Members Daily Post: 09/11/19 (complete)

Videos x2, All tips x4, Test x2, Main tip x2, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily (running totals below) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main(2019: 21/118, 41p +38.8)

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.35 Wincanton 

#1 – SOUPY SOUPS –  1 point win – 16/1 (lad/WH/BV/coral/Boyle) 14s (others) 2nd, agony 

#2 – ROCK THE KASBAH – 1 point win– 10/1 (bet365/WH/BV) 9/1 (others) (14.5 BetfX) UP, ran well for a long way/faded 

That’s all for today. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/47,20p, +18.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#3 1.55 Kelso – WESTERN RULES – 1 point win– 7/1 (WH/BetS/PP) 13/2 (0thers) UP, useless 

#4 2.05 Aintree – COPPER WEST – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) (09.40) UP, also useless 

That’s all for today, as of 09.40 – x4 tips in total as above. Write ups to follow at bottom of post. 

 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Kelso

1.20 –

Niceandeasy (micro runs) H3 G3 5/1

Hastrubal (m runs) G3 7/1 

1.55 –

Clan Legend (m dist) H3 6/1 

Bernadelli (all Hc’s) w2 ES+ 14/1 S3A 3rd

Western Rules (all Hc’s) ES+ H3 I1 G3 15/2 S3A# S4 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

Well Above Par (m going)  9/1 

2.30 –

Ted Veale (m runs) H3 16/1 S2A

Ain’t My Fault (m going) H3 G1 3/1 

Effet Special (m going)  7/1 

305 – Highway Companion (all Hc’s) H3 I3 G1  11/4 S4

 

Wincanton

1.50 – Misty Bloom (HcH) w2 I3 G3 14/1 S1 WON 14/1>6/1 

3.35 – Present Man (m TJC)  6/1

 

Aintree……...None

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TTP Chase Micros

1.55 K – Bernardeli 14/1 3rd / Western Rules H3 I1 G3 15/2 UP ( both any odds)

2.05 A – Oldgrangewood (any) G3 11/2 3rd

3.35 W – White Moon (any) 9/2 UP

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

Venetia Williams*

*a reminder that it is not advised to back any angle in the test zone ‘systematically’ – accept this one! 🙂 If you so please. I do, and have since first researched on here 4 years ago. 1/2, +5 so far this month. 

1.15 W – Enola Gay (any) 10/3 UP

2.05 A – Cepage (any) 7/2 2nd

 

November Trainers 

12.20 A – Paint The Dream (33/1< guide) 16/1

12.40 W – Fiddlerontheroof 5/6 / Who Shot JR (12/1<) 125/1

2.05 A – The Russian Doyen (12/1<) 6/1

2.25 W – Reserve Tank (12/1<) 8/11

3.15 A – Vision Des Flos (12/1<) 10/3

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers

12.20 A – Johnbb (13/2<) 10/1

1.15 W – Bramble Brook (any) 8/1

1.30 A – Lilligton (14/1<) 12/1

3.35 W – Rock The Kasbah (14/1<) 9/1

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20

3.35 W – Just A Sting 7/1

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Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

12.20 A – Follow The Bear 10/3

3.35 W – White Moon 9/2

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

Badger Ales Pointers

From the ‘trends thursday post’ pointers… Not a race to be dogmatic about, stats/trends wise (if they ever are), but looking at those who ran in a handicap LTO, with 1-3 handicap chase wins…

Just A Sting / Rock The K / Beau D B / Sumkindofking / Soupy Soups / Royal V / Wicked Willy

Trainers (to have won race/with runners)

  • White Moon / Royal Vacation
  • Present Man/ Give me A Copper
  • Rock The kasbah/ Beau Du Brizais
  • The Young Master (DQ 2014 race) / Soupy Soups

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No write ups today, a couple of videos instead >>>

10 minute Badger Ales preview here>>>

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Kelso + Aintree Tips

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. I will probably have a couple more in the morning but I wanted to put this one up tonight whilst it’s still an e/w bet:

    Grand Sancy Wincanton 15:00 1pt e/w 4/1-The fav could be the big thing however all he has been so far is 4yr olds who tend to struggle in open company. In the last 10 years only one has won from 17 runners where as 5yr olds have a much better record. Sancy on the other fact has actually won a grade 2 in open company and it happened to be at the track where he has won twice and been second twice from two runs. I thought the gap in price was too big and would have been happy to put him up 1.5pt win at 7/2. Looking at the rest of the race I am struggling to find what else can beat either of the first two in the market and whilst the 4/1 is available this is an absolutely cracking bet to nothing (debated on going bigger) and I would be very disappointed if he was out of the first two.

    1. 4/1 each way!!!!! An accounts restricter if ever I saw one.

      Down to 10/3 now but I can see it drifting once the money comes for the favourite.

          1. Probably but like so many of Hendo’s (and Munir ones often also) he is horrendously underpriced based on talk rather than what we have seen on the track. This happens time and time again. Not that I am complaining as it creates value elsewhere. Different trainer but Torpillo was a perfect example two weeks back. On what they have achieved on the track Quel should never have been the outsider of the two and definitely not 4 times the price and so it was proved.

