Members Daily Post: 08/11/19 (complete)

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 21/116, 40p +40.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

2.55 – Warw 

#2 – 2.55 Warw – BARBROOK STAR – 1 point win – 13/2 (bet365/Coral) 6/1 (LadB/Betf) WON 6/1 (dec) > 5/1… cosily enough come the line – these fences/inexperience has caught the fav out – thankfully a soft UR for him and he’s fine – but that was one of the chinks, as well as not really knowing how good he was after LTO. Anyway, job done. He could have an ok (decent C3) 3m4f+ chase in him one day. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.46

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/45,20p, +20.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#1 – 3.30 Warw – RIZZARDO – 1 point win – 7/2 – (LadB/Bets/PP/Coral/WH) 2nd, ah, no excuses at all, looked good turning in, thought he may power away but has gone backwards! I’ve read that ok, but tad underwhelmed by R, and you couldn’t back him with any confidence moving forward. Now looks tripless and could have odd issue – but maybe they will find a small race for him. The winner was interesting but with questions over the ground and trainer being 0/31 with 60+ day horses, 5 years, i’ll live with it. But maybe the lesson is to not dip under 9/2 or so!! 🙂 

that’s all for the ‘test’ as of 08.31… write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Fontwell

1.25 – Gonnabegood (micro class) G3 7/2 

3.40 – Tactical Manoeuvre (m class and -class) 2/1 

 

Hexham

1.35 – Glenpark (m class) 13/2 

2.45 – Dontdelay (m dist and going) w2 I3 6/1 UP

3.15 –

Arizona Bound (m class) I3 8/1 

Square Viviani (m going) G3 5/1 WON 11/2 

 

Warwick

2.25 –

Knight Destroyer (all Hc’s,m class) ES+ 12/1 S3A UP

Go Steady (m runs) 13/2 

2.55 –

I See You Well (m class) 33/1 

La Casva Nostra (all Hc’s) w1 H3 13/8 UR

Follow The Swallow (m class) w2 I3 16/1 S2A 2nd 25/1 

3.30 – Carole’s Vigilante (all Hc’s) 9/2 

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TTP Chase Micros

3.15 Hex – Arizona Bound (any odds) I3 8/1 2nd 

 

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Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

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3.Micro System Test Zone

November Trainers 

1.15 War – Whatsupwithyou (25/1<) / Lough Har (33/1< guide) UP  11/1 

4.00 War – Hunny Moon 5/1 / Tequila Blaze (both 33/1< guide)  10/1 UP

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

Trainers

2.55 War – Goodtoknow (10/1<) 14/1 DNQ

 

LTO Winner Starting Points (12/1<) 

2.55 Warw- La Cavas Nostra 13/8 UR

 

Long Lay-Off Trainers

3.15 Hex – Smugglers Stash 10/3 UP

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4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

‘Trends Thursday’ Post (Badger Ales Chase) READ HERE>>>

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Tips Write Ups…

2.55 – Barbrook Star –

This horse is just the wrong price. He should be a 7/2 shot in this line up, if not 3s second fav. Sometimes you look at a race, check the market, and one horse just looks all wrong at the odds, and that’s him in this line up. To my subjective value eyes anyway. I’m building up a history with him, having dotted up for us at Wincanton (easily/big RPR 128/2nd won NTO) and I erroneously tipped him LTO – I was educated guessing a bit to fitness there and he ran as if he needed it. He drops in class here, gets softer ground, and 1f further (it’s 26f with rail movements) and all he does is gallop/stay. The champ is back on and Hobbs is in flying form.

