Members Daily Post: 14/11/19 (complete:09.54)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/125, 42p +30.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

#1 2.55 Ludlow – LORD GETAWAY – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/WH/BV)  2nd, 7/1 – best of the rest by some way, stayed on well, having been tapped for toe, alas bumped into one – Bobo Mac, unexposed over fences, well handicapped on hurdles form, getting it all together over fences, and winning with a fair amount in hand sadly. The money indicated he would be fit – just a bit too much guesswork for me with him albeit he was 8s, but a very good ride by Heskin, the bugger. Clearly his booking was significant. I’m not sure i’d ever have been close enough based on his chase form to date, questions over fully staying 26f in soft+, and first run in 254 days having never won fresh, but had run well last year. Just one of those to take on the chin. 

#2 3.40 Taunt – CRESSWELL LEGEND – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP 4/1

that’s all for today, as of 09.04, write ups incoming at bottom of post 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/49,20p, +16.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ludlow

4.00 – Grageelagh Girl (HcH) G1 11/2 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Sedgefield

12.30 –

Millie The Minx (HcH) H3 I3 9/4 

Oceanus (HcH) 13/2 

3.50 –

Nicely Indeed (HcH) 22/1 S2A

Iolani (HcH) w2 H3 I3 11/2 

 

Taunton

3.05 – Mac Bella (micro runs) 8/1 

4.10 –

Annsam (m runs) 22/1 S2A

Bang On (m TJC) 14/1 

Sir Psycho (m runs) H1 10/11 

 

Clonmel

2.15 –

Noble Endeavor (all Hc’s) H3 11/1 

Elwood (all Hc’s)  5/1 

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TTP Chase Micros 
3.15 Sedge – Misdflight (any odds) L H3 4/1 UP
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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

V Williams 

1.50 Lud – Cock A Doodle Doo  7/2 UP 8/1

E Lavelle (14/1<)

3.05 Taunt – Viva Vittoria 7/2 UP

C Longsdon (12/1<)

2.55 Lud – Shanroe in milan 11/1 UP

3.40 Taunt – Montys Award 8/1

 

November Trainers

2.25 Lud – Thegallantway 5/1 3rd

2.35 Taunt – Paint The Dream 28/1 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Write Ups…

2.55 Ludlow 

Lord Getaway – 

I could’t work out why he was 9/s/10s in this line up given he’s still unexposed, he ran well on his return LTO, he’s the strongest stayer in the race to my eyes and he really won’t mind how soft this gets. This is around 26f with the rail movements and I hope it finds some of them out. It’s already ‘soft’ with more rain forecast – it could be hard work. Treadwell has returned to the saddle in recent years and he’s 5/24,9p when teaming up with Evans. This horse has raced more prominently before and I hope he doesn’t anchor him too far back – held up horses do ok over this CD, but i’d hope he can hold a position further forward and get into a rhythm. He does have to prove it a C3, albeit not many goes, but some of his form is solid enough – many of his races producing subsequent winners. There should really be more to come from him this year and his performances ‘on the figures’ are decent. I just thought his price looked silly in conditions…

The dangers…

Head To The Stars... I narrowed it down to these two at the prices and i’ve gone with the bigger priced one, who’s already won over fences and who’s proven to slog this out. This one is interesting and is unexposed as a staying chaser. He’s some solid form over hurdles at this/higher level which indicates he should have chases in him from this mark. However, i’m not 100% sure he’s a slogger – most of his staying form is over 2m6f or so, weakening to an extent late on. He’s also raced here twice over fences and hasn’t run that well. In the end I didn’t think 6s or so was overpriced, so i’ve left him, but if he comes with a late rattle and does Lord Getaway, I may need a stiff drink 🙂 (and such drinks are never far away in this game!) 

I was happy to leave the rest, esp having concluded this would be testing underfoot. 

Uhlan Bute is 11, 3/30 odd – he can just beat me, and i’ll applaud him home. Conditions won’t be a problem and he may race up there- he could draw errors from mine, and need to be reeled in. 

Marble Moon had to be taken on in these conditions, a complete unknown as to ground and there’s a reason he must have been kept to decent ground. In any case he needs to improve and poor Conor Ring is 2/104 in the last year. 

Midnight Chill wasn’t overpriced at 5s given he has stamina to prove and even more so in this ground. He may improve for both but does need more I think. Anyway he can beat me at those odds but there should be more to come this season. 

