Members Daily Post: 05/11/19 (complete:9.47)

Write ups -Main tips x2, Test tip x1. Section 2 (complete), test zone, new posts

1.My Tips

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

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1.My Tips

Daily Chase Tips: Main (2019: 20/115, 39p +34.8) Jumps Festival Tips (2018:+143; 2019: 6/99,27p, -45.8,)

Daily Chase Tips: Main

(handicap chases, 2m7f+, C4+)

3.10 Exeter

#2 DELL’ARCA – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/BV/WH) 11/1 (others) UP 20/1 – jumped a bit iffy at times, made a move on the outside swinging for home and I thought may get involved, but flattened out. 

#3 DANCING SHADOW – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen) (12/1 Marathon/NON Bog)2nd, brave run, no complains there, nor losing to the ‘right’ horse – I thought he may have had them on the stretch – I thought he ‘could’ have kicked on at top of straight but unexposed winner was well on top/idling. Happy enough with that race. 

You’d take the winner out of that, and I think Move In Style is one to watch over further. There’s not much else you’d take out of that moving forward. 

that’s all for today, as of 08.42. 

 

Daily Chase Tips: Test (14/07/19>: 7/42,18p, +23.3)

(handicap chases, 16-22f, C4+)

#1 2.10 Exeter – LALOR – 1 point win – 11/2 (bet365/boyle) 5/1 (gen) UP – well he looks gone at the game – well maybe that’s overly harsh, out the back and plugged on – maybe wants further but tricky to trust him until showing more. A good performance from the winner and good placing by connections from that mark. 

that’s all for the ‘test’ as of 08.04. Write ups bottom of post. 

 

2.Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Exeter

3.10 –

Holdbacktheriver (all Hc’s) ES+ 18/1 S2A S3A UP

Moving In Style (HcCh) w2 I1 14/1 UP 7/1 

Le Boizelo (HcCh) 6/1 3rd 

Belle Empress (all Hc’s) 25/1 S2A UP

4.15 –

Ballynough Nora (micro TJC) w1 H3 I3 G3 8/1 S4 (S1 IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Pemberley (all Hc’s) 5/1 

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FLAT… None. 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Autumn Trainers

E Lavelle (14/1<)

3.10 Exet – Belle Empress 25/1 DNQ

4.15 Exet – Pemberley 5/1 

 

November Trainers 

NEW! As per Micro Monday post 

1.10 Exet – Ambion Hill (12/1<) 11/1  DNQ 16/1 

1.40 Exet – Harry Senior (12/1<) 10/3 2nd 

2.40 Exet – Padleyourowncanoe 11/8 UP

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Chase Angles 2019/20 

3.10 Exet – Dinos Benefit (14/1<)  UP

 

Jockey Angles 2019/20 

3.10 Exet – Dinos Benefit 10/1 UP

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Chase Eye-Catchers 2019/20 

3.10 Exet – Forgot To Ask 8/1 UR. 

 

4.General messages/updates/new reports etc

 

Micro Monday Post : READ HERE>>>

 

Results Update: In The ‘Results’ tab, HERE>>>

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Write ups…

2.10 – Lalor…

I may have lost my mind here but i’ve gone with an unexposed Grade 1 winner who has an excellent record fresh, including at Cheltenham when solely trained by KW, after the tragic loss of Richard. (the less said about her behaviour after the better, given the circs – an alleged affair with a jockey, before his death, then parading herself around the media – she’s not very high up on my moral barometer, but who am I to judge)

It could be he is best fresh, or that the wheels have come off, and it will be clear early he needs switching yards. I’d like to think he will be a1 for this and his mark is looking good in the context of this race. He was so impressive in those novice G1s at Aintree over hurdles, then Cheltenham over fences, that it would be nice to see him bounce back. I thought 11/2 was a shade of value in the context of this race.

Of the rest… well I didn’t think the top 3 looked overpriced given they all have some questions, inc fitness, handicap marks etc. The Skelton horse may be the most interesting of those. The handicapper seems to have Janika but if he ran to his mark, provided he was fit, he could take some stopping. Dolos is on a career high mark- he is lightly raced though, esp in handicaps, and could improve further – but the strength of his form is only OK, esp LTO.

I started my analysis thinking I wanted to be with Charbel – but i’ve gone for the more lightly raced one and there are questions over this ground/the trip, and whether he will have the toe turning for home. He also wasn’t that good on return and the trainer has stated that the Peterborough Chase is the target again, this another step along the way. What that means i’ve no idea! He could still need it, he could be fine. The CP return which made me think he’s here to win. In the end I did just prefer Lalor but we shall see. If Bass gets an easy lead on this one, the rest could be in trouble.

