Members Daily Post: 07/11/19 (complete:9.44)

write ups – Test tips x2, Section 2 (complete), test zone

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

*

1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 20/115, 39p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/44,19p, +21.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

3.40 Newbury 

CHEF DEQUIPE – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365) 8/1 (BV) 15/2 (others) 2nd, head,  10/1, another agonising one, I think he should have won but you won’t find me moaning at the ride as I knew exactly what I was getting, and built into the price imo. The best horse on the day has come 2nd there I think, the best rider of the two has won. A strange run given he tried to make all, lost position/got outpaced, then stayed on again. I was hoping the winner would fade late there but he hasn’t. 50 more yards and he wins. Another close/frustrating 2nd. 

FORTH BRIDGE – 1 point win – 18/1 (WH) 16/1 (gen) UP 10/1 – that’s him, travelled really well, but when push came to shove, didn’t find much, as is his want. 

Unexposed one won it and no shock, albeit I was guessing as to whether he’d be fit – the yard were in form but he had no record fresh as such, and needed to step up on some of his handicap efforts, inc a PU when last seen. There wasn’t a trainer ‘way in’ either – well King was 0/12,1p with his 60+ day chasers at the track the last 5 years – I was never landing on him today. Happy enough with that. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.27. Write ups at bottom of post…

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Market Rasen

3.50 –

Caro Des Flos (all Hc’s) H3 I3 11/1 

Pagero (micro -class) H3 7/1 

 

Newbury

12.55 – Zanza (m dist and age) w2 H1 9/2 WON 9/2>3/1

3.10 – Daklondike (m class)  22/1 S2A 2nd 40/1 

3.40 – Molineaux (HcCh,m class) L 6/1 UP

 

Sedgefield

1.15 –

Calliope (HcH) H1 I3 6/1 UP

L’Attendue (HcH) w2 G3 10/1 S1 3rd 

4.00 – Summer Lightening (HcH) 30 18/1 S2A UP

*

TTP Chase Micros

3.30 Sedge – Two Hoots (any odds) 10/1  UP

 

*

Please Read: All information regarding the members club and how to engage in the content, inc Videos. Inc contact info, research articles and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

November Trainers (see Micro Monday tab) 

1.30 Newb – Banana Joe (25/1<) 50/1 DNQ/ Katahdin (12/1<) 4/1 UP 

1.40 MR – Crossgalesfamegame (33/1<) 14/1  WON 14/1>4/1 

2.05 Newb – Highest Sun (12/1<) 16/1  DNQ

4.15 Newb – Jovial Spirit (25/1<)  33/1  UP

 

Autumn Trainers 

C Longsdon 

3.40 Newb – Forth Bridge (12/1<) 14/1 UP 10/1 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.40 Newb – Molineaux (any) L 6/1 UP

 

Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

2.55 Sedg – Len Brennan (reverting to hurdles) 1/3  WON 1/4 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

‘Trends Thursday’ Post to follow later this morning.

 

Tips Write ups…

I thought this looked an open race and I didn’t like anything near the top. The market would suggest that the Skelton horse may bolt up – he’s certainly interesting and on the strength of his form looks well handicapped. However, he ‘may’ need the run, he needs to prove he stays, and that he handles cut in the ground. On the flip side to that he’s unexposed – he may be fit, he may relish the trip (esp as he’s older/stronger now I suspect) and he may relish the ground! I couldn’t be with him at 4s which I thought was short enough- the decision then is whether to leave the race or take him on – and as is my want, i’ve gone for the latter. He may blow this lot away, but if he doesn’t, it’s open…

Chef D’Equipe – he’s lightly enough raced over fences and came second in this race last year, behind Siruh Du Lac, which is solid form. The front 4 there were clear. I think this mark is fine, conditions look ideal, he generally travels and jumps superbly (Maxwell has a few flaws in a finish compared to pros, but he generally sets a horse very well at a fence and they jump for him) and Hobbs is in great form again. There’s a chance this has been the plan and he badly needed it LTO. Of course he may just be out of form but at 8s or so I thought he was worth chancing in this line up. If he repeated his run in this last year he’d go close.

