Members Results Update: OCT 2019

Members October/year to date results update

Members Club Results Update (my Tips/advised strategies): OCT 2019/year to date

 

Master Spreadsheet…

READ HERE>>>

(this NEW spreadsheet tracks my main chase tips, test tips and a selection of strategies/starting points) 

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My Tips

Daily Chase Tips (main)

These tips focus on staying chases (2m7f+), class 4 and above.

OCTOBER 2019

14 bets / 0 win/ 4 places / -14 / -14 BFSP

2019 Total

These results date from 22nd Feb, which is when I decided to go back to basics and focus on the staying chasers and not distract myself with other tips, including various other ‘tests’ I was doing across all race types. A few months later I’d also ditch any attempts at tipping across all codes, including the flat. These efforts drained me mentally resulting in a negative impact on all my tipping efforts. I now just focus/specialise on handicap chases and the big Jumps Festivals. The blog started with me looking at handicap chases, mainly staying races, and this move has been positive so far.

So, results since 22nd Feb to End OCT 2019

93 bets / 19 wins / 35 places (inc wins) / +50.8 points (advised) / +50.8 (advised/bog) / +47.1 BFSP 

The 1st of Jan to 21st Feb 2019 results for my ‘daily tips’ before refocusing… 0/15,2p, -16 points. This was on the back of a horrid middle/latter part of 2018, again where I was trying to be a jack of all trades, ending up a master of sod all. 🙂

So, in 2019 All my members’ main daily tips are:

108 bets / 19 wins / 35 places (inc wins) / +34.8 (advised/bog) / +28.7 BFSP 

 

Daily Chase Tips: TEST

My main handicap chase tips above (2m7f+, c4+) are the core focus however I’ve started looking at handicap chases over shorter distances, to see if I can become a general ‘handicap chase specialist’. This won’t be to the detriment of those races above, but there are days when a chase over shorter will be a better betting proposition than those above, and it will allow me to dabble in some more of the big Saturday handicaps.

There isn’t much to report so far, however since the 14th July when this test started to End OCT >>>

37 bets / 5 wins / 16 places/ +12.3 (adv) / +11.6 (BFSP)

 

A game of fine margins... in October there were three or four close 2nd places that on another day would have won. There’s was a neck second at 20/1, who’d have won but for fluffing the last, as well as another who may have won but for clouting two from home. Another received a questionable ride and just run out of track. 

Thankfully November has started well… all my tips adding +14 points in the first three days of the month. 

All daily tips inc the ‘test’ on +77 points since 22nd Feb. 

 

Advised Strategies

As a reminder these strategies stem from my Trainer Track Profiles qualifiers detailed in Section 2 of the daily members’ posts. Many members use the members content, including stats qualifiers and tips, as starting points for their own study. However, there are a handful of systematic ‘strategies’ which can be backed over time successfully, or again used as starting points.

(S = ‘strategy’) These codes are added next to qualifiers on the morning of racing so you know if a horse is a strategy qualifier or not. No need to get your head around the rules for when a horse is a qualifier or not, albeit i’d always advise doing so.

2019 to date, as of END OCT

Jumps S1: 100 bets / 9 wins / 17 w|p / -1.15 (8am prices/bog)

Jumps S3A# : 78 bets / 17 wins / 35 w|p / -2.175.825 (8am prices/bog)

Flat S6: 138 bets / 13 wins / 32 w|p / -7.55 (8am prices/bog) / -1.28 BFSP

 

These three main strategies have yet to hit the heights of 2018 yet, collectively bobbing around 0 to -10 points. Not disastrous but clearly disappointing.  There’s still two months of the year to go where Jumps 1 and S3A# may spark into life.

Jumps S1 and Flat S6 are ‘bigger odds’ strategies, with low win SRs but historically very good profits. These big profits can depend on a handful of big priced winners through the year which as yet haven’t materialised, but still time.

Jumps S3A# remains solid with fewer bets and a higher win SR. Had a few more of those placed horses got their head in front it would be looking decent, however hopefully it creeps up to +50 points before the year is out.

If you wish to follow just one of those strategies, Jumps S3A# isn’t a bad place to start, and is certainly a good ‘way in’ if nothing else.

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As per last months results update, there’s a couple more strategies which have been ticking along, that may be worth considering, if nothing else as a ‘way in’.

Flat S4

Taking 2019 to: 108 bets / 27 wins / 51p / +35.825  (8am prices/bog)

Jumps S4

This strategy returned in September, having had the summer off, so there should be qualifiers in the weeks ahead, through to the end of April 2020.

From Jan 1st to End April 2019: 100 bets / 30 wins / 57 places (inc wins) / +38.51 (8am prices/bog)

September/October:  15 bets / 2 wins / 8p / -0.75

Hopefully this one continues to tick along also.

Both Flat and Jumps S4 had a quiet time in 2018. They were just about profitable. I’ll reassess them come the end of the year, but it could be they are worth considering ‘systematically’ again for 2020. Time will tell but in any case they’re certainly a great ‘way in’ for finding bets.

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‘Starting Points’

Jumps W1 + W2 

If you like using the Section 2 stats qualifiers as a ‘starting point’ you could focus on those qualifiers that won LTO (w1) or won two starts ago (w2), to help with shortlisting possible bets.

In 2019 so far, to end of October:

w1: 199 bets / 44 wins / 88p / -3.4 (8am prices/bog)

w2: 198 bets / 42 wins / 71p / +25 (8am prices/bog)

As a ‘way in’ for further analysis they’re not a bad place to start, as they do home in on plenty of winners.

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Micro System Test Zone 

‘Twister Season’ 

My ‘Twister Season’ (Nigel Twiston-Davies, September/October) micro angles had another good year. I re-worked them this season but they’ve been profitable every year i’ve posted them. Next season I may be firmer in advising to follow them systematically. 

Micro 1: 5/16, 9p, +10 BFSP 

Micro 2: 4/26, 12p, +17 BFSP 

Micro 3: 2/4, 4p, +4 

Micro 4: 3/5,5p, +7 BFSP 

51 bets / 14 wins / 30p / +38 BFSP 

 

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Any questions, please do fire away! 🙂

Josh

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