Bobo Mac is unexposed over fences albeit i’m not sure he wants a slog – in truth i’m just guessing as to fitness and he’s now 0/4 chasing, with a stamina question. If he beats me so be it – Symonds had one at Hereford win on seasonal/chase debut this week. Id have thought Davies or maybe Ben Poste would have been on if ready – it would be typical for him to be fit and Heskin to ride a blinder! Which may happen. He’s interesting, given he is unexposed and handles soft. 

Shanroe is 1/15 in his career and when he won at Donc needed delivering late/some coaxing. He’s stamina to prove in proper soft, and esp heavy if it goes that way, as does Keltus who I can also leave in conditions. If the Bowen horse wins, lord help me. 

Pace wise… well three starts back at MR Lord G tracked the pace and was never too far away – i’m hoping he does so again, albeit here you have a long run on the turn for home with no fences in which to move up – so there shouldn’t be an excuse really. 

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3.40 Taunt – 

Cresswell Legend – 

This horse was entitled to be 7/2 or so in this line up I thought, especially with the rain forecast – how this will be Good ground i’ve no idea! While he may prefer better, he ran fine on soft in a decent handicap hurdle at Musselburgh and there’s a strong chance he’ll handle it better than everything else in here. He races on the pace and I suspect will try and make all – Chester Williams > well maybe i’m not his biggest fan over fences but he’s getting better, knows the horse now, and didn’t miss a beat on him LTO at Exeter – I suspect that run was needed – he travelled through the race well in 3rd but they never tried to get to the front -which makes me think he will come on plenty for it – and he ran as such, fading from 2 out or so, but plugging on. 

I think he has the best chase form in this race , with the promise of more to come this season. He has to go RH but those runs at Perth when he just lost out to Cubomania and at Hereford when chasing home Drovers Lane (sadly I think both may no longer be with us) – those horses would go on to rate higher and it’s solid form. The yard are in fine form and I just thought he looked solid, and was 2/3 points too big to my eyes. 

Of the rest…

Well Monty’s Award was the other on my shortlist at the prices but soft ground would pose a real question and he does have to prove his stamina – he’s also a bit of a monkey I think – well i’m not sure he can hit the front too soon. In the end i’ve gone with the one with the best chase form, who should handle the ground better, definitely stays who also has more to come. The 2 point difference wasn’t enough but i’ll be a tad annoyed if he runs well. He’s the odd run on soft in non-handicaps which makes me think he may be ok, but questions. If he’s withdrawn it would indicate it’s getting soft/they think he needs good. 

I could leave the three bigger priced ones for various reasons. Jersey Bean is interesting but this chase test will ask questions of him – he is unexposed but needs to step up I think. Another with ground Q if this goes on the soft side. 

I could leave the other three who I didn’t think were overpriced. Templepark has stamina to prove and in this ground – and he wasn’t sure to be winning LTO when his close rival fell two out – he was put up 8lb for that which seemed harsh. But there could be more to come and he may relish conditions, but not at 3s. 

Brother Ted is 10 and has clearly had problems. He has gone well fresh but could just be regressive and again he has stamina questions, and in this ground. They could have 8-12mm today, having had 33m over the weekend/to last night. Unless it was a road before i’m not sure how this will be ‘good’, unless it drains very well. Not that it will bother the selection. Anyway, he just has a few too many questions for me at 9/2 but a big run wouldn’t shock. 

There’s the Nicholls’ horse who’s unexposed but i’m guessing plenty with him, including fitness. He’s another who’s generally been kept to good and his win came over 20f – another with a going/stamina question, which made 9/2 seem only OK when I was looking – not overpriced, and he’s prob 2/3 pointers shorter than he should be, profile wise, because of Nicholls. Clearly I won’t be shocked if he takes a big step forward but I can leave him. 

Pace- well Chester will try and be aggressive I think as Cresswell is happiest when able to dictate. They won’t launch Jersey Bean given his inexperience/field size I doubt, now Templepark with this step back up in trip , and he should have too much youth for Tizzards, who can hit a fence also. 

 

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • T 3.40 – Cresswell Legend @ 11/2

    Titus 14/11/19 8:04 AM Reply


  • Clonmel 2-15. Westerner Point , better known for his chasing but everything looks good for a big run today, had a pipe opener last month over a far to short 2m, upped to 3m and gets his prefered going. Obviously has had his problems recently but worth a shot at a nice price.

    martin whittle 14/11/19 8:15 AM Reply


    • Well done Martin, made a nice start to the day. 16/1…sp9/1

      Mike

      mickeydee 14/11/19 2:44 PM Reply


      • very happy chappy 🙂
        08:35
        Won
        Single – Each Way:
        Stake: 8.00 – Returns: 101.44
        2:15 Clonmel – Win
        Westerner Point @ Guaranteed Price (18/1) 3@1/5

        martin whittle 14/11/19 4:20 PM Reply


        • So you should be, well done Martin, top picking.