I thought it interesting they return to a track he’s run at before – when he ran here over fences last season it was only his second chase start, on the back of a hard race at Chepstow. He was fiddly at a few, over 3m on good ground, in a race that may have turned into a relative dash. We were on the winner that day and it wasn’t bad form. He has more experience now and has been better since they put the CP on. He has the best chase form in this line up. There’s also a chance Dicky tries to make all or in any case tracks Venetia’s if they go forward (albeit a stamina niggle/they may hold onto him a tad). In an ideal scenario he will try and stretch these, he will jump well, and he will put the fav under pressure…

The dangers…

I do think this is a two horse race and I have put £5 for fun on the 12/1 forecast, no. 8 to beat no. 3. I can see La Cavsa Nostra bolting up again for sure, these two clear of the rest… however, I did want to take him on – while he did it well LTO, on ‘the figures’ , especially Inform Speed, it wasn’t great. There’s a chance the form isn’t bombproof however you’d have to conclude he’s still well handicapped. But that was his first run back, he returns only 10 days later here, and he may feel it. A 3m+ chaser always has a hard race to some degree, however easily they may appear to win. This is also a different jumping test, esp for one so inexperienced – the fences down the back can catch some out, esp if you get out of sync with them, and Sam Waley-C now jumps on, in his Dad’s colours. Maybe it’s foolish to take them on and maybe EW is the play, but I don’t have Nick’s ‘EW eyes’ – it’s just not how I play the game and i’m generally no good at EW betting. All or nothing 🙂

Anyway, if Barbrook runs his race he will be in the places. There’s a chance this fav is beatable. There’ s a chance he’s still chucked in. But the selection is also still open to improvement.

I really couldn’t have the rest…

Boughtbeforelunch – he struggles to win and looks a tad ‘dodgy’ when needing to battle – he may not ned to here but he also has stamina to prove in these conditions and the strength of his form is questionable. 7/2 wasn’t overpriced and how the selection isn’t that price also, i’ve no real idea.

Nesterenko – well Venetia is in form and he will be fit no doubt. But he is 10 and 0/7 over fences and I really don’t rate the strength of his form too much. He hasn’t seemed to stay the last twice either, and has questions over 26f on softer ground. It could be it’s what he wants but the only way he’s winning is if the fav and mine under-perform I think.

Cadeau Du Bresil has ability but his profile suggests he will come on for/need the run. I really couldn’t be touching the rest with stolen money and if one of the outsiders takes this, so be it.

I’m on the right horse for me in this. I can see a gallant second to the fav. I can see him leading turning for home and the fav struggling for the reasons discussed. So, it’s a play.

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3.30 – Rizzardo –

This may well be the last 7/2 shot I ever put up – i’m much improved in the 4s-6s range which is an area I never used to touch but have done ok there, and in smaller fields you have to adjust the price points down. I agonised for a while over this price – it was either him, or leaving the race – but my assessment of the rest helped strengthen his case. I thought he should be 2/1-5/2 Fav in this line up.

Now, he raced in La Cavsa Nostra’s race above – and those fears over it potentially not being great form, may be realised. But the selection is racing against lesser opposition today. He ran well there – he travelled well, and settled better when Sam took him to the front- they may try the same again, esp with this drop in trip – 17f has seemed too short, that 26f maybe too far. This ‘could’ be ideal. He jumped really well there for one so inexperienced and there is much more to come.

In that Chepstow race you had the winner, who now races off 115 and may rate much higher in time (hopefully not today!)- he had the 120 chase rated Len Brennan in front, who’s a solid yardstick and dotted up hard held in a weak novice hurdle yesterday. Christmas In April was second, a solid 119 horse who’s also unexposed still. The front 4 were miles clear and the selection was in front for a way. He also has a fitness edge, Twister is still flying along, and Jordon Nailor is in form and should be riding with confidence. I’d prefer Sam on but he is competent, and he’s got a good book of rides at Fontwell, as he chases winners. Nailor’s 7lb off will help, albeit Sam is at least 7lb better over fences if not more. Still, a ‘mark’ of 101 looks workable.

Of the rest… well they have questions.

Adnam Sam is interesting but he’s left Ian Williams and wherever a horse goes after that yard would usually be a downgrade. Dave Roberts is 1/31 with runners in the last year, 0/12,4p with those 60+ days, and at 5s or so I could leave. Softer ground is also a big question for him, as is the level of his form, albeit this trip should suit better and Lee Edwards is riding well, albeit 1/29 around here. It wasn’t the sort of profile I could wade in at 5s.

