Members Daily Post: 11/11/19 (complete:9.54)

Really Super, test tip x2, Section 2 (x1), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/120, 41p +36.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/49,20p, +16.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#1 2.05 Kemp – COMMANDANT – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/BV) 9/1 (gen) UP, no excuse there, in the right place and fact Darebin won suggests pace was fine/perfect. Folded tamely which was disappointing. 

#2 3.05 Carl – KNOCKNAMONA – 1 point win – 14/1 (WH/BV) 12/1 (gen) PU, never going a yard, a ‘character’ who’s clearly a challenge to get right, still even so, that was poor. A risky one, who will maybe bounce into life when his mark is back down to 103< moving on. 

that’s all for today #1 as as of 08.41, #2 as of 08.59…write ups at bottom of post 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Carlisle

1.55 –

Amberose (all Hc’s) 14 H3 I3 5/1 WON 15/8 

Lily’s Gem (all Hc’s) H3 7/4 2nd 

3.05 –

Never Up (micro TJC)L H3 I3 7/2 UP

Knocknamona (m age) 14/1 PU

 

Kempton……..None

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TTP Chase Micros

12.55 K – Net De Treve 15/2 UP

3.05 C – Never Up L H3 I3 7/2 UP

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

C Longsdon

2.05 K – Nightfly (12/1<) 10/1 UP

 

November Trainers 

1.30 K – Ofalltheginjoints (12/1<) 5/4 2nd

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

12.55 K – Dorking Cock (13/2<) 4/1 UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

3.15 K – Really Super 10/1 WON 16/1 

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

2.05 K – Commandant 9/1  UP

3.15 K – Definitelyanoscar 2/1 2nd

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Write ups…

Commandant – based on his run LTO, his first for the yard, i’ve no doubt he will make all at some point over fences, and i’m hoping that may be today. He went into the notebook LTO having set a frantic pace, to the eye, jumping well on the front end, the field well spread out. He had most in trouble turning in bar the winner, and one for Fry’s who’s short in Super’s race later on the card. That was a novice handicap chase but the King winner was chucked in, Fry’s unexposed, but he plugged on and the front 3 were miles clear. Tom C jumps on today and trainer/jockey are 4/17, 7p in handicap chases around here. He may appreciate the slight drop in trip also and with a win in Ireland on yielding, I won’t use the slightly softer ground as an excuse, at these odds. It is a question mind. He’s 2/7 over fences, 1/5 in handicaps, and there should be more to come. Hopefully he can bowl along on the front end and if he jumps like LTO, get a few of these in trouble. It is a rhythm track.

Of the rest…

Ecu De la Noverie is a danger and he should win a chase or two this season, with some solid form in the book already. I’m hoping Maxwell will be patient again and not try and make all- there’s a chance he does and ruins it for both him and mine, but he may be more patient.

If they go too hard, it may set it up for the Nicholl’s horse, who’s being backed – that sets off alarm bells. He is thoroughly unexposed but needs to settle. This is only his second chase start and a frantic pace here would be a question. I can’t be with him at his price and would want to see more.

I won’t fall off my seat if either of those two take it, and they formed my shortlist of three.

The other unexposed one is Vinnie The Hoddie but again inexperienced and this will be deeper/tougher than his chase debut.

Pointed And Sharp has turned into a consistent chaser but is up 8lb for that last win and up in class. I thought that may now do for him or in any case there will be better treated rivals.

Movie Legend is admirable if tuned up for his return and is a solid ‘been there and done it’ horse with a touch of class – hopefully he may need it but again he’s open to attack from something with more to come, this his 20th chase.

I can leave Teaser now who’s jumping does raise questions and I couldn’t have the rest for one reason or another.

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Knocknamona – this is a risky one to a point and some would say a question of ‘when is he trying!’ – his form when it’s testing, as it should be today (soft/heavy in places, poss more rain) is pretty decent, including around here. I did note his last three wins have come on the back of LTO defeats of 27, 45 and 29 L – he rarely wins having ‘run his race’ – and it’s not a shock all of those have been on going with ‘good’ in the description, inc LTO. I suspect they’ve been training him on the track to a point but he just needs a swamp, both for him to run his race and slow everything down. His last win was over this CD in Feb, in soft, where he won easily by 8l off 103 at 18/1, posting a career best RPR of 113. He beat the 118 rated Native Robin that day, who’s since ran a couple of solid races. The rest were well stuffed inc Pookie Pekan and Never Up (albeit his first run after long time off). He’s only 3lb higher here.

In effect I’m taking a 12/1 toss of a coin as to whether he’s here to run his race I thought – as if he does, he’d go very close to winning. The yard are also in much better form than even 18 days ago, 4/20,7p, having been 0/27,2p in the 16 days prior. They may also go a more sedate pace here which could help.