The 11 year old God’s Own can beat me this year, we can all cheer him on, but i’d like to think younger legs will have him this time and this looks deeper than last year’s race. He just beat a decent handicapper there, but only that – and a few in here are Graded class. Albeit his run LTO was pretty damn good. He could take it again, but I was happy to leave.

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3.10

I’ve woken up and done a complete U-Turn on this race, from my initial selections anyway, which were Forgot To Ask 8s and Moving in Style 14s, but more on those in a moment.

Dell’Arca

There are some trends for this race which I had a brief look at, to help me justify going with two 10 year olds! Yes i’m taking a slight detour from my well rehearsed long term strategy of ‘unexposed chasers’.

10 year olds are 4/18 runners,5p in the race, from 19 renewals. Martin Pipe trained one of those, and David has won the race also.

This one, like the Gatechecker at Cork, is a mercurial character and had I not pondered on that fact after Sunday’s race, I may not have landed on this one. We shall see whether that’s some inspired reflection or not. In any case I didn’t think he should be more than twice the price of Perfect Candidate based on LTO. Tom Scudamore may make a difference on him here and the Pipes had the winner of that Vets chase at Chepstow and you never know if that’s as close as he was meant to get – and, in the context that he drops into a C3 here – that was a decent race for it’s type. He’s carried big weights and I thought this track may suit, as he’s ‘nippy’ enough for a 3 miler, which may help on the swing for home- this is a galloping track to a point, but there are speedier parts to it. The yard are in form and the horse has a decent record at C3.

I know he’s 10 and had many runs, but this is only his 11th handicap chase. If he’s on a ‘put it all in’ day, and he jumps, he won’t be far away against this lot. I wanted to roll the dice at 12s.

Dancing Shadow

This one was on my original shortlist of four. (Le Boizelo/Forgot to Ask/Moving In Style) I tried to make cases for younger horses but just struggled. This one does just look interesting – he’s a great record fresh, especially around here – both in this race in 2016 and in a novice hurdle in 2017. His runs here in February/April indicated he retains ability. He does seem to like it around here. The yard are just hitting some form and Dicky gets a go – in effect I think he just didn’t have a ride in this and other trainers are using ‘their’ jockeys (BG is obviously retained by JP) – James Best is tied more to Walford’s than Dartnall’s I think- so there was a spare going. His agent would have phoned Dartnall I suspect, and why wouldn’t you want the champ on – especially when your horse likes racing on the front end. I’m hoping he tries to make all here and gets these on the stretch – if he’s 5l clear turning in, having seen off Perfect Candidate – he will take some stopping. 11s gen did seem too big.

The last time Nick and I agreed on one in a 3 mile chase here, he hacked up (Coningsby – you remember the winners!) , so, fingers crossed for a repeat!

I decided I didn’t like the rest at the prices…

The clanger… is Moving In Style... if he wins this you’ll hear my despair from wherever you are. With money for the other Walford one, and Best riding it, I concluded this one may need the run. I thought he’d have the choice, unless it’s an owner’s decision. Sam is an interesting booking but first ride for the yard/on the horse. This could also happen a stride too quickly also, unless they go really hard and the race falls apart. Walford is also 0/12,0p with stable newcomers in the last two years. On the fitness front… he is 3/31, 8p with hncp chasers 181-365 days, but 2/12,6p at Exeter – the fact he has a more fancied one in here makes me question whether he’d have him ready, but I could be wrong. The horse has gone well fresh before, but not so much on seasonal return. I’ve no idea why he’s left Mulhollands. Seems odd.

I think he has a decent staying pot in him, 3m4f+, and could be better than this mark. He travels and jumps so well. Maybe they are eyeing up one of the marathon chases back here.

IF money comes late, I could be in trouble, but with any luck he needs it. I can see the case and hope I haven’t got him wrong. Soft ground is a question for him also. Well he handles it but may be better with some more ‘good’ in it.

Forgot To Ask – I decided 8s was the right price for one who’s unproven on soft (connections have kept him to good, but may have got it all wrong, he ‘could’ relish it) and who also has stamina to prove. It was a close enough call but those things combined made me leave him, and i’ve gone for bigger priced ones. He was an eye-catcher LTO where I mused he may want shorter – but having watched some runs back, I think he may want a test, and he’s been out-speeded, inc LTO where Wincanton may have been too sharp, esp on good/the pace they went- but he probably needed it also. I’m on the fence as to his best trip, but he does need to improve to take this.