Forth Bridge – he looked well worth a go at 16s, which seemed a tad insulting. He’s a bit mercurial and you’d always want a price but when on a going day/it all drops right, he does have some talent – as evidenced by his win at Kempton – when he bolted up, recording a decent RPR and giving the impression this mark may be within reach. I’d like to think he badly needed his run at Perth, where he also lost a shoe and i’m not sure he stays 3m – he wasn’t too far away from them as they turned for home. In what I thought was an open race, (poss depending on what Skelton’s does) where many may not run their race/could need it/also have questions, he looked worth some support. That Kempton win came from a change of tactics, holding him up and delivering late – this race could set up for him if plenty need it/fall in a hole up the straight. We shall see. They also try a TT here. If he isn’t nibbled back in to 12s<, it may be 1 point loaned back.

Of the rest…

Well I’ve mentioned the fav, who’s unexposed, well handicapped but has fitness to prove, as well as going and stamina. Were he 6s/8s or something, you’d flip the argument around and muse that he may improve for conditions etc.

Anyway – the others –

Dustin De Mottes – he’s solid but I felt like 6s was about right, especially as I was guessing as to fitness a bit. There’s more to come from him you feel and this is easier than his last two races. He’s ran in some hot enough races and could have an ok pot in him when it all falls right.  A big run from him wouldn’t surprise me but 6s wasn’t big enough for me. But I may have him wrong.

I thought Azzerti, Air Navigator and Molineaux all had plenty of questions at their odds and was more than happy to leave them. I couldn’t really have the rest either.

In the end I narrowed it down to Skelton’s, Newlands and the two selections.

Fingers crossed they both run their races.

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. It may be Williams time in the mud but its also prime time for karl Burke on the sands when Martin,myself and a good few others have a feast with his runners.
    The area I concentrate are his 3yr olds that are unexposed on the surface maidens and novices,but also anything that looks overpriced 10/1+
    He has 2 tomorrow
    Hareem Queen has course form and tick all the boxes but at 2/1 is not a betting proposition
    Sylviacliffs 7.10 25/1
    Has course form but yet to win at distance.Jockey has had a few course wins.Its aw racing so no point pondering much on form etc
    For the 3/4 seasons following Karls aw runners,can’t remember him being in such a rich vein of form,a solid 4/16 in last 2 weeks.hope it keeps on rolling.This one may be backed or may drift out to 40/1 but the big priced ones keep dropping in.

    Roger Fell is another trainer I follow at Southwell but is out of form at the moment s will wait until he has one on the board first

  2. Zanza Newbury 12:55 1.5pt win-I thought this one ought to be a couple points shorter. Won a class 2 in pretty much identical conditions over course and distance two starts ago on his final start last season (we were on the 2nd). The form of that race has been franked with the 3rd winning twice since. With the jockey claim he is only 2lbs higher. I thought last time out he looked to be making steady headway before a lack of fitness told in a much stronger race than this and Dickie soon pulled him up. (Could have also been the longer trip) Our Merlin always tends to need his first run back so I think he will confirm his form with him. Hobbs is flying right now (4/11, 5p in last 7 days) and I thought this one should take plenty of beating.

    1. Nice work mate – those ‘shorty value eyes’ working a treat! 🙂 That wasn’t in doubt from some way out to my eyes.

        1. What was the other one?? Today?
          Maybe I need to start tracking these properly, or rewarding one of you to do it 🙂 Albeit I can just look back in HRB in a few months time etc.

          But anyone who posts quals is much appreciated.

          There could be something in that ‘new’ approach to ‘flat’ TTP.
          They are well in profit already, must be, that winner, 20/1>10s the other day.
          Josh

          1. The other one was Nov Trainers. Cheers for that too Josh. It’s been quite productive round here recently. Onwards and upwards.

  3. Lambourn trainers:

    Warren Greatrex likes the following each way:

    1.30 Newbury, Young Lieutenant, 6/1 at present.
    1.40 MR, Miss Honey Ryder, 11/2 at present.

    Hendo, ignoring the short ones;

    1.30 Newbury, Steal A March each way, 6/1 now.
    3.10 Newbury, Diable Du Rouhet win, 3/1 now.

    Good luck.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.