Members Daily Post: 13/11/19 (complete:8.50)

write ups -Tips x2, Section 2 (x1), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/123, 41p +32.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.00 Exeter

GUERRILLA TACTICS – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/betfS/BV/PP/Uni) 9/1 (others) UP 20/1

IN ARREARS – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365/WH) 18/1 (gen) UP 16/1

that’s all for today, as of 08.07, write up at bottom of post…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/49,20p, +16.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ayr

2.15 –

River Icon (HcH) w2 H3 G3 10/3 UP

Baby Ticker (HcH) 12/1 UP

3.20 – Sophie Olivia (micro age) G3 6/1 UP

 

Bangor

12.45 –

Mr McGo (m TJC) L G1 5/2 UP

Steel Wave (all Hc’s) H3 I1 G3 7/2 S4 UP

Zolfo (HcCh) I3 15/2 WON 17/2 

1.50 – Commodore (HcCh) L w1 w2 H3 I1 2/1 UP 7/2 

2.55 – Chti Balko (HcH) H3 G3 10/3 WON

 

Exeter

3.40 –

John Constable (all Hc’s) ES+ H3 I3 11/1 S3A# UP

Smarty Wild (m going) w2 I1 G3 9/2  WON 

Sirop De Menthe (m class) 12/1 UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers 

V Williams (any odds) 

1.50 Bang – Commodore 2/1  UP 7/2

2.35 Exet – Cloudy Glen 8/1 UP 10/1

 

November Trainers

2.00 Exet – Nativegiveaway (12/1<) 9/1 2nd 

2.35 Exet – Golden Sunrise (12/1<) 8/1  UP

4.10 Exet – Rarest Diamond (12/1<) 66/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.20 Ayr – Polydora 7/4 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

2.00 Exet – Itsamanslife (25/1<) 12/1 UP

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

#1 NEW Micro Monday Post: READ HERE>>>

(includes a look at C Williams inc a video from ATR, and a look at some ‘Front Running Jockeys’) 

#2 NEW Tracker Tuesday Post: READ HERE>>>

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2.00 Exeter – write ups…

Guerrilla Tactics –

this isn’t a great race and it’s one where you can make some sort of case for many I suppose – I couldn’t resist a go at a couple of 10s+ shots, this being the first… to my eyes this 9 year old is just solid – he jumps, he gallops, he gallops some more, and he stays. He’s tough also , often responding to pressure and he knows how to win. He arrives fit and in form and while he’s lurking around a mark which may seem tough enough on paper, there’s enough pieces of form which make me think it will be fine – and in any case this race looks more about who will jump/stay/run their race to my eyes. There’s only 4lb between the top 6 for example, that’s one or two bad jumps. And in some of his races he’s been in and around much higher rated oppo. He’s 1/9,5p in handicap chases and ran well LTO at Kempton in 3rd, where he was outpaced but not beaten far. The 2nd that day won yesterday. A more undulating track like this is a question but I see no reason why he won’t handle it. The going is also a question – he has wins on Good to Soft, which apparently the home straight is – but I did watch back his run at Wincanton in heavy – it was hard work that day – over 27f, and he was travelling well enough until falling 2 out. He certainly travelled in a way which suggested he was handling the ground just fine. So at 10s I’ll roll the dice. Scott is in form as is Scholfield. This one is just tough and that may be enough today. He also tracks the pace and should be in a ‘no excuses’ position. Solid, I hope!

In Arrears –

One with a completely different profile here and I couldn’t resist at the prices – she’s 5/22 in Points and Hunter chases, including two facile victories over this CD – she relishes soft ground and I find it interesting that they are running her under rules, back here. Bryan Carver is also very very good value for his 7lb claim. It’s hard to know what to make of the form really, however I used her RPRs as a guide- in her two wins around here she recorded figures of 119 and 117, which may give some hope she could be well handicapped. She generally gallops on the front end and jumps for run. Or has done in the races i’ve watched. This is her first run in a handicap, she’s run well off breaks before (and her trainer has a rules handicap winner off a long absence) and i’d like to think this may have been a plot/plan, in the hope of paying for Xmas. It could be she needs it or won’t be good enough, but in a race like this, there was enough there for me to have a speculative dart at 18s+ . It’s another risky one and they can go one of two ways, as we have seen – but i’m hopeful of a decent showing here, at least until they turn in.

Of the rest…

Well it’s hard to know where to start but there were not any thoroughly unexposed ones I was frightened of, albeit arguably i’m with one of those above.

Big Meadow is the right starting point – if he wins this then all credit to him- returning 7 days after what appeared to be a hard race to the eye, his first run of the season. I’m not sure he’s as good as he was and I wanted to take him on – he could run flat, or maybe he will take another step forward – his mark compared to his historical highs looks good and he is only 8. He will race on the front end, may try and make all. I didn’t think he was overpriced given that niggle. His time figure LTO in Inform wasn’t great either, which at his price also makes me want to avoid.

Tractor Fred – I looked at him as he’s unexposed, but also inexperienced and that was enough for me to leave him – i watched his last run and something niggled at me about his jumping, esp the last 3 when under pressure. He fell twice in his points and it was just a bit scratchy/guessy at times, as you may expect given his inexperience. He is only 5 and he has another 14lb in actual weight on his back here. I didn’t think he was overpriced but if he jumps he’s one of the more interesting ones.

As it Itsamanslife but his jumping has been suspect to date also – they crawled around Bangor where he had all the time in the world, and smacked one there also- in what was a very weak chase. I’m not sure he may want it soft either but more an unknown. However he is lightly raced and if his jumping holds together, he could well be in the mix here.