I won’t be shocked if one of those two took it, and either would leave me a tad annoyed.

Le Boizelo is interesting but 6s made it an easy choice to leave, albeit the money is a positive. I suppose he’s ‘obvious’ to a point. Bu he’s a bit of a boat and his two wins have been in heavy. However a repeat of his second here behind Achille may be good enough, 7lb less now. He has one of these in him and he will have come on for the run. But he wasn’t overpriced when I looked. A danger for sure.

I could leave Orchardstown who’s inexperienced, ground and fitness to prove, and from this mark. He was 7/2 or so which was short given those questions and is drifting. But he’s unexposed and should have more chases in him this season.

For Good Measure- I can leave him now. He’s up in the weights, has been on the go a while, and is usually ridden patiently. I also think he needs knowing and BG is 0/5 on him. Hopefully the drift is significant. But he’s fit and in form.

Dinos Benefit – she’s far too many questions for me, esp Rh, and over fences in a big field and the level of her form isn’t good enough as yet. I just couldn’t have her, at what was 8s, but clearly trainer/jockey to be feared and she is ‘unexposed’. She’s stamina to prove also, albeit may improve for it but i’d want to see more over fences in a race of this nature before diving in. The same can be said for Belle Empress.

I can leave the others for various reasons, inc Perfect Candidate, who’s now 12 and I can leave him at 5s. That’s short enough for his old legs. But if he builds on LTO he could go well on the front, for a long way.

Fingers crossed. And hopefully i’m not cursing Forgot to Ask or Moving in Style bolting up.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

    1. Well, three i picked out on Sunday and the n narrowed it down to two, guess which one i took out….thought the price reflected his chance..It was just a value price and like Josh I `m now sat here thinking “Am I out of form, not giving myself enough time to study races, is it still fun etc etc..” I didn`t give myself enough time over the weekend and as we all know, you make mistakes and the betting gods make you suffer!!
      Anyways onto today.
      LE BOIZELO
      The price went really quickly and I can understand why, he has no great record fresh, will have come on for that last run and seemed as though he just emptied with lack of race fitness, rather than anything else. Has good speed and is in the top 3 RPR wise, he should run a big race and i had him in around the 11/2 -6-1 mark, so the 9-8/1 at the time was value, like i said unfortunately that has disappeared, but if you can get 7/1 that i would say is still value.
      MOVING IN STYLE
      Lightly raced and still full of beans as far as I can see, transferred over from Mulholland to Robert Walford, but, changed the jockey along the way…which i thought was significant. Tom Scu or Mr Dunne the normal jocks, so, the price, the fact this one can handle most going, is lightly raced, has won a couple of times and has a new jockey on board for a new stable and is a double figure price, all adds up to a Dart as Josh would say…

      1. If you are making me tip one in this race I will go with Dino’s Benefit, 1 point each way at 9/1. He will lead or be up there and pace figures tell us that the front is the place to be in this one. He finished last season well enough and has had a pipe opener to get him ready for this. We will see how he goes in the ground and has in the past run out of steam and pulled up.
        A tricky race.

  1. Ambion Hill Exeter 13:10 1pt e/w-10/1-His bumper form has worked out extremely well and given a combination of that and the fact that jockey and trainer have never been out of the places over hurdles here looked a big price. That improved to 2/3 in non-handicap hurdles recently. Has already been nibbled in the market. Also is on Josh’s micro. I always like to take a David Maxwell fav on particularly on inexperienced horses as he is not a professional jockey.
    Dancing Shadow Exeter 15:10 1pt e/–12/1-Looked a big price. He loves the track and has almost never ran a bad race here. All other conditions will suit also. I think there are plenty of questions about a number of these where as this one ticked all the boxes. Is now 9lbs below his last winning mark and this looks much easier than some of his recent races. Trainer is also in excellent form. Dickie will has him bowling along out front or just off it and the fact that there is plenty of pace his stamina will come into play at the business end.

    1. Hi Nick,
      I hope you are right about David Maxwell today, I used to think the same but the bugger has done me a few times recently. There is no doubt he has improved considerably and he buys good horses. Also he is running at a 33% strike rate over the last 365 days.
      Hugh

      1. Yep, i’ve been disparaging about him in the past, but he’s solid enough now, relatively – he’s done loads of work on his riding and generally doesn’t use the whip now, as that’s caused him to unbalance previously – so he stays balanced and uses his legs/arms.
        I can see the case for taking on at that price, esp with EW eyes – albeit it could be argued if you’re going to back him/not take him on, you’d do it in a novice hurdle (as opposed to a chase) and when he could be on a classy one, whose class may make up for any riding errors.
        Josh

    1. I see that Frankie finished second in the Cup but was demoted to fourth for interference.

      ‘Same old Aussies, always cheating’.