Broughtons R is interesting but he was 7/2 when I was looking and is on the drift (which I hope means he will come on for the run – albeit he was going well on return last season when UR at the last) – however he is 10, he’s 0/9 over fences, he has stamina to prove, and Leighton Aspall is at Fontwell with some fancied ones. All of that made 7/2 seem short, he’s now 6s in places.

Ben Case’s horse seemed short on first run in 216 days, put in as fav. He’s unexposed but you’re completely guessing as to fitness, and his trainer is only 2/54 with 60+ days off runners in the last two years. He may win, but he can beat me at 5/2 and the sort I’m happy to take on at those odds.

Carole’s V – is interesting to a point but didn’t seem overpriced – needs to show more albeit this mark is looking workable and Mulholland may work his magic – he trained this one before he went to Harry Whittington’s . But again, guessing as to fitness and that makes 5s look short enough. Even if he’s fit, he needs to show much more, but is lightly raced.

If Vocaliser wins, i’ll cry. Well I won’t, that would be rather sad – but the wheels seem to have come off and i’ve no idea how I could support him until showing much more. This trip may suit better but he’s got a wellbeing question now, and going LH over fences. And he’s ‘exposed’ – he’s not open to improvement, more a case that he’s now well handicapped against old form and you’re hoping he will return to that level on day – IF he ran to his best, he’d probably obliterate this lot, but I wasn’t sure why he would. If he was resurrected, and many above him don’t run their race, he could go well. But surely not.  Dickin is 2/91 here in the last 5 years, 5/130 with all runners in the last year – so obviously, with those stats, he’ll now be hacking up! 🙂

Rizzardo is the one. Hopefully Jordan bounces him out and races him up there, he pops away, stretches turning for home, the rest fall in a hole, he pops the last and is eased down, jockey looking around for dangers. Time will tell.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • AW T/T
    Fancy Footings did the business yesterday winning at 14/1. Only bet of the day.

    There are a few today.
    4.35 N Rey Loopy Haslam Hcps..25/1
    6.05 N Epeius Haslam Hcps..14/1
    6.35 N Ritchie Star Haslam Hcps..14/1
    7.05 N Dream Mount Comacho Dist..16/1
    7.35 N Pinarella/Uponastar Haslam Hcps..10/1
    7.45 D Theobald Bolger Dist..9/2
    8.15 D Cocohulababy Meade Hcps..11/1
    8.45 D Grinn Bolger Dist 8-10.5 this is 50yds further?

    Good luck with those.

    Mike

    mickeydee 07/11/19 7:49 PM Reply


    • Thanks for posting those Mike, much appreciated – don’t suppose you’re keeping a running p/l with prices you get, or look at? 🙂 So that’s 20/1>10s and 14/1 winners so far, and a fair few losers no doubt…

      It will be interesting to see how they get on as a portfolio/back all etc – may not work out as such and I couldn’t advise anyone to do that at this stage – but that approach/template may give me some food for thought for next year’s TTP Flat stats. The idea of looking at all handicaps (exc nursery) and those 4 angles – in general the stats are much more substantial and indicate clear behaviour over a long enough period (5 years). Hmmm.
      Josh

      Josh 08/11/19 7:52 AM Reply


    • Josh
      Seems I have missed one for tonight.

      7.05 I know how Comacho Dist..currently 28/1

      Know time to reply to you today apologises golfing!
      I haven’t really kept a p/l just a list of winners. I will from yesterday onwards on a weekly/monthly basis. Could b a demolition job tonight with so many selections. Hope not.

      Mike

      mickeydee 08/11/19 5:19 PM Reply


      • most of them had questionable form chances to my eyes, but it is the AW!!

