he was entitled to compete/win. He was only 1lb higher here, drop in class, a CD winner. He has benefitted from mine and the Nicholls horse seemingly going too hard – that probably makes the losing distance for both look worse than the bare result (not a reason for their defeats mind)- with that in mind the question with Walt was whether he was in-form or not -i’ve probably made too quick a judgement there, esp given I picked holes in the rest really, bar the one I went with. On reflection while unexposed he wasn’t doing anything different from LTO, bar stripping fitter for it. That was maybe some indication it may be ripe for an ‘upset’.  A headgear change (the visor returning) may have made Walt more interesting – but watch his last run if you wish – he has just gone too hard on the front end, probably quite deliberately – going too fast than his comfort pace, pushing, pushing some more over 22f, and then fading. This was his 3rd run of the season, possibly peak fitness, Tom Scu up – drop in class, up in trip – mark fine – winning form at a higher level. He wasn’t ‘unexposed’ as such albeit ‘only’ 8, and holes in many of the others. 16s+. The Hobbs horse may well have dogged it in but still. Not as close to him as i’d like. There was a valid reason for what seemed a poor run LTO. 

It’s a choppy period at the moment, but losing runs of 15-25 are normal. There will be a ‘big bang’ at some point soon. Plenty of placed horses/those going close – a few too many tailing off, but I’ll address that, but in part that’s the game with the ‘biggies’.  The overall daily picture is fine, in terms of how I judge my own reading of things … +64 points from 154 bets… since late Feb when having words with myself and refocusing on hncp chases, including the ‘test’ below. They’re solid figures but I need to kick on. And I will. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/49,20p, +16.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Newcastle

12.00 – Kisumu (micro class) 20/1 S2A 

 

Southwell

1.25 –

Overworkdunderpaid (m age) I3  7/1 UP

Royale Django (m class) w2 H3 G1 6/1 S1 UP 

3.45 – Oriental Cross (m class) H3 I1 G1 7/2 S4 WON 9/2 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers 

C Longsdon (12/1<) 

1.25 South – Overworkdunderpaid (12/1<) 7/1  UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.15 Newc – Royal Claret (25/1<) 3/1 UP 5/2 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Trends Thursday Post HERE>>>

(looking at the pictures/forecast etc I fear this Chelt meeting may be washed away, but fingers crossed Saturday may survive) 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. not much value about tomorrow but i have backed 4
    Newcastle.
    12-00. Final Fling 5-1, taken the early price as i think he will shorten , has form in heavy ground and probably found the trip a tad to far lto.
    1-40. Flaming Charmer 8-1, i do like this one highly tried lto over 3m in a class 2 back to 2m4f in a class 3 today, goes on the ground and won’t mind if there’s a bit more rain.
    Southwell.
    3-10. Camile 4-1, drops back to a class 5 and has first time tongue tie/cheekpieces combo, goes in soft/heavy
    3-45. Zamoyski 9-1, bit of a punt i must admit, 3 x c&d winner but that was some time ago he is fit from the flat and below last winning mark. i did look at Oriental Cross and might have a small win saver.

  2. COLINS BETS
    ORIGINAL
    TIP TOP
    No bets today
    Must be a reason but fail to understand why my old mates at BHA have not organised AW racing to keep the racing going, they have left Friday with only 2 NH meetings with small fields.
    In the past AW racing as been organised very quickly as an emergency measure to keep racing going.
    Colin

    1. hmm, it’s only one day’s jumps racing, at one track! 🙂 Still Newc/Southwell over jumps. A bit hard with one day’s notice! I assume they had an agreement to have an ‘AW Holiday’ this week, to allow the flat jockeys not abroad to just have a few days off?
      Albeit there’s Dundalk tonight, x2 meetings tomorrow and back to normal next week.

      1. It has been a quiet week with the weather and no racing on the sand but it is just part of how it goes. I do not mind a quiet week every now and then.

        Any tips for the Cheltenham Festival (only joking!) ?

        What about The King George? What about Might Bite at 25/1 and Bristol De Mai at 33/1? Boom Boom!

        1. hmm, I think that GC 2nd has bottomed Might Bite out but we shall see – I mean if Altior stays, that’s prob game over, but in any case if Altioer, Cyrname and Clans rock up to that – well i find it hard to imagine all three getting beat but who knows!
          Interesting what they do with Bristol – obv Betfair Chase the main aim – and that’s always a hard race – I wonder if they may go quiet with him after that, and aim him at Gold Cup with fewer runs under his belt – in any case Kempton isn’t his track is it, unless bottomless? A bit too quick around there for him.
          If he was mine i’d go Betfair Chase, then have some prep in Feb, rock up at Gold Cup fresh, where he may run into a place again. Prob worth a go in the National one day!

      2. You are probably right, however in my eyes the poor quality NH racing as been going on for a few weeks and turf Flat racing as been abandoned and should have been replaced by the AW, the rain has caused problems in October and November and there is no sign of it ending soon, and sure there would be enough jockeys and appentices around who could have made one AW meeting go ahead, and some would be grateful for the extra pay packet.
        Colin.

        1. Couldn’t agree more Colin. The media are always whinging how hard it is for these youngsters to get a decent ride these days with all the top jockeys getting helicoptered in for all the plum rides at the evening meets. They should have a week set aside for amateurs and apprentices and give the rest a week off.

          1. That would be terrible Tim. You’re better of taking the missus to bingo than a week of amateur racing!

  3. Hi Ryan Mercer
    Just picked up your message from yesterday ref Walt, it was second in my ratings and will check how the second ratings perfom only have the paper back to 1st November but should give me a idea if there is potential.
    Usure about changing methods for Colins bet added two more ratings looked good at the start, then dropped one of the ratings and still unsure.
    Original bets have always done well on the AW making 40/50 points in Jan/Feb each month, this Jan/Feb was the worst year ever and that was the reason added new ratings.
    From tomorrow will only be putting up ORIGINAL bets and more than likely they will be known as Colins bets.
    Colin.

  4. sat in waiting for the gas man to come and service boiler and fire so have had time to look at tomorrow’s Gold Cup (if meeting goes ahead), the withdrawal of Saint Calvados leaves 19 in at the moment in a high class field.
    An argument could be made for many but i have come down on the side of Happy Diva should be available at around 16-1 and i’ll wait till after midnight to get bog.
    Happy Diva always seems to run her race , she came second to Guitar Pete by 3.5l on her seasonal reappearance but is 4lb better off and the softer ground should suit her more. should come on for that race and with most bookies paying 5 places looks a solid ew bet.

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