Anyway – he may be struggling early and tailed off, as it isn’t game day. I couldn’t be with the shorties and thought they may be worth taking on albeit getting x3 7/2< shots beaten is always a tall order.

Le Frank is the obvious one as he’s progressive but does have stamina to prove in conditions over fences (bred for it though) and is up 8lb – that wasn’t a great race either. But he would be the one I like most of the fancied ones. Russel is only 4/85 with her distance move horses in the last two years (moving 20%+ in trip either up or down).

Pookie Pekan looks short enough esp as his better form is on better ground and he’s a big weight to lug around. And as per LTO his jumping can be scratchy.

Never Up could take this but i’ll take on/won’t be with these short priced Smith runners until they have some winners, now 0/44 in the last 30 days – many may have needed it but they are running as if deeper problems. She will start having winners soon and her last three runners have gone much better – so maybe today is the day they start firing.

I could leave McCain’s albeit he’s unexposed. He has questions and they swop the headgear again. Risky at 6s esp as a slog over this trip, over fences, is a question, having been kept to better ground. Maybe it’s what he wants and you can never fully rule out one with this profile. I can leave the other two.

So, we shall see -the selection –  it’s a question of whether he runs his race on his favoured going at a track he likes. If he does he has the form to beat this lot, if he doesn’t, and today ‘isn’t the day’, he may not be sighted. Time will tell.

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Really Super …

It’s a bit of a trek for me to see her today so I’m not bothering and in truth she’s now got a few questions to answer. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if she goes close here however I think she’s well handicapped still – but LTO was a tad abject in a really poor race – I don’t want to hunt for excuses and there’s a chance she’s becoming a bit of a ‘thinker’ – albeit she’s always been that to a point. She was flat when asked LTO which may be mental, and/or it was down to having been on a course of antibiotics – i’ll cling to that. Jack also reported that she never raised a proper gallop as she can – didn’t stride out – which he thought may have been because of the track – Hereford has a few cambers and some don’t balance effectively on it – and being carried out to her left by Kentford didn’t help either.

She’s no real excuses today I don’t think albeit a chance she prefers going LH, however there were not the races for her and we need to run her before it’s proper soft everywhere. We try CP for the first time for us (wore once for Beckett) which may sharper her mind, and at her fences- she’s jumped fine really for one inexperienced. This flat track may help. Amy’s could be going better also, 0/19,1p in the last 14 days.

I think the top two look tough to beat, even if we run our race and money is coming for the Williams horse also.

She is the type who will just rock up one day and fall in at a price I suspect, but i’d be lying if I said I thought that would be today. Hopefully she can show more and leave me pleasantly surprised/shocked!! 🙂 That last run was too bad to be true and a tad deflating. She has the ability to win a race like this though, so who knows! Hopefully she fancies running a nice race today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. Lambourn trainers – All win only selections.

    Hendo – 1.30 KP Versatility; 2.30 KP Morning Vicar.

    Greatrex – 3.40 Car, Symphony Hall.

    Good luck.

  2. I will take on Josh today in the 2.05 KP with Teaser each way. Runs prominently, goes on the ground, has chase wins on the record and the trainer going OK. I understand the point about the jumping issues but this is not the greatest of races and at 12/1 I will make it my NAP of the day, 1 point each way.

  3. just 1 proper bet today,
    Kempton 2-40. Capitaine 7-1 0.5 pt ew
    3 i’ve stuck in a L15 with selection.
    12-55. Ballymountain Boy 5-1
    2-05. Darebin 22-1
    3-50. First Quest 16-1

  4. Thanks all,
    Hmmm… well, deep down we all knew she has runs like that in her, and that was over after 2f or so, knowing her. She just needed her mind making up – CP and Jack’s aggressive attitude over first two, inc giving her a smack, has won that – when she tanks like that you know you’re in for a good run – and some of that jumping. Amy has said she was good at home and she has jumped fine last twice.
    But, I didn’t expect her to do that today really!

    Bloody animals, wish I’d been more bullish for you all, there was a lot of hopeful fence sitting above, but handicapping wise she was entitled to do that.

    1. I think most of us had a few bob on her but I think she should run in a quality race where a good pace is guaranteed.

      1. hmm, on that evidence we would want to try and make all every time! She’s done that because Jack has let her know who was boss early on, and wouldn’t take anything else from her today – in part helped by the CP – but when you gallop, jump and stay like she does over that trip, and for her mentally, being aggressive is clearly a good move – however IF she travels like that, then doesn’t matter if tracking a pace- but yep can see the argument for a stronger pace etc for sure – Amy has always thought she could be up to listed mares level. We shall see – back on track, and we can dream again – I feared it may have been over, chasing wise.

  5. What a performance from the mare and fair play too to jack who really did wake her up after about 100 yards. Delighted also for Connor who dotes on her! Come on Super! The dream is back on!!!

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