          Josh 14/11/19 4:37 PM Reply


  • Re Cheltenham meet, raining persistently here all morning and forecast to continue until evening. Expect heavy. There is an inspection at 3pm today……..

    manyanga 14/11/19 9:52 AM Reply


    • OK thanks. I will wait to do my prep. Forecast says rain all day today and then stop tonight but start again Friday in the day!
      I have put up Fact Of The Matter in the cross country on Friday but nothing else yet.

      martin colwell 14/11/19 9:56 AM Reply


      • Did you not check the going before you went in on Fact of The Matter Martin? To my eyes his best form is on decent ground, and he will be in trouble if it’s proper soft, which it may not be – but I could have him wrong – they do just potter around there sometimes so you can get away with not handling conditions as much.

        Josh 14/11/19 10:11 AM Reply


        • I did. But on Wednesday and did not check the weather forecast for Cheltenham. If the meeting does go ahead now then I am likely in trouble with the selection. The middle of the course may have flooded anyway and so if the meeting goes ahead the race may be pulled and it is money back!!!!

          martin colwell 14/11/19 11:20 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    ORIGINAL
    TIP TOP

    No bets today
    Colin

    cleafe 14/11/19 10:04 AM Reply


  • New… trends thursday post with a look at 3 handicaps from Cheltenham… I suspect tomorrow will be abandoned, in the hope of saving Sat/Sunday, which they may just do if the rain relents. Fingers crossed…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2019/11/14/trends-thursday-14-11-19/
    Josh

    Josh 14/11/19 11:18 AM Reply


  • Lambourn trainers:

    Warren Greatrex each way – 2.00 Taunton, Mandalayan, 8/1 now.

    martin colwell 14/11/19 11:22 AM Reply


  • Something a bit spooky about all these 2nds ?

    jamesm 14/11/19 3:16 PM Reply


    • annoying to keep bumping into one, alas – while annoying, watching them compete is far better than the tail off early jobs of which i’ve picked a few too many in last couple of weeks. It’s either that or an agonising 2nd. Why couldn’t Symonds have left him short on fitness, or Heskin have got too far back – it’s fine margins stuff really – Lord G won’t be 10s next time I doubt, he def has a staying chase in him at his level, when the mud is flying. I didn’t know if Bobo would handle proper soft/26f, his chase runs to date had been iffy, and I didn’t know if he’d be fit, certainly in testing conditions. But he has relished it and won with loads in hand. Annoying but not sure i’m getting closer to him at 8s, i’ll rack my brains for what I could have pondered further. In a way that’s the sort of winner you just have to accept at this time of year. But noted that Symonds can clearly ready these stayers if he wants, that’s the second one this week.
      Josh

      Josh 14/11/19 3:21 PM Reply


  • Punters may already have noted that Cheltenham Friday is off. Still raining here and pictures on Twitter of small lakes on the track.

    manyanga 14/11/19 4:02 PM Reply


  • Bloody heck tuff time at the moment, backed yours Josh but was making a case for Walt last night, pretty much just being better than anything in the race. Had runs so fitness surely not a doubt, was back at a mark close to what won off last year and thought interesting they were going back to Taunton as he won there last year.
    But was unsure would be a realistic target possibly a bit of a better race in mind, would of liked to of asked opinions on here but Christmas rush has come early so no time at all today to carry on looking
    Was half hoping Colin would have gone for him as do notice he does a few Top rated and a bit similar to Valdez which I also missed during the week dropping to a grade 3, but I wasn’t able to have a look on here and check anyways 🙁

    Ryan Mercer 14/11/19 6:45 PM Reply


    • Yep one of those that makes plenty of sense post race that I need to be nearer pre race, but will land on a few before long. His case in part was made by the questions many others had at the odds I suppose.
      I just made a judgement on him appearing to be out of form/wanting to see more LTO, esp with no headgear switch. But I didn’t appreciate that a) he may still have needed it but b) he was ridden so aggressively over a shorter trip, it was no shock he dropped out back of TV.
      That drop in class and yep returning to a track he’s won at in a race where many had questions. And Scu on.
      Yep it’s tough enough but this game isn’t meant to be easy, and it isn’t, and this time of year at times can be harder than others but still I’d like to be doing better. But then with a bit more luck I could have 40 more points in the bank. That’s racing and why you nerd adequate banks etc.

      Josh 14/11/19 8:09 PM Reply


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