  2. AW T/T
    A poor night last night (Friday) 2 places only 16s and 22s.

    NO Qualifiers Sat. Typical a boom or bust with runners.

    Mike

  3. Morning,

    I am loathed to do this as I`m out of form and I know Josh is back in form, so, it is with a heavy heart I tip SOUPY SOUPS…. 🙂 forgive me Josh.
    15:35 WINCANTON
    SOUPY SOUPS 16/1 1pt win gen
    I can definitely see the attraction of SS, having tipped him up a couple of times, he is a dour stayer and loves right handed tracks, they have to be flat and tight though, for some reason he relishes the weird and the wonderful, goes on any going and has won at Wincanton before. I believe he is progressing and even though he has had a busy campaign this may be the big prize he has been waiting for, considering he has beaten some of these before the 16/1 looks ludicrous.
    ROYAL VACATION 16/1 gen 1pt win
    Another horse who is a bit of an enigma, if he is on one of his going days though… He will slice this field up! Right handed, flat tracks are his forte, 3 out of 3 on them. He beat the likes of Vicente and Present Man at Taunton in January, which is why I can`t understand why he is priced at 16`s? Suppose that is why he is a bit of an enigma, you never know which RV is going to turn up.The price though is value…
    May have another one later, but, these are the main two.
    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    1. I can see the Soupy Soups angles. I put up Present man at 8/1 on Wednesday on another site to do the trepeat here. Looks an open race though.

    2. Keep at it mate. You’re doing all the right things just a case of getting through the run of bad luck. This is what I went through the first 9 months of this year.

      1. Agonising that, another if only moment, 2nd and 3rd there, so, will not take take umbrage Nick. take out the fancied one i got the value spot on!! Just stopped backing them each way, that`s all.

  4. i gave up with the Wincanton 3.35 last night, the 3 def aimed at this are Present Man, Young Master and Sumkindofking. Sumkindofking surely the wrong price and with jock change if he gets him next to Present Man earlier in the finish then could reverse last year. Rock the Kasbah and Walk the Mill are favs of mine after winning on then last year but think this could be prep for both, although i wudn’t like to see Rock the Kasbah win without any money on him, has won fresh before may even back him small
    Royal Vacation will come on for last run, tough race
    im going to back Soupy soups but straying from normal win bets im going to back e/w

  5. The Young Master Wincanton 15:35 1pt e/w 8/1 4 places 1/5-I think this race is a poor renewal and I found questions about most of these and wanted to be with the solid one. Take out the winner in the 365 and he was 9L of the rest which included both the Nicholls runners and Just A Sting. Walk and Rock will likely need it. I am not sure about the class of some of the rest. We know he likes the track he won in 5 years ago before being disqualified. They appear to be missing most of the rain and even if it hits it shouldn’t be any worse than good/soft. Should be up there from start to finish.

  6. My four for the bin
    A 1.30 – The Last Day @ 5/2
    A 2.05 – Indian Temple e/w @ 33
    K 1.55 – Bernadelli @ 14
    W 3.35 – Just A Sting @ 7

  7. Lambourn trainers:

    2 out of 2 from Jamie Snowden picks yesterday. Today he likes Kalahari Queen in the 1.50 Wincanton. he says that this has been its target for a while. At 16/1 is an each way bet.

    Hendo likes – 12.20 Aintree, Champagne Mystery as a win bet. He says that Fusil Raffles will need the run today. So no odds on mortgage jobs.

    Good luck.

    1. Surely anyone considering a bet on Fusil at those sort of odds needs their head seriously examined and has no business in this game even without that information win or lose.

  8. Seeing Royal Vacation brings back fond memories,having backed it at 40/1 boxing day 2016 and 14/1 at Cheltenham the following month I thought it was a horse with a big future,however never reached those heights,think he had few problems.Maybe his best days are behind him but at 16 looks bit of value in not a great contest.Paddy is having a bit of a golden autumn,has won on horse although doesn’t have a good course record

  9. i think everything i fancy has already been mentioned so i’ll just throw one in from left field,
    Wincanton 1-50. Kentford Heiress 100-1, back over hurdles after chasing so should be fit and if you go back to April she beat Misty Bloom(4lb better off today) by 12l, that was her last race over hurdles and has won a couple of novice chases since but shown nothing in handicap company. it might be clutching at straws but a small ew with 4 places on offer might be worth the risk.

  10. Looking for Rose Dobbin to have a good day at Kelso – Slanelough 13.55, Hitman Fred 15.05 (nap), Le Cheval Noir 13.40 – small patent. Stable closed down last year, has some well handicapped horses GL

    1. All backed in but only one winner, Le Cheval Noir – 8/1 to 7/2 made for a winning bet – Slanelough ran a promising race in 2nd, 11/1 to 8/1, will follow again next time. Hitman Fred, 12/1 to 9/2, was v disappointing.

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