Members Daily Post: 12/11/19 (complete:08.30)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/121, 41p +35.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.00 Hereford – CARRICK ROADS – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/WH/BV) 15/2 (betfS/PP) UP 4/1 – well backed, ran like a 33/1 shot – really poor, and beaten from a long way out , that may leave connections scratching their head – maybe he didn’t like the track, RH/too tight, i’m not sure – maybe he needs some headgear or needs to mature mentally more – but that was poor, and maybe a timely reminder to leave novice handicaps well alone, two/three times i’ve been tempted in and it hasn’t gone well, just too much guesswork- the winner, first run fences, no points exp to judge, first run of season having no ‘win fresh’ record, but a reminder of how good Ben Poste is on staying chasers  

that’s all for today, as of 08.03, write up at bottom of post…

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/49,20p, +16.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Huntingdon

1.40 – Song For Someone (all Hc’s) w2 H3 I3

3.10 – Veiled Secret (all Hc’s) G3 5/1 2nd 

 

Hereford and Lingfield……..None

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

V Williams (any)

2.00 H – Jurys Out 3/1 UR

E Lavelle (14/1<)

1.30 H – Dollinamix 8/1 UP

1.40 Hunt – Highly Prized 10/1 WON 10/1>9/2

 

November Trainers

2.00 H – Carrick Roads (12/1<) 7/1 UP 4/1

2.30 H – War Lord (12/1<) 2/1 3rd

2.40 Hunt – Dan Gun (33/1< guide)  3/1 WON 3/1>9/4 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

1.50 L – Clondaw Ace (any)  20/1 UP

3.30 H – Perpignan (any) 16/1 UP

 

LTO Winning Trainers

3.20 Ling – Tanrudy (12/1< guide) 5/4 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

2.00 H – Loud As Lions (25/1<) 8/1 WON 8/1>7/1 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

3.00 H – Town Parks 5/1 UP 7/2

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

NEW Micro Monday Post: READ HERE>>>

(includes a look at C Williams inc a video from ATR, and a look at some ‘Front Running Jockeys’) 

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Really Super… whooosh….well, she was just that and surprised us all to a point – you always wish you’d have been more bullish when they win like that, but it’s said with hindsight – clearly she was entitled to do that if transferring her hurdles form to fences and we hoped it would click at some point. The CP and a more aggressive ride have made the difference, which in part Jack could do now she’s got more chase experience – that run LTO effectively her first proper chase, but it did come on the back of a course of AntiBiotics post Worcester, and she was never balanced/striding out on the track (the cambers at Hereford something to bear in mind for horses showing poor form) –  It looked like she may not be up for it approaching the 1st (gulp, here we go again!), but Jack has then got stuck in with a lively reminder, a kick in the belly – and she hasn’t looked back after that, racing with her ‘winning zest’. Some of her jumps were superb and that was the most exciting element – she was clever at a couple also which is always good to see, getting in tight but popping them – the gallop she can go, at that level, got everything in behind in trouble. Her jumping/speed has torn that race to shreds, they just couldn’t cope in behind. She clearly has a few more chases in her on that evidence, when in that mood/in that form. A big day, and for Jack, who’ll know what to do next time. The dream remains that we may have a Mare up to listed class (mares), and who knows after that. But hopefully another 10k handicap or two to take in first. 🙂 

And she made up for two more abject tipping efforts – i’ve picked a few risky ones in recent days that haven’t been rewarded and i’ll ponder on those, but always some method to the madness. But maybe i’ve got what i’ve deserved. 

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Write up…

Carrick Roads…

I’m venturing into a novice handicap chase, of which there are a few today but by far this is the most intriguing of them. Colin Tizzard’s young chaser looks overpriced here – they haven’t wasted much time in sending him over fences which I like to see, with a light campaign in NHF races and over hurdles – where he got a win on the board at Bangor over 23f, staying on well.

He returned to action at Uttoxeter, sent off 10/1 with Tom O’Brien on, perhaps indicating he would come on for it – and he certainly ran that way, fading from three out or so, having also been keen enough through the first half of the race. That was also a much deeper contest, with 130+ horses in it, 15lb+ superior to him on form to date. The winner has since won easily again over hurdles, off 136. I think he handled the ground fine and he looks a big/strong horse. He’s by Robin Des Champs and his chase offspring are 21/103, 36p in Soft, +23, 4/10 over 25/26f, so i’ve no concerns over softer ground, at the odds.

He drops in class here and Harry Cobden jumps on, which is usually an upgrade and a sign of intent from Tizzard, especially as they are 13/40, 25p, +24 in handicap chases over 25/26f, 8/22,16p when in C4.

Hey jumped well at Uttoxeter I thought and Harry may use his experience to be more aggressive on/near the front end. The way he shaped over hurdles suggests he will enjoy this step back up in trip and I thought he could give the top two plenty to think about.

The dangers…

Well I can leave Stop The World-  he’s still a maiden and i’ve a few questions as to what he finds under pressure/if in a scrap. He may prove me wrong today but he seems short enough to my eyes.

Jurys Out – one for Venetia who’s having his first chase start. He will make this mark look silly over fences at some point and it could be today. He doesn’t seem overpriced given it’s his first chase in public, with stamina to prove. Fitness won’t be a problem and Venetia talked about him as a chaser in the making after his win at Carlisle, and he does look a fine stamp of a horse. I’d prefer him by some way to King’s, and while 3s may be fine for any ‘Venetia Time’ system followers, it didn’t seem overpriced with my subjective analytical eyes.