Nativegetaway – he’s a bit like Tractor Fred in a way – unexposed, but it’s hard to know what ability he has and he’s inexperienced over fences – I didn’t like the way he jumped LTO – he seemed unsure at plenty, slowing into them a tad, ballooning a few. Robbie Power may make all the difference and his best run to date was in soft at Chepstow in a maiden hurdle – maybe he wants cut. He’s lightly raced so always a danger but yet to win a race and hard to know if he’s got plenty in hand. I can leave him, and the yard are a bit in and out at the moment, more so than maybe I realised. Albeit last 12 runners, 2 winners, 4 2nds/3rds.

Almost Gold is inexperienced also and has a ground question, trainer/jockey 0/12,1p when teaming up. Midnight Magic’s best form has been on better ground and he’s a mercurial character also. The Frost horse has a question from this mark, and after the break of 60+ days.

Western Climate is interesting… he dotted up here in more testing ground in Jan 18 off a 17lb higher mark – clearly if he got back to that level we could all be in trouble. But as per LTO his jumping has always been iffy – and in that Exeter race they’d dolled off half the fences, jumping 9 instead of 18 – that made a big difference to him. He’s clearly not as good as if he was a 120+ horse he’d have bolted up LTO, and he was beat (albeit maybe running on into 2nd) when falling at the last. IF he jumps, he could have a big say, and maybe improve on his jockeys 1/63 record around here in the last 5 years, 0/14 over fences. Maybe he’s been on plenty of non-triers, ahem.

The Boom is Back is interesting/lightly raced but so many questions including fitness and going, and indeed ability. Williams is 2/64 with his 60+ day runners and many can take a run or two to get up to speed.

I can see the EW case for Big Time Frank – he’s a monkey who finds ways to lose, now 0/13, 8p over fences, (0/19 in career) a few of those he’s cruised into it looking like the winner, before throwing it away. Maybe this jockey will make a difference and I can see him looming up for sure – and everything may have fallen in a hole by then. He does have a Q up into a C4 also though. Blazing Tom has even more questions.

So, it’s a race that has an open feel where it’s best having a couple of pokes I think – obviously Big Meadow will now bolt up! 🙂

I may have one of the more lightly raced ones wrong – Tractor Fred/Almost Gold / Nativegiveaway / Itsamanslife – but there were reasons I wanted to leave them today/wait until I see more, esp in the jumping department.

Time will tell.

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

    1. Hi Stephen,
      Ah yes I need to update The Key in the welcome Post link…

      It’s just for any stats qualifier running in a handicap Chase that has led at least once on last four runs.. There is some subjective judgement from me using Geegeez Pace maps.
      But in essence there’s a chance they may try and make all. Thus L is for Lead.

      It doesn’t mean they definitely will, and doesn’t mean they will get an uncontested lead.

      But I thought it may be useful to highlight as added information. It could simply be a ‘way in’, another way to ‘shortlist’ possible bets for the day etc.
      I am tracking results to see if it may work systematically just backing them all but the jury is out on that. But some logic for why it might work as a ‘strategy’
      Remembering that 67% of all handicap chases are won by horses leading or racing prominently.
      Josh

  1. The 2:35 at Exeter looks fun! Virginia Chick must have a great chance of following up effectively carrying 1lb more and down in class. I think Notachance has a great chance, the sort of race and I’m drawn to Southern Sam because the trainer does well in first time Hcp Nov Chases but I’m not sure he’ll like the soft. The fav is too short but trainer red hot, Tizzard not clicking really same as a few others in here, Cloudy Glen up in trip but will love the ground and goes well fresh, up in trip but I think that might blow it for him. Notachance small each way for me with change on V Chick. It looks a fun race and a fair few with chances I think.

    1. Southern Sam is one of my eye catchers to follow this season on another site. We will see what his trainer says about him on the Lambourn trainers site later re today. I think that he will go well in chases three miles plus if his jumping is adequate. He looks a stayer but has been a bit one paced over hurdles over shorter.

      1. Southern Sam showed a decent level of form last season in novice hurdles, but he always looked as if he’d make a better chaser. He is very laid back at home and not a flashy horse in any way but on a racecourse he has a relentless gallop and he’s very honest. He did finish second in a point-to-point before Tim Syder bought him. He has schooled well at home and even though he will improve for a run he’s done plenty of work.

        The words of Oliver Sherwood.

  2. 14:00 Exeter
    BIG TIME FRANK 1pt win 25/1 gen
    ITSAMANSLIFE 1pt win 12/1 gen

    no time for write ups, but, think these two have an outstanding chance, wouldn`t put you off backing BTF each way. Strange prices for both IMO.

  3. Systems selections: +53 to date in 2019.

    Harry Fry at Exeter – 2.35 Captain Drake.

    Lambourn trainers :

    Jamie Snowden – each way – 2.00 Ex, Tractor Fred.

    Warren Greatrex – each way – 2.35 Ex, Rock My Style.

  4. TIP TOP
    12.45 Bangor Mr Mcgo 11/4
    2.55 Bangor Chti Balko 7/2
    2.15 Ayr Off The Hook 9/1
    Good 12/1 winner yesterday from only bet
    Oct + 9.77
    Nov + 11.250 so far
    Colin

      1. Good to hear Chris, as for Aruba could well be back on 1st of Jan, there were to many short priced bets which put down to poor quality NH racing alongside the rain and heavy going, so hopefully the conditions will have settled down by Jan.
        TIP TOP does not surprise me and expect it to perform or out perform Elite, and to think missed a 14/1 winner this month, so should be + 25.250 up but alas missed it.
        Colin.

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