Members Daily Post: 10/11/19 (complete)

 

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/120, 41p +36.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

12.55 Ffos Las

BANDON ROCK – 1 point win – 7/1 (WH) 13/2 (gen) UP 9/2 (he will never be backed again, over very early, even for him – clearly not in same form as his return last year)

SUPAKALANISTIC – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/WH/BetfS/PP) 10/1 (others) – UP 9/1 ran well to a point but maybe got stuck in the ground. 

I was never finding the winner there – 11, 0/4 on seasonal reappearance in recent years – but had some solid form on recent runs, but i’ll usually be looking at younger legs. I’ll just have to take that on the chin, a quite abject effort all round. Embarrassingly so. 

 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/47,20p, +18.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ffos Las

3.05 – Pobbles Bay (HcH,micro TJC) w2 ES+ H1 I1 7/4 S3A# 

4.10 –

On The Quiet (HcH,m Hcdeb) H3  5/2 

Astra Via (HcH) 11/2 

 

Sandown

3.30 –

Houblon Des Obeaux (m dist) G1 11/2 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Loose Chips (m runs) G3 7/1 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

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TTP Chase Micros

12.55 FL – Cougars Gold (6/1<) H3 15/2 UP

1.15 Sand – The Flying Sofa (any) H3 G3 7/1 UP

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

V Williams (1/4, +3)

1.15 Sand – Chambard 8/1 2nd 8/1

C Longsdon (12/1<)

12.55 FL – Louse Talk 9/2 UP

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

LTO Winning Trainers 

12.55 FL – Alminar (12/1< guide) 3/1 3rd

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

Write up…

Bandon Rock – I just couldn’t get away from his seasonal return last year where he hacked up in the slop in what was an ok race, producing a career best RPR over fences. This is only his 9th chase run and there could be more to come but in any case 115 wouldn’t have stopped him at Hereford. So i’ve got a chaser who’s won on seasonal debut over fences, and a yard in great form… 5/22,9p in the last 14 days. Bailey also does well here and trainer/jockey are 8/26,11p, +25 here in the last 5 years. This horse does just gallop and stay, generally a sound jumper – IF he’s in the mood he was at Hereford (and it could be he’s best catching fresh now) I think he wins.

Now, he is a ‘character’ and if he isn’t on a going day, i’m in trouble. Well, he may well tail off – had he not hacked up as he did at Hereford on first run back, I wouldn’t be touching him. I judged that at 13/2 it was worth the risk – he does often respond for pressure and hopefully he enjoys himself. He’s gone well at Wetherby before so i’ve not too many concerns around here as such but it is his first run here.

Supakalanistic – he’s the unexposed chaser in this who’s ability over hurdles indicates that he has chases in him, if taking to this discipline. I thought it interesting that some of his best hurdles form has been over 3m, in soft-ish ground and proper soft at Southwell when he won on handicap hurdle debut. There’s some depth to his hurdle form also. Obviously the trainer remains in great form and he does well here, and Bargary is in form – it’s a positive he rode him LTO, albeit Sam is obviously an upgrade. But he wasn’t put in at 5s, but I concluded he may improve for these conditions, and looked worth a go.

He’s jumped ok the last twice – 2m at Warwick was too sharp for him but he went ok, before ploughing through 3 out – he was looked after then, but he was also fresh enough. But his jumping was ok. As it was at Huntingdon – he paid there for staying on the coattails of a frenetic pace, having to hit top speed/gallop a long way out – he was 3L off the lead turning for home, before those exertions took their toll, leading to a couple of ponderous jumps at the last two. He ran much better than the finishing position suggests.

I thought this 3m, slower ground, and slow pace could help produce a much better performance. If this ground is much softer than advertised (a chance, given 20mm rain yesterday) he may struggle, but I thought ‘normal’ soft may help him. He runs like a stayer to my eyes and his mark is looking good. There’s a chance they try and make all/dictate on the front end – if he can get in a rhythm he would out-run these odds.