The rest I can leave but of course it’s a novice handicap chase and something may step forward. But a few have fitness to prove and of course their first run over fences.

Nearly Perfect and Halloween Harry have Point form and could be two to keep an eye on moving forward as there’s surely much more to come from them at some point. Hopefully they both need it today and the fact Bryony is at Huntingdon may indicate as much for N King’s chaser.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Update on my Hip operation cannot believe it was only 9 months ago totally changed my life, having joined two different dance classes and will be out dancing 3 or 4 times this week, not bad for a 65 year old, who thinks he is 18, and having lost over a stone in weight feel great.
    Anyone contenplating hip or knee op get it done ASAP provided you work at getting fit and working hard at the exercises after the op then it will change your life, my target this month was to walk/dance 200 miles but by the end of play tonight will have done 100, so the target is 250 miles.
    Colin.

    cleafe 11/11/19 8:06 PM Reply


  • Glad to see that your op has given you a new lease of life.the mother had both hips done 15 years ago and is still mobile at 86,far better than 15 years in a wheelchair if the advance hadn’t happened.This brings me neatly to a senior citizen of the turf

    3.20 Lingfield Burgess dream
    This is the only horse to tick all the boxes on going distance and course.The jockey has won on him and is 3/4 at course.That’s the good stuff.
    The bad is he is 10 years old,trainer current form is an unknown and he has pulled up last time out.With older horses you don’t know if they have another season in them and the old joints are a bit stiffer in the morning but then again we had veterans winning yesterday in lord of the island and venetias.
    at 12/1 just looked a decent proposition on a poor day

    gearoid180468 11/11/19 9:18 PM Reply


  • Fantastic result Josh. Haven’t seen it yet but will really enjoy it when I get the chance. Wish I’d had a tenner on!
    Hugh

    alpha2 11/11/19 11:01 PM Reply


    • Cheers Hugh – well one of our number who does like a bet didn’t have a penny on – it was hard to predict she’d do that albeit I wish she was 16s early, as that was a silly price- I ‘only’ had my usual 1 point on, but I won’t complain. She clearly enjoyed her mind being made up – but had CP not worked/Jack not been aggressive, she may have approached every fence like the 1st – seems she’s happy to doss around unless firmly instructed otherwise! Albeit I think the antiB she was on leading up to Hereford def knocked edge off her, as it did at Leic in her juvenile days for us when also on meds beforehand.

      Josh 12/11/19 9:50 AM Reply


  • No time for write ups this morning:
    Brandon Castle Huntingdon 13:40 1pt e/w 16/1
    No Cruise Yet Huntingdon 14:40 1pt e/w 12/1 and
    0.25pt reverse forecast with Armattiekan
    15:00 Ballyhill Hereford 1.5pt win 9/2

    NickM 12/11/19 8:40 AM Reply


  • Good to see Ryan Mania back in the winners enclosure t’other day after a few years away. Is he the one to give Sue’s string a proverbial kick? She could do with something as there is obviously talent at the yard.

    Titus 12/11/19 8:57 AM Reply


    • yep that was good to see- had weight problems I believe but a fine riding addition to the northern ranks and one to watch.
      Midnight Shadow was going to win well yesterday before falling so maybe they are about to burst into life. Her last 3 runners before him had run much better. It may not be long.

      Josh 12/11/19 9:01 AM Reply


  • H 3.30 – Midnight Mustang @ 14 e/w
    Age may have caught up but down below last win mark and on suitable ground with new jock so prepared to go e/w.

    Titus 12/11/19 9:16 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS and ORIGINAL
    No bets today

    cleafe 12/11/19 9:49 AM Reply


  • TIP TOP
    3.00 Hereford Valdez 12/1
    Colin

    Josh well done yesterday, obviousley not fell out of love with racing!

    cleafe 12/11/19 10:04 AM Reply


    • Ha, cheers Colin – oh I didn’t think she had done, but obviously wanted to see much more than LTO, but there were excuses, but at same time knew she could be turning into a ‘thinker’ and you never quite know how they will respond to headgear/jockey getting stuck in early etc. Or indeed how she’d jump when being hurdled at them, albeit homework/and how she’d jumped so far, indicated would be fine. Some of her leaps were very professional given her inexperience. Much to look forward to again.

      Josh 12/11/19 10:08 AM Reply


    • Nice winner Colin

      Leif Collins 12/11/19 3:56 PM Reply


  • Lambourn trainers :

    Warren Greatrex each way – 1.30 Her, Little Jack; 3.40 Hun, Audacity.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 12/11/19 10:59 AM Reply


  • Perpignan 3.30 H….was 18/1 now down to 12/1
    23rd Sept 1st 3 in this race have won since
    Anteros
    Templepark
    Kapgarry
    plus 7th Primal Focus.

    Mike

    mickeydee 12/11/19 11:00 AM Reply


  • just got back in and hopefully the market has got things right as i’ve done well with early prices,
    Carrick Road 8 >9/2
    Perpignan 18 >9
    Never Equalled 9 >7/2
    G’Day Aussie 9 >7
    couple of silly £1 ew’s at Fairyhouse
    Smoking Gun 50-1
    Denham Hana 12-1

    martin whittle 12/11/19 1:00 PM Reply


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