Members Daily Post: 06/11/19 (complete:8.23)

No tips , Section 2 (complete), test zone, Tracker T

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 20/115, 39p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

None.

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/42,18p, +23.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

None.

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Nottingham

3.35 – Ebitda (all Hc’s,micro class) H1  11/4 

4.05 – Deinonychus (3yo+) w2 H3 I3 G1 4/1 S4  UP

 

JUMPS

Musselburgh

3.25 – Gripper (m TJC) 20/1 S2A UP

3.55 – Lastofthecosmics (HcH) 22/1 S2A 3rd 20/1 

 

Chepstow……….None

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

V Williams (any odds) (1/1, +6) 

3.10 Chep – Espoir De Guye * 13/2  2nd – does need further on that evidence, surprised he finished 2nd, definite stayer in the making.  Probably won’t be missed NTO if upped in trip. 

*as per the not a couple of days ago, this angle has been a standing dish for a while on here and if you’re to back one ‘test zone’ micro systematically, this should be it in my view. The rest are a ‘way in’ if you like finding your own pokes. 

 

Chase Angles 2019/20

Trainers 

3.10 Chep – Vado Forte (13/2<) 8/1  UP

1.15 Muss – Catch My Drift (any) UP

 

November Trainers (as per Micro Monday post) 

1.35 Chep – Buckthorn George (12/1<) 40/1  DNQ/ Silver Halmark (33/1< guide) 4/1  WON 4/1>7/2

2.40 Chep – Good And Hardy (33/1< guide) 6/1  3rd 3/1 

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Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20

2.20 Muss – Electron Bleu (reverts to hurdles) 8/1 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

NEW: Tracker Tuesday post HERE>>>

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Don’t forget my TTP Winter All-Weather stats for those of you who like betting on the ‘sand’  – I believe they had a 20/1>11/1 SP winner yesterday… CLICK HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. today’s horses of interest,
    Chepstow.
    2-05. On The Road
    2-40. Duel At Dawn
    3-10. Vado Forte
    Nottingham.
    12-50. She’s A Unicorn
    3-00. Show Palace
    4-05. Deinonychus, Bombero
    Musselburgh.
    3-20. Duck Egg Blue , if she agrees to run 🙂
    3-55. Fisher Green

    1. i backed
      2-05. On The Road @9-2
      12-50. She’s A Unicorn @5-2
      4-05. Deinonychus @5-1
      3-20. Duck Egg Blue ew @ 28-1
      the rest and these are in a couple of L15’s

  2. 0/6 1/nr
    Musselburgh
    2:20 chanceanotherfive
    3:55 let’s sway

    Dundalk
    3:20 Cardinal rule

    Kempton
    8:10 passing clouds

  3. AW T/Trends produced a 11/1 sp winner and a 10/1 2nd yesterday I did both the previous night and got 20/1 and 33/1 respectively.
    3 for today
    Corinthaia Knight 6.40K..7/1
    Whisper Aloud 7.10K..0/30
    Bambys Boy 7.25 W..10/1

    Mike

    1. Yep thanks Mike – just had a quick flick through those and Whispering Aloud looks most interesting to my dodgy All-Weather eyes! With any luck a winner there somewhere. She’s a CD winner who could get an easy time on the front end, and may appreciate the return to 7f – fit, in form. Time will tell!!

      I will review those angles in Feb time or so and see how they’ve got on to BFSP, unless anyone is keeping proper records which I don’t have time to do – but may ensure an xmas gift! 🙂 – but that ‘all handicaps’ and more focussed approach may be something for me to consider for next year’s Flat Turf TTP.

      Josh

  4. Hi Josh

    It will be interesting to see how the Williams horse gets on in the 3-10 Chepstow as one of our syndicate horses is also in the race He’s No Trouble having his first race over fences, I do not know who was the better hurdler but should be a good race I have backed both we will see

    Peter

    1. Best of luck Peter –
      It does look a hot chase with some ‘nice types’ – could be a novice handicap chase to keep an eye on.
      I’ve backed Venetia’s, as I do them all in that angle – and i’ve no doubt he ‘could’ be chucked in – he stayed on, 7L , in that novice hurdle behind the subsequent Silver Trophy handicap winner for Skelton, off 130.
      This is only the 5th run of his life it seems, inc France . whether he has the experience, time will tell. He was 8s last night, 13/2 this morning is prob about right but I don’t make ‘value’ calls with systematic angles unless too short etc. I’ve no doubt he will decimate a mark of 120 at some point over fences – he’s related to chase winners.
      2m around here in soft may be fine, I suspect he will stay much further but Charlie may be aggressive. He will be fit. If he jumps and holds a position/can kick 3 out, he won’t be far away.
      But a few nice sorts, in the ‘could be anything’ camp, including yours – and I suspect a few connections are excited going into this race. Does feel open but they may not all be sharp etc

      Best of luck, Josh

  5. Hello all

    Just having a clear out of some clutter in the house and came across an old racing book by Chris Forwood who used to write racing pieces for the Daily Mirror. It contains an interesting AW handicap system to whit: on any poly track course back any horse in any handicap carrying a penalty that won its last race by two lengths or more. It claims that over an eleven year period it returned 183 winners from 585 runners (31.3% profit) with £58.11 returned to presumably £1 stakes.

    Obviously this quite old now but I was wondering if anyone with HRB fancied running it through the system to see if it still holds water, and whether a systematic betting approach could be used or merely as a starting point in handicap analysis?

    If anyone has the time or inclination I would be very interested in the outcome.

    1. Like it. Sounds like a bit of back fitting by someone but it is always interesting to see how these ‘systems’ go.

    2. Hi Mark
      Well i love methods but a return of 5.282 points per AW season hardly seems worth the bother!

      Clive Holt had a method Principal Meeting with Handicapper carrying a penalty, cannot recall his points claim but sure it would be way above Chris Forwoods mediocre points tally.

      If anyone as the capability to go back a few years am sure it will still be successful.

      Mark sure you and George are more points up than 5.282 this AW season so far.

      Colin

    1. Mark to polite 58 points divided by 11 = 5.282 per season you said that 58 points over 11 seasons, so pretty poor overhall, have you got it now!!!!
      Now the 58 points was the profit made over 4 seasons meaning the other 7 seasons lost, who knows and who cares it returns are garbage, typical newspaper journalist following them you will be in the poor house.
      All the best
      Colin

    1. Hi Mark,

      I wouldn’t bother with such an approach in truth – those sorts of horses are rarely going to be missed by the odds compilers etc, they are just too ‘obvious’ and the stats back it up…

      Well, with your system rules… so Polytrack (all bar Southwell in UK) , handicaps, carried any sort of penalty…

      Since 2003>

      Those who won by 2-3 lengths only: 152/518, 301p, 29% sr, +52 SP… but the A/E is 0.99 – indicating that a) results may be down to a few decent priced winners b) they won’t be profitable to follow long term.

      Those who won by more than 3 lengths….
      -69 to SP, A/E 0.88.

      I wouldn’t spend much more time on that sort of angle imo.
      It isn’t back-fitted – there’s plenty of logic for why that sort of angle may work, but it just doesn’t now, if it ever did.

      Josh

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