  2. COLINS BETS
    2.30 Southwell Piazon 11/2
    4.05 Southwell Mamdood 7/2
    ORIGINAL
    3.00 Southwell Lilkian 9/4
    4.05 Southwell Mamdood 7/2
    Colin

    1. TIP TOP
      October + 9.77 profit
      ARUBA
      October – 0.375
      must be happy with the results so far in a difficult month with so much rain and
      more rain due over the next 10 days according to the weather reports, so turf racing could well be effected,hooray more AW

  3. Glad you covered the 2.10 Exeter Josh just to get your thoughts
    i landed on Charbel, you’v give him a decent mention
    i cudn’t have Lalor, and i looked at him alot trying to, but too many things wrong for him here. But do agree if its the fresh angle and he’s near the front jumping well then could win comfy

    1. Yep I won’t put you off Charbel, solid.
      Well, the only thing against Lalor is his last 3 runs, where clearly something was amiss/the wheels came off.
      Conditions are perfect for him and his record fresh was the way in, Dicky on as you’d expect.
      He is overpriced IF running his usual race fresh – if he doesn’t/in the same form as when last seen, well it’s 1 point loaned back. I have to adjust my odds criteria/value eyes down in small fields like this -which i’m trying to get better at, with the likes of Baffana Blue who this time last year – well i’d have left the race – just need to cut out the 7/2 shots!! 🙂
      Josh

      1. i thought the ground and the the track possibly both against Lalor after the dissapointing Sandown run last season, if this was on better ground going LH then i think id be on him defo

        1. Maybe the ground not too bad, but i looked on RP ratings like iv heard you mention before and Charbel ran to a level these haven’t reached yet, gets weight off Janika and the CP back on sealed the deal for me, think he’s possibly run his best races going RH aswel
          Does need to be ridden prominently tho as you mentioned at the top, dont always like trying to second guess what a jock will/ should do but Bass been on a good few times so hopefully

          1. Oh i won’t fall off my seat if he takes it – he prob badly needed LTO and yep CP return. Was close enough between the two, anyway.

            I won’t be using RH as an excuse given hurdles run here. Chases obv different but i;m not convinced that was the reason for Sandown, and he’s plenty of form on soft+, inc in that Aintree G1 novice hurdle, for me not to use that as an excuse either – you don’t ‘get away’ with it in races like that imo. I suspect something else was up- i’m hoping the best time to catch him is first couple of runs.
            If Charbel is here to win, he could take some passing if quick enough to hold position.

            Decided i’d be more annoyed if Lalor bolted up though, given his profile.

            best of luck, but not too much. I’ll cheer yours on when mine is unsighted out the back 🙂
            Josh

          2. Arrrggghhh that’s made me mad.
            Just because it sums up exactly where im going wrong, backing a totally exposed 8yr old over the younger horses in the race, who all filled the top 3. Lazy aswel because i didn’t watch any replays on Janika to see if drop back to 2M would suit
            Drive me bloody mad this game
            All easy afterwards anyways !!!!!

          3. hmm, i wouldn’t beat yourself up over him at 4s, 7/2 – some of Hendo’s chasers have been needing it, he was staying on in his Chelt 2m5f runs – yes he’s a strong traveller – I didn’t think he was over-priced necessarily, on paper,in the morning. It did look a tricky race – maybe the play was not to bother! Oh well. We live, and sometimes learn.

            Moving In Style has halved in price, i’m getting my tin hat and opus dei kit ready!

  4. today’s horses of interest.
    Exeter.
    2-10. Lalor 5-1, small saver on charbel 6-1
    3-10. short list of six but if you put a gun to my head Moving In Style 16-1
    3-40. Galactic Power 25-1
    4-15. Crown Hill 30-1 4 places

    a couple at Kempton tonight that look overpriced but as you could put my aw knowledge on a pin head probably worth ignoring.
    7-10. Soar Above 16-1
    7-40. Thresholdofadream 9-1 4 places

    1. I got 20’s last night. They have been doing ok.
      D Shaw at Southall Momtalik 33s last night 2nd at 10s sp.

      3 tomorrow
      Corinthaia Knight 6.40K..7/1
      Whisper Aloud 7.10K..0/30
      Bambys Boy 7.25 W..10/1

      Mike

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