        Josh 08/11/19 5:21 PM Reply


  • Woke up feeling like crap so no write ups:
    Bonza Girl Fontwell 14:35 1pt e/w 8/1
    Barbrook Star Warwick 14:55 1pt e/w 7/1
    Cap Horner Fontwell 15:40 1pt e/w 17/2

    NickM 08/11/19 8:02 AM Reply


    • Another nice pick in Barbrook. Well done and thank you to both you and Josh
      Danny

      freezing1 08/11/19 7:26 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    3.30 Warwick Vocaliser 14/1
    7.35 Newcastle Oriental Lilly 9/1
    7.55 Chelmsford Wild Flower 7/1
    ORIGINAL
    5.55 Chelmsford Jeannie B 8/1
    Colin

    cleafe 08/11/19 10:10 AM Reply


  • TIP TOP
    2.25 Warwick Karakoram 13/2
    4.35 Newcastle Star Shield 6/1
    ARUBA
    No bet
    Colin

    cleafe 08/11/19 10:11 AM Reply


  • Hexham
    2:10 generalization
    3:50 Thomas MacDonald

    Fontwell
    3:05 Deja vue

    Dundalk
    5:45 sherdana

    Chelmsford
    5:55 Jeanie b
    6:25 provocation

    Newcastle
    6:35 troop
    8:05 Vallarta

    warren Bottomley 08/11/19 10:44 AM Reply


  • Lambourn trainers – Jamie Snowden win only:

    3.05 FP, Early Morning Run.

    3.40 Sed, Thomas Macdonagh.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 08/11/19 10:58 AM Reply


  • up and out very early today but have the rest of the day to myself so have been able to have a proper look today so have had a few bets.
    all 0.5pt ew unless stated.
    Warwick.
    2-25. Star Of Rory 10-1 bv 4 places, c&d winner in same conditions back in March worth another go.
    2-55. Barbrook Star 6-1 1pt ew, missed early price and Josh has done the write up on this one so will just mention 3 at big prices that might be worth a tiny ew Bells of Ainsworth 25-1, Oneida Tribe 25-1 and Follow the Swallow 22-1
    Hexham.
    2-45. Tricky little contest with Dont Delay and Triopas holding good chances, The Horsechesnut can’t be written off but i have a sneaky feeling for Pistol 14-1 down in class and upped in distance.
    3-15. Surely Letemgo 9-2 has a race of this type in him
    Fontwell.
    1-25. Gonnabegood 7-2, looking past his pu last 2 times out must be the one to beat on previous form.
    2-35. I’m with Nick in this one Bonza Girl 8-1, goes well fresh and has everything going for it today
    3-40. Cap Horner 8-1 is my choice, i do like Love The Leader but i think CH has just the edge in class.

    martin whittle 08/11/19 12:10 PM Reply


  • Afternoon Josh

    I’m off to Sandown on Sunday, any chance of a thru the card?

    Cheers

    Jim

    James Gilbert 08/11/19 1:53 PM Reply


    • Hi Jim,
      Possibly! Drop a reminder on Sunday’s post whenever it goes up – i’ve no plans in the morning bar staring at horses 🙂 Flicking through shouldn’t be a problem, but remind me in due course.
      Josh

      Josh 08/11/19 2:50 PM Reply


      • Cheers Josh

        A Cracking Winner, always a great sign when you and Nick pick the same one!!

        James Gilbert 08/11/19 3:05 PM Reply


        • ha, cheers – yep our SR when agreeing in those races isn’t too bad off the top of my head! Can think of a handful.

          Josh 08/11/19 3:57 PM Reply


  • another nice winner josh,well done on your pick

    william 08/11/19 3:04 PM Reply


  • Yess the boys !!!!
    Well played thanks very much, Dicky strong in the finish there and a willing partner

    Ryan Mercer 08/11/19 3:05 PM Reply


  • That was satisfying on many levels! Well done to Nick also – we chatted about that race last night and my starting point was a tad scared of the fav (with my win only eyes, he was so solid EW, bar a fall was never being out the places there) but i’ve looked again in morning – Inform Speed has helped as the favs LTO figure was woeful in comparison to race, and you need reasons to take on – add in that fact he’s inexperienced and I thought fences down back ‘could’ catch him out, esp without a pro on, and that’s what’s happened.

    It wasn’t in much doubt after that – Dicky’s body language after last suggested he was comfortable, the horse tries and stays all day – he’s only tapped him with whip once. A good result. 🙂

    Josh 08/11/19 3:12 PM Reply


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