The dangers…

I can see the case for Steel Native – my two above may both falter – this one would be my next in to pick up the pieces if they do – I don’t think he’s in the same class if they do run their races, but they may not. He loves the mud and enjoys it around here and I suspect he will be fit. He may also benefit from having 11-00 on his back, when the 112-117 horses (covering he top 7) have 11-9-12-00. That ‘actual’ weight in this ground may take a toll on some of them.

I couldn’t have the rest at the prices. Alminar is unexposed but has fitness questions and going questions – i’m not sure he wants a slog. But if he is fit and he does, he would be interesting. Louse Talk is unexposed but I need to see more etc. Mortens Leam- I’m guessing as to fitness so can leave him. I could go on but if one of the others beats me, so be it. I wasn’t near them.

Pace wise… Supa may try and dictate or at least be prominent. He has ‘pace’ for a stayer and if jumping could easily lob along on the front. Brandon Rock shouldn’t be too far away from him.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • I have got to mention i suppose what we are all thinking at the moment regarding Joshes picks in the last few weeks, just been unlucky, the thought process has been spot on, just luck against us. Frustrating as it is at least we get a run for our money and have been in with a shout in most races. Great analysis and here’s to better luck, cheers Josh

    Steven Tucker 09/11/19 7:29 PM Reply


    • Thanks Steven, much appreciated.
      Some of the the thinking has been a bit off, but generally consistent enough, and not many winners leave me scratching my head etc. Some of the placed efforts have been heartbreaking and yep with a bit more luck that profit pile could be a fair bit bigger. In part that’s how it goes, and if it does turn, we should have some fun.
      Still, the figures don’t look too bad but I always want more. Hopefully a good end to the year in next 7 weeks or so. It wont be for the want of trying anyway.
      Josh

      Josh 10/11/19 8:32 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, just an observation about some of your picks that are having their 1st outing. Like Western Rules today, last 2 seasons were no shows. Do you feel that trainers are creatures of habit and prepare their horses how they have previously, maybe novice years, the exception? Richards can obviously get one to win 1st time out but if the horse has no record of doing so why would he suddenly change its routine to do so. I’ve noticed recently that a few of your 1st time out picks have lost, as they had the previous years. Maybe something to consider in the October and November months as the horses get going

    10 lengths clear 09/11/19 9:35 PM Reply


    • It’s always tricky and I don’t like hard and fast rules, but maybe I should with breaks, which I’ve mused on before… Ie they’ve won fresh before and/or are trained by Twiston Davies, and this month, Venetia say. And that’s it.
      Western Rules was beat a long way before fitness was a question. I’ve obv got him wrong but he UR at the first on return last season. Nov 17 he returned after 600 odd days and only got beat 4l. Year before that he also ran well on ground lively enough. Combine that with trainer track record and his record on seasonal debut etc I made a call at the price, incorrectly as it turned out.
      Tricky. Maybe it is a case of proven fresh and said trainers otherwise you stick with those who’ve had runs etc. Albeit in saying that my recent Uttox winner hadn’t won fresh but had gone close and trainer stats good etc. Its tricky.
      Still i’d bite your hand off to repeat those daily totals above forever more in terms of ROI but there’s always plenty to improve on 🙂 would just be nice for the odd 16s+ jobby to go in, but they will at some point. Not sure I’ve ever read these races so consistently say, and the place % back that up, and the profit pile will only head in one direction it they are maintained.

      Josh 09/11/19 10:28 PM Reply


  • I’m on Rathlin Rose @ 10/1 for the vets chase. Form tends to go out the window when running here.

    For any peeps following the mud wallowers without the wood.
    N 3.50 – Dexter Tiger @ 11’s with the odd 12.

    Titus 10/11/19 6:13 AM Reply


  • i'[ll be back later after we know all the n/r’s, abundance of 7 runner races today and probably another couple will be reduced to 7 so it’s bookies heaven and hell for those of us who like to try and find a ew longshot.

    martin whittle 10/11/19 8:44 AM Reply


  • Steel Native Ffos Llas 12:55 1pt e/w 8/1-Thought this one was solid. Has won this two years ago and was 2nd last year both in similar conditions so this has clearly been the plan. Both came of similar breaks. His last win was off only 3lb higher and 2nd won NTO. Tom gets on well with him. Has a wonderful record here overall. Slight concern about the running style but it will matter less in a small field such as this and hold up runners do ok over the course and distance.
    Dark Flame Sandown 15:30 1pt e/w-14/1-The more I looked at this one the more interested I was. He is by far and away the least exposed here with only 11 runs under rules and 6 chases. His last run was when he was 4th in the Sodexo Gold Cup. Now that was over 700 days ago however his 3 best career runs have all come off the back of 200 day breaks. He was 3rd in a novice hurdle to a future 140s horse, he won on the novice chase on his very card the year after and ran a solid race in the aforementioned Sodexo. His trainer is 4/20, 5p with runners in handicap chases off a 300+ break. Furthermore his trainer is 3/5 in Sandown handicaps in the past 5 years which I thought was rather surprising given most of the horses he has are pretty poor and this is likely by far and away his stable star. He is actually been dropped 8lb since that last run so gets to race off a lovely weight. The going is a slight concern but he has won a 3m point on yielding and has placed on heavy so it’s more an unknown particularly at this stage of his career but with everything else appearing to align I thought the price was too big. I will kick myself if Chips does it again and may throw a saver his way but his run LTO was much worse than in the same race the year before so I have a question how much he had left.

    NickM 10/11/19 9:16 AM Reply


    • Very happy with this, went through the race last night and decided couldn’t nail down a serious bet and went with a 5er on DF interesting coming of big break to this race with very decent form, obviously didn’t go into trainer stats and bits but that makes even more of an appeal

      Ryan Mercer 10/11/19 2:40 PM Reply


  • Lambourn trainers – on a roll the past two days.

    Greatrex (who is the hardest to get right) – each way – 3.05 FL, Gangster. Rates highly but may need it a bit today.

    martin colwell 10/11/19 9:32 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    ORIGINAL
    TIP TOP

    No bets today
    Colin

    cleafe 10/11/19 9:37 AM Reply


  • Yesterdays race was certainly exciting.RV was looking strong from 3 out and I thought might pull away but just ran out of puff and then SS came with a late rattle and ten yards he would probably have won but the winner didn’t fold either,fine margins but fun and why we love the jumps.In the moment we forget the times our horse won by a short nose or leader fell at last,all evens out in the course of a season,we will have the odd few that souldn’t have won until the lady intervened

    gearoid180468 10/11/19 10:58 AM Reply


    • Oh for sure, and I’ve backed many a prominent racer/winners who’s benefitted from a mis judgement in behind. Still annoying mind at that price when with a few yards more/finishing speed they would have won, indicating the jockey in the race could have done something different to win. But alas. I haven’t watched it back again yet, but he prob couldnt go the early pace etc and think he may have hit the odd fence. Anyway, as you say that’s racing and over time it does tend to even itself out.

      Josh 10/11/19 11:09 AM Reply


  • Sandown
    2:25 now mcginty

    warren Bottomley 10/11/19 12:32 PM Reply


  • Arrgghh for a 5 quid flyer that’s ended up a bit gutting for Dark Flame because he was there to win that, Charlie D move to the front and stealing lengths on the last circuit has won that there
    A bloody Williams horse aswel first time out !!!

    Ryan Mercer 10/11/19 3:43 PM Reply


    • Yeah I suspect the ground may have cost him as well. Always confident he was likely going to be fit but was much more concerned about that. Still his jumping improved after the first few so no reason they cannot just save him for the final and pray it’s no worse than good to soft. (Although sadly won’t be in the country for that) Alternatively there will be Ascot and Sandown in the spring.

      NickM 10/11/19 3:51 